RealGM Top 100 List #14

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#221 » by ceiling raiser » Mon Aug 4, 2014 7:29 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
fpliii wrote:Going with Dirk here, though I don't have an issue with the Kobe vote at this point.

His ability to score on a great volume efficiently really sells this for me. Ever since developing his killer post game, he's been essentially unguardable (shutupandjam's research a few threads ago really illustrates how dominant he's been in the post). The type of coverage he gets creates unbelievable opportunities for his teammates. One of the craziest mismatches we've seen. Some great posts by Chuck, Q, and others in here so far, hoping to see more in the next couple of threads.

A few things:

1) Can we really say Dirk ever put up "great" volume? He's pretty much a 20-25 ppg scorer, which is very good, but he's actually only ever been Top 5 in PPG in 2 seasons.

2) How has he been essentially unguardable? The majority of his shots are assisted, and his post play isn't on another level from other top post players.

Spoiler:
2002 - 69.2% FGM assisted
2003 - 65.5%
2004 - 71.9%
2005 - 53.4%
2006 - 50.7%
2007 - 50.1%
2008 - 54.6%
2009 - 55.6%
2010 - 61.5%
2011 - 63.1%
2012 - 63.6%
2013 - 66.2%
2014 - 59.2%


3) How is the coverage he creates from his presence on court, any different from other greats. Seems like that would be the same across the board. It's not exactly like Dirk was a great playmaker.

4) How can we put Dirk this high when he only has 4 seasons where he was a Top 5 player?

Not to comedown on him, I just don't see how he's this high at all.

Hey man, looks like tsherkin beat me to it. Two things I want to add though:

1) I don't place much value in box score derived stats in general, but for Dirk they're pretty dangerous. A lot of the baskets he's assisted on aren't open looks, since he's covered veey tightly off the ball (like an MJ or a Kobe). Even though that article I linked wasn't about him, I expect him to rate very highly in terms of both "gravity score" and "distraction score" when they become more public. In 2011 in particular (though in other years as well when he's posted up a lot), it wasn't terribly uncommon to see him hard doubled off ball.

2) A lot of my conclusions come from watching tape, though shutupandjam's data is great and drives the point home. I'm on my phone now but Dirk's PPP in his high volume post up seasons was great across the board, when scoring against single coverage, doubles, and when passing out.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#222 » by Clyde Frazier » Mon Aug 4, 2014 7:30 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
fpliii wrote:Going with Dirk here, though I don't have an issue with the Kobe vote at this point.

His ability to score on a great volume efficiently really sells this for me. Ever since developing his killer post game, he's been essentially unguardable (shutupandjam's research a few threads ago really illustrates how dominant he's been in the post). The type of coverage he gets creates unbelievable opportunities for his teammates. One of the craziest mismatches we've seen. Some great posts by Chuck, Q, and others in here so far, hoping to see more in the next couple of threads.

A few things:

1) Can we really say Dirk ever put up "great" volume? He's pretty much a 20-25 ppg scorer, which is very good, but he's actually only ever been Top 5 in PPG in 2 seasons.

2) How has he been essentially unguardable? The majority of his shots are assisted, and his post play isn't on another level from other top post players.


From the 08 season on, he's basically been un-guardable. And yes, we have to use the eye test here, because anyone who's watched him enough since then can clearly see this. I know i'm being emphatic about it, but there was a real change in his game since 08. He used to let smaller defenders irritate him and force up bad shots. That ended, and he gained a new sense of patience, realizing he could just shoot over him, taking his footwork to a new level. He could still blow by bigger defenders with ease.

He also changed his philosophy as a 3 point shooter, and the offense wasn't geared around getting him 3s. He initially cut down the 3 pt attempts in general, and then as they crept back up, he was taking more transition 3s and 3s as a 2nd or 3rd option in an offensive set. His 2011 playoff run put this on full display, as his other dominant post seasons prior to that fell short due to lack of support from his teammates.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#223 » by ceiling raiser » Mon Aug 4, 2014 7:31 pm

Samurai wrote:
fpliii wrote:Actually, how do we feel about West's range? I know there's anecdotal evidence of him hitting some super long shots, but are there any mentions of his ability to hit from the corner (I think I've heard this specifically about Oscar, so maybe it was said for West as well) or anything else (I know the ABA called their three, with the same line as today, the "25-footer" at times, maybe that language was used to describe West's jumper at times as well)?


From what I've seen, West shot more from the top of the key and elbows more than the corners, although I did see him beat the Warriors with a deep corner shot as time expired.

Between he and Oscar, I would say West shot more from the "corners" (left corner more than right in games I saw) and Oscar shot much more from the "baseline". The distinction is that Oscar loved to post up on the baseline and would take a lot of 8-10 foot jumpers from the baseline but not from deep in the corner. West also posted up some on the baseline but not as often as Oscar. West was more likely to take the 18-22 footer in the corner than Oscar would.

If you are interested in anecdotal info on Wests range, I can post that later tonight.

