RealGM Top 100 List #16

[Texas Chuck]

AUF said it mate, not me.

[trex_8063]

FJS,

The other thing Dirk guys like me will point to is how much additional offense Dirk's unique skill-set at his size was creating for his teammates. Like you yourself mentioned earlier that Horny and Stock were better than JET and Marion but that they were able to produce more. Well Dirk is a huge part of that--especially in regards to JET whose numbers while on the court with Dirk are far superior to his numbers when Dirk is resting.

But you are right if we are just talking about raw accumulation, Malone wins that. The question for each of us is how to weight everything else each guy brings.......

I appreciate the respectful credit you've offered to Karl Malone, CT, given I know that Dirk is your guy. And I certainly would not disagree with what you (and others) have said regarding Dirk's mere presence creating opportunities for his teammates.

Clearly opposing defenses in the post-season were keyed in on taking away the types of shots/plays that K.Malone achieved his remarkable volume/efficiency with in the rs, focusing a lot of attention and energy on him. I presume that everyone would agree with this, yes?

Obviously, this is also happening to Dirk. Opposing defenses will be trying their best to neutralize his impact........and to some degree they must have been successful:
Dirk's post-season per 100 numbers, ps vs. rs ('01-'14)---->he's -0.7 pts, -0.6 ast, +0.3 turnovers on -0.6% TS. ORtg drops by 1 pt, too.

It's not huge amounts, but it is uniform/across the board: all offensive metrics get a tiny bit worse, despite Dirk's offensive skill-set. But while they may have been able to neutralize him marginally, as you've noted: his teammates are able to capitalize on the defensive attention he draws. And as you've also noted, it's not that Dirk is always making the play (making the assist out of the double-team or whatever.....it's been noted more than once that K.Malone STILL has the marginally higher offensive volume EVEN IN THE PLAYOFFS); it's Dirk's teammates taking advantage and making the play themselves.

So my question to you and everyone else is who much credit (blame) should be falling on Karl Malone for his team failing to capitalize on the attention Malone is drawing? At present, it seems as though Malone is absorbing ALL of the blame (at least from his critics). But how much should fall on Jerry Sloan? Stockton? Hornacek et al? for the Jazz failure to take proper advantage of the attention Karl Malone draws? Surely it's not fair that all fall on him....

[Owly]

Also I never understand the argument for a player based on how many Top X seasons they have. It's really irrelevant to how good a player they are, how good other players are. Is Dirk a worse player the first half of his career because Shaq and Duncan exist? Of course not. Is he a worse player the 2nd half because Kobe and Lebron exist? Of course not.

If someone isn't a Top 5 players of his era....then I have a big problem putting him at #16. It's not like Malone didn't have MJ & Hakeem around.

The fact Dirk has only been a Top 5 player in 4 seasons should make everyone consider WHY they're voting for him. Is it because you like the guy? Or because he's truly #16? Is Dirk really over Moses or Mailman? i don't see it.

Don't disagree with the bolded. Karl did have MJ and Hakeem around. That makes it hard for him to get to the top 3 (at least through '98, with MJ out of '94 and '95). That's 2 (both in already). Dirk was facing Duncan, Garnett, Bryant, Shaq (early), LeBron (later) all already in (plus Paul, Nash, Howard, a year or two of McGrady and Durant all this group making RealGMs top 33 peaks). That's a more difficult field (from the peaks project but not yet in there's Robinson, Barkley, Ewing and a couple of years of Anfernee Hardaway).

So whilst not being in the top 5 of PotY or MVP votes very often (4 times) might give you a reason to check your support (and look at things like calibre of play) it is hardly a disqualification.

Talking about competition:

Karl Malone played in an era when Jordan, Duncan, Shaq, Magic, Bird, Olajuwon, Garnett and Bryant were in their primes (some entering, some finishing and other lived their whole prime) in his career. All are selected in the top 15.
He played still vs KAJ and Dr J in their finish years, when Jabbar still was winning rings.
Plus he played vs Moses Malone, David Robinson (prime), Charles Barkley (prime), Patrick Ewing (prime) and so many top 30 players.

Dirk has played with Duncan, Shaq, Garnett, Bryant and Lebron for this top 15 in their primes.

Still he managed to be a top 5 in 9 years, being Dirk in 3.
Not to talk about 1st all nba team. 11 the Mailman vs 4th Dirk.

