RealGM Top 100 List #16

[Texas Chuck]

So Dirk is a rim protector?

Karl Malone is 60th all time? Moses is 23rd.What's your argument? Lol

I'm not making an argument, mate. Im simply pointing out that Dirk had some ability as a rim protector not that he's some elite shot-blocker or defensive anchor because clearly he wasnt. I certainly wasn't suggesting he was a better shot blocker than the Malones. But we can't ignore that Dirk was 7 feet tall, played a lot of center prior to Carlisle taking over the team, and provided some supplementary rim protection.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

So Dirk is a rim protector? So Dirk couldn't be taken out by double-teams or good defense? So we're going to nitpick a player just to justify an argument. Not everyone can score and defend like Duncan, Hakeem, Garnett or even Robinson, and that's what puts those guys in another class. Drop off in efficiency? Sometimes age plays a role in drop off production or role change, that can't be helped. I'll say this, Dirk is a more skilled player than Karl, but statistically Karl has the edge.

1) Dirk rim protector? Of course not (even if he has an higher block% than Karl) but neither was Malone. My point, I hope not too difficult di decifrate, was that Malone was not a dominant defender, so his case for being #15 is not coming from his defense
2) Dirk could be taken out double teaming him? Sure, do it and there will be open shots all over place. The problem is not prevent the the player from shooting, any guy can be stopped if that's what you want, but not allowing him to generate offence for his team. What we saw during Malone career, and it has been brought out multiple times in this thread, is that an important part of his scoring was made of easy basket, either in transition or finishing off a cut. This kind of opportunities come way more often in the regular season, when often teams do not play much defence before the fourth quarter and when they do not have the time to prepare for a specific opponent.
3) and here comes Malone's ts% drop, that is substantial, even looking at his prime only. He's one of the worst ever among the top players, but unlike David Robinson (back to the first point, even if the Admiral's efficiency didn't drop as much) he does not have another strong leg to justify his ranking, a really all time great defense.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

I'm not making an argument, mate. Im simply pointing out that Dirk had some ability as a rim protector not that he's some elite shot-blocker or defensive anchor because clearly he wasnt. I certainly wasn't suggesting he was a better shot blocker than the Malones. But we can't ignore that Dirk was 7 feet tall, played a lot of center prior to Carlisle taking over the team, and provided some supplementary rim protection.

Actully, numbers suggest he was a better shotblocker than Karl (but not Moses, obviously).

[DQuinn1575]

I think some are obsessed about drop off of efficiency in karl malone case. With drop off included he was a 26.3 ppg 11 rpg in po in around 46fg. And that its better than a lot of guys did. Dirk included.

I've been backing Moses but it looks like the tie breaker is between Karl and dirk.

Question for Karl backers - my concern is the drop off in post season play as indicated by win shares /48.
If both Karl and dirk have reg season career of .205 and. .208 then I lean to Karl as he 1) has a couple of extra older age seasons which bring that down and 2) win shares underrates individual defense which hurts Karl

Now win shares is not perfect, but it is directional.

Karl's win shares/48 drop a lot in the playoffs. Dirk's do not. So why should I vote for Karl over dirk?


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Since Moses is out of the run-off (realistically)

Due to much better playoff performance:

I vote for dirk over Karl malone.



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[FJS]

TS is one of advance stats who i'm not sold. Karl Malone is slighty better in ppg as franchise player in utah jazz and in fg%. So basically scored more shooting less (as i said slim margin) but dirk have a better ts. I can undertand that a guy who shot 9 for 20 for 3 its as valuable that the one who score 10 for 20 for 2 and 5 of 5 from ft. The 1st guy produced more points than the second.
The problem is kal malone shot better from the floor and scored more. He did not scored from 3 and he wasn't a 90 ft shooter... but at the end of day he put more points not shooting more.

That's not true, because FTs are also shots! Look, TS% is just different way of saying "points per shot". And if you really don't like TS% because of some strange reasons, then we could look at points per shot (PPS):

Code: Select all

regular season
   PPG   PPS
KM   25,0   1,15
DN   22,5   1,16
      
playoffs
   PPG   PPS
KM   24,7   1,05
DN   25,6   1,16

So in regular season Malone was in fact shooting more, but also produced significantly more points.
However story is completely different in playoffs - not only Dirk has slightly advantage in volume, but also in efficiency. And that advantage is REALLY BIG in this case. And it basically shows what many people already said: that Malone's scoring abilities were pretty limited and exposed quite often in playoffs, while Dirk's more unique skillset allows him to maintain very high level of scoring production. Nowitzki is also better passer and overall defensively, so my vote goes to him.