Thanks for the response. :) Love insight from people who watched these greats.

If it's not too much trouble, anecdotal info would be great too. I might have to consider changing my vote to West here.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#224 » by An Unbiased Fan » Mon Aug 4, 2014 7:32 pm

tsherkin wrote:Right, but that's not necessarily relevant. He's scored as much as he's had to in the RS, typically in distributed offenses and of late on lower pace teams. He has 5 seasons of 25+ ppg, including a pair over 26. He's averaged 25.6 ppg in the playoffs... 26.2 from 02 through 12.

Yeah, he didn't shoot as much as Jordan or Kobe, but he did what he needed to. That's great volume, particularly at the levels of efficiency he posted.

Not doubting Dirk's scoring ability, I was just critiquing the "great" volume statement. Guys like MJ/Kobe, and even Malone, West, had to carry a larger burden as offensive anchors.

The assisted range that you posted here is similar or lower than most post players, so that's not really a meaningful comment, given what we know about his obvious ability to isolate. It's true that he moves really well without the ball, but are you about to penalize Kevin Durant for getting assisted on 56.5% of his shots in 2011, when he scored a league-high 27.7 ppg? No, it doesn't make sense, because we know that a lot of those assisted buckets come from off-ball movement where he creates his own look that way and receives a simple chest pass... or it's a quick dump into the post (in Dirk's case) that turns into a fast jumper after he's attained and held position, then made a move on his opponent for a good look.

Actually its not. Guys like Lebron, Kobe, are in the 25-40 range typically. Durant gets assisted in alot of his FGs, but I've brought that up many times for him too.

It's counter the "unguardable" statement, because Dirk isn't creating the shots, as much as getting set up for them. He's obviously a great shooter liek Durant, so both put up great efficiency, but Dirk isn't an ATG level shot creator.
By whose estimation was he only a top 5 player in 4 seasons out of his career?

We're talking about an MVP player who was a dominant offensive presence and twice led some fairly unimpressive teams (by the standards of Finals squads) to the championship game, winning it in 2011 with a mythic performance.

Is he guaranteed to slot in, no, but to be dismissive of his candidacy is to ignore too much about the nature of his game and career.

The question came up earlier in discussions, and most view Dirk as a Top 5 player in 05-07, 11.

You say he was a MVP player with a dominant offensive presence...but Dirk's MVP shares is not impressive. There are numerous players well ahead of him still on the board. Offensively, his lackluster AST% numbers which are lower than nearly everyone discussed so far in the project(even centers), along with most of his shots being setup for him, make me lower offensive impact. Defensively, well we know he didn't even start on that side of the court til 2005.

I'm usually the guy arguing for Dirk in comparisons, but #14 is way too high. What's his case over better 2-way guys with more longevity like Dr. J, West. At the PF spot, I still struggle to see why he's ahead of Barkley or Pettit. Malone certainly has a case, though many will penalized him for his playoffs. Dirk isn't even necessarily a Top 5 player of his era.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#225 » by 90sAllDecade » Mon Aug 4, 2014 7:35 pm

This has been a fascinating thread.

I've been leaning towards Jerry West, but the Dr. J and Karl Malone posts have been great.

I'm watching West and Dr. J's defense and Erving's defense seem's a little overrated right now. His defensive motor doesn't look as good as Jerry's and I'm wondering if he is a "When he's focused" defensive player. He has all the tools to lock people down, but I don't know if he tried to do that consistently.

I'm going to watch some of the other games posted if I can find them and perhaps it will change my outlook.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#226 » by An Unbiased Fan » Mon Aug 4, 2014 7:42 pm

fpliii wrote:Hey man, looks like tsherkin beat me to it. Two things I want to add though:

1) I don't place much value in box score derived stats in general, but for Dirk they're pretty dangerous. A lot of the baskets he's assisted on aren't open looks, since he's covered veey tightly off the ball (like an MJ or a Kobe). Even though that article I linked wasn't about him, I expect him to rate very highly in terms of both "gravity score" and "distraction score" when they become more public. In 2011 in particular (though in other years as well when he's posted up a lot), it wasn't terribly uncommon to see him hard doubled off ball.

Ok....but we don't even know his gravity score yet, so how can we give him credit for it?

I get that many of those looks aren't open, but still, his rate of assisted FGs is very high for his volume. Dirk ahs always been more of a guy who takes what he's given, but never seemed to have that 5th gear. He's had only 19 40-point games in his career.

2) A lot of my conclusions come from watching tape, though shutupandjam's data is great and drives the point home. I'm on my phone now but Dirk's PPP in his high volume post up seasons was great across the board, when scoring against single coverage, doubles, and when passing out.

Yes, but outside Dirk's scoring versatility, what's his case at #14. His playmaking is not that noteworthy, nor is his defense. it just seems like Dirk's whole case revolves around his scoring.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#227 » by tsherkin » Mon Aug 4, 2014 7:45 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:Not doubting Dirk's scoring ability, I was just critiquing the "great" volume statement. Guys like MJ/Kobe, and even Malone, West, had to carry a larger burden as offensive anchors.


