Predict the Wizards Record '14-'15 season

[Illmatic12]

I just don't think you can say we were "fortunate" with the injury bug, when our best defensive player and key offensive weapon sprained his MCL and missed 1/3 of the season. That was a significant injury. Beal only missed 9 games, but he was on a minutes restriction for much longer than that as a result of the stress fracture. Furthermore, both Porter and Rice got injured which prevented them from having a chance to work into the rotation as additional depth.


An example of a team fortunate with the injury bug would be Toronto -- all of their key players (Derozan, Lowry, Valanciunas, Ross, Johnson) played 77+ games.

I don't understand the point of trying to portray that we were fortunate with injuries last year- we weren't. There's definitely room for us to be healthier next season, if Nene doesn't suffer anything major, we get a full season from Porter and Rice, Wittman doesn't run Beal into the ground.

Ill - I think we have to agree to disagree. By the way, your example Toronto was the least injured (i.e. - healthiest) team in the league last year...

http://instreetclothes.com/2014/07/17/2 ... ry-review/

Washington finished 14th with 152 games lost (a majority of which was Otto and to a lesser extent, Nene) in a year when there were a LOT of lost games across the league.

I'm aware that Toronto was the healthiest team, that's why I mentioned them. One thing I've heard/seen Toronto fans saying is that they don't expect to be as lucky with injuries next season, so maybe their 48-wins last year was somewhat of a high-water mark.

It seems you are trying to use that same line of reasoning for the Wiz, but it doesn't apply. Because we weren't lucky with injuries, we lost a key player for 1/3rd of the season. And according to your link, we were right around league average in terms of missed games. That's not particularly fortunate.

I don't think it's likely that we'll be less healthy next year than last. Wall is on a long GP streak and is shedding any "injury-prone" labels. Beal's minutes will be managed better. Paul Pierce has been an ironman throughout his career. Gortat is quite durable. We'll get a full season out of Otto and GR Jr (which could be significant). And Nene usually takes games off here and there, but it's not like he injures his MCL every season. He should be able to play at least ~65 games with his minutes being managed better (due to improved frontcourt depth).

I don't get the reasoning in assuming we'll be hit harder with injuries next season. It seems you are being unnecessarily pessimistic, but that's your prerogative of course. Agree to disagree.

[Dat2U]

Washington wasn't injury free last year. Nene sprained his MCL. Beal had a stress fracture in his leg.

Ill - agree. What I meant was 'major long-term injury free' from our Big 3. Beal missed 9 games whereas Nene missed 29.

I just don't think you can say we were "fortunate" with the injury bug, when our best defensive player and key offensive weapon sprained his MCL and missed 1/3 of the season. That was a significant injury. Beal only missed 9 games, but he was on a minutes restriction for much longer than that as a result of the stress fracture. Furthermore, both Porter and Rice got injured which prevented them from having a chance to work into the rotation as additional depth.


An example of a team fortunate with the injury bug would be Toronto -- all of their key players (Derozan, Lowry, Valanciunas, Ross, Johnson) played 77+ games.

I don't understand the point of trying to portray that we were fortunate with injuries last year- we weren't. There's definitely room for us to be healthier next season, if Nene doesn't suffer anything major, we get a full season from Porter and Rice, Wittman doesn't run Beal into the ground.

I think we were very fortunate. Especially considering the past. Last year seemed to be the first time in a long time that our season wasn't ruined or heavily impacted by injuries. I don't know if that means were due for a long stretch of health or if last year was just a brief reprieve from the usual disaster that strikes all Bullets/Wizards teams.

[Nivek]

When it came to injuries, the Wiz were fortunate in two ways:

1. They happened to guys who weren't their top-level producers last season.
2. The one to Nenê happened during a preposterously easy stretch of the schedule.

The only real injuries were to Beal and Nenê, and both guys rated about average for the season. Webster was an adequate replacement during Beal's absence, and Booker/Gooden more than replaced what Nenê was producing. An injury to Gortat, Ariza or Wall would have been devastating.

