RealGM Top 100 List #13

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#261 » by DQuinn1575 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 3:17 am

DQuinn1575 wrote:I'm leaning real far towards Kobe

For a 5 year prime I think only Moses and Mikan are clearly ahead

Kobe far surpasses them in longevity. There only Karl malone probably has an edge

Five rings - here only Mikan is in the paragraph. Kobe had 30% usage in 2 of his shaq playoff years

I'll wait on my official vote - but I'm definitely leaning one way



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When players are close, to me it comes down to winning the In the end for the great players it's about the championship. I don't think anyone has a huge advantage over Kobe - if West, Karl Malone, DRob, Barkley, Dirk, Doctor J, or Moses won even 3 NBA titles I might go with them over Kobe.

Moses and Doc may have had better peaks
DRob was better on defense
Probably everybody left as some advantage but there just isn't enough for me to pick someone over Kobe







OFFICIAL VOTE AT 13 FOR KOBE BRYANT
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#262 » by MistyMountain20 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 3:24 am

Baller2014 wrote:
ShaqAttack3234 wrote:Oh, and for the argument that Malone would have rings like Kobe if he had the same help. This is especially funny to me because the only reason Malone even got his first finals appearance was because Stockton and his teammates stepped up while Malone shot 43.5% with a 50.1 TS% in the playoffs, especially in the Houston series when Stockton was great. Malone in that series only averaged 23.5 ppg on 44.8 FG% and 49.4 TS% while Stockton averaged 20.5 ppg and 10.3 apg on 53.8 FG% and 65.1 TS% including the series-winning shot.

It's easy to find series where a player seemed to slightly underperform their usual standards, whether we're looking at K.Malone or Kobe. It's also easy in Karl Malone's case to find series where he put up 30-12 on 482 FG% and almost knocked out the showtime Lakers, or his monster 1992 campaign. Maybe if Malone had the luxury of the quality of team mates Kobe had in the years he won titles, he could have had the odd bad game or series like Kobe did. Karl Malone at age 35 losing to the Jordan Bulls seems like a ridiculous thing to hold against him. Kobe wasn't doing any of that at age 35.

A much fairer comparison would be Karl's physical, statistical and actual best years, from 88-93, when he was 25-30 years old. He looks like the better playoff performer than Kobe those years, especially once we factor in D, even when we look at this selective 06-10 stretch after they changed the rules to help Kobe. Then add in Karl being better in the regular season always, more longevity, no negatives, etc, I'm kind of baffled about what Kobe's argument is.

...except he's clearly talking about the Houston where he did have that odd bad series and his teammates did cover up for him...

Btw, lol at "help" Kobe. Yes, they helped him on a raw level, but if your doing that type of analysis, well you're not doing much analysis at all. We have season averages to compare Kobe from season to season without much variance.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#263 » by Notanoob » Fri Aug 1, 2014 3:34 am

I suppose that this is where Kobe finally gets in, but I'll cast my official vote for Jerry West here.
It seems to me that he's a superior all around player to Kobe-more efficient scorer by a serious margin when adjusting for era, a superior passer and play-maker, and a better defender. Excellent post-season perform, including a Finals MVP in defeat, unlucky that his coaches never figured to use him more than Baylor as a scorer, and was always running into the Celtics in his prime.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#264 » by Baller2014 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 3:41 am

DQuinn1575 wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:I'm leaning real far towards Kobe

For a 5 year prime I think only Moses and Mikan are clearly ahead

Kobe far surpasses them in longevity. There only Karl malone probably has an edge

Five rings - here only Mikan is in the paragraph. Kobe had 30% usage in 2 of his shaq playoff years

I'll wait on my official vote - but I'm definitely leaning one way



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When players are close, to me it comes down to winning the In the end for the great players it's about the championship. I don't think anyone has a huge advantage over Kobe - if West, Karl Malone, DRob, Barkley, Dirk, Doctor J, or Moses won even 3 NBA titles I might go with them over Kobe.

Moses and Doc may have had better peaks
DRob was better on defense
Probably everybody left as some advantage but there just isn't enough for me to pick someone over Kobe







OFFICIAL VOTE AT 13 FOR KOBE BRYANT

Dr J did win 3 titles. His 2 ABA titles were won in a league that was tougher than the NBA those years. I covered this in great depth on page 1. I can't understand an argument that Dr J didn't win 3 rings at all, unless you think nobody in the 70's pre-merger had rings that "count".
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#265 » by ShaqAttack3234 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 4:01 am

Baller2014 wrote:It's easy to find series where a player seemed to slightly underperform their usual standards, whether we're looking at K.Malone or Kobe.


Except, the finals runs are Malone's equivalent of Kobe's rings, and could you imagine if Kobe was winning his rings with a 50 TS%? And Stockton outplaying Malone like that would have been the equivalent of Gasol outplaying Kobe for a playoff run from '08-'10.

Malone did have the help necessary for most to win a title as evidenced by the fact that he had such a subpar run and still made the finals in '97. And it's not just '97. Look at '99 when he averaged 21.8 ppg on 41.7% shooting in the playoffs and 49.2 TS% including 20.2 ppg on 43 FG% and 49.6 TS% in the WCSF when Utah lost to Portland.

Or '96 when Utah nearly got to another finals losing in game 7 to a great Sonics team in the conference finals despite Malone's TS% being a paltry 49.8% for the 18 game playoff run.

It's weak to talk about help when Malone was right there contending with such underwhelming play in the playoffs as he showed in '96 and '97.

It's also easy in Karl Malone's case to find series where he put up 30-12 on 482 FG% and almost knocked out the showtime Lakers


Malone's TS% was also 53.7% that run while league average was 53.8%, and this is what you're using to prop up Malone? He wasn't facing the '94 Knicks by any stretch either. The Blazers he faced were 10th with a 107.4 defensive rating while the Lakers were 9th with a 107.3 defensive rating.