Jordan is in a separate category. Kobe tried to be MJ. You can be great without emulating a handful of guys. Dirk was the focus of his offense and took over as required, he didn't need to shoot as much, so he didn't. 25, 26 ppg on that efficiency, that's great under any sensible definition. He was top 10 in ppg from 02-12, aside from 07, and is 6th among active players in career scoring average. There is a difference between "great" and "greatest."

Actually its not. Guys like Lebron, Kobe, are in the 25-40 range typically. Durant gets assisted in alot of his FGs, but I've brought that up many times for him too.


You've misread. I said "most post players." Most post players are not freak wings who also post. Look at Duncan, Shaq, Dream, Kareem, etc. and again, Durant's 2011 season.

[quoe]
It's counter the "unguardable" statement, because Dirk isn't creating the shots, as much as getting set up for them. He's obviously a great shooter liek Durant, so both put up great efficiency, but Dirk isn't an ATG level shot creator.
[/quote]

Why assume the assist maker is creating he shot if Dirk is the one doing the work off ball to get open for an elementary-school level pass? Or if it goes into the post for a quick shot? No credit for his off ball work seems... foolish. And 2011 seems to put the lie to the idea he can't create at a super high level, though so does his whole career in general.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#228 » by Jim Naismith » Mon Aug 4, 2014 7:46 pm

According to RPoY, here are #1 players every year whose RPoY share for that year was at least .970. (This is equivalent to 90% of the voters agreeing the player is #1, and 10% saying he is #2).

Players not on this list: Duncan, Kobe, Karl Malone, Dirk, David Robinson, Erving, West

Moses is only dominant #1 that has not been ranked.


The Dominant Ones
2. 2012-13 LeBron James 1.000
3. 2011-12 LeBron James 1.000


11. 2003-04 Kevin Garnett 1.000

14. 2000-01 Shaquille O'Neal 1.000
15. 1999-00 Shaquille O'Neal 1.000

18. 1996-97 Michael Jordan 0.986
19. 1995-96 Michael Jordan 1.000

21. 1993-94 Hakeem Olajuwon 0.988
22. 1992-93 Michael Jordan 0.978
23. 1991-92 Michael Jordan 1.000
24. 1990-91 Michael Jordan 1.000

26. 1988-89 Michael Jordan 1.000

28. 1986-87 Magic Johnson 0.974
29. 1985-86 Larry Bird 1.000

31. 1983-84 Larry Bird 1.000
32. 1982-83 Moses Malone 1.000
33. 1981-82 Moses Malone 0.971

35. 1979-80 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1.000


41. 1973-74 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 0.981

43. 1971-72 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 0.981
44. 1970-71 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1.000

48. 1966-67 Wilt Chamberlain 1.000

50. 1964-65 Bill Russell 1.000

52. 1962-63 Bill Russell 0.975

54. 1960-61 Bill Russell 1.000

56. 1958-59 Bill Russell 1.000
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#229 » by ardee » Mon Aug 4, 2014 7:49 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
4) How can we put Dirk this high when he only has 4 seasons where he was a Top 5 player?



Let's just look at Dirk's prime from 2001-2014 and where he ranked:

2001: Maybe a bottom end top 10 player. Top 15 at the very worst.
2002: Top 6-8 range. Only Shaq, Duncan, Kobe, Mac, and KG were definitely better.
2003: 6th. Behind those same five. But he's definitely sixth IMO.
2004: He has an argument for 5th behind KG, Duncan, Shaq and Kobe. I have him 5th, I don't see anyone else with a really strong challenge. Top 6-8 at the worst.
2005: I think he was 2nd behind Nash. Taking that mediocre roster to 58 wins was a miracle. Let's call it top 5.
2006: 2nd behind Kobe. Let's say top 5 again, but honestly it's really top 3 at the worst.
2007: I have him 4th behind Kobe, Duncan and Nash. Let's say top 5 again.
2008: I have him 5th behind Kobe, Paul, LeBron and KG. Let's say top 6-8.
2009: Top 6-8, only five guys definitely above him: LeBron, Kobe, Wade, Paul and Dwight.
2010: Top 6-8 again, in the range with Durant, Nash and Dwight behind LeBron, Kobe, Wade.
2011: I think he's consensus no. 1, let's say top 3 at worst.
2012: Top 6-8 again, only LBJ, Durant and Paul definitely ahead of him. Same range as KG, Kobe and Westbrook.
2013: Bad year, probably fringe top 20.
2014: Back in the top 10 I think.

So over 14 years (from the most conservative standpoint), he has two top 3 years, two top 5 years, seven top 6-8 years, two top 10ish years, and one more or less irrelevant year.

That's amazing longevity at a high level. I don't think you should reward him for being 5th and punish him for being 6th or 7th, that's kinda arbitary.

Anyway, that was really conservative. I think you can argue him to be top 5 every year from 2002-2011 without really stretching the bonds of reality. I wouldn't, but I really wouldn't object if someone thought he was top 5 in a year like 2003 or 2009.