I watch you're counting Lakers days... Of course it's part of Malone carreer, but since he was not the franchise player, I'm gonna use same seasons:

Karl Malone after 16 seasons (85-86 to 00-01)

RS 1237 Games, 52.3% FG 10.7 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.41 SPG, 26.6 PPG
PO 163 Games, 46.6% FG, 11.1 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.35 SPG, 26.6 PPG

Dirk Nowitzki 16 Seasons (98-99 to 13-14)
RS 1188 Games, 47.6% FG, 8.1 RPG, 2.6 APG, 0.9 SPG, 22.5 PPG
PO 135 Games, 46.1% FG, 10.1 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.1 SPG, 25.6 PPG


So basically, Malone played a lot more (Altough Dirk had 2 lockout seasons and Malone only one) in RS and in PO.
Malone never missed PO, Dirk did it 4 times.
Dirk raise his numbers from RS to PO, but still, those aren't better than Malone.
Dirk was better only in FT and in 3PT. Altough he did not scored more than Malone.
For example, in those 16 seasons in PO Dirk went 1159 times to the FT, making 1032 = 90%. This is 7.6 FTM in 8.6 FTA.
Malone got the line more times than him, 1583 and made 1173 (74%). 7.1 FTM in 9.7 FTA.
Of course, Dirk Was more efficient, but Malone got only 0.5 points less from the FT but put in foul trouble more than Dirk did.
Again, Dirk has some advantadge in 3 PT, but Malone put 4341 points in those games (163) and Dirk 3455 in 135.
So Malone scored 886 points more in 28 more games.

So, Malone scored one point per game more than Dirk in PO, with better FG%. Dirk scored more from FT marginally, and the 3pt% advantage it's not shown in points per game.

[lorak]

Spoiler:

TS is one of advance stats who i'm not sold. Karl Malone is slighty better in ppg as franchise player in utah jazz and in fg%. So basically scored more shooting less (as i said slim margin) but dirk have a better ts. I can undertand that a guy who shot 9 for 20 for 3 its as valuable that the one who score 10 for 20 for 2 and 5 of 5 from ft. The 1st guy produced more points than the second.
The problem is kal malone shot better from the floor and scored more. He did not scored from 3 and he wasn't a 90 ft shooter... but at the end of day he put more points not shooting more.

That's not true, because FTs are also shots! Look, TS% is just different way of saying "points per shot". And if you really don't like TS% because of some strange reasons, then we could look at points per shot (PPS):

Code: Select all

regular season
   PPG   PPS
KM   25,0   1,15
DN   22,5   1,16
      
playoffs
   PPG   PPS
KM   24,7   1,05
DN   25,6   1,16

So in regular season Malone was in fact shooting more, but also produced significantly more points.
However story is completely different in playoffs - not only Dirk has slightly advantage in volume, but also in efficiency. And that advantage is REALLY BIG in this case. And it basically shows what many people already said: that Malone's scoring abilities were pretty limited and exposed quite often in playoffs, while Dirk's more unique skillset allows him to maintain very high level of scoring production. Nowitzki is also better passer and overall defensively, so my vote goes to him.

I watch you're counting Lakers days... Of course it's part of Malone carreer, but since he was not the franchise player, I'm gonna use same seasons:

Karl Malone after 16 seasons (85-86 to 00-01)

RS 1237 Games, 52.3% FG 10.7 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.41 SPG, 26.6 PPG
PO 163 Games, 46.6% FG, 11.1 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.35 SPG, 26.6 PPG

Dirk Nowitzki 16 Seasons (98-99 to 13-14)
RS 1188 Games, 47.6% FG, 8.1 RPG, 2.6 APG, 0.9 SPG, 22.5 PPG
PO 135 Games, 46.1% FG, 10.1 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.1 SPG, 25.6 PPG

We are talking about TS% or PPS and that it's not true what you've said earlier ("Malone scored more on less shots"), so if you want to narrow comparison to seasons listed above, then numbers are:

Code: Select all

regular season
player   PPG   PPS
KM   25,9   1,16
DN   22,5   1,16
      
playoffs      
player   PPG   PPS
KM   26,6   1,06
DN   25,6   1,16

So basically the same story: Malone has advantage in regular season as volume scorer, but he definitely didn't "shot more on less shots" and in playoffs their volume is almost the same, but Dirk is MUCH MORE efficient scorer. It's almost like comparing Iverson (Malone) to Jordan (Dirk). And that doesn't even include eras differences - if we would do such adjustment, then Nowitzki would look even better.

[Texas Chuck]

FJS,

The other thing Dirk guys like me will point to is how much additional offense Dirk's unique skill-set at his size was creating for his teammates. Like you yourself mentioned earlier that Horny and Stock were better than JET and Marion but that they were able to produce more. Well Dirk is a huge part of that--especially in regards to JET whose numbers while on the court with Dirk are far superior to his numbers when Dirk is resting.

But you are right if we are just talking about raw accumulation, Malone wins that. The question for each of us is how to weight everything else each guy brings. But if we are looking primarily at raw numbers Karl Malone should be ranked in the top 10 imo. His numbers are that staggering.

I hated Malone the player(I think most fans of Western teams probably did) because he was really good, a little dirty(and I mean this as a complement), and was always there--John too. I went to a lot of Mavs-Jazz games in the 90s and Malone was just destroying whomever we tried to put on him. So I'm not a fan, but my level of respect for him has really grown throughout this project. I appreciate you coming in and advocating for a guy with very few advocates on this board.

[drza]

Interestingly, I'm not much of a Dirk fan. I don't actively dislike him, but he's never been someone that I've pulled for.

I was looking for something, and saw this. It's funny, because I'm neutral about Dirk, but since Duncan is my favorite active player, I naturally then had a rooting interest against Dirk winning whenever the Mavericks matched up against the Spurs in the playoffs which also included this recently ended season.

I didn't mind him winning in 2011, as the Spurs were eliminated in the first round, and as Jason Kidd—who was my favorite point guard in the league before he retired—was on Dallas, I was glad to see Kidd win one before he retired.