The equivalent would be if I just used Kobe's first 2 series from 2008 vs Denver and Utah. You want to see Kobe's stats in those 10 playoff games? 33.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg and 6.8 apg on 49.5 FG% and 61.4 TS%. Plus, those 2 teams still had a better defensive rating than Karl's opponents in the '88 playoffs.

And that's the run you're hyping up in a comparison to Kobe? Shows how weak Karl's case vs Kobe really is. And it also shows that despite Karl's unusually long prime, it's still relatively difficult to find impressive playoff performances.

or his monster 1992 campaign.


Yeah, this was a great run. I've never disputed that, but Kobe had 4 great runs('01, '08-'10) and a 5th run in 2002 that was better than Malone's '97 finals run.

Maybe if Malone had the luxury of the quality of team mates Kobe had in the years he won titles, he could have had the odd bad game or series like Kobe did.

Karl Malone at age 35 losing to the Jordan Bulls seems like a ridiculous thing to hold against him. Kobe wasn't doing any of that at age 35.


Actually, I'm holding Malone at 33(nearly 34) losing to the Bulls against him because he simply didn't play well in the '97 playoffs. And it's irrelevant what Malone did at that particular age because Malone, by his own admission, was playing better than ever at that age.

A much fairer comparison would be Karl's physical, statistical and actual best years, from 88-93, when he was 25-30 years old.


Except those weren't Karl's best years. Not unless you ignore that Malone was a considerably better shooter, post defender and passer from '94 on. Here's what Karl had to say in '98.

"I'm doing more things defensively. This has definitely been my best year. I've scored more points, gotten more rebounds this year, but I'm a smarter player, a more patient player."

He said a similar thing in '97 as well. Karl himself shares the opinion of most observers, which is that he peaked later than most.

He looks like the better playoff performer than Kobe those years, especially once we factor in D, even when we look at this selective 06-10 stretch after they changed the rules to help Kobe.


No, he still doesn't look like the better playoff performer. Kobe is superior in the playoffs no matter what stretch you use, especially since Malone's numbers benefited from the much faster pace in those early years. And even though Kobe didn't have Malone's freakish longevity.

It's especially funny because you keep bringing up defense when it was the post-'93 version of Malone that was the very good post defender, and because Malone was more of an individual post defender than an anchor, the fact that he's a power forward greatly limits the advantage of his defense over a guard like Kobe.

Then add in Karl being better in the regular season always, more longevity, no negatives, etc, I'm kind of baffled about what Kobe's argument is.


Yeah, and how much good did those regular season numbers do in April, May and June when Malone's shooting percentage plummeted and Karl continually got sent home?

Kobe's case is simple. Better basketball player and vastly superior postseason performer.

And if you're going to continue to overstate Kobe's negatives, lets not act like Malone has none. yes, Malone was a hard worker and a team guy, but the fact that he was a superstar expected to shoulder the load whose play consistently declined in the playoffs is a negative. And if we're talking off the court, well, I think hitting on your teammates wife is a negative as well.

Karl Malone could still be playing for all I care and it wouldn't make him a better basketball player than Kobe was, and he probably still wouldn't have approached him in rings either.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#266 » by Baller2014 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 4:21 am

Ok, first and foremost, we have a different method of ranking players. You've basically said you're not considering longevity at all, except in extreme cases like Bill Walton, so of course you're not voting for Karl Malone. Heck, you should vote for Barkley if that's your stance (or D.Rob). So while I'm going to reply to the stuff you wrote below, I just want to emphasise firstly on how artificial I find this sort of criteria to be, where you're trying to make a big deal of a 5 year stretch and saying "well, I think Kobe tended to have slightly better playoffs in this 5 year stretch" (not that I think he did anyway, but it's a style of argument that is ignoring so much else we should be looking at).

ShaqAttack3234 wrote:Except, the finals runs are Malone's equivalent of Kobe's rings, and could you imagine if Kobe was winning his rings with a 50 TS%? And Stockton outplaying Malone like that would have been the equivalent of Gasol outplaying Kobe for a playoff run from '08-'10.

Well, you're comparing the 2, but it's not clear to me why Karl Malone at age 35 should be compared to Kobe at age 20-something. I can't imagine Kobe winning rings as the best player at 35 at all to be honest.

Malone did have the help necessary for most to win a title as evidenced by the fact that he had such a subpar run and still made the finals in '97. And it's not just '97. Look at '99 when he averaged 21.8 ppg on 41.7% shooting in the playoffs and 49.2 TS% including 20.2 ppg on 43 FG% and 49.6 TS% in the WCSF when Utah lost to Portland.

At age 34. And they lost to the Jordan Bulls. But again, the man was 34. It's incredible he was still putting up the numbers he did at that age (and really, you're selectively picking out bad series here, as though Kobe never had bad series). It's all false equivalence. "Hey, let's compare Kobe's best years to Karl Malone in his mid-30's! Wow, Kobe looks a bit better!" Defense goes unmentioned as usual. Karl has a rather big impact on that end, so this is pretty important.

Or '96 when Utah nearly got to another finals losing in game 7 to a great Sonics team in the conference finals despite Malone's TS% being a paltry 49.8% for the 18 game playoff run.

Kobe has whole playoff runs with similarly bad TS%. Those go unmentioned of course, because your criteria is to look at 5 year stretches. How you rate players is up to you, but I'm not going to forget that prime Kobe has whole playoffs with such "paltry" TS%, all while doing a lot less than Malone elsewhere.

Malone's TS% was also 53.7% that run while league average was 53.8%, and this is what you're using to prop up Malone? He wasn't facing the '94 Knicks by any stretch either. The Blazers he faced were 10th with a 107.4 defensive rating while the Lakers were 9th with a 107.3 defensive rating.

Looking at the league average for shooting % is not something I see any value in. People in the 80's used the mid range game much better back then, so they could shoot better. Malone should be punished for the generally higher quality of shooters in his era? That's absurd.

Actually, I'm holding Malone at 33(nearly 34) losing to the Bulls against him because he simply didn't play well in the '97 playoffs. And it's irrelevant what Malone did at that particular age because Malone, by his own admission, was playing better than ever at that age.