Even being sixth in years like that is a hell of an achievement. Those are two of the most loaded seasons in NBA history.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#230 » by An Unbiased Fan » Mon Aug 4, 2014 7:49 pm

Clyde Frazier wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:
fpliii wrote:Going with Dirk here, though I don't have an issue with the Kobe vote at this point.

His ability to score on a great volume efficiently really sells this for me. Ever since developing his killer post game, he's been essentially unguardable (shutupandjam's research a few threads ago really illustrates how dominant he's been in the post). The type of coverage he gets creates unbelievable opportunities for his teammates. One of the craziest mismatches we've seen. Some great posts by Chuck, Q, and others in here so far, hoping to see more in the next couple of threads.

A few things:

1) Can we really say Dirk ever put up "great" volume? He's pretty much a 20-25 ppg scorer, which is very good, but he's actually only ever been Top 5 in PPG in 2 seasons.

2) How has he been essentially unguardable? The majority of his shots are assisted, and his post play isn't on another level from other top post players.


From the 08 season on, he's basically been un-guardable. And yes, we have to use the eye test here, because anyone who's watched him enough since then can clearly see this. I know i'm being emphatic about it, but there was a real change in his game since 08. He used to let smaller defenders irritate him and force up bad shots. That ended, and he gained a new sense of patience, realizing he could just shoot over him, taking his footwork to a new level. He could still blow by bigger defenders with ease.

He also changed his philosophy as a 3 point shooter, and the offense wasn't geared around getting him 3s. He initially cut down the 3 pt attempts in general, and then as they crept back up, he was taking more transition 3s and 3s as a 2nd or 3rd option in an offensive set. His 2011 playoff run put this on full display, as his other dominant post seasons prior to that fell short due to lack of support from his teammates.

Every great individual scorer is in essence, "unguardable". Dirk wasn't putting up 30+ ppg volume that we've seen from a Durant, for example. I get that his scoring skill/versatility was great, but I'm not seeing exceptional results from it.

And then we look at the 2008 mark, which means what for Dirk from 01-08? Again, it just seems that his scoring skills are holding too much weight. How does it trump West or Dr. J who had great offensive impacts too, but were also better in other areas?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#231 » by ceiling raiser » Mon Aug 4, 2014 7:51 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
fpliii wrote:Hey man, looks like tsherkin beat me to it. Two things I want to add though:

1) I don't place much value in box score derived stats in general, but for Dirk they're pretty dangerous. A lot of the baskets he's assisted on aren't open looks, since he's covered veey tightly off the ball (like an MJ or a Kobe). Even though that article I linked wasn't about him, I expect him to rate very highly in terms of both "gravity score" and "distraction score" when they become more public. In 2011 in particular (though in other years as well when he's posted up a lot), it wasn't terribly uncommon to see him hard doubled off ball.

Ok....but we don't even know his gravity score yet, so how can we give him credit for it?

I get that many of those looks aren't open, but still, his rate of assisted FGs is very high for his volume. Dirk ahs always been more of a guy who takes what he's given, but never seemed to have that 5th gear. He's had only 19 40-point games in his career.

2) A lot of my conclusions come from watching tape, though shutupandjam's data is great and drives the point home. I'm on my phone now but Dirk's PPP in his high volume post up seasons was great across the board, when scoring against single coverage, doubles, and when passing out.

Yes, but outside Dirk's scoring versatility, what's his case at #14. His playmaking is not that noteworthy, nor is his defense. it just seems like Dirk's whole case revolves around his scoring.

1) I'm not using it to give him credit apologies if it came off that way. I'm his suggestion that it would validate the eye test.

2) Pretty good rebounder, neutral defender (as I've said, I have too many concerns about 01-07 RAPM to use it here to form a strong opinion either way), but scoring is the bulk of his argument here. Even if he's not a top-shelf playmaker he's still a solid passer, and he gives you floor spacing as a shooter/decoy outside or demands doubles inside.

He's also the best candidate by default here IMO:

West - Handles are a concern (even if the criticism is exaggerated), and I need more evidence before quantifying his range.
Dr. J - Still don't know how I feel about his defense, and I'd like to read more about how he's play today with modern spacing.
Robinson - lorak raised some concerns about his playoff defense falling off. I do now think he was still a star post-injury for some time.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#232 » by An Unbiased Fan » Mon Aug 4, 2014 7:54 pm

ardee wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:
4) How can we put Dirk this high when he only has 4 seasons where he was a Top 5 player?