Similar situation, just substituting KG in for Duncan as my favorite player. I also pulled for the Mavs in 2011, and have at other various times through his career. Similar to other superstars that I don't have an active like or dislike for (including Duncan, Shaq, LeBron and Durant).

[FJS]

FJS,

The other thing Dirk guys like me will point to is how much additional offense Dirk's unique skill-set at his size was creating for his teammates. Like you yourself mentioned earlier that Horny and Stock were better than JET and Marion but that they were able to produce more. Well Dirk is a huge part of that--especially in regards to JET whose numbers while on the court with Dirk are far superior to his numbers when Dirk is resting.

But you are right if we are just talking about raw accumulation, Malone wins that. The question for each of us is how to weight everything else each guy brings. But if we are looking primarily at raw numbers Karl Malone should be ranked in the top 10 imo. His numbers are that staggering.

I hated Malone the player(I think most fans of Western teams probably did) because he was really good, a little dirty(and I mean this as a complement), and was always there--John too. I went to a lot of Mavs-Jazz games in the 90s and Malone was just destroying whomever we tried to put on him. So I'm not a fan, but my level of respect for him has really grown throughout this project. I appreciate you coming in and advocating for a guy with very few advocates on this board.

The sad thing is, if Karl'd won a ring in 98 vs Jordan, for example, he would be ranked in top 10, for sure.

As i said, Dirk Missed 3 times PO,6 times eliminated in first round, 4 times in semis, 3 times to WCF played went two times to finals, won one.

Malone, in his first 16 years, never missed PO, 7 times in first round, 4 times in semis, 5 times in WCF and 2 times in finals.

Ok, Dirk scored 0.1 ppg per shot more than Malone in those 16 seasons.
Malone scored 1 point more per game, and gave Jazz 28 games more competing for a ring.

Frankly, if you show me their career resume, and say me, choose player A (Malone) or B (Dirk) to your franchise, knowing all except if they are going to bring you a ring or not, I would choose A.
2 MVP, 11 1st all NBA teams, 2nd scorer in NBA, no missing any games in 18 years, 3 all defensive 1st team,...
vs
1 MVP, 4 1st all nba team, vs 12th scorer in NBA, pretty durable altough missing more games than A...

T

[john248]

As you watch, Dirk had a plenty of horrible nights shooting in PO (his better weapon) His TS is nice, because he is a great 3pt Shooter and a 90% FT shooter, but it's not like he is unguardable.
He did not shoot better than Malone in PO, he did not scored more. He did not played better than Malone in Finals (utah Jazz finals)

97 Finals Malone > 2006 Finals Dirk
98 Finals Malone > 2011 Finals Dirk

The main difference? Dirk won one ring, when Lebron did not show and he get some help (some unexpected help from the one like Terry with 18 ppg or Marion with 13 ppg)

Jordan did show, as the rest of the Bulls, and Karl had a better teammates around (stockton and Hornacek) but they did not help in scoring, being Hornacek the secong one with 10 ppg and stockton the 3rd with 9 ppg

TBH, I think all this did for me was show that Karl had 1 or 2 good shooting games in a series while Dirk only had 1 or 2 poor shooting games in a series and doesn't really change the fact that Dirk comes out ahead on the entire playoff sample size between the 2.

Dirk 06 Finals: 53 TS%, 24.6 DREB%, 14.1 TRB%, 10.9 AST%, 9.1 TOV% 109 ORTG, 23/11/2.5 at 44 min
Dirk 11 Finals: 53.7 TS%, 28.4 DREB%, 15 TREB%, 10.6 AST%, 10.5 TOV%, 105 ORTG, 26/10/2 at 40 min

Malone 97 Finals: 49 TS%, 20.7 DREB%, 15.2 TRB%, 20.2 AST%, 8.7% TOV%, 102 ORTG, 24/10/3.5 at 41 min ... 61% FT
Malone 98 Finals: 55.3 TS%, 21.5 DREB%, 17.3 TRB%, 23.9 AST%, 14.5 TOV$, 106 ORTG, 25/10.5/4 at 41min



Dirk Nowitzki Elimination Game Averages:
28.4 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.2 BPG, 1.8 TPG, 48.4 FG%, 41.9 3PT%, 90.7 FT%

Spoiler:

Dirk in Elimination Games
01’ G5 vs. UTA – 18 PTS, 4 RBS, 1 AST, 1 STL, 0 BLK, 1 TOV, 3/11 FG, 2/4 3P, 10/10 FT W
01 G4 vs SAS- 30 PTS, 9 RBS, 1 AST, 1 STL, 0 BLK, 1 TOV, 11/18 FG, 0/1 3P, 8/8 FT W
01 G5 vs SAS- 42 PTS, 18 RBS, 2 AST, 6 STL, 1 BLK, 3 TOV, 14/24 FG, 0/1 3P, 14/18 FT L
02 G5 vs SAC- 32 PTS, 12 RBS, 3 AST, 1 STL, 1 BLK, 1 TOV, 13/25 FG, 3/5 3P, ¾ FT L
03’ G7 vs. POR – 31 PTS, 11 RBS, 1 AST, 2 STL, 3 BLK, 1 TOV, 12/21 FG, 1/4 3P, 6/6 FT W
03’ G7 vs. SAC – 30 PTS, 19 RBS, 2 AST, 1 STL, 1 BLK, 0 TOV, 12/20 FG, 3/4 3P, 2/3 FT W
04 G5 vs SAC – 31 PTS, 14 RBS, 0 AST, 1 STL, 4 BLK, 3 TOV, 11/23 FG, 2/2 3P, 7/7 FT L
05’ G7 vs. HOU – 14 PTS, 14 RBS, 2 AST, 1 STL, 3 BLK, 2 TOV, 5/14 FG, 0/1 3P, 4/6 FT W
05 G6 vs PHO- 28 PTS, 13 RBS, 6 AST, 0 STL, 0 BLK, 2 TOV, 9/25 FG, 2/5 3P, 8/10 FT L
06’ G7 vs. SAS – 37 PTS, 15 RBS, 3 AST, 1 STL, 1 BLK, 0 TOV, 11/20 FG, 0/1 3P, 15/16 FT W
06’ G6 vs MIA- 29 PTS, 15 RBS, 2 AST, 0 STL, 2 BLK, 1 TOV, 10/22 FG, ½ 3P, 8/8 FT L
07 G5 vs GS- 30 PTS, 12 RBS, 3 AST, 0 STL, 1 BLK, 2 TOV, 7/15 FG, 2/3 3, 14/15 FT W
07 G6 vs GS- 8 PTS, 10 RBS, 2 AST, 1 STL, 0 BLK, 3 TOV, 2/13 FG, 0/6 3PT, 4/4 FT L
08 G5 vs NOH- 22 PTS, 13 RBS, 6 AST, 0 STL, 2 BLK, 1 TOV, 8/21 FG, 1/5 3P, 5/7 FT L
09 G4 vs DEN- 44 PTS, 13 RBS, 3 AST, 2 STL, 1 BLK, 4 TOV, 14/25 FG, 0/0 3 P, 16/17 FT W
09 G5 vs DEN- 32 PTS, 10 RBS, 7 ASET, 0 STL, 1 BLK, 5 TOV, 9/17 FG, 2-5 3P, 12-12 FT L
10 G5 vs SAS- 15 PTS, 9 RBS, 2 AST, 2 STL, 2 BLK, 3 TOV, 7/14 FG, 0/0 3P, 1/1 FT W
10 G6 vs SAS- 33 PTS, 5 RBS, 4 AST, 0 STL, 0 BLK, 1 TOV, 13/21 FG, 2/4 3P, 5/6 FT L
12 G4 vs OKC- 34 PTS, 5 RBS, 4 AST, 1 STL, 0 BLK, 1 TOV, 10/25 FG, 1/1 3P, 13/13 FT L

Total Games: 19
Averages: 28.4 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.2 BPG, 1.8 TPG, 48.4 FG%, 41.9 3PT%, 90.7 FT%
181/374 FG, 23/55 threes, 155/171 FT

Karl Malone Elimination Game Averages:
25.3 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.3 SPG, .8 BPG, 2.7 TOPG, 47.3 FG%, 20.0 3P%, 65.1FT%

Spoiler:

Karl Malone Elimination Games: 17 Wins, 16 Losses
86’ G3 vs. DAL – 16 PTS, 8 RBS, 1 AST, 4 STL, 0 BLK, 2 TOV, 8/14 FG, 0/0 3P, 0/4 FT W
86’ G4 vs. DAL – 17 PTS, 1 RBS, 0 AST, 1 STL, 0 BLK, 0 TOV, 6/17 FG, 0/0 3P, 5/11 FT L
87’ G5 vs. GSW – 23 PTS, 9 RBS, 2 AST, 1 STL, 1 BLK, 3 TOV, 8/15 FG, 0/0 3P, 7/11 FT L
88’ G6 vs. LAL – 27 PTS, 11 RBS, 2 AST, 0 STL, 0 BLK, 1 TOV, 10/20 FG, 0/0 3P, 7/7 FT W
88’ G7 vs. LAL – 31 PTS, 15 RBS, 4 AST, 2 STL, 0 BLK, 5 TOV, 14/21 FG, 0/0 3P, 3/9 FT L
89’ G3 vs. GSW – 33 PTS, 14 RBS, 2 AST, 1 STL, 0 BLK, 2 TOV, 13/26 FG, 0/0 3P, 7/10 FT L
90’ G4 vs. PHX – 33 PTS, 11 RBS, 2 AST, 5 STL, 1 BLK, 2 TOV, 13/24 FG, 0/0 3P, 7/9 FT W
90’ G5 vs. PHX – 26 PTS, 8 RBS, 2 AST, 3 STL, 0 BLK, 3 TOV, 10/19 FG, 0/0 3P, 6/12 FT L
91’ G5 vs. POR – 26 PTS, 8 RBS, 3 AST, 1 STL, 1 BLK, 1 TOV, 9/23 FG, 0/1 3P, 8/8 FT L
92’ G5 vs. LAC – 19 PTS, 16 RBS, 3 AST, 1 STL, 5 BLK, 2 TOV, 5/17 FG, 0/0 3P, 9/14 FT W
92’ G6 vs. POR – 23 PTS, 19 RBS, 1 AST, 0 STL, 1 BLK, 4 TOV, 7/14 FG, 0/0 3P, 9/10 FT W
93’ G5 vs. SEA – 26 PTS, 12 RBS, 2 AST, 0 STL, 1 BLK, 3 TOV, 10/19 FG, 0/0 3P, 6/6 FT L
94’ G7 vs. DEN – 31 PTS, 14 RBS, 6 AST, 2 STL, 1 BLK, 2 TOV, 12/23 FG, 0/0 3P, 7/9 FT W
94’ G5 vs. HOU – 31 PTS, 10 RBS, 7 AST, 0 STL, 0 BLK, 3 TOV, 9/21 FG, 0/1 3P, 13/15 FT L
95’ G5 vs. HOU – 35 PTS, 10 RBS, 3 AST, 2 STL, 0 BLK, 3 TOV, 10/21 FG, 1/2 3P, 14/20 FT L
96’ G5 vs. POR – 25 PTS, 10 RBS, 1 AST, 1 STL, 1 BLK, 2 TOV, 11/21 FG, 0/0 3P, 3/10 FT W
96’ G6 vs. SEA – 32 PTS, 10 RBS, 7 AST, 4 STL, 0 BLK, 1 TOV, 13/22 FG, 0/0 3P, 6/9 FT W
96’ G7 vs. SEA – 22 PTS, 5 RBS, 7 AST, 1 STL, 0 BLK, 4 TOV, 8/22 FG, 0/0 3P, 6/12 FT L
97’ G6 vs. CHI – 21 PTS, 7 RBS, 2 AST, 4 STL, 0 BLK, 2 TOV, 7/15 FG, 0/0 3P, 7/15 FT L
98’ G4 vs. HOU – 29 PTS, 13 RBS, 0 AST, 1 STL, 2 BLK, 3 TOV, 11/22 FG, 0/0 3P, 7/8 FT W
98’ G5 vs. HOU – 31 PTS, 15 RBS, 5 AST, 1 STL, 2 BLK, 2 TOV, 12/22 FG, 0/0 3P, 7/9 FT W
98’ G5 vs. CHI – 39 PTS, 9 RBS, 5 AST, 1 STL, 1 BLK, 1 TOV, 17/27 FG, 0/1 3P, 5/6 FT W
98’ G6 vs. CHI – 31 PTS, 11 RBS, 7 AST, 1 STL, 0 BLK, 5 TOV, 11/19 FG, 0/0 3P, 9/11 FT L
99’ G4 vs. SAC – 23 PTS, 16 RBS, 4 AST, 0 STL, 1 BLK, 4 TOV, 9/21 FG, 0/0 3P, 5/5 FT W
99’ G5 vs. SAC – 20 PTS, 12 RBS, 2 AST, 2 STL, 0 BLK, 5 TOV, 6/19 FG, 0/0 3P, 8/9 FT W
99’ G5 vs. POR – 23 PTS, 8 RBS, 3 AST, 1 STL, 2 BLK, 4 TOV, 11/21 FG, 0/0 FG, 1/2 FT W
99’ G6 vs. POR – 8 PTS, 7 RBS, 6 AST, 0 STL, 2 BLK, 3 TOV, 3/16 FG, 0/0 3P, 2/3 FT L
00’ G5 vs. SEA – 27 PTS, 8 RBS, 3 AST, 0 STL, 1 BLK, 3 TOV, 13/24 FG, 0/0, 1/3 FT W
00’ G4 vs. POR – 27 PTS, 8 RBS, 7 AST, 0 STL, 2 BLK, 1 TOV, 9/20 FG, 0/0 3P, 9/11 FT W
00’ G5 vs. POR – 27 PTS, 11 RBS, 6 AST, 3 STL, 0 BLK, 2 TOV, 11/25 FG, 0/0 3P, 5/7 FT L
01’ G5 vs. DAL – 24 PTS, 10 RBS, 2 AST, 0 STL, 1 BLK, 2 TOV, 9/28 FG, 0/0 3P, 6/8 FT L
02’ G4 vs. SAC – 14 PTS, 3 RBS, 3 AST, 1 STL, 0 BLK, 5 TOV, 7/20 FG, 0/0 3P, 0/2 FT L
03’ G5 vs. SAC – 14 PTS, 4 RBS, 2 AST, 0 STL, 0 BLK, 2 TOV, 5/17 FG, 0/0 3P, 4/4 FT L

viewtopic.php?t=1268621

[drza]

Spoiler:

That's why the "niggling detail" of Dirk's postseason +/- scores are potentially problematic for me, as I detailed (to an extreme degree) earlier in the thread. So much of Dirk's value in this level of company (for me) is tied to the dual-threat of his non-boxscore offensive impact and his consistent high efficiency/high volume scoring even into the postseason. Together, these two could convince me that he was a demonstrably more valuable playoff performer than Karl Malone, who was also made most of his impact on offense but saw his scoring efficiency drop precipitously in the postseason.

However, if (as I detailed in that post) Dirk was not having the same non-boxscore impact for much of his playoff career...if his scoring style wasn't leading to so much spacing/defensive warpage in the postseason (with different defensive approaches and intensity) before he developed the killer post game around 2008...then that opens the door for the Mailman. It opens the door two ways...indirectly it suggests (yet again) that scoring efficiency is a really poor way to estimate a player's postseason impact, and then it directly suggests that if DIrk may not have been having Dirk-level impact in the postseason then perhaps the Mailman's postseason value ISN'T much worse than Dirk's.