[Illmatic12]

Ill - agree. What I meant was 'major long-term injury free' from our Big 3. Beal missed 9 games whereas Nene missed 29.

I just don't think you can say we were "fortunate" with the injury bug, when our best defensive player and key offensive weapon sprained his MCL and missed 1/3 of the season. That was a significant injury. Beal only missed 9 games, but he was on a minutes restriction for much longer than that as a result of the stress fracture. Furthermore, both Porter and Rice got injured which prevented them from having a chance to work into the rotation as additional depth.


An example of a team fortunate with the injury bug would be Toronto -- all of their key players (Derozan, Lowry, Valanciunas, Ross, Johnson) played 77+ games.

I don't understand the point of trying to portray that we were fortunate with injuries last year- we weren't. There's definitely room for us to be healthier next season, if Nene doesn't suffer anything major, we get a full season from Porter and Rice, Wittman doesn't run Beal into the ground.

I think we were very fortunate. Especially considering the past. Last year seemed to be the first time in a long time that our season wasn't ruined or heavily impacted by injuries. I don't know if that means were due for a long stretch of health or if last year was just a brief reprieve from the usual disaster that strikes all Bullets/Wizards teams.

So this is more of just a pessimistic "Les Boulez, #SoWizards, we are cursed, etc" thing than it is an objective or logical thing.. I thought as much.

Objectively speaking, I don't think the group we have now is exceptionally injury-prone or, that it's a lock that our season will be decimated by injuries. But that's just my take

[Dat2U]

I just don't think you can say we were "fortunate" with the injury bug, when our best defensive player and key offensive weapon sprained his MCL and missed 1/3 of the season. That was a significant injury. Beal only missed 9 games, but he was on a minutes restriction for much longer than that as a result of the stress fracture. Furthermore, both Porter and Rice got injured which prevented them from having a chance to work into the rotation as additional depth.


An example of a team fortunate with the injury bug would be Toronto -- all of their key players (Derozan, Lowry, Valanciunas, Ross, Johnson) played 77+ games.

I don't understand the point of trying to portray that we were fortunate with injuries last year- we weren't. There's definitely room for us to be healthier next season, if Nene doesn't suffer anything major, we get a full season from Porter and Rice, Wittman doesn't run Beal into the ground.

I think we were very fortunate. Especially considering the past. Last year seemed to be the first time in a long time that our season wasn't ruined or heavily impacted by injuries. I don't know if that means were due for a long stretch of health or if last year was just a brief reprieve from the usual disaster that strikes all Bullets/Wizards teams.

So this is more of just a pessimistic "Les Boulez, #SoWizards, we are cursed, etc" thing than it is an objective or logical thing.. I thought as much.

Objectively speaking, I don't think the group we have now is exceptionally injury-prone or, that it's a lock that our season will be decimated by injuries. But that's just my take

Eh, if you want to ignore history, fine. that's all I was pointing to. Certainly not predicting impending doom, only saying injuries have ruined many past seasons. Also assuming good health from Nene is probably about as unrealistic as it gets. Nene missing 20-30 games is probably a normal year for him at this stage, the hope is that he doesn't miss more than that or that his production doesn't continue to fall off a cliff (and it has the past two seasons).

[nate33]

I think it's becoming evident that the current Wizards medical staff is doing a much better job with injury management. With that in case, I'm hoping for a fairly positive outcome with respect to injuries. It'll help even more if Wittman takes a long haul point of view and manages minutes effectively, giving guys like Nene and Pierce days off on some back-to-backs. I also hope they stay on top of Beal. Conditioning-wise, he can play a ton of minutes, but I worry about his propensity for stress fracture type injuries.

Wall and Gortat have to stay healthy. We have the depth to weather injuries to anyone else.

[dckingsfan]

Don't forget to get your Eastern Conference Standings in!