He was 34 in the 97 playoffs, which is what you're judging him on. 35 in 98.

I'll go off when the evidence says Karl was a better player, not knee jerk player media speak. Players say dumb things all the time, this is no different. Some media narrative focused on Malone more in his finals runs, for obvious reasons, but I don't see any evidence he was a better player. Malone's numbers were consistent in that time irrespective of fast paced teams, so I don't see any reason to punish him for it. Sure, his 89 playoff run was helped by a fast Warriors team. So were Kobe's Phoenix series.

I'm paying zero attention to Karl Malone supposedly hitting on Kobe's wife, because it's disputed what happened and because nothing else of this sort was ever suggested in his playing days. The way Kobe handled it was incredibly unwise though.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#267 » by DQuinn1575 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 4:25 am

Baller2014 wrote:[Dr J did win 3 titles. His 2 ABA titles were won in a league that was tougher than the NBA those years. I covered this in great depth on page 1. I can't understand an argument that Dr J didn't win 3 rings at all, unless you think nobody in the 70's pre-merger had rings that "count".


The leagues were never equal - especially not in 1974


See

http://www.apbr.org/oct2000.html


plus


DQuinn1575 wrote:



ABA vs NBA 1976


It's pretty easy to compare the ABA versus NBA in 1976 because the following season the leagues merged. The ABA
had 7 teams for virtually the whole season; the NBA 22.

So let's look at the top 35 players in minutes for ABA teams and the top 110 for NBA teams and see how they did the
following season.

Two of the 35 ABA players (5.7%) and 5 of the 110 NBA players (4.5%) did not play the following season. The percentages
are fairly similar, so I ignored them. I probably should have assumed a reduction for each, but they should balance
each other out.

For the remaining players, I took WS/48 minutes. Win shares are obviously not perfect, but since we are allocatin
wins and taking the players who played most of the minutes in total we shouldn't be too far off. If Doctor J is a
win share too low, most of that win share is assigned to someone else in the sample and it cancels itself out.


For comparison, I also did this for the 130 players (26 teams) from 1977-1978.


1976 ABA .116/.092 - 79.6% retained
1976 NBA .108/.099 - 91.3% retained

1977 NBA .110/.100 - 91.2% retained


The top 7 ABA players in minutes

Don Buse
Artis Gilmore
Julius Erving
Ralph Simpson
James Silas
David Thompson
Billy Paultz

all went down

The ABA had some young players - Gervin, Bobby Jones, Larry Kenon, and Maurice Lucas who got better and
that goup plus GIlmore, Erving,Thompson, Dan Issel, and Billy Knight added some great talent - as well as young
Moses Malone, who didn't crack the top 35 in minutes played for an ABA team.

So, the ABA was 79.6%/91.3% compared to the NBA - 87.2%

So, I weight Doctor J in the ABA at about 90% of the ABA. Behind Jabbar, but probably at a level of Cowens, McAdoo, and Rick Barry - somewhere in the 2-5 best player in basketball.

I think I get Doc with 3 ABA seasons, 74-76 and 4 NBA seasons 80-83 at the top 5 level .
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#268 » by Baller2014 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 4:33 am

The ABA was clearly as tough. Take the example of 1976. You played 6 other teams that year. 1 of those teams was weak, but the other 5 games were against 3 teams who would have been NBA contenders and 2 teams who would have made the NBA playoffs in 76. When the Spurs came over to the NBA, in spite of losing an all-nba 1st teamer, they produced the same level of results the first 3 NBA seasons as the last 3 ABA ones (indeed, their best season was in the NBA). Despite losing notable players the Nuggets were a very successful NBA team, with the 2nd highest SRS in the NBA in 1977. There's every reason to think the teams who beat them, like the Colonels and Nets, would have beaten the NBA teams in in 1976 or 77. It's just the Colonels and Nets teams that were awesome in the ABA didn't exist anymore in 1977. I went through this in great detail.

If the ABA was a worse league, then why did the 2 ABA teams who changed the least have no problem in their transfer to the NBA? Stats of individuals going down/up is no way to look at it, because those depend on how a player is getting used, etc. Dr J went to a situation where he was told to do less. I explained all this on page 1, and you seem to be ignoring it.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#269 » by magicmerl » Fri Aug 1, 2014 4:50 am

A lot of those people don't have votes. I have the correct count here:

Thanks.

Through to post 269

7 Kobe Bryant (GC Pantalones, ShaqAttack3234, ardee, batmana, JordansBulls, Basketballefan, DQuinn1575)
5 Karl Malone (Baller2014, therealbig3, trex_8063, magicmerl, FJS)
2 Dirk Nowitzki (rich316, Quotatious)
2 Jerry West (penbeast0, Notanoob)
1 DrJ (Warspite)

Leaning Kobe, but not voted (An Unbiased Fan)
Leaning West, but not voted (RayBan-Sematra)
If they had a vote
1 Isiah Thomas (RightToCensor)
1 Charles Barkley (Purch)
1 Moses Malone (Jim Naismith)
1 David Robinson (BallerTed)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#270 » by Samurai » Fri Aug 1, 2014 5:20 am

Notanoob wrote:West also went on to a successful coaching career, and I recall someone talking about how he understood where the ball was going to go before guys decided to pass it- he was likely a monster in his prime when it came to playing the passing lanes and help-defense.



I was the one who posted about West's ability to sense what pass was coming, but I was just stating what Bill Russell said about West being the best defensive player in basketball. (yes, I must humbly concede that Russell knows more about defense than I do :wink: ). And I understand that some are questioning if just because West posted incredible steal/block numbers in his last year, they are unwilling to accept that West would post even higher numbers in his physical peak. I saw a lot of West, both in person when the Lakers came to town as well as on TV. I can say that I have never seen any player, in any era, who stole the ball more than West. He also blocked a lot of shots, primarily against people driving to the basket. West's 6-9 wingspan, along with his jumping ability, caught a lot of shooters off guard.