Let's just look at Dirk's prime from 2001-2014 and where he ranked:

2001: Maybe a bottom end top 10 player. Top 15 at the very worst.
2002: Top 6-8 range. Only Shaq, Duncan, Kobe, Mac, and KG were definitely better.
2003: 6th. Behind those same five. But he's definitely sixth IMO.
2004: He has an argument for 5th behind KG, Duncan, Shaq and Kobe. I have him 5th, I don't see anyone else with a really strong challenge. Top 6-8 at the worst.
2005: I think he was 2nd behind Nash. Taking that mediocre roster to 58 wins was a miracle. Let's call it top 5.
2006: 2nd behind Kobe. Let's say top 5 again, but honestly it's really top 3 at the worst.
2007: I have him 4th behind Kobe, Duncan and Nash. Let's say top 5 again.
2008: I have him 5th behind Kobe, Paul, LeBron and KG. Let's say top 6-8.
2009: Top 6-8, only five guys definitely above him: LeBron, Kobe, Wade, Paul and Dwight.
2010: Top 6-8 again, in the range with Durant, Nash and Dwight behind LeBron, Kobe, Wade.
2011: I think he's consensus no. 1, let's say top 3 at worst.
2012: Top 6-8 again, only LBJ, Durant and Paul definitely ahead of him. Same range as KG, Kobe and Westbrook.
2013: Bad year, probably fringe top 20.
2014: Back in the top 10 I think.

So over 14 years (from the most conservative standpoint), he has two top 3 years, two top 5 years, seven top 6-8 years, two top 10ish years, and one more or less irrelevant year.

That's amazing longevity at a high level. I don't think you should reward him for being 5th and punish him for being 6th or 7th, that's kinda arbitary.

Anyway, that was really conservative. I think you can argue him to be top 5 every year from 2002-2011 without really stretching the bonds of reality. I wouldn't, but I really wouldn't object if someone thought he was top 5 in a year like 2003 or 2009.

Even being sixth in years like that is a hell of an achievement. Those are two of the most loaded seasons in NBA history.

It's a great career arc, no doubt. The problem is that when you compare West, Dr. J, Moses, Pettit, and others, they all have better arcs. His competition is the big issue.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#233 » by penbeast0 » Mon Aug 4, 2014 7:55 pm

Jim Naismith wrote:According to RPoY, here are #1 players every year whose RPoY share for that year was at least .970. (This is equivalent to 90% of the voters agreeing the player is #1, and 10% saying he is #2).

Players not on this list: Duncan, Kobe, Karl Malone, Dirk, David Robinson, Erving, West

Moses is only dominant #1 that has not been ranked.


The Dominant Ones
2. 2012-13 LeBron James 1.000
3. 2011-12 LeBron James 1.000


11. 2003-04 Kevin Garnett 1.000

14. 2000-01 Shaquille O'Neal 1.000
15. 1999-00 Shaquille O'Neal 1.000

18. 1996-97 Michael Jordan 0.986
19. 1995-96 Michael Jordan 1.000

21. 1993-94 Hakeem Olajuwon 0.988
22. 1992-93 Michael Jordan 0.978
23. 1991-92 Michael Jordan 1.000
24. 1990-91 Michael Jordan 1.000

26. 1988-89 Michael Jordan 1.000

28. 1986-87 Magic Johnson 0.974
29. 1985-86 Larry Bird 1.000

31. 1983-84 Larry Bird 1.000
32. 1982-83 Moses Malone 1.000
33. 1981-82 Moses Malone 0.971

35. 1979-80 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1.000


41. 1973-74 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 0.981

43. 1971-72 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 0.981
44. 1970-71 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1.000

48. 1966-67 Wilt Chamberlain 1.000

50. 1964-65 Bill Russell 1.000

52. 1962-63 Bill Russell 0.975

54. 1960-61 Bill Russell 1.000

56. 1958-59 Bill Russell 1.000


What were Mikan's shares or did the project not go that far back? And how are West's shares when you take out the 3 contemporaries voted in ahead of him already -- Russell, Wilt, and Oscar? My guess is West garners a whole lot of 100%s from what's left in the 60s.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#234 » by An Unbiased Fan » Mon Aug 4, 2014 8:05 pm

fpliii wrote:2) Pretty good rebounder, neutral defender (as I've said, I have too many concerns about 01-07 RAPM to use it here to form a strong opinion either way), but scoring is the bulk of his argument here. Even if he's not a top-shelf playmaker he's still a solid passer, and he gives you floor spacing as a shooter/decoy outside or demands doubles inside.

He's also the best candidate by default here IMO:

West - Handles are a concern (even if the criticism is exaggerated), and I need more evidence before quantifying his range.
Dr. J - Still don't know how I feel about his defense, and I'd like to read more about how he's play today with modern spacing.
Robinson - lorak raised some concerns about his playoff defense falling off. I do now think he was still a star post-injury for some time.

West - West's handles would be better with today's rules on dribbling. His range was great from the videos we have of that time. The addition of his playmaking gives him a bit of an edge offensively over Dirk, IMO. Any player who gives a team elite scoring/facilitating is having a monster impact. Defensively, he was better than Dirk, though I wouldn't say the gap is that big due to him being on the perimeter.

Dr. J - Doc was more dominant on both sides of the court. He carried his early ABA teams defensively(he was the actual D-Anchor), and was still very good in the NBA, though I think the injury knock his D down a notch. We're talking about a 3 time ABA MVP.

