Rosenthal: David Price to the Tigers

[satyr9]

Would a package of

Hutchison (young mid rotation starter under control like Smyly)
Barretto (young high potential SS in A ball like Adames)
Pompey (young high potential OF hitting well on AA)

Not have trumped that offer? Even if you need to replace Pompey with Norris would it not be worth it to get a top 5 MLB pitcher?

It's not quite right. I think you have to push someone like Lawrie for Pompey, 'cause TB must have wanted stuff that plays for them right now, which differs from their history. I'm not saying I think it's the best value for them, but Pompey isn't equivalent to what they got. And the bigger disconnect is that for this deal to make sense for TB, they don't see Adames and Barreto as equivalent, they have to really love him and the league must value him very highly as well. In fact, whether we think your package is close or not, I very much doubt TB management does and their opinion is the one that counts.

Still, even if I'm wrong about their valuation on Adames, this is an argument for non-AL East fans teams to make, 'cause I promise there would've been a huge inter-divisional tax, to the tune of that package plus Norris or Pompey. It's all those NL teams in the midst of a crazy race that did nothing that should be kicking themselves today.

The deal itself, well I'm letting myself get talked into the deal a bit, except I hate that Smyly is already arb eligible for them, albeit as a super-2. No leverage to get their Moore/Archer type savings for the long haul. Franklin is a quite nice solid third piece, so it's okay, certainly better than when I thought he was the second piece to Smyly, but you have to like Smyly a lot more than I do to like this trade.

And Adames is something, but don't ask me what. If TB's scouts hit that one, then this trade is fine or better than fine. I do think for trades like this the rule for the GM trading the star has to be to make sure you get the right single prospect back first. Those 4-5 piece kitchen sink deals can look like a haul, but the majority of the successful deals are the ones where you point and say it's this guy first and we'll figure out the rest once you say that can happen.

I would not have thought Adames would be a name for starting a Price conversation, but I have to respect the amazing job TB does and assume they know what's what. And prospect value changes so fast that Adames might really be this valuable around the league. I kind of doubt he's risen that high, but ask yourself how valuable was Pompey 6 months ago compared to now? Adames is putting up similar(ish) numbers a league below Pompey and he's a SS and 3 years younger. He could easily be a guy that all of sudden after BA and BP make their calls and come up with next year's lists he's top 20-30 next year and expected to end up top 5 by the time he conquers AA by 20. If it's Corey Seager's name in Adames spot, this all would look far closer to right, so that's the kind of value I think you have to assume TB assigned to Adames in this trade. In our wildest dreams I don't think we have those kinds of lofty expectations for Barreto. That and I'll assume Adames can actually catch a Baseball.

I also think I got my glasses shaded by the Shields/Myers deal. I really expected one of the top 5 soon-to-be arms to be an absolute must have in the deal to make TB pull the trigger. Basically nothing lower on a top chart than the Stephenson/Heaney range. Certainly not a control guy with admittedly very strong numbers who's already burned two years of cheap. That's the part that really still shocks me. Smyly's good, but low ceiling high floor and he's not going to be incredibly cheap for very long. Still affordable, but not 100 starts for 1.5m type cheap.

Yesterday was a weird day. Almost went completely against the enormous trend of trading now entirely for future. It was a lot of now for cheaper/controllable now and far less future.

[_venom_]

I agree that each organization looks at prospects differently and maybe Tampa really values the guys they got but I find it hard to believe that the Jays couldn't have beaten that offer even without moving Lawrie/Sanchez/Stroman. Even if you have to give up Hutchison/Norris/Pompey/Barretto for Price I think it would be worth it. Worst case is you make that trade miss the playoffs and start next season terribly. You could still move Price next year at the deadline as a rental (like Lester) and recoup a lot of what you gave up. I don't know its just hard for me to accept the Jays not making a big time move like that when they're having a good year and have two of the best hitters in baseball in their primes signed to friendly contracts. You also have guys like Morrow and Rasmus expiring this offseason which opens up money on the payroll to take on a guy like Price.

[Schad]

I agree that each organization looks at prospects differently and maybe Tampa really values the guys they got but I find it hard to believe that the Jays couldn't have beaten that offer even without moving Lawrie/Sanchez/Stroman. Even if you have to give up Hutchison/Norris/Pompey/Barretto for Price I think it would be worth it. Worst case is you make that trade miss the playoffs and start next season terribly. You could still move Price next year at the deadline as a rental (like Lester) and recoup a lot of what you gave up. I don't know its just hard for me to accept the Jays not making a big time move like that when they're having a good year and have two of the best hitters in baseball in their primes signed to friendly contracts. You also have guys like Morrow and Rasmus expiring this offseason which opens up money on the payroll to take on a guy like Price.

