Suns and Bledsoe on the Verge of Irreparable Relationship

[NaturalBuns]

So is the Q offer coming?

Bledsoe would be losing so much money and taking the risk of getting hurt.
He should sign on for 2years or be traded.

I think the CBA says 6years before you can get that BIG time money.
In two years he would be 26 basically peaking for his style and a new revenue TV deal would be coming
In which players will be getting paid more. That's what I would do at least.


I can't see him taking a QO in no way does it benefit him financially.

[I_Never Lied]

Steve Nash played at high level into his late 30s. John Stockton was still an all-star at age 40.
Size has nothing to do with it. Guys who are reliant on athleticism (speed, hops, etc.) are the ones whose careers fade faster.

Bledsoe is looking for a bloated max contract and is a huge injury risk. Dragic will sign at a fraction of the max and will give you 4-5 prime years of high level play. If given the choice between the two today, most logical GMs would take Dragic.

John Stockton was on the 92' dream team. Steve Nash has two MVP's. Goran Dragic is Goran Dragic. If you really think 4-5 years from now Dragic will still be a high level player then you're just flat out wrong. 4 years from now, when Goran Dragic is 33 years old, he will either be starting for a bottom feeder like the 76'ers, or coming off the bench for fringe playoff team.

At this same point in time, Bledsoe will still be running fast and jumping high.

His point, which I agree with, is that PGs in general seem to be able to play their peak game longer than other positions. The rules protect them and they generally are not very physical in their games. I agree the most athletic ones would fall off faster, but I think Dragic at 32 will be pretty close to his peak especially because he will have even more intangibles and experience by then to rely on. PG is a very mental position.

But his point is all wrong. Its the other way around. In the last 5 years the only PG's to play at a high level after 32 are...

Chauncey Billups
Steve Nash
Jason Terry
Andre Miller


That is just Four guys in the last 5 years. So yea, this is not common at all and not something to 'expect' out of a guy like Dragic. Especially to pass up on a dynamic young athlete like Bledsoe.

You can't deny history.

[inquisitive]

I think Bledsoe is not even confident about his own health; otherwise, he would've signed the QO already....what is taking him so long

[Trader_Joe]

John Stockton was on the 92' dream team. Steve Nash has two MVP's. Goran Dragic is Goran Dragic. If you really think 4-5 years from now Dragic will still be a high level player then you're just flat out wrong. 4 years from now, when Goran Dragic is 33 years old, he will either be starting for a bottom feeder like the 76'ers, or coming off the bench for fringe playoff team.

At this same point in time, Bledsoe will still be running fast Kidd
jumping high.

His point, which I agree with, is that PGs in general seem to be able to play their peak game longer than other positions. The rules protect them and they generally are not very physical in their games. I agree the most athletic ones would fall off faster, but I think Dragic at 32 will be pretty close to his peak especially because he will have even more intangibles and experience by then to rely on. PG is a very mental position.

But his point is all wrong. Its the other way around. In the last 5 years the only PG's to play at a high level after 32 are...

Chauncey Billups
Steve Nash
Jason Terry
Andre Miller


That is just Four guys in the last 5 years. So yea, this is not common at all and not something to 'expect' out of a guy like Dragic. Especially to pass up on a dynamic young athlete like Bledsoe.

You can't deny history.

PG only became deep again recently with a new influx of young guys.
Also aren't we talking about up to 32 and not after?
BTW where are..
Kidd
Hinrich
Iverson

And I think Paul, Parker, Calderon and others are holding up pretty well as they hit 30.

It will be interesting to see how this next crop does, but I don't think 32 year old Dragic will be noticeably worse than 28,year old Dragic.

[Warspite]

Whatever argument you make in Bledsoe vs Dragic still hurts Beldsoe. Dragic makes MLE money. Being better than a MLE player doesnt make you a Max player. Bledsoe needs to be twice as good as Dragic to be a Max player.

Im not sure Bledsoe will still be in the NBA in 4 yrs. His knee is shot and its just a matter of time before it goes out. The Dr did not repair his knee he simply took the tendon out.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Jose Calderonand Tony Parker also fit your description, unless Parker falls off a cliff. Most NBA players don't make it past 32 without dropping off substantially, though. It isn't just a pg thing.

Bledsoe is a different can of worms. Even Bledsoe himself has doubts about his ability to run, jump, etc. in 4 years or he'd have signed the qo by now, or taken a 4 year offer.

[Hodges4Three]

Dude hasn't proven jack sh*t yet and is looking for a max deal....just LOL.

Hope it backfires and he ends up with a lot less.
Dude is being greedy and obviously has an inflated sense of worth.