According to the Lakeland Ledger, it was after a Lakers/Sonics game in which West had 3 baskets, 3 assists, 6 steals, and a blocked shot (by Spencer Hayward!) as the Lakers increased their halftime lead of 4 to a third quarter lead of 16, that prompted Sonics coach Bucky Buckwalter to say that "when West dies, they ought to cut off his hands and bronze them". He was referring to West having the quickest hands in the NBA.

But yet the perception of West today is that he was "unathletic". He had excellent jumping ability (he was able to reach within an inch or so of the top of the square on the backboard; he also jumped center before turning pro) and had one of the quickest first steps ever. There were players, then and now, who could beat West in a footrace from endline to endline, but his first step was as quick as anyone. So someone with the quickest hands and first step along with very good jumping ability is not athletic? That's like asking "who is faster - prime Bruce Lee or Usain Bolt?" As a martial artist for 45+ years, I am convinced that if they squared off, Lee would have no problem tatooing Bolt's face with lightning backfists. If Bolt were smart, he would turn and run away, and I am equally convinced that there is absolutely no way that prime Lee is ever catching him in a footrace. So who is faster? Which one is the "unathletic" one?

I will also add this. If steals/blocks were recorded throughout West's career, I am convinced that West would post steal numbers that would dwarf the totals posted by league leaders in later eras. Similarly, Russell (and Wilt) would record more blocks than the league leaders from later eras. But just because their stat totals would be much higher does not conclusive prove that West, Russell/Wilt were automatically better defenders than those from later eras. You need to remember the style of play was very different then. If you used a crossover dribble, you'd be whistled for carrying. Fans today, who really never watched basketball back then within the context of that time, criticize ballhandlers back then without realizing that the rules were different. Dribbling just was harder under those rules, which also meant that it was easier to steal the ball from them back then. Likewise, while there were certainly players capable of pulling off rim-racking dunks, dunking was not "the cool thing to do" back then. The norm was just to lay the ball in softly - and it was generally easier to block a layup than a dunk. So yes, I firmly believe West would post astronomical steal numbers (and Russell astronomical block numbers), but I don't think it would be right to just compare those numbers at face value to totals from different eras and make pronouncements. They would have to be adjusted somehow - just as is commonly done to account for different pace - to make comparisons across different eras.

I can't provide any stats to convince anyone who never really saw West play how good he was defensively. But I do know that in this case, I am not telling Bill Russell that he was wrong!
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#271 » by drza » Fri Aug 1, 2014 5:21 am

Re: David Robinson's playoff defense

therealbig3 wrote:
DavidStern wrote:^
Robinson's defense in playoffs
for now only one example:

Code: Select all

   PPG   TS%   RPG
1994   29,3   56,1   12,3
1996   25,0   49,3   9,3
1998   24,6   46,3   10


That's Malone's production against Spurs in playoffs.
In 1994 for most time he was guarded by Rodman.
In 1996 by Robinson and in 1998 by Robinson and Perdue (Duncan in that series played as small forward :) )

So from defensive standpoint Robinson was doing fine, maybe even very good.

Of course his offense is different story, but we have to remember how weak supporting cast he had, especially on perimeter, no to many shooters or creators and that allowed opposing defenses to constantly double team him (even Rockets with Hakeem double teamed Robinson regularly).


Well...if Robinson was not the one guarding Malone, isn't his team defense the problem then? I mean isn't he the one who is providing weak side help? Isn't he supposed to be anchoring a defense that shuts down the opposing team?

Using the ORatings from the 94-96 series:

94: Utah had an average 110.9 ORating, which was +6.3 on SA's DRating that year
95: Houston had an average 110.9 ORating, which was +5.5 on SA's DRating that year
96: Utah had an average 114.4 ORating, which was +10.9 on SA's DRating that year

Robinson wasn't bringing it as a man defender (maybe a little bit, because Malone overall wasn't scoring all that efficiently in 96...but it's certainly not what I expect from frikin David Robinson here), and he isn't bringing it as a defensive anchor (Houston and Utah went bonkers on SA offensively)...so where's this huge defensive impact you would expect from a guy with a defensive reputation like Robinson? Usually, teams do worse offensively in the playoffs, but Utah and Houston did substantially better against the Spurs. That falls on Robinson as their anchor.



While looking for Dr. J posts earlier from the last Top 100 project, I came across this exchange between Lorak (then David Stern) and therealbig3 about David Robinson's defense in the postseason. It's very relevant to the question that I posed earlier, that I know acrossthecourt has weighed in on. Lorak argues that in the three meetings with Utah (94, 96 and 98) Robinson was only the primary defender of Malone in 96 an 98, both of which resulted in poor shooting from Malone. In 94 when Malone went off, he argues that it was Rodman primarily defending Malone.

However, therealbig3 responds by pointing out that in each of 94, 95 and 96 Robinson's teams gave up way worse numbers than their defensive expectation. I thought this was interesting, because it's the other side of the coin from the approach that acrossthecourt seemed to take earlier in the thread. He took the approach that, on average, opposing offenses scored about what they were expected to against the Spurs. I don't know the methodology he used, but seemingly it's based on their in-season ORTG, home court advantage, playoff conditions, etc.

But if the opponent is scoring about what they'd be expected to based on their ORTGs, but the Spurs (at least in those 3 peak years) were giving up a lot more points than their defense would be expected to based on their DRTGs...isn't that an indication that the defense is underperforming?

In other words, if both the offense and the defense played well the expectation would be that they'd split the difference between what the offense usually produces and what the defense usually gives up, right? But if the offense is hitting their marks and the defense is way off from theirs, it seems to me that the defense isn't doing what their supposed to.