Robionson - DRob was the better prime player. Dirk's longevity comes into play here. Not sure where I fall.


Still think Dirk's case is iffy in comparison to Barkley/Pettit/Malone at PF. Nevermind Moses lurking around.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#235 » by Clyde Frazier » Mon Aug 4, 2014 8:05 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
Clyde Frazier wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:A few things:

1) Can we really say Dirk ever put up "great" volume? He's pretty much a 20-25 ppg scorer, which is very good, but he's actually only ever been Top 5 in PPG in 2 seasons.

2) How has he been essentially unguardable? The majority of his shots are assisted, and his post play isn't on another level from other top post players.


From the 08 season on, he's basically been un-guardable. And yes, we have to use the eye test here, because anyone who's watched him enough since then can clearly see this. I know i'm being emphatic about it, but there was a real change in his game since 08. He used to let smaller defenders irritate him and force up bad shots. That ended, and he gained a new sense of patience, realizing he could just shoot over him, taking his footwork to a new level. He could still blow by bigger defenders with ease.

He also changed his philosophy as a 3 point shooter, and the offense wasn't geared around getting him 3s. He initially cut down the 3 pt attempts in general, and then as they crept back up, he was taking more transition 3s and 3s as a 2nd or 3rd option in an offensive set. His 2011 playoff run put this on full display, as his other dominant post seasons prior to that fell short due to lack of support from his teammates.

Every great individual scorer is in essence, "unguardable". Dirk wasn't putting up 30+ ppg volume that we've seen from a Durant, for example. I get that his scoring skill/versatility was great, but I'm not seeing exceptional results from it.

And then we look at the 2008 mark, which means what for Dirk from 01-08? Again, it just seems that his scoring skills are holding too much weight. How does it trump West or Dr. J who had great offensive impacts too, but were also better in other areas?


Kobe's off the table, but he's the first player that came to mind as not being "un-guardable".

http://bkref.com/tiny/t4OP7

http://bkref.com/tiny/axHOp

I would've preferred to use TS% under 50% as the criteria, but it doesn't seem to be available. Kobe has only played in 57 more games than dirk over the course of their careers, yet has 100+ more games scoring 20+ and shooting under 40% from the field. The guy is known as one of the best scorers of all time, but as I see it, it's purely from a volume perspective. Kobe's improved versatility as his career went on is unquestioned, but his shot selection never got to the point where I considered him un-guardable. You could force him into gunner games more easily than someone like dirk.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#236 » by penbeast0 » Mon Aug 4, 2014 8:07 pm

Baller2014 wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:So at what point of time can we not put the asterisk of "his era" when discussing players? At what point are players not punished for their era in your opinion?

I certainly think the NBA had evolved a lot by the end of West's career, so say 1970 onwards. The pace was still a bit of a factor, but the level of competition was not as problematic as the 60's had mostly been. There are reasons for this I go into in depth in earlier threads (more blacks, more professional league, etc).


That's what I thought you were coming up with. There was a magical revolution right at the end of the 50s as the hook shot/two handed set shot generation retired and the true jump shooters took over the league creating a real revolution from about 58 to 61 in the actual style of play (in my opinion). If this was where you were drawing the line it would make sense but I don't see one at the end of the 60s to 70s anywhere near similar.

You are discounting the effect of the biggest expansion in NBA history (expansion has been shown to have a strong statistical effect), player's playing for league jumping contracts destroying team cohesion, cocaine entering the league, etc. all because you think there was some magical revolution in the way basketball was being played in 1970? What was it? I can point to specific stylistic changes from the late 50s to the ealry 60s together with a clear and obvious statistical correlation. Can you point to anything other than more money that significantly changes between 68 and 72?

Makes little sense to me but that's your opinion.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#237 » by Jim Naismith » Mon Aug 4, 2014 8:12 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
Jim Naismith wrote:
Players not on this list: Duncan, Kobe, Karl Malone, Dirk, David Robinson, Erving, West

Moses is only dominant #1 that has not been ranked.

What were Mikan's shares or did the project not go that far back?



No shares for Mikan, since 1954-55 was the first season covered by the project.

penbeast0 wrote:And how are West's shares when you take out the 3 contemporaries voted in ahead of him already -- Russell, Wilt, and Oscar? My guess is West garners a whole lot of 100%s from what's left in the 60s.


You're correct.

And if you remove Kareem, Magic, Bird, and Jordan from the 80s, Moses would have even more undisputed #1 seasons.

The problem for West is that such rivals actually existed in the real world.

Moses' merit is that he dominated despite excellent rivals.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#238 » by Owly » Mon Aug 4, 2014 8:13 pm

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:I have a serious problem with people voting Karl Malone over Dirk.
Unless you really value a lot longevity and RS play, Dirk has so much better as a playoff performer consistently in his career that the case shouldn't be there.
To me better playoff performer => better player and better career, great RS stats is a nice to have but that's not what top15 players are made of.