Hutch/Norris/Pompey/Barreto probably does get it done, but you couldn't recoup half of that in a trade when he's a rental...that's the sort of move where, if you miss, you're looking at a pretty hellish few years.

On re-signing him, great though Price is (and young for a free agent), you can already see his decline on the horizon. His fastball's starting to fade, something that isn't a big problem at the moment (it's still plenty good enough) but might be within a couple years of reducing him below the level of ace, and a year or two more from reducing his contract to an albatross. Sadly, that's the case with virtually all 'superstar' eight-to-ten year deal...you get maybe a couple seasons where they outperform it, a couple more where they maybe-kinda live up to it, and then a long tail of four or five years where their contract is terribly burdensome.

[satyr9]

This probably isn't the right place, but you mentioned expirings like payroll gets easier for AA next year. On the money front, it only gets tighter next year, not looser. Contracts going out:

M.Cabrera -8m (UFA)
B.Morrow -7m (1m buyout, made 8m this year)
C.Rasmus -7m (UFA)
J.Happ -5m (0.2m buyout, made 5.2m this year)
C.Janssen -4m (UFA)
S.Santos -3m (0.75 buyout, made 3.75 this year)
E.Rogers - 1.85m (waivered/claimed)
-35.85m

So 35.85m plus any payroll increase to replace that bunch or re-sign, that sounds promising. Except first you have to account for internal raises:
J.Reyes +6m
D.McGowan +2.5m
D.Navarro +2m
M.Buehrle +1m
E.Encarnacion +1m
+12.5m

and arbitration raises, which are less predictable, but there aren't a lot to worry about:
B.Lawrie +2m (first year from 500k to a guess)
B.Cecil +1m (second year 1.3 to 2.3)
+3m

You could decide whether Delabar makes it back and gets arb and I don't really understand where Hutch stands (young guys and long injuries), so there's probably some odds and ends I'm leaving out, but there's also 100's of ways for the Jays to count things on their books. Playing too fine with these numbers is unnecessary 'cause we can only create a foggy picture of the situation at best.

So take 15.5m off the 35.85m and now you've got 20.35m to replace M.Cabrera, C.Rasmus, C.Janssen, and J.Happ, let alone improve deficiencies. Best case, from a payroll perspective, is if Gose and Sanchez take Happ's and an OF spot, you've still got 20m for Janssen and LF. With a small payroll increase, say from 140-150m, you've got room for both and 1 small upgrade somewhere, but there's certainly no real money lying around to make splashes or cover D.Price's salary, not even his final arbitration salary that'll be close to 20m, let alone the 30m extension he's expecting afterwards.

And to be clear, I'm not advocating for Rogers' payrolls or spending strategies, but I'm not in a position to change them either, so this is the hand that's dealt. Maybe some playoff revenue changes that, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

[Santoki]

^^Reyes and Buehrle contracts are the difference. You've got at least $41 million or just under 1/3rd of payroll on two guys who are slightly above league-average players at best going into next season.

Every time I look at Reyes' contract I throw up a little bit. $22 million owed for the next three years with a $4 million buyout in year 4. Dear god what a horrible contract. At least with Buehrle he's a UFA in 2016 so there's only one more year to commit to him and he'll give you #3-starter quality almost guaranteed.

Reyes' contract is going to rival Vernon Wells for worst contract in Jays history in the near future.

[MikeM]

I don't think Reyes will decline that sharply. I think he can maintain a .750ish OPS for the life of the deal. Maybe his defence gets better at 2B which is where he might find himself in a couple years.

Anyways, after Buehrle and Romero expire, he'd be our only bad contract really.

[distracted]

^^Reyes and Buehrle contracts are the difference. You've got at least $41 million or just under 1/3rd of payroll on two guys who are slightly above league-average players at best going into next season.

Every time I look at Reyes' contract I throw up a little bit. $22 million owed for the next three years with a $4 million buyout in year 4. Dear god what a horrible contract. At least with Buehrle he's a UFA in 2016 so there's only one more year to commit to him and he'll give you #3-starter quality almost guaranteed.

Reyes' contract is going to rival Vernon Wells for worst contract in Jays history in the near future.

Reyes' contract will never rivals Wells'. When we traded Wells he had 4 years and 86 million left. 3 years 70 for Reyes is already better, amazingly. And he'll spend the last few years with the Dodgers.