Acrossthecourt, did my interpretation make sense, or did I flub your methodology? This is a key question, because if Robinson can't be shown to be having his normal defensive impact on a regular basis in the postseason of his prime, in conjunction with the scoring woes and lack of noticeable distribution skills it would strengthen the argument that he just wasn't performing in the postseason like you'd hope that he would.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#272 » by colts18 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 5:27 am

drza wrote:Re: David Robinson's playoff defense



Here is my breakdown of Robinson's playoff Defense

Playoffs:
Robinson gets a bad rap for his playoff performances, but he has had a few pretty good defensive playoffs despite a few clunkers (ex: 95 vs Hakeem)

90: 106.1 D rating (-3.1 playoff LA)
DRob: 100.2 D rating (3rd), 4.8 BLK (2nd )

91:
DRob: 3.8 BLK (1st), 31.3 Dreb% (1st),

92: Spurs collapse without Robinson as I outlined above.

93: 107.0 D rating (-0.9 LA)
DRob: 100.8 D rating (4th), 3.6 BLK (2nd), 25.4 Dreb% (3rd)

94:
DRob: 2.5 BLK (4th)

95: 103.1 D rating (-7.5 LA), 2nd
DRob: 97.5 D rating (1st), 2.6 BLK (4th), 1.6 DWS (1st)

David Robinson and the Spurs get bashed so much based on this playoff series but the Spurs actually played elite defense and Robinson did too (1st in D rating)

96:
DRob: 2.5 BLK (2nd)

98: 101.4 D rating (-4.2), 2nd
DRob: 93.4 D rating (1st), 3.3 BLK (1st), 27.2 DReb% (4th)

99: 95.1 D rating (-6.7 LA), 1st
DRob: 87.3 D rating (1st), 1.7 DWS (1st)

Arguably the best postseason defense of all-time and Robinson’s 87.3 D rating is 2nd best in NBA history behind Ben Wallace’s masterful 2004 playoffs.

00: 91.4 D rating (-12.8 LA),1st
DRob: 84 D rating (1st), 3.0 BLK (2nd), 24.5 DReb% (4th)

Robinson’s D rating would have been the best in playoff history if he had enough games to qualify. It’s the best D rating in NBA history for anyone who played 150 minutes or more in a playoff.

01: 102.6 D rating (-1.9 LA), 6th
DRob: 92.4 D rating (1st), 2.4 BLK (5th), 28.7 DReb% (1st)

Another 1st place D rating finish for Robinson

02: 102.7 D rating (-0.6 LA), 8th
The Spurs finish mediocrely most likely due to the fact that Robinson only played in 4 playoff games, but Robinson did have a nice 97 D rating

03: 97.7 D rating (-7.4 LA), 1st
DRob: 93.8 D rating (3rd), 31 blocks (5th)

This is another case for best postseason defense in history.

For Robinson’s playoff career he has a 96.2 D rating (8th) and is 13th in DWS. He has 5 1st place D rating finishes (NBA record), 7 top 4’s, 9 top 10’s.
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RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#273 » by RSCD3_ » Fri Aug 1, 2014 5:36 am

I think if you're going to credit malone's great regular seasons at an older age l, then you should hold him to a standard based on that, for his playoff performances

Not say " look how well he played in the 1997 regular season "

And then " well he was 34 in the 1997 nba playoffs "


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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#274 » by ThaRegul8r » Fri Aug 1, 2014 7:17 am

drza wrote:Re: David Robinson's playoff defense

therealbig3 wrote:
DavidStern wrote:^
Robinson's defense in playoffs
for now only one example:

Code: Select all

   PPG   TS%   RPG
1994   29,3   56,1   12,3
1996   25,0   49,3   9,3
1998   24,6   46,3   10


That's Malone's production against Spurs in playoffs.
In 1994 for most time he was guarded by Rodman.
In 1996 by Robinson and in 1998 by Robinson and Perdue (Duncan in that series played as small forward :) )

So from defensive standpoint Robinson was doing fine, maybe even very good.

Of course his offense is different story, but we have to remember how weak supporting cast he had, especially on perimeter, no to many shooters or creators and that allowed opposing defenses to constantly double team him (even Rockets with Hakeem double teamed Robinson regularly).


Well...if Robinson was not the one guarding Malone, isn't his team defense the problem then? I mean isn't he the one who is providing weak side help? Isn't he supposed to be anchoring a defense that shuts down the opposing team?

Using the ORatings from the 94-96 series:

94: Utah had an average 110.9 ORating, which was +6.3 on SA's DRating that year
95: Houston had an average 110.9 ORating, which was +5.5 on SA's DRating that year
96: Utah had an average 114.4 ORating, which was +10.9 on SA's DRating that year

Robinson wasn't bringing it as a man defender (maybe a little bit, because Malone overall wasn't scoring all that efficiently in 96...but it's certainly not what I expect from frikin David Robinson here), and he isn't bringing it as a defensive anchor (Houston and Utah went bonkers on SA offensively)...so where's this huge defensive impact you would expect from a guy with a defensive reputation like Robinson? Usually, teams do worse offensively in the playoffs, but Utah and Houston did substantially better against the Spurs. That falls on Robinson as their anchor.



While looking for Dr. J posts earlier from the last Top 100 project, I came across this exchange between Lorak (then David Stern) and therealbig3 about David Robinson's defense in the postseason. It's very relevant to the question that I posed earlier, that I know acrossthecourt has weighed in on. Lorak argues that in the three meetings with Utah (94, 96 and 98) Robinson was only the primary defender of Malone in 96 an 98, both of which resulted in poor shooting from Malone. In 94 when Malone went off, he argues that it was Rodman primarily defending Malone.

However, therealbig3 responds by pointing out that in each of 94, 95 and 96 Robinson's teams gave up way worse numbers than their defensive expectation. I thought this was interesting, because it's the other side of the coin from the approach that acrossthecourt seemed to take earlier in the thread. He took the approach that, on average, opposing offenses scored about what they were expected to against the Spurs. I don't know the methodology he used, but seemingly it's based on their in-season ORTG, home court advantage, playoff conditions, etc.

But if the opponent is scoring about what they'd be expected to based on their ORTGs, but the Spurs (at least in those 3 peak years) were giving up a lot more points than their defense would be expected to based on their DRTGs...isn't that an indication that the defense is underperforming?