This is laughable. The discussion is about competition for MVP and more broadly the top 5 players and PotY votes. Number of years in which Bird was top 5 in which Malone either was top 5 in PotY or otherwise would have been (0); Bryant (0); Garnett (1; '00); Magic (3; '89, '90, '91); Shaq (5 ; '94, '95, '98, '99, '00) only Olajuwon (5; '89, '93, '94, '95, '97; less than I'd thought) and Jordan (8; '89, '90, '91, '92, '93, '96, '97, '98) were consistant threats to Karl's rankings for most of his career. Obviously part of this is a credit to his longevity, but in the context of this debate many of the players being mentioned have very little relevence as "competition". Moses, Dr J and Jabbar also have very little relevence here, Robinson (8; '91, '92, '93, '94, '95, '97, '98, '99) Ewing (4; '90, '92, '93, '94) and Barkley (5; '89, '90, '91, '93, '95) should have been part of the main argument instead of players whose primes coincided with Malone's only slightly and only by a loose definition of prime which isn't relevent to existing discussion.

[Owly]

Not to talk about 1st all nba team. 11 the Mailman vs 4th Dirk.

No, let's DO talk about it. Karl had to compete against NO ONE as good as or better than him for All-NBA. Barkley and a broken-in-half Bird. Meanwhile, Dirk's going up against prime Duncan, Garnett, LeBron, and lately Durant for All-NBA, ALL players in or above his class. You CANNOT compare accolades across eras and positions and be equitable. This argument makes me crazy!

Barkley couldn't do 11 times... so there's other pf/sf who pass him... but not mailman.

And so you have an excellent case (well, one solid supporting argument) for Malone over Barkley. I'm unsure how that assists him in this runoff versus Moses Malone and (now realisticially just) Dirk.

[BmanInBigD]

Dirk played Malone to at least a draw in 01 yet that's Mailman's prime still but Dirk's doesnt start for 4 more years despite being an all-NBA player all those years?

His playmaking isnt found in his assists as has been detailed over and over in this project. You can ignore it I guess, but his effect on offenses doesnt go away just because you want it to.

And name the big better at creating his own shot. You say you doubt it. So give me some bigs you think are his superior. Its not Shaq, RuselllKareem, Dream, Duncan, KG. either Malone, Admiral. Barkley is probably the closest I guess. You claim thats important for the top 16 and he's the best of the guys in or the primary guys considered for this spot.

Its odd that you hold Dirk alone to this standard. I acknowledge he's not a great defender, but I can't believe in 2014 that anyone still really thinks Dirk only contributes by scoring. You got mad when people suggested that about Kobe. Well Dirk is much the same. They are known primarily as scorers but capable of so much more.

There's no way Karl was still in his prime in 2001, thats a little ridiculous to say.

He was responding to the Biased Fan's statement that Karl has a huge longevity edge, having elite impact from 87-01. So Chuck's saying alright, if he was Prime in '01, and Dirk played him even, then Dirk was having elite impact in '01, which he was. Especially from '02 on, not from '05 on like the Biased one thinks. He's trying to have it both ways.

[lorak]

Ok, dropping Moses from the runoff since more than half of his supporters have defected. The current tally (through Post 237)

13 Karl Malone – ronnymac2, trex_8063, DHodgkins, FJS, SactoKingsFan, magicmerl, therealbig3, colts18, batmana, basketballefan, shutupandjam, DQuinn1575, An Unbiased Fan
13 Dirk – Quotatious, ardee, fpliii, penbeast0, john248, RayBan-Sematra, Doctor MJ, Chuck Texas, Narigo, Moonbeam, rich316, RSCD3_, ShaqAttack3234

(I'm a little unclear who ShaqAttack voted for, nothing was bolded. guessing it's for Dirk)

You didn't count my vote for Dirk (#200).

[Texas Chuck]

yeah that's a good question. I know Stockton takes some heat for not stepping up his scoring game in the PS(especially as he gets compared to Nash) and Sloan was certainly known to be a fairly stubborn guy and its kind of hard to blame him when you consider how great a weapon the Stockon/Malone PNR was.

I think the main issue for those Jazz teams is that they didn't really have a guy who was consistently creating his own looks. Hornacek and Malone were really good at what they did, but they counted on Stockton to get them the ball in good spots and of course he did this really really well. Their other key players were more defensive role player types.