Even without some advanced stats, Dirk is still a standout. From 02 on, he's been a great offensive player and even better after 08 as you mentioned. It resonates with me that a team can be built around him to win during his career which included a few coaching changes and a few roster overhauls where he was the lead guy and led his team to the 06 Finals coming out of the WC. That 06 squad, at least on paper, really didn't have another teammate who was an all-NBA level player or even an all-star really. Then Dallas makes another trip to the Finals in 11 with Terry as the only hold over. So the counter to this can be that during the Cuban era, Dallas has had deep teams with mediocre to good fit while still being a 50 win team in 11 years without lottery picks. They've also made good moves to rebuild on the fly to reach the Finals again in a 5 year span. Having a player like Dirk to build around in this sense pretty much screams franchise player to me even without advanced stats. Then we've seen shooting percentages of his teammates when he's not on the floor dip, which can be putting it nicely (I know I've seen Terry and Barea in many Dirk threads used in this regard).

In Dirk's (or anyone) case, it only "indirectly suggests that scoring efficiency is a poor way to estimate a player's postseason impact" if you really feel that there was some type of trend in regards to the Mavs losing to worse teams (03 though Dirk is injured in game 3, 06, 07). Now, if you feel the Mavs lost series to better teams, then I don't see a problem here if we're operating under the premise that this is a team game.

To me it just comes down to how much of a gap you feel there is on defense and the extra years of longevity in Karl's favor.

Very little time, so I'm going to try to hit this quick (and not to the level I'd like to). First, on/off +/- is not really an advanced stat. Much like points or rebounds, you could keep track of someone's on/off +/- in your head while watching a given game. That's actually one of the knocks against using it here...it may be so simple that it doesn't convey good individual impact quantification. That said, as I've alluded to before, I think it is worth something. I'd love to go through and explore year-by-year on/off +/- values for teams that make at least the conference finals, but I don't have time now (maybe I'll do it next thread, if it's still relevant).

But anyway, on point, I was never saying that Dirk having lower than expected on/off +/- was a knock against him being great. What I was saying is that the pro-Dirk argument (against players the caliber of Karl Malone) requires that he be significantly more effective than Karl in the postseason. If he's not, then Karl has other advantages in the comp that could swing it his way. Dirk's "better in the postseason" relies upon his scoring efficiency and volume. BUT, if his +/- scores convinced me that his scoring efficiency/volume wasnt an indication that he was having the kind of transcendant offensive impact that we'd have expected, then that calls into question whether Dirk (even with the great scoring) was really enough better than Karl to make the diference.

But anyway, I was raising the point for discussion, but as yet I haven't convinced myself enough to move Karl over Dirk. I may have talked myself into Robinson over Dirk, but he isn't in this run-off. So:

Vote: Dirk Nowitzki

[Ryoga Hibiki]

Question: how much are all +/- related stats significant in the playoffs, when we have a very small sample size, rotations tighten and top players increase greatly their mpg?

[john248]

You know, I really enjoy these threads, because you get to debate other minds. Still, sometimes I'm baffled by the arguments of some. You can gather all the stats and info u want, but to suggest that Dirk is a vastly superior offensive player than Malone or Garnett is flawed and dismissive. How long have u been watching basketball? Karl Malone is one the greatest players, but scorers in NBA history. Malone's post season is just as good as Dirk if not better. You can't fault Malone for having to face Jordan/Pippen Bulls twice.

And u speak as if Garnett's a slouch on offense. KG's offensive game has always been underrated, but people tend to forget he was BEAST in his prime. Look, I love Dirk, he think he's a top 25 player of all time, but there's more to being great than just scoring the ball.

the "vastly superior scorer and offensive player" is related to post season only, anyway.
As many others pointed out, Malone's strengths were relatively easily to be taken out by a good defense that had the luxury to prepare the game and make adjustment. That's why for me Malone was the PF version of David Robinson, but unlike DR he was not an all time great rim protector and his case is made by his offense And numbers suggest exactly that, given the dreadful dropoff in efficiency he had in the PO unlike Dirk.

Not that it matters, but I witnessed like 2/3 of Karl's career.

So Dirk is a rim protector? So Dirk couldn't be taken out by double-teams or good defense? So we're going to nitpick a player just to justify an argument. Not everyone can score and defend like Duncan, Hakeem, Garnett or even Robinson, and that's what puts those guys in another class. Drop off in efficiency? Sometimes age plays a role in drop off production or role change, that can't be helped. I'll say this, Dirk is a more skilled player than Karl, but statistically Karl has the edge.

Odd things being said. You mentioned it's not Malone's fault he faced the Bulls and also referenced Dirk's ring. I don't think I've read anyone use ring count yet in this thread. Malone's offensive playoff drops happened in his prime and against other teams besides the Bulls.

This is really just a discussion, and people will nitpick. Taking a look at the votes, it is 9 to 9 between Dirk/Karl. Some nitpicking might be in order to see the separation between the 2. What needs to be understood is that even if someone is picking apart Dirk or Karl, that person in all likelihood still has a positive view of either player.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Haven't much time to get on lately, but was surprised to see a 3-way runoff.

MVP Shares + Finals MVPs
Mailman - 4.296
Moses - 3.873
Dirk - 2.810

Top 5 MVP seasons
Mailman - 9
Moses - 5
Dirk - 3

Dirk - Big issues with his prime longevity. Yes, he's played many seasons, but he's only been Top 5 in about 4 of them. That's a problem. Offensively, he's a great shooter, who relies on assisted FGs, but isn't a playmaker. Defensively, he became decent after Avery got there, but still not much of note on that end.