[lakersin4]

He should get a Lance deal with more yearly.. possibly even the max.. 3 years with a team option.

[Hodges4Three]

How many 32 year old point guards are still in their prime? Dragic is at his absolute peak, it only goes downhill from here. Just like in the NFL, they don't wait until you start sucking before they cut you. And no, you can't accurately quantify defense, basketball reference has Carlos Boozer as a top 10 defender.

Time Money Future. You can't comprehend.

Actually contracts in the nba work nothing like the nfl. The contracts are guaranteed, which means you don't get cut. It's why Boozer has been starting for the bulls the last two years.

Dragic doesn't rely on athleticism, where you see shorter peaks and earlier primes. He'll be just fine at 32, in the same way Ginobli was.

And what's Carlos boozer top 10 in over there?

Carlos Boozer is top 10 in DRTG on basketball reference. You cannot rely on those straw-man stats.

Athleticism has nothing to so with it, It is size. Guys under 6'4 do not extend primes past 31-32. Ginobli is 6'6, a HOF and is also straight up a better player than Dragic. This is the main reason why the owners shortened the lengths of contracts. Again please find me some 32 year old PG in their prime. In 4 years Dragic will be Steve Blake, while Bledsoe will still be a MAX contract guy.


You want Steve Blake?

LOL you just pulled that one out of your ass. Show me some statistics that guys under 6'4" have shorter primes. If anything taller players are far more likely to have joint issues and other problems as they get older.

I'd bet anything Dragic plays at a higher level much longer than Bledsoe. His playing style simply ages better.

Explosive PGs like D-Rose, Westbrook, Bledsoe etc have a short shelf life and will in most cases burn out faster than guards in the mold of Dragic, Nash, CP3 that are more skills-based players because their effectiveness is heavily reliant on athleticism, and that is the first thing to go with age.

[og15]

I would take Dragic over Bledsoe, for two reasons.

1. Bledsoe seems injury prone, and I think he has had part of his meniscus removed. I think that Wade's issues with his knee have to do with missing meniscus

2. Bledsoe is a bit undersized at 6' 0.25" barefoot.

There is a 3.5 year age difference between Dragic and Bledsoe, but the Total Career Minutes difference is about 5,000 minutes (10,600 to 5,500). That's about 1.5-2.0 seasons or so.

Dragic's ORTG/DRTG from BBall Ref last year was 119/109 (+9). Bledsoe's was 110/106 (+4). Their WS/48 were .186 (GD) to .140 (EB).

Dragic is the bigger and better player, at least at this time. My guess is he will have less injury issues going forward, also, as compared with the shorter Bledsoe.

Careful with individual Drtg, not really a stat that says too much. At it's most basic, it is team defensive rating plus defensive stats (defensive rebounds, steals, blocks), it isn't the teams Drtg when the player is on which I think is what most people believe it represents. If you want to find that, look at on/off numbers. Not sure there's much real value to individual Drtg.

Whatever argument you make in Bledsoe vs Dragic still hurts Beldsoe. Dragic makes MLE money. Being better than a MLE player doesnt make you a Max player. Bledsoe needs to be twice as good as Dragic to be a Max player.

Im not sure Bledsoe will still be in the NBA in 4 yrs. His knee is shot and its just a matter of time before it goes out. The Dr did not repair his knee he simply took the tendon out.

Dragic makes MLE money but isn't an MLE talent, he's a bargain at his contract, can't neglect that.

[NothingButLuck]

How many 32 year old point guards are still in their prime? Dragic is at his absolute peak, it only goes downhill from here. Just like in the NFL, they don't wait until you start sucking before they cut you. And no, you can't accurately quantify defense, basketball reference has Carlos Boozer as a top 10 defender.

Time Money Future. You can't comprehend.

Dragic's similarity comp (bb-ref) for the modern era includes Nash and Billups, as well as Harper. Nash and Billups played well into at least their mid 30s. Harper's decline in numbers is due to the fact he was traded to the Bulls.

You can get a good idea of the quality of the defense played with APM-variant stats and Synergy stats (w/ video clip).

[baubo]

I see no reason why the Suns would look at Dragic to be the "just in case" plan for Bledsoe. He'll be a FA next year barring unforseen injuries. He'll likely command a huge amount of money that will move him well into his 30s. And it's unlikely that Phoenix will want to pay up. If Phoenix skips on Bledsoe only to give Dragic something like a 4yr/$60mil contract, they're not really coming out on top.

I think Phoenix really wants to get this done. But they're hold firm on the fact that Bledsoe's much more desperate than them because it screws Bledsoe much more to take the QO than it does the Suns.