I think the other thing to consider with Malone is that he simply didn't draw the same kind of attention Dirk did because of the stylistic differences of the players. Neither guy is going to be doubled on the perimeter, but Dirk operated a ton in the high post where he gets the ball with a live dribble. Some teams defended Dirk straight up and tried to keep JET and the other guys from beating them and others tended to double him and Dirk grew really good at beating the doubles with the first pass out and of course the Mavs were always among the best ball movement teams. Malone was either operating out of the PNR and rolling or popping or was down in the low post. He certainly drew double teams from there, but the options are reduced compared to where Dirk was operating because one of the offensive options(the drive) is removed plus the angles are tougher. Also its easier for teams to double the low post than the high post. Malone was a more skilled passer than Dirk was, but the distortion was less.

I think if FJS (and others) want to argue that Malone was every bit the scorer Dirk was I don't really have a problem with it. Dirk had a more diverse game, but Malone was really really good at the things he did. But in the playoffs where the same team sees you for a bunch of games in a row, you face better defenses, and better coaches, its simply easier to gameplan against Malone than Dirk which imo accounts for most of the difference in their playoff efficiency. You want to crowd Dirk to prevent the jumper? He will put the ball down and go around you. You want to prevent the parade to the FT line by putting a smaller, quicker guy on him? He will shoot over him over and over. You want to double him? He willingly passes it out almost every time and Dallas always had shooters to make teams pay so they had to go back and single Dirk. Rinse and Repeat. With Malone and the Jazz you could double Malone or blitz the PNR and the Jazz didn't really have the guys to make you pay for overplaying Malone and Stockton. That high post game of Dirk with his elite mid-range game to me is the difference here.

[Owly]

Response to earlier thread stuff

Spoiler:

I don't think the system is meant for you to aggregate across multiple players, just multiple years.

Old system says: 7 years of peak Jordan = 10 years of peak Malone

New system says: 1 year of peak Jordan = 3 years of peak Malone

Which do you prefer?

In as much as it represents any relative value (i.e. would anyone trade...) it should be valid by any measure.
And if it doesn't compare across multiple players, why are you using it to compare players. So far as I can tell, the original measure wasn't meant to be used as either.

But yours does seem to suggest Moses is worth roughly 2.5x David Robinson, or Robinson and Dirk together

The PoY shares is essentially a "value above replacement player" metric, where the baseline is very high.

What baseline do we use? Well, implicitly anyone who doesn't get a single PoY vote counts as zero. So in 2013-14, Joakim Noah counts as zero. Carmelo Anthony, Tony Parker, they're all zeros. This gives you an idea who the "replacement players" are when we discuss elites.

Under my system, Isiah Thomas has a career total score of 0.103, so he's a near-baseline player.

So the question is not whether Moses > Dirk + Robinson.

The question becomes whether Moses + Isiah > Dirk + Robinson.

That's a less obvious question.

Well now you're just admitting to gaming your system by adding people just below a "very high" baseline.

But if you want an example I'd say Moses and Isiah versus Dirk and Robinson and Robert Parish and Dikembe Mutombo and Shawn Marion and Larry Nance and Elton Brand and Paul Pierce and Reggie Miller and Ray Allen and Dave Bing and Chauncey Billups. Those guys are all near (sometimes below) baseline players if we can just add those.

And I don't know why you're ignoring the body of my post where I highlight why it isn't meant to be used comparing across years otherwise it would have been the compare the peaks project except with multiple years eligible for each player. It fundamentally isn't meant to be used like this.

But for what it's worth even with the attempts to game the system I would take Dirk and Robinson over Moses and Isiah. Because (in simplified form) Dirk and Robinson are both guys who've been in play recently, versus Moses whose in this ballpark and Isiah who has had no support, was rarely a top 5 guy in MVP or PotY, and who metrics suggest has been vastly overrated in retrospect.

To the main point now, I'm split between Dirk and Karl so am unlikely to vote. In terms of by the (RS) numbers Karl has the longevity (at a roughly equivalent level). Dirk does space the floor better which doesn't show up there, though perhaps Karl's D doesn't either. I'm not a huge playoff weighter (a lot of other stuff going on there other than player quality) but Dirk's playoff advantages primarily in scoring efficiency, but also turnovers, slight edge in scoring (to see one estimate of how much all this stuff together makes see his playoff OWS edge - 17.3 to 11.3 - in only a little over two thirds of the minutes. And that’s been reduced by Malone's edge on the offensive boards, which is partly a result of Dirk being out on the perimeter fairly frequently. So whilst OWS is certainly imperfect (and skews pro-efficiency and anti-usage, which would almost designed to be harsh against Malone - though Dirk scored slightly more, even per-possession, so within this conversation the usage point is moot). Anyhow Dirk’s playoff edge (and an aligned belief that it was perhaps easier to be elite with Dirk) seems significant enough that I couldn’t dismiss it and it does enough to more or less neutralise the longevity advantage. Can't decide, sorry guys (though if Iorak has indeed got an uncounted vote, and no one else does then we don't need a tie breaker).