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[Illmatic12]

I think we were very fortunate. Especially considering the past. Last year seemed to be the first time in a long time that our season wasn't ruined or heavily impacted by injuries. I don't know if that means were due for a long stretch of health or if last year was just a brief reprieve from the usual disaster that strikes all Bullets/Wizards teams.

So this is more of just a pessimistic "Les Boulez, #SoWizards, we are cursed, etc" thing than it is an objective or logical thing.. I thought as much.

Objectively speaking, I don't think the group we have now is exceptionally injury-prone or, that it's a lock that our season will be decimated by injuries. But that's just my take

Eh, if you want to ignore history, fine. that's all I was pointing to. Certainly not predicting impending doom, only saying injuries have ruined many past seasons. Also assuming good health from Nene is probably about as unrealistic as it gets. Nene missing 20-30 games is probably a normal year for him at this stage, the hope is that he doesn't miss more than that or that his production doesn't continue to fall off a cliff (and it has the past two seasons).

I'm not assuming perfect health from Nene, I'm assuming that with better depth and management of his minutes (Gortat said specifically that the team was making Nene's health and minutes management a priority next season) he should be able to avoid any major injury incidents. I think that's fair.

Nene normally takes games off here and there for soreness, little dings, etc (which would probably add up to around 15-20 missed games). He doesn't normally sprain his MCL.

[Dat2U]

I'm not assuming perfect health from Nene, I'm assuming that with better depth and management of his minutes (Gortat said specifically that the team was making Nene's health and minutes management a priority next season) he should be able to avoid any major injury incidents. I think that's fair.

Nene normally takes games off here and there for soreness, little dings, etc (which would probably add up to around 15-20 missed games). He doesn't normally sprain his MCL.

I think it's fair to assume he'll miss at least a 3rd of the season. Guys don't get healthier with age. And many teams try to manage player's minutes to avoid injury to no avail.

Were not even really discussing the fact all the extra wear & tear he's going to be adding this offseason.

IMO to hope that his level of play stays the same or even improves while maintaining solid to good health is simply not realistic.

But the good part is that were solely weening ourselves off Nene because frankly we have too. Gortat needs touches and has more room to operate without Nene clogging space. Same with Wall, spacing is a lot better without Nene at PF. The amount of depth upfront gives the ability to withstand Nene's expected decline/absences and not see our season go into the tank because of it. It's only a matter of time before Nene is permanently moved to the bench where he could still be useful abusing backups on a part time basis.

[Illmatic12]

I'm not assuming perfect health from Nene, I'm assuming that with better depth and management of his minutes (Gortat said specifically that the team was making Nene's health and minutes management a priority next season) he should be able to avoid any major injury incidents. I think that's fair.

Nene normally takes games off here and there for soreness, little dings, etc (which would probably add up to around 15-20 missed games). He doesn't normally sprain his MCL.

I think it's fair to assume he'll miss at least a 3rd of the season. Guys don't get healthier with age. And many teams try to manage player's minutes to avoid injury to no avail.

Were not even really discussing the fact all the extra wear & tear he's going to be adding this offseason.

IMO to hope that his level of play stays the same or even improves while maintaining solid to good health is simply not realistic.

But the good part is that were solely weening ourselves off Nene because frankly we have too. Gortat needs touches and has more room to operate without Nene clogging space. Same with Wall, spacing is a lot better without Nene at PF. The amount of depth upfront gives the ability to withstand Nene's expected decline/absences and not see our season go into the tank because of it. It's only a matter of time before Nene is permanently moved to the bench where he could still be useful abusing backups on a part time basis.

So he'll STILL miss a third of the season, even if he's only playing ~25mpg? That's harsh, but ok..

And like you said, we are weaning ourselves off of him. Last year, Nene missing games meant starting Trevor Booker at PF. Now it means starting Humphries, with Gooden and/or Blair providing depth. I don't envision a scenario in which the team lives or dies on Nene's health (unless he's injured come playoff time).