In other words, if both the offense and the defense played well the expectation would be that they'd split the difference between what the offense usually produces and what the defense usually gives up, right? But if the offense is hitting their marks and the defense is way off from theirs, it seems to me that the defense isn't doing what their supposed to.

Acrossthecourt, did my interpretation make sense, or did I flub your methodology? This is a key question, because if Robinson can't be shown to be having his normal defensive impact on a regular basis in the postseason of his prime, in conjunction with the scoring woes and lack of noticeable distribution skills it would strengthen the argument that he just wasn't performing in the postseason like you'd hope that he would.


I remember the talk about Robinson's defense in the playoffs during the Retro Player of the Year Project.

TrueLAfan wrote:
ElGee wrote:
TrueLAfan wrote:4. Payton. He was a stud this year, period. More important to his team than Kemp, who had obvious gifts and less obvious--and significant—flaws. (If Shawn Kemp had learned to box out properly, his rebounding might be worth something. He didn’t, really. So it isn’t, as much.) In games 4-6 of the finals, Payton made Jordan work harder than pretty much anyone I had seen since the late 80s. Almost had him at 3; will look at the rest of the posts and could change this.


Can we put this into perspective though, since i think it's giving Payton a boost up people's ballots.

The regular season is 82 games. That's over 6,000 possessions for Payton. In the playoffs he played ~1,500 more possessions. He didn't guard Jordan for all of these games...they had Hawkins on him and even Schrempf at times. So this is, what, 150 defensive possessions? Within that series alone, Payton didn't even play that well.

Now, I think it's perfectly fair to look at that as being reflective of something bigger, and perhaps even use it as a tiebreaker or something. He did play Jordan wonderfully. I just get the feeling people are rocketing Payton up their boards because of these few games and his team's success. I'm fairly confident in saying that Payton was better in 1998 and better in 2000 than he was in 1996.

Finally, you have to ask yourself how big of an impact Payton's defense had on the game. For a point guard, I think it was huge. Compared to a wing, very good. But short of a big. Just watch the games -- he's not having the same impact defensively as Scottie Pippen, let alone the handful of elite bigs ahead of him. In the games against Jordan, Payton's having great defensive games relative to Michael, but it's not like his defensive line is:

2 charges, 5 forced turnovers, 2 basket saves (on help blocks/strips), 2 points against, 2 shooting fouls, no defensive errors, 17% FG's against, 5 defensive rebounds and the general disruption of dribble penetration from the PG.

I only mention that line because it approximates the last Scottie Pippen game I graded defensively.


Well, part of the perspective is that Gary Payton was Defensive Player of the Year. And in this case, part of the perspective is that a player being brought up frequently—David Robinson—had poor defensive play in the playoffs, and it cost his team.

I’ve got Pippen in my top 7 for the season, so I’ve got nothing bad to say about Scottie. But the points being made about postseason play with other players are, IMO, valid; they’re also one of the main reasons why this topic exists. MVP voting is done before the postseason. Several players that had earned regular season MVPs struggled in the playoffs, and a part of what we consider—as others have noted—is whether this would/should have had an effect on the MVP voting in a season. Now, the question of how much emphasis to put on post season play is relative. Some people give it a ton; some people rate it more or less equally with regular season play. As usual, I’m in the middle about this. Considering that David Robinson had a much better regular season than Gary Payton. He was also worse on both offense and defense than Payton in the playoffs. Is that enough to elevate Payton over Drob? For some it is. For me, it isn’t—although it makes it close.


ElGee wrote:TrueLAFan made a point about David Robinson's defensive impact in the playoffs. Indeed, there seems to be some validity to that, if we believe that Robinson has a major influence on their defense as the anchor.

Here are the Spurs DRtg in his 93-96 stretch compared with regular season performance. The opponents ORtg is weighted by games played vs. team (eg a 6 game series counts twice as much as a 3 game series).

1996 111.5 (+8.0 vs. regular season) +4.7 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 112.1
1995 103.1 (-2.3 vs. regular season) -7.9 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 109.3
1994 110.3 (+5.7 vs. regular season) +5.3 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 108.6
1993 107.0 (+0.2 vs. regular season) -0.9 relative to league average. Weighted opp avg. 111.3

So it seems there is something to what TrueLAFan is saying. Perhaps with the exception of 1995's first 2 rounds...but we know what happened after that.

My general problem with Robinson, like everyone else, is his playoff performances. It's not that I viewed him as some sort of choker, just that he faired much better much better in a regular season style and against weaker competition. Which isn't too damning (we shouldn't overstate the unfortunate fact that he ran into Malone and Hakeem at the worst time). His regular seasons still count. I just know what type of contribution I'm getting toward a championship (he's a little too subject to certain styles and matchups, and when he runs into them there's a larger drop off then we see from other stars.)

1993 struggled against Duckworth/Williams vs. Portland. Then a better series against Phoenix (but a bad game 7).
1994 ran into Utah. Struggled.
1995 He DESTROYED LA (Dviac and Campbell) a round before playing Hakeem.
1996 great against Phoenix. Then Utah again...

That's something that I'll take into account, in general, for all of his prime seasons.


therealbig3 wrote:Here's the Spurs' DRating under Robinson in the playoffs:

91: 4-game series against the Warriors, who had a 111.9 ORating in the regular season, and the Spurs held them to 111.7 (-0.2).

93: 4-game series against the Blazers, who had a 108.3 ORating in the regular season, and the Spurs held them to 107.7 (-0.6).

6-game series against the Suns, who had a 113.3 ORating in the regular season, and the Spurs held them to 109.9 (-3.4).

94: 4-game series against the Jazz, who had a 108.6 ORating in the regular season, and the Spurs held them to 110.6 (+2.0).

95: 3-game series against the Nuggets, who had a 109.1 ORating in the regular season, and the Spurs held them to 103.1 (-6.0).

6-game series against the Lakers, who had a 109.1 ORating in the regular season, and the Spurs held them to 101.3 (-7.8).

6-game series against the Rockets, who had a 109.7 ORating in the regular season, and the Spurs held them to 110.6 (+0.9).