[magicmerl]

You didn't count my vote for Dirk (#200).

Thanks. Some prople bold random parts of sentences to emphasise their arguements more, which can make it a little hard to see votes clearly when doing a tally, particularly if when you make your vote you don't bold the name of the person you're voting for. It would be helpful if your vote is something like My vote is for MJ in a paragraph all by itself either at the start or the end of your post.

14 Dirk – Quotatious, ardee, fpliii, penbeast0, john248, RayBan-Sematra, Doctor MJ, Chuck Texas, Narigo, Moonbeam, rich316, RSCD3_, ShaqAttack3234, Lorak

13 Karl Malone – ronnymac2, trex_8063, DHodgkins, FJS, SactoKingsFan, magicmerl, therealbig3, colts18, batmana, basketballefan, shutupandjam, DQuinn1575, An Unbiased Fan

[An Unbiased Fan]

He was responding to the Biased Fan's statement that Karl has a huge longevity edge, having elite impact from 87-01. So Chuck's saying alright, if he was Prime in '01, and Dirk played him even, then Dirk was having elite impact in '01, which he was. Especially from '02 on, not from '05 on like the Biased one thinks. He's trying to have it both ways.

I never said that was elite impact, so I don't get why you feel the need to make things up. I said Dirk's 05-11 years are the ones being used in the comparisons(the period where he played defense/went into the post), while Malone's span of 87-01 has been what gets referred to throughout this project.

The point is that Dirk, much like Nash, elevated himself from Al-Star level to truly great in 2005. But that span of greatness is rather short in comparisons to other greats up for the #16 spot. That's not a diss on Dirk, but reality. How can a guy who wasn't even Top 5 in his era, be #16 all-time?

[rich316]

Coming down to the wire, again! Seems like as we've gotten out of the top 10, we see less consensus, which is cool.

[SactoKingsFan]

You didn't count my vote for Dirk (#200).

Thanks. Some prople bold random parts of sentences to emphasise their arguements more, which can make it a little hard to see votes clearly when doing a tally, particularly if when you make your vote you don't bold the name of the person you're voting for. It would be helpful if your vote is something like My vote is for MJ in a paragraph all by itself either at the start or the end of your post.

14 Dirk – Quotatious, ardee, fpliii, penbeast0, john248, RayBan-Sematra, Doctor MJ, Chuck Texas, Narigo, Moonbeam, rich316, RSCD3_, ShaqAttack3234, Lorak

13 Karl Malone – ronnymac2, trex_8063, DHodgkins, FJS, SactoKingsFan, magicmerl, therealbig3, colts18, batmana, basketballefan, shutupandjam, DQuinn1575, An Unbiased Fan

drza voted for Dirk in post #211

[Imon]

Yeah, I feel like Dirk's high PnR and his two man game on the perimeter sometimes aren't given their just due because guys love to focus on his one-legged fadeaway.
Back when JET was still on the Mavs their 4th quarter offense was basically just Dirk and Terry playing the two man game.

This is Dirk with Barea on the high PnR. Notice how he draws Odom 30 feet away from the basket.
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Est9V44mhA[/youtube]

[DannyNoonan1221]

My run off vote is for Dirk

I wasn't expecting to change my vote but I feel like I have too. There is just too much (to me) that points to Dirk. His "defensive warp ability" has enormous impact on the game that is hard to measure.

How I separated these three:

Dirk has 2011. Everything he had done to that point in his career was fantastic but to me he hadn't validated his career until winning it all. Oscar and Moses had very similar situations- careers were validated for those two by switching teams, meshing seamlessly and helping their new team over the hump. That's not to say winning a championship alone is what validates it, but the situation they both stepped into was perfect; proving their dominance and impact on very solid teams and filling their roles rather than raising hell.

For Dirk, 2011 was perfect for him to validate his career. He didn't switch teams, they didn't bring in two all-star free agents. Cuban continued to build the team around Dirk, Dirk remained the man and he got it done, disproving any notion that had been created in prior years about choking or not having what it takes to win it all. For me, Dirk's validation season is slightly more impressive than Moses', as well as his ability to impact the game in all areas, something that Moses couldn't do.