Moses vs Mailman - Tremendous rebounder, and had an exceptional peak. Was really close between him and Mailman, but his career defensively will leave him short in this comparison. The Mailman gives me ATG longevity, and though his playoffs hurt him quite a bit in my book, the fact he's down here at #16 reflects that, otherwise he would have had a Top 10 case. If it wasn't for those stacked Bulls teams, he would have at least one ring, if not 2.

VOTE #16: Karl Malone

[Texas Chuck]

Dirk - Big issues with his prime longevity. Yes, he's played many seasons, but he's only been Top 5 in about 4 of them. That's a problem. Offensively, he's a great shooter, who relies on assisted FGs,

Interesting that you cite assisted FG's as a negative for Dirk yet Mailman is assisted on a TON MORE of his and you voted for him.... He's a big. He's going to be assisted on a number of his FGs because he's not the primary ballhandler. He's actually one of the best, if not the very best big of all-time in creating his own shot. I can't believe anyone sees this as a negative for Dirk.

Also I never understand the argument for a player based on how many Top X seasons they have. It's really irrelevant to how good a player they are, how good other players are. Is Dirk a worse player the first half of his career because Shaq and Duncan exist? Of course not. Is he a worse player the 2nd half because Kobe and Lebron exist? Of course not.

[BmanInBigD]

Chuck, you're being way too diplomatic.

His arguments regarding MVP shares and Top 5 MVP seasons are downright asinine. That takes into NO account how many and who the competitors were in the different eras. Plus they're just arbitrary accolades with bias and agenda behind them.

And the assisted field goal argument, jeez, is he serious? One of the best EVER at being able to get the shot he wants, AFTER he already has the ball. I can't believe some of the stuff I read on here. I may just have to ban myself from this idiocy.

[SactoKingsFan]

Peak Estimated Impact

Karl Malone 90-93 EI: 4.9 (6th), 4.2 (12th), 4.6 (6th), 4.9 (5th)
Karl Malone 97-98 EI: 6.7 (1st), 6.2 (1st)

Dirk 06-07 EI: 5.4 (2nd), 5.6 (2nd)

Moses 82-83 EI: 3.1 (7th), 3.9 (3rd)
-----

Win Shares

K. Malone 90-93 (WS, WS/48): 15.9, .245; 15.5, .225; 15.1, .237; 15.4, .238
K. Malone 97-98 (WS, WS/48): 16.7, .268; 16.4, .259
K. Malone 89-03 (WS, WS/48): 211.4, .226

Dirk 06-07 (WS, WS/48): 17.7, .275; 16.3, .278
Dirk 01-14 (WS, WS/48): 175.9, .218

Moses 82-83 (WS, WS/48): 15.4, .218; 15.1, .248
Moses 79-89 (WS, WS/48): 129.8, .192
Moses 78-92 (WS, WS/48): 156.9, .181
-----

Passing

K. Malone Peak (97-98): 22.8 AST%, 6.1 AST Per 100
K. Malone Extended Prime (89-03): 18.8 AST%, 5.2 AST Per 100

Dirk Peak (06-07): 16.2 AST%, 4.5 AST Per 100
Dirk Extended Prime (01-14): 13.4 AST%, 3.9 AST Per 100

Moses Peak (82-83): 6.0 AST%, 1.8 AST Per 100
Moses Prime (79-89): 6.3 AST%, 2.0 AST Per 100

Moses appears to be very limited as a passer.

K. Malone and Dirk both showed significant improvement in their passing, but Malone was clearly the better passer.

K. Malone passing skills video:

Spoiler:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0oKnAsn2oA[/youtube]

-----

Free Throws

K. Malone Peak (97-98): .498 FTr, 13.5 FTA Per 100, .758 FT%
K. Malone Extended Prime (89-03): .517 FTr, 13.0 FTA Per 100, .761 FT%

Dirk Peak (06-07): .396 FTr, 10.5 FTA Per 100, .903 FT%
Dirk Extended Prime (01-14): .378 FTr, 9.4 FTA Per 100, .883 FT%

Moses Peak (82-83): .516 FTr, 12.3 FTA Per 100, .762 FT%
Moses Prime (79-89): .581 FTr, 12.6 FTA Per 100, .772 FT%
-----

Rebounding

K. Malone Peak (97-98): 8.4 ORB%, 24.5 DRB%, 17.0 TRB%; Per 100: 3.4 ORB, 11.2 DRB, 14.6 TRB
K. Malone Extended Prime (89-03): 7.7 ORB%, 23.6 DRB%, 16.0 TRB%; Per 100: 3.2 ORB, 10.7 DRB, 13.9 TRB

Dirk Peak (06-07): 4.9 ORB%, 23.6 DRB%, 14.5 TRB%; Per 100: 2.2 ORB, 10.9 DRB, 13.0 TRB
Dirk Extended Prime (01-14): 3.5 ORB%, 22.4 DRB%, 13.1 TRB%; Per 100: 1.6 ORB, 10.4 DRB, 12.0 TRB

Moses Peak (82-83): 17.2 ORB%, 23.4 DRB%, 20.4 TRB%; Per 100: 7.6 ORB, 10.5 DRB, 18.1 TRB
Moses Prime (79-89): 16.3 ORB%, 23.4 DRB%, 19.9 TRB%; Per 100: 7.1 ORB, 10.2 DRB, 17.3 TRB
-----

DEFENSE/CONCLUSION

Even after improving his help and post defense, Dirk has generally benefited from taking less challenging defensive assignments and having supporting casts with good defenders capable of covering up his primary defensive weakness (lateral quickness). K. Malone, however, had to defend some of the best PF’s of all-time and used his physicality to become a very good post and man defender.