96: 4-game series against the Suns, who had a 110.3 ORating in the regular season, and the Spurs held them to 109.3 (-1.0).

6-games series against the Jazz, who had a 113.3 ORating in the regular season, and the Spurs held them to 114.1 (+0.8).

As you can see, although the Spurs had some nice defensive series (a couple in 95, and one in 93), they had mostly mediocre defensive series, in which they allowed opposing teams to either score their averages against them, or even do better offensively. An elite defensive team like the Spurs shouldn't allow that...in general, they should hold their opponents to well under their averages.

Looking at the Wolves from 99-04:

99: 4-game series against the Spurs, who had a 104.0 ORating in the regular season, and the Wolves held them to 102.6 (-1.4).

00: 4-game series against the Blazers, who had a 107.9 ORating in the regular season, and the Wolves held them to 107.4 (-0.5).

01: 4-game series against the Spurs, who had a 106.6 ORating in the regular season, and the Wolves held them to 101.9 (-4.7).

02: 3-game series against the Mavs, who had a 112.2 ORating in the regular season, and the Wolves held them to 118.0 (+5.8).

03: 6-game series against the Lakers, who had a 107.2 ORating in the regular season, and the Wolves held them to 113.7 (+6.5)

04: 5-game series against the Nuggets, who had a 103.9 ORating in the regular season, and the Wolves held them to 99.8 (-4.1).

7-game series against the Kings, who had a 110.3 ORating in the regular season, and the Wolves held them to 102.2 (-8.1).

6-game series against the Lakers, who had a 105.5 ORating in the regular season, and the Wolves held them to 107.3 (+1.8).

With the Wolves, you have average to above average defensive teams that are keeping opposing teams to their averages (this is to be expected), and they are also having some great defensive series against great offensive teams (this is not expected). Outside of 02 and 03, when they gave up big offensive series to the Mavs and Lakers, the Wolves played excellent on defense imo.

So, with the Spurs, you have an elite defensive team dropping to above average levels. And considering how guys like Barkley, Malone, and especially Hakeem had some great series against D-Rob and the Spurs, I think you can conclude that Robinson as the defensive anchor got worse defensively in the playoffs, by quite a bit.

With the Timberwolves, you have an above average defense improving to elite levels. And considering how guys like Wallace, Duncan, and Robinson himself (Dirk is the exception) struggled against KG and the Wolves, I think you can conclude that KG as the defensive anchor got a lot better in the playoffs.

And offensively, KG's dropoff is less than Robinson's, I think that's pretty obvious.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#275 » by lorak » Fri Aug 1, 2014 7:25 am

drza wrote:However, therealbig3 responds by pointing out that in each of 94, 95 and 96 Robinson's teams gave up way worse numbers than their defensive expectation. I thought this was interesting, because it's the other side of the coin from the approach that acrossthecourt seemed to take earlier in the thread. He took the approach that, on average, opposing offenses scored about what they were expected to against the Spurs. I don't know the methodology he used, but seemingly it's based on their in-season ORTG, home court advantage, playoff conditions, etc.

But if the opponent is scoring about what they'd be expected to based on their ORTGs, but the Spurs (at least in those 3 peak years) were giving up a lot more points than their defense would be expected to based on their DRTGs...isn't that an indication that the defense is underperforming?

In other words, if both the offense and the defense played well the expectation would be that they'd split the difference between what the offense usually produces and what the defense usually gives up, right? But if the offense is hitting their marks and the defense is way off from theirs, it seems to me that the defense isn't doing what their supposed to.


If we want to know if defense in playoffs performed under/over expectations, then we have to compare playoff series drtg to expected drtg (where exp drtg = (team RS drtg+opp RS ortg)/2).

Results for Spurs with Robinson (negative value is good):

Code: Select all

YEAR   OPP   DRTG
1995   LAL   -9,3
1995   DEN   -4,2
1993   PTB   -2,5
1990   PTB   -2,1
1993   PHO   -0,1
1990   DEN   1,1
1996   PHO   2,4
1995   HOU   3,0
1994   UTA   4,0
1991   GSW   4,1
1996   UTA   5,7


So 11 playoffs series, 4 times Spurs defense performed better than expected, 1 time basically at expectation level (1993) and 6 times worse than expectations. Doesn't look good for Robinson. Of course we should look closely at each series (for example I wouldn't blame DRob for 1991 as it was great coaching job by Nelson, who outcoached Larry Brown), but pattern seems rather clear.

----------------------
ShaqAttack3234 wrote:If someone really wants to pick Karl Malone, they're entitled to their opinion, but I don't want to hear any nonsense about Kobe benefiting from Shaq's presence individually as much as Malone benefited from Stockton's game, it really is comical.

Even an older, more skilled Karl Malone was usually assisted on roughly 80% of his baskets, and that was with Stockton only playing 30 mpg! That's very high for a big man. Unusually high. Big men who aren't being spoonfed will usually be anywhere from 50% to 70%.

Unfortunately, we don't have a big sample size to go by of Malone without Stockton, but what we do have suggests he benefited greatly.

1998
With Stockton- 27.7 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 4 apg, 2.9 TO, 0.9 bpg, 1.2 spg, 53.2 FG%, 77.1 FT%, 60.1 TS%, 63 games
Without Stockton- 24.9 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 3.6 apg, 3.6 TO, 52.3 FG%, 72.4 FT%, 58.2 TS%, 18 games

Is it coincidence that most who watched both players thought Stockton set up Malone a lot, and in the season we finally see Malone in a significant sample size without Stockton his scoring drops by almost 3 ppg, his FG% drops a bit and his turnovers go up dramatically? And this was with Stockton only playing 29 mpg as opposed to the 35-36 mpg he usually played or the 37-39 mpg he was playing late 80's/early 90's!