[ubernathan]

Bledsoe should just take the qualifying offer and sit the year out. So what if he forfeits his pay, he'll be a free agent next year and get a big contract since he stayed injury free.

[Joe Berry]

Bledsoe should just take the qualifying offer and sit the year out. So what if he forfeits his pay, he'll be a free agent next year and get a big contract since he stayed injury free.

Thats a 40+ mil dollar gamble in order to get 60+ mil next year. Good lock with that.

[HotRocks34]

I would take Dragic over Bledsoe, for two reasons.

1. Bledsoe seems injury prone, and I think he has had part of his meniscus removed. I think that Wade's issues with his knee have to do with missing meniscus

2. Bledsoe is a bit undersized at 6' 0.25" barefoot.

There is a 3.5 year age difference between Dragic and Bledsoe, but the Total Career Minutes difference is about 5,000 minutes (10,600 to 5,500). That's about 1.5-2.0 seasons or so.

Dragic's ORTG/DRTG from BBall Ref last year was 119/109 (+9). Bledsoe's was 110/106 (+4). Their WS/48 were .186 (GD) to .140 (EB).

Dragic is the bigger and better player, at least at this time. My guess is he will have less injury issues going forward, also, as compared with the shorter Bledsoe.

Careful with individual Drtg, not really a stat that says too much. At it's most basic, it is team defensive rating plus defensive stats (defensive rebounds, steals, blocks), it isn't the teams Drtg when the player is on which I think is what most people believe it represents. If you want to find that, look at on/off numbers. Not sure there's much real value to individual Drtg.

Good point. I did know that it was "individual DRTG" and that is why I used it here, because I just wanted to get some kind of ballpark "feel" for where GD and EB might be at (in Individual ORTG/DRTG).

All the numbers show Bledsoe is the better defender.

Individual DRTG (lower is better)

GD --> 109
EB ---> 106


Defensive xRAPM (larger positive number is better)

GD --> -0.9
EB ---> +3.0


Defensive points per 100 possessions (On - Off) (larger negative number is better)

GD --> +0.6
EB ---> -6.2

*
*
*

The difference in the overall effectiveness of the players comes because the gap between Dragic's On/Off offense and Bledsoe's On/Off offense is larger than the gap between Bledsoe's On/Off defense and Dragic's On/Off defense (which is the point I was trying to make with the individual ORTG/DRTG stuff I first put in).

As Dragic has a negative xRAPM for defense (2013-14), so Bledsoe has a negative xRAPM for offense (2013-14). The numbers work out such that, according to 82games, here are the Net Points Per 100 Possessions for each player for the 2013-14 season (larger positive number is better). This is the positive number of points that the player adds to the team by being "on" the court rather than "off" of it Per 100 Possessions.

GD --> +9.5
EB ---> +3.0

The difference there being 6.5. The difference between the two "positive net's" in the Individual ORTG - Individual DRTG was 5 (+9 vs +4). So, the Individual ORTG/DRTG in this instance was fairly on target, if only for this one example. Still, I'm sure On/Off and xRAPM are better or more exact measurements, or more useful.


PLAIN ENGLISH SUMMARY:


* Dragic had a slightly negative effect for PHX's defense by being "on" the court in 2013-14
* Bledsoe had a slightly negative effect for PHX's offense by being "on" the court in 2013-14

* Dragic had a substantially positive effect for PHX's offense by being "on" the court in 2013-14
* Bledsoe had a substantially positive effect for PHX's defense by being "on" the court in 2013-14

* Dragic's positive effect on PHX's offense was larger than Bledsoe's positive effect on PHX's defense when each player was "on" the court in 2013-14.

[HotRocks34]

^ I just re-wrote the end of that post and added a "Plain English Summary" so that it hopefully makes more sense for readers.

[baubo]

Bledsoe should just take the qualifying offer and sit the year out. So what if he forfeits his pay, he'll be a free agent next year and get a big contract since he stayed injury free.

The same lack of market this year will remain the same next year. There's not going to be a bunch of PGs about to retire soon. And he'll have to compete with Rondo and Dragic on the market where he look like the 3rd best PG available. Teams weren't even trying to get him when he's the definitive best PG in FA. He's not getting better offers when it's a more saturated market waiting for him.

[ChuckChilly]

are there any other six foot guards that earn max money outside of Chris Paul? This guys agent has gone mad.

[Sofa King]

are there any other six foot guards that earn max money outside of Chris Paul? This guys agent has gone mad.

He's also Lebron's agent

[marcush]

I hope this kid doesn't blow his knee out before he gets paid, doesn't look as though his agent is playing this too well. Sign the 4yr 48m, get him paid.