Moses clearly comes out looking less impressive than Karl Malone and Dirk. Moses was obviously very physically imposing and an elite rebounder, however, his skillset is pretty limited (compared to Dirk and K. Malone), was somewhat of a black hole on offense due to lack of passing/playmaking ability, had very limited shooting range and his propensity to crash the offensive glass came at the expense of transition defense.

K. Malone and Dirk look pretty even. Their peak and prime production are pretty comparable. K. Malone and Dirk continued to improve throughout their primes. K. Malone became a better defender and passer during the mid 90s and developed a more consistent post game and mid-range shot. Dirk also improved as a passer and defender, but I’d still give the edge in those categories to the Mailman. Ranking one ahead of the other is completely reasonable depending on how you weigh their strengths and weaknesses.

I’ll give the slight overall edge to the Mailman due to the following reasons:

Dirk has the clear edge as an ISO scorer/offensive anchor and playoff performer.

K. Malone has the clear edge in longevity/durability, defense, rebounding and passing.

Although I’m not changing my vote, I currently have the Mailman and Dirk ranked 16a and 16b.

[ardee]

Dirk - Big issues with his prime longevity. Yes, he's played many seasons, but he's only been Top 5 in about 4 of them. That's a problem. Offensively, he's a great shooter, who relies on assisted FGs,

Interesting that you cite assisted FG's as a negative for Dirk yet Mailman is assisted on a TON MORE of his and you voted for him.... He's a big. He's going to be assisted on a number of his FGs because he's not the primary ballhandler. He's actually one of the best, if not the very best big of all-time in creating his own shot. I can't believe anyone sees this as a negative for Dirk.

Also I never understand the argument for a player based on how many Top X seasons they have. It's really irrelevant to how good a player they are, how good other players are. Is Dirk a worse player the first half of his career because Shaq and Duncan exist? Of course not. Is he a worse player the 2nd half because Kobe and Lebron exist? Of course not.

And fwiw, not that it matters, but Dirk has far more top 5 seasons than just 4.

A reasonable argument can be made he was top 5 every year from 2002 to 2011.

I personally have him top 5 in 2002, 2004-2008, and 2011. That's 7, and I have him sixth in 2003, 2009 and 2012.

That also shows how arbitrary it is to judge someone by top X seasons.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[An Unbiased Fan]

Dirk - Big issues with his prime longevity. Yes, he's played many seasons, but he's only been Top 5 in about 4 of them. That's a problem. Offensively, he's a great shooter, who relies on assisted FGs,

Interesting that you cite assisted FG's as a negative for Dirk yet Mailman is assisted on a TON MORE of his and you voted for him.... He's a big. He's going to be assisted on a number of his FGs because he's not the primary ballhandler. He's actually one of the best, if not the very best big of all-time in creating his own shot. I can't believe anyone sees this as a negative for Dirk.

With Dirk, his whole case is based on scoring, so of course I'm going to point out his ast% FGs. Malone is definitely in the same boat offensively, but a much better 2-way player. The longevity gap is HUGE between the too. We're basically using Dirk from 05-11 in these comparisons, while its 87-01 Malone.

And no, I don't buy that Dirk is "one of the best, if not the very best big of all-time in creating his own shot". There's no evidence of this.

Also I never understand the argument for a player based on how many Top X seasons they have. It's really irrelevant to how good a player they are, how good other players are. Is Dirk a worse player the first half of his career because Shaq and Duncan exist? Of course not. Is he a worse player the 2nd half because Kobe and Lebron exist? Of course not.

If someone isn't a Top 5 players of his era....then I have a big problem putting him at #16. It's not like Malone didn't have MJ & Hakeem around.

The fact Dirk has only been a Top 5 player in 4 seasons should make everyone consider WHY they're voting for him. Is it because you like the guy? Or because he's truly #16? Is Dirk really over Moses or Mailman? i don't see it.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Chuck, you're being way too diplomatic.

His arguments regarding MVP shares and Top 5 MVP seasons are downright asinine. That takes into NO account how many and who the competitors were in the different eras. Plus they're just arbitrary accolades with bias and agenda behind them.

And the assisted field goal argument, jeez, is he serious? One of the best EVER at being able to get the shot he wants, AFTER he already has the ball. I can't believe some of the stuff I read on here. I may just have to ban myself from this idiocy.

FYI, I like Dirk alot, and don't like either of the Malones on a personal level. But it's pointless to have a Top 100 list if we're not considering a player's whole career. Both Karl and Moses were greater, for longer periods. That's why I posted MVP shares.

And the narrative that Dirk is one of the best ever to get a shot he wants, again doesn't fly with me. He's a great shooter no doubt, but people are overselling his talents a bit. Also, where's his playmaking or defense? Sorry, but this is #16 all-time we're talking about.