I agree and I want to add one piece of information: how many of Malone's baskets were assisted by Stockton. Of course we don't have data prior to 1997, but from '97 to '99 Malone was still on MVP level, while John clearly declined. Yet, he set up Karl as often as prime Nash Amare:

Code: Select all

season   % asisted by Stockton      
1997   34,0      
1998   31,3      
1999   33,8      
2000   36,6      
2001   35,2      
2002   34,3      
2003   37,3   



Code: Select all

         
   season   % assisted by Nash   
   2005   32,9   
   2007   35,4   
   2008   39,5   
   2009   33,4   
   2010   39,3   


IMO that's very telling.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#276 » by ardee » Fri Aug 1, 2014 7:28 am

acrossthecourt wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:
acrossthecourt wrote:Synergy is an awful way to judge defense and it's completely untested.

Novak famously had one of the best defensive ratings on Synergy in 2013. Why? Most of that is because they put him on weak defenders.

This is honestly hilarious coming from someone who's been spouting off +/- numbers left & right. :lol:

The beauty of Synergy is that we can look at Novak, and put the context of who he actually guards into the equation. And we have individual based metrics...not lineup data.

...How is this nonsense? Synergy is not tested, and advanced +/- stats are.

No, you can't put the context of who he guards into the equation because that data is lacking on Synergy. That's the problem.


Advanced plus-minus is hardly proven. The only people who swear by it is a small community on this board.

Synergy is used by multiple NBA teams and basketball think-tanks.

There's a reason RAPM is available for anyone to see and Synergy needs to be paid for. The two are miles apart in terms of credibility.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#277 » by kabstah » Fri Aug 1, 2014 8:15 am

ardee wrote:Advanced plus-minus is hardly proven. The only people who swear by it is a small community on this board.

Synergy is used by multiple NBA teams and basketball think-tanks.

There's a reason RAPM is available for anyone to see and Synergy needs to be paid for. The two are miles apart in terms of credibility.

The reason that RAPM is still freely available is because RAPM is easily calculable as long as we have play by play transcripts. Many of its big name supporters like Ilardi, Engelmann, Barzilai, etc. have been employed by NBA teams, so let's not pretend that +/- doesn't have professional credibility.

As far as synergy goes, it suffers from the same fundamental problem as traditional box scores: it treats basketball as a series of 1 on 1 events. If you look at how many total defensive possessions that synergy logs for any single player, the problem will become obvious.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#278 » by john248 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 8:48 am

My official vote is for Kobe Bryant. Almost 2am, so I'm going to get a quick vote in now that I'm almost caught up with the thread. Again, I actually like Dr. J here since I feel he's a better defender, esp help defense, about a decade where he was one of the top players in the league, incredible final performer, but it doesn't look like he's going to get any run here. As for Kobe, most of the numbers have been hammered out repeatedly. I'm not as harsh on Kobe's defense as some are. He was an elite defender during the 3 peat years. While it would've been nice for him to keep up that effort during the time when the Lakers weren't contending, his 2nd championship run is underrated where he was still a solid defender and put effort on that end. Positionally, its just not one where he can have a ton of impact but at least can make it tougher for the opposing ball handler or wing scorer. Offensively, he's one of the best given his high volume scoring at good efficiency while also being able to initiate and being a playmaker.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#279 » by Baller2014 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 8:57 am

RSCD3_ wrote:I think if you're going to credit malone's great regular seasons at an older age l, then you should hold him to a standard based on that, for his playoff performances

Not say " look how well he played in the 1997 regular season "

And then " well he was 34 in the 1997 nba playoffs "


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Sure. But K.Malone was still awesome in his old age... he just wasn't quite as good as 25-30 year old Karl Malone... that's what's annoying me in this comparison. Shaqattack is telling me only a 5 year stretch of your prime matters to him, and then he's picking the wrong stretch! I don't maintain Karl Malone was equally good every year of his career, of course he wasn't (Kobe certainly wasn't), but he was playing at an awesomely high level throughout his career. He peaks about where Kobe does in the playoffs thanks to his notably superior D, is better in the RS, has more longevity, and his prime as a whole (and career as a whole) is better. It's not like Karl is even playing badly in the stretch Shaqattack identifies. For instance, he points me to Karl's "paltry" 50% TS during one playoffs... completely ignoring that prime Kobe had a TS of around 50% multiple times! (because Shaqattack's methodology disregards those years, because only the 5 year stretch he's picked counts under his criteria).

Shaqattack is relying way too much on a media driven narrative of "Karl Malone made the finals, so he must have become a different player!" when statistically he clearly was at his best from 88-93... which makes sense, because players tend to be better at age 25-30 than 34-35. The quote from Karl Malone is just the usual meaningless player hyperbolic comment that players make every year. If you asked Karl Malone in any given year of his career how he felt, I imagine he'd have said much the same thing ("I'm in the shape of my life, the rest of the league better watch out!"). All athletes to some extent, but guys like Karl Malone especially, have to have this mindset to go out and compete. Our job analysing players careers is to disregard the false narrative and silly hyperbolic comments, and focus on the evidence.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#280 » by Baller2014 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 9:00 am

john248 wrote:My official vote is for Kobe Bryant. Almost 2am, so I'm going to get a quick vote in now that I'm almost caught up with the thread. Again, I actually like Dr. J here since I feel he's a better defender, esp help defense, about a decade where he was one of the top players in the league, incredible final performer, but it doesn't look like he's going to get any run here. As for Kobe, most of the numbers have been hammered out repeatedly. I'm not as harsh on Kobe's defense as some are. He was an elite defender during the 3 peat years. While it would've been nice for him to keep up that effort during the time when the Lakers weren't contending, his 2nd championship run is underrated where he was still a solid defender and put effort on that end. Positionally, its just not one where he can have a ton of impact but at least can make it tougher for the opposing ball handler or wing scorer. Offensively, he's one of the best given his high volume scoring at good efficiency while also being able to initiate and being a playmaker.


Just my 2 cents, but I count over 7 people who have said they want to vote Dr J here (not including you). You'd do better to vote for your actual first preference candidate and see what happens. Dr J could very well get up here. Most of the 44 voters who've participated in the last few threads haven't voted (in fact barely a 3rd have). You'll always be able to preference Kobe in a run off, and it's clear he'll be in a run off with someone.

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