[stevemcqueen1]

We weren't lucky with injuries last year. The MCL sprain with Nene wasn't due to his chronic injury issues. It was a freak landing and bad luck.

Nene was actually going pretty strong prior to that injury. He'd missed seven games here and there with minor stuff and was playing 30 minutes a game. When he came back in the playoffs, he came back strong and played just under 33 minutes a night.

He was playing starter's minutes. This year, you try and get that number down from 30-32 to 26-28. Keep him out of back to backs and give him games off at the end of long road trips and he'll miss less games and play at a higher level on average. We'll actually be able to do that now that our depth is good.

Also, let's not forget that our starting center went out for the year in the summer and necessitated us to make the Gortat trade to save our season. That cost us our first round pick.

Winning cures everything though. When you start winning, your roster clicks into place and good players actually want to come and play for you. They'll be happy coming off the bench for a good team. The Wizards are over 10 deep in quality this year. I can't remember the last time that's been the case. And most teams in the league do not run that deep. No one else in the East does...

[nate33]

Don't forget to get your Eastern Conference Standings in!

I'll predict a 5th seed.

[dckingsfan]

Note: If you share a win record, tie is determined by ECS

Wins

57 - deneem4
56 - jeffsays
55 - leswizards, TheBabyMaker
54 - Wizardspride, stevemcqueen1
53 - dangermouse, Hidden Eye
52 - CntOutSmrtCrazy, AFM, hands11, MOrgil, barelyawake
51 - FreeBalling, sfam, diaboliQ_Mo, Higga
50 - nuposse04, 2Mas, TheKingOfVa360, CobraCommander, DCZards, WallToWall, jivelikenice
49 - thricethefun, gesa2, BarnabyJones
48 - miller31time, KevinFCheng, jmrosenth, keynote, long suffrin' boulez fan, McFilthy, Illmatic12, Kanyewest
47 - DCKingsFan, The Fax, Jay81, Nigel Tufnel, Severn Hoos, The Fax
46 - nate33, penbeast0, montestewart, DaRealHibachi, mohammed10
45 - Ruzious, Nivek, J-Ves
44 - MJG, verbal8
43 - Dat2U, queridiculo, TGW
42 - FAH1223, Chocolate City Jordanaire
40 - BigA

ECS

2nd - leswizards, deneem4, stevemcqueen1
3rd - miller31time, CntOutSmrtCrazy, 2Mas, FreeBalling, hands11, McFilthy, sfam, BarnabyJones
4th - gesa2, DCZards, Illmatic12, J-Ves, montestewart, The Fax, mohammed10
5th - DCKingsFan, verbal8, nate33
6th - Nivek, long suffrin' boulez fan

[bgroban]

Mark me down for 51 wins.

Second in the Conference.

[BigA]

Don't forget to get your Eastern Conference Standings in!
I said 8th with a 1st round exit.

[dandridge 10]

For now, mark me with 48 wins and 4th in the EC

[closg00]

I'm not assuming perfect health from Nene, I'm assuming that with better depth and management of his minutes (Gortat said specifically that the team was making Nene's health and minutes management a priority next season) he should be able to avoid any major injury incidents. I think that's fair.

Nene normally takes games off here and there for soreness, little dings, etc (which would probably add up to around 15-20 missed games). He doesn't normally sprain his MCL.

If this were the case, the FO should not have given permission to Nene to play in World Cup basketball, that's what the Mavs and Spurs have done with Manu and Dirk.

[dckingsfan]

If this were the case, the FO should not have given permission to Nene to play in World Cup basketball, that's what the Mavs and Spurs have done with Manu and Dirk.

I could be wrong, but the club has to cite an injury to have cause for banning the player from playing. So, they would have to show that Nene has an injury that he hasn't recovered from.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Gotta change my prediction to 5th in the east. Pacers may not make the playoffs

[mohammed10]

Gotta change my prediction to 5th in the east. Pacers may not make the playoffs

Ouch - too soon, too soon. But I think you are right on this prediction