For Malone, the quote that someone posted (sorry, i forgot who) regarding Malone vs Jordan solidified my vote change. It was hard to decide between Dirk and KM; I was hesitant with KM because I wasn't sure exactly how much impact Stockton had on his career. But that quote regarding KM's 'dependence' on Stockton for some of his offensive production was the support I personally needed to be confident in my belief of Stockton's role.

[penbeast0]

If there are no other objections, I will take magicmer1's count as gospel and declare that the winner is

DIRK NOWITZKI

Dirk does his happy dance

[Jaivl]

That's not a diss on Dirk, but reality. How can a guy who wasn't even Top 5 in his era, be #16 all-time?

Of course he is. Duncan, KG, Kobe, then Dirk. Shaq and LeBron are from different "eras" IMO... unless you want to say Malone wasn't top 5 in his era either (Jordan, Magic, Bird, Olajuwon, Shaq). Same with Moses (Jordan, Kareem, Erving, Bird, Magic...).

Anyway, it's a bad argument. Why should you penalize a player for playing in a crowded era?

Vote: Dirk Nowitzki. More easy to build around, can adapt to all offensive systems, PO-proven.

[rich316]

snip

This is an excellent example of what Dirk's "defense warping" is all about. It's no accident that JJ Barea had by far the most relevant moments of his career playing with Dirk, and pretty much faded into oblivion after that. Little guys who don't do much besides score aren't particularly valuable in the NBA, because of their physical limitations. Dirk is maybe the one player in the league who can turn the Bareas of the world into real contributors on a title team, because he drags those big guys out of the lane who would otherwise be swatting their floaters back into the 3rd row.

[An Unbiased Fan]

That's not a diss on Dirk, but reality. How can a guy who wasn't even Top 5 in his era, be #16 all-time?

Of course he is. Duncan, KG, Kobe, then Dirk. Shaq and LeBron are from different "eras" IMO... unless you want to say Malone wasn't top 5 in his era either (Jordan, Magic, Bird, Olajuwon, Shaq). Same with Moses (Jordan, Kareem, Erving, Bird, Magic...).

Anyway, it's a bad argument. Why should you penalize a player for playing in a crowded era?

Vote: Dirk Nowitzki. More easy to build around, can adapt to all offensive systems, PO-proven.

I use the 00's as his era, and I have Kobe/Duncan/Shaq/Lebron/KG ahead of Dirk. All 5 had more Top 5 seasons in that span than Dirk.

Malone was definitely a Top 5 player for the 90's behind MJ, Hakeem. He was Top 5 arguable some years in the 80's too.

[Imon]

snip

This is an excellent example of what Dirk's "defense warping" is all about. It's no accident that JJ Barea had by far the most relevant moments of his career playing with Dirk, and pretty much faded into oblivion after that. Little guys who don't do much besides score aren't particularly valuable in the NBA, because of their physical limitations. Dirk is maybe the one player in the league who can turn the Bareas of the world into real contributors on a title team, because he drags those big guys out of the lane who would otherwise be swatting their floaters back into the 3rd row.

Funny ... you'd think if there were any other team Barea could go to it would be the Wolves who had Love - another PF with range.
Like most people I'm not totally sure why it didn't work out for Barea. I guess it was just that the Wolves bench in general was a tire fire.

[BmanInBigD]

He was responding to the Biased Fan's statement that Karl has a huge longevity edge, having elite impact from 87-01. So Chuck's saying alright, if he was Prime in '01, and Dirk played him even, then Dirk was having elite impact in '01, which he was. Especially from '02 on, not from '05 on like the Biased one thinks. He's trying to have it both ways.

I never said that was elite impact, so I don't get why you feel the need to make things up. I said Dirk's 05-11 years are the ones being used in the comparisons(the period where he played defense/went into the post), while Malone's span of 87-01 has been what gets referred to throughout this project.

The point is that Dirk, much like Nash, elevated himself from Al-Star level to truly great in 2005. But that span of greatness is rather short in comparisons to other greats up for the #16 spot. That's not a diss on Dirk, but reality. How can a guy who wasn't even Top 5 in his era, be #16 all-time?

I don't need to make things up to make your arguments look dumb. Look at post #226. Basically, "Malone had consistent elite impact from 87-01".