Counter arguments would be that playoff stats are more influenced by luck (smaller samples, luck of the matchups you happen to face, luck of injuries, whether your opponents happen to be hot or cold) and other factors out of a players control (if you're a singular focus of your teams offense you're easier to defend in the playoffs; quality of coaching; opposing team quality).

Through his prime Malone's playoff stats are solid by most standards, albeit below what you'd expect for a player at this point in this list (89-00 PER: 23.2 ; WS/48: .166; Isiah who made his name in the playoffs, if you cut off poor seasons at just 29 and 30 - and he didn't make the playoffs in his poorest years as rookie and his final 2 seasons - has 20.9 PER and .161 and the majority of his win shares came on the defensive end where he was over credited for the Piston's elite D and his gambling based D resulting in boxscore stats). Okay part of the above is Isiah is overrated. But there is a point in judging players playoffs by absolute standards not whether they rise or fall. Dirk's do rise (or did until last year hacked away at his career playoff numbers, now they're closer to even which in any case means a real terms improvement given the tougher competition) and there is a gap in playoff production (01-12 PER: 24.7 ; WS/48 .205). But Karl is a better defender which isn't necessarily showing up in these boxscore metrics (though I suppose nor is Dirk's spacing). I'd just suggest that all put together with the substantial longevity edge (not that Nowitzki is any kind of a slacker in this regard, Malone just has 12000 regular season minutes on Dirk (plus about 2500) playoff minutes) and I don't see why people wouldn't think this was close.

I get that your championship chances were somewhat limited with Malone in the role he took - in terms of a limited offensive upside if his shooting was only average which typically it was (though as noted before '98 Finals, G6 a couple of dubious shot clock calls being reversed would have had G7 in Utah with Utah now having the momentum, and MJ facing his first 7 game finals, not that I don't think Jordan could take it, just it changes the complexion of things) and we don't have proof as to whether he could have traded a bit of volume for efficiency (either with a more conventional 25+ usage second scoring option or just non near replacement level guys (or worse) at SF and C). I just think it's entirely pluasible, reasonable to have Malone here and I think it would be easy to put the point the other way round (e.g. "Unless you really value a lot the small sample size, luck affected playoffs, I don't see how you can put Nowitzki over a better defender, a guy with better per minute metrics AND substantially better longevity. He's better in the boxscore and the non-boxscore and does so for more minutes. And the gulf in accolades only confirms this.").

I think there's a lot of viable candidates here Mikan is the most dominant guy available (and combined with team success); David Robinson gives an epic peak and incredible defense later; Karl Malone offers huge longevity; Jerry West was a superb all-round two-way player with excellent WOWY and playoff numbers; Bob Pettit was a two time MVP (good candidate from '56 to '61). Then theres Nowitzki, Erving, Barkley, Moses, Stockton etc.

I just don't get why anyone would think it's cut and dried easy to pick a guy here.

My inclination is to vote Robinson again, I'm not convinced he dropped off on D in the playoffs (though this is probably something we should revisit); his offense was still pretty good in absolute terms (and he was the sole focus of defenses); his D went on past his prime; his first two seasons with Duncan are IMO underrated and he was a monster at his peak (boxscore, WOWY or even rookie impact). That said I think I could be persuaded for West, K Malone, Nowitzki and maybe Mikan, maybe Erving (I'm just not certain about his D, particularly non-ABA and those first three NBA years, rationalised though they may be by fit and nagging injuries, take away a lot of productivity from what should be his prime/peak; and he doesn't have any exceptional NBA playoffs, so quite a bit hinges on weighing up the ABA where obviously he has a couple of huge playoffs).

DQuinn1575 wrote:
Baller2014 wrote:The teams who made the finals prior to 1997 were better than the teams he played for. I don't think that's entirely on Karl Malone, or rather it's no more on Karl Malone than it is on West for some of the years the Lakers got eliminated early (or arguably with a better team). West generally had better team mates, and so his team generally had better chances to make the finals.


Malone played alongside Stockton, who was ranked #31 last time - let's call him top 40.

Can you break down the teams he lost to, other than the Lakers, to show why the team lost and why none of this should be on Karl?

If all those teams up to 1996 were better than Malone's teams, which included another top 40 player, then some of that is on Karl -

The only teams I would consider giving a pass to are the teams that won, which I think is one Laker team, and two Hakeem teams.

Not to enter the "who it is more "on" conversation but ...

Yes Malone was fortunate enough to play with Stockton, but you still need three other players on the court. People get caught up in players above a certain threshold (often all-star; as though Marcus Camby, Rod Strickland, Andre Miller, Jason Terry, Lamar Odom, Cedric Maxwell et al were indistinct from the worst players in the NBA).

Once Stockton and Malone got going (i.e. not saying Dantley) who were their best teammates? Hornacek (okay genuinely a good player), Jeff Malone (main skill was the long-ish 2, he probably about an average SG, maybe worse for a starter, and then he fell off a bit), Ty Corbin (a really nice role-player, good attitude, hustle and D, shot well enough, solid all-round player but his numbers fell off a cliff in '94), Eaton (awesome defender, awful offensive player, unclear net impact), Thurl Bailey (average-ish starter for a couple of years, then fell off).

And that's not all at any one time. The point is, evaluate the team not the second best individual.


Not that I'm sure blame for a loss is helpful way of looking at things (how does it work, are you to blame if you're worse than your RS self even if that's still very good? If you look to assign blame on defeats does that mean how you play in victory doesn't matter: were '58, '72 and '83 the best (NBA) playoffs of Pettit, West and Erving). I mean I get if people want to say "that wasn't elite performance (in real terms) which you might expect of players in this tier". But a often it's looking too closely at a tiny sample or looking at the names of players (say for instance Shaq's teammates in the late 90s or even versus Houston, and saying "He lost with the better team." As though it doesn't matter that that "better team" on paper didn't perform like that in the series or that his outstanding RS play was the reason that the team was considered better). This isn't at anyone, just the notion of blame was used this thread of the discussion and I'm not sure it's a productive way of looking at things, for me at least.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#239 » by ardee » Mon Aug 4, 2014 8:14 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
ardee wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:
4) How can we put Dirk this high when he only has 4 seasons where he was a Top 5 player?



Let's just look at Dirk's prime from 2001-2014 and where he ranked:

2001: Maybe a bottom end top 10 player. Top 15 at the very worst.
2002: Top 6-8 range. Only Shaq, Duncan, Kobe, Mac, and KG were definitely better.
2003: 6th. Behind those same five. But he's definitely sixth IMO.
2004: He has an argument for 5th behind KG, Duncan, Shaq and Kobe. I have him 5th, I don't see anyone else with a really strong challenge. Top 6-8 at the worst.
2005: I think he was 2nd behind Nash. Taking that mediocre roster to 58 wins was a miracle. Let's call it top 5.
2006: 2nd behind Kobe. Let's say top 5 again, but honestly it's really top 3 at the worst.
2007: I have him 4th behind Kobe, Duncan and Nash. Let's say top 5 again.
2008: I have him 5th behind Kobe, Paul, LeBron and KG. Let's say top 6-8.
2009: Top 6-8, only five guys definitely above him: LeBron, Kobe, Wade, Paul and Dwight.
2010: Top 6-8 again, in the range with Durant, Nash and Dwight behind LeBron, Kobe, Wade.
2011: I think he's consensus no. 1, let's say top 3 at worst.
2012: Top 6-8 again, only LBJ, Durant and Paul definitely ahead of him. Same range as KG, Kobe and Westbrook.
2013: Bad year, probably fringe top 20.
2014: Back in the top 10 I think.

So over 14 years (from the most conservative standpoint), he has two top 3 years, two top 5 years, seven top 6-8 years, two top 10ish years, and one more or less irrelevant year.

That's amazing longevity at a high level. I don't think you should reward him for being 5th and punish him for being 6th or 7th, that's kinda arbitary.

Anyway, that was really conservative. I think you can argue him to be top 5 every year from 2002-2011 without really stretching the bonds of reality. I wouldn't, but I really wouldn't object if someone thought he was top 5 in a year like 2003 or 2009.

Even being sixth in years like that is a hell of an achievement. Those are two of the most loaded seasons in NBA history.

It's a great career arc, no doubt. The problem is that when you compare West, Dr. J, Moses, Pettit, and others, they all have better arcs. His competition is the big issue.


Moses definitely did not have a better career arc. Neither did Pettit.

West I agree is better.

His only real competition here is Doc, and I made a comparison post earlier. Doc played in a split league for half his prime, far inferior competition to prime Duncan, Kobe, KG, LeBron, Wade, Nash, etc. that Dirk has been competing with. The only time Doc faced competition on the same level was the early 80s.

And competition doesn't really matter in this case because I think Dirk was just better. My opinion, and I explained it earlier, you're entitled to your own.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #14 

Post#240 » by 90sAllDecade » Mon Aug 4, 2014 8:15 pm

I have concerns about West's handles as well.

My concern with Dirk and why I was initially high on him then changed was that he's an average defensive player at the PF position, which can be very impactul defensively.

Other posters like Chuck Texas noted that Dirk was often asked to guard the least offensive threat, he was often hidden on defense. Karl Malone has shown he would step up and guard some of the toughest defensive assignments, and was just a better all around passer and defensive player imo.

Dirk got better in the playoffs and Malone got worse (offensively), but Nowitzki also needed to be surrounded by defensive talent to succeed. On the other hand Malone had better team support but if not for Jordan I wonder if he'd have two titles over Dirk?

(Hypothetically it would have potentially been a back 2 back championship run if they beat Reggie's Pacers and the Riley/Hardaway/Mourning Miami Heat, but both were very good teams though and I don't know how they matched up that year)

Dirk's ring with lesser help is a big accomplishment imo, especially over LeBron's Heat. But Jordan is tougher competition imo. My opinion isn't set in stone about either, but right now I lean towards Karl.
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