Extension offer for Butler thought

[Alswank87]

He should get a contract identical to Thabo sefolosha's.

Don't agree, but that's not how it works anyway.

Both are lock down defenders,

Neither are lock down defenders.

both have broken jump shots, both are about the same height and do the same things.

Well I'll just reiterate, not how it works. Sometimes definitely other contracts are used as a basis in contract discussions, but it's not really likely in this case, as much as you want to pretend they are such similar players.

Pretend!? How are they not similar players? They have the play the exact same role. I won't argue the point that Jimmy b will get paid more than Thabo, he definitely will, but how can you argue that they aren't similar players?

And if neither of those two are lock down defenders, who in the nba is a lock down defender?

[RedBulls23]

if you are looking at offense, I think Jimmy can step it up but Ariza was assisted on 76% and Jimmy was at 69%

It doesn't matter what he was assisted on. Jimmy absolutely was terrible offensively last year.

Like I have been saying. If Jimmy is going to be worth 10-12 million, he's going to have to get much better offensively.

[2015nbachamps]

Jimmy is only worth 8 million per year if he can continue to lock down defenders and hit 3's like he did the year before when he took open shots without much hesitation and made about 37-38%...and if he can do that then our wings are set...jimmy and mcderm.

but last year's version of jimmy is only worth Thabo money AT BEST...4 millionish per year...recall Thabo was hitting around 37% of his 3's for the thunder.

I would also say that due to Lebron, melo, et al hitting the market this year...just like in 2010...many teams maneuvered for cap space...there will not be a ton of teams positioning for cap space next year...or the year after...teams are figuring out that big time free agents are getting "talked into" coming to their team anymore.

The Houstons, dallas' and chicagos have just about had their last stinging of that sort.

I would also add that afflalo is a significantly better player than Butler...the writing had been on the wall in terms of him being capable to do what he did last year for many years...similar with Wesley Mathews. Butler hasn't shown that yet...this is his year to show that...he needs to be taking 4-5 3's per game and making at least 37% of them to get paid in the 8 million per year range.

[kyrv]

He should get a contract identical to Thabo sefolosha's.

Don't agree, but that's not how it works anyway.

Both are lock down defenders,

Neither are lock down defenders.

both have broken jump shots, both are about the same height and do the same things.

Well I'll just reiterate, not how it works. Sometimes definitely other contracts are used as a basis in contract discussions, but it's not really likely in this case, as much as you want to pretend they are such similar players.

Pretend!? How are they not similar players? They have the play the exact same role. I won't argue the point that Jimmy b will get paid more than Thabo, he definitely will, but how can you argue that they aren't similar players?

And if neither of those two are lock down defenders, who in the nba is a lock down defender?

Umm...NBA rules prohibit being able to lock down perimeter players. You basically can't touch players.

Who do YOU think are lock down defenders?

[kyrv]

I guess it would be interesting seeing how their Synergy numbers look. Ariza had a better on/off court for defense, but jimmy has a slight higher dws (.9 higher). I think they are comparable.

My point is that if the best Jimmy is that a 38% 3 Pt shooter and very good defender which is what Ariza is, he would be worth the same.

Paying a perimeter player 10-12 mil a year when he likely would be the 4th or 5th best starter is a bit ridiculous. I could understand if he was a big and a rim protector, but he's not. It would be a mistake to give Jimmy that much money without showing he can do more offensively.

if you are looking at offense, I think Jimmy can step it up but Ariza was assisted on 76% and Jimmy was at 69%

It doesn't matter what he was assisted on. Jimmy absolutely was terrible offensively last year.

Like I have been saying. If Jimmy is going to be worth 10-12 million, he's going to have to get much better offensively.

He has been better though. Last year did not match his career averages.

[ingvald]

I think there are two different discussions going on here. Are we talking about-
1) how much we think the Bulls should offer/pay Butler
or
2) how much we think some other team will offer/pay Butler as a UFA?

IMO, if the Bulls shouldn't pay Butler $10M per year unless he becomes a 3-and-D guy. Right now, he's just a D guy.

However, I can totally see a team like the Knicks overpaying Jimmy because they have money to burn and need to improve their roster. That's usually how free agency works. So if I had to predict the future, Jimmy's days with the Bulls are numbered.

[sco]

If Jimmy isn't shooting 38% from 3...Knicks can have him. Then again, I'm a NY'er. It won't be them paying him $10M.

[RedBulls23]

He has been better though. Last year did not match his career averages.

I think he can get better, but how much is the key. If he reverts back to 2011 form, then he's worth 8 million. Offensive low volume 3 and D guy.

The argument being made is that if he does that, then he's worth 10-12 million. He needs to be a more higher volume scorer to be worth that kind of coin.

[bullsnewdynasty]

People keep referencing Butler's 3 point percentage from the previous season but the problem is that he was attempting barely over 1 three pointer per game. It's hard to say that a guy is a good shooter when he's hardly even pulling the trigger.

[PaKii94]

People keep referencing Butler's 3 point percentage from the previous season but the problem is that he was attempting barely over 1 three pointer per game. It's hard to say that a guy is a good shooter when he's hardly even pulling the trigger.

post allstar break he shot 2per on 47.5% in 33 mins (2.2per p36)
during the playoffs he shot 3.1per on 40.5% (2.7per 36)

obviously he's not a sharpshooter but he was knocking down shots, and that did continue in this year until he went down for turf-toe

he was shooting 2.9per on 38.5% in 30 mins (3.5per p36)

I know a lot of people go on about his horrid performance but seriously, he was hurt people.\


that's a 51 game sample size... dont you guys think if it was a hot streak he would have cooled off earlier? Or atleast over the offseason?

[SpinninHouse]

Just because a player can get x amount of money on the open market doesn't mean we should sign him for that amount (or even a little less right now). Didn't Channing Frye get $8M/year this summer? Awful, awful value. Why don't we see how the season starts to play out?

If we determine we're still horrific offensively but we're locked into Jimmy at $8.5M/year, we have little chance of improving. We'd be paying like $30M/year alone to Noah, Taj, and Jimmy.
At some point we might determine that we need a 20ppg scorer.




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[molepharmer]

Seems that the Bulls should at least try to gauge what it'll take to sign Jimmy next season; that is, if he goes into free agency. So they should make an offer to him like they did Luol. I'm not saying $10 mil per, as much as getting a sense for what Jimmy and his agent expect. If Butler flat out rejects the offer and the two sides are a fair distance apart, then like Lu, Jimmy's name should be the first one to be included in any trade talks.

[bullsnewdynasty]

People keep referencing Butler's 3 point percentage from the previous season but the problem is that he was attempting barely over 1 three pointer per game. It's hard to say that a guy is a good shooter when he's hardly even pulling the trigger.

post allstar break he shot 2per on 47.5% in 33 mins (2.2per p36)
during the playoffs he shot 3.1per on 40.5% (2.7per 36)

obviously he's not a sharpshooter but he was knocking down shots, and that did continue in this year until he went down for turf-toe

he was shooting 2.9per on 38.5% in 30 mins (3.5per p36)

I know a lot of people go on about his horrid performance but seriously, he was hurt people.\

that's a 51 game sample size... dont you guys think if it was a hot streak he would have cooled off earlier? Or atleast over the offseason?

Butler played 41 minutes per game post all-star break. That's impossible to do if you're "hurt." Let's just call it like it is and say his shot was broken last year. No need to make up excuses.

You are correct in that Butler showed he could hit the 3 at an acceptable rate for a stretch of games, but he's hardly a guy you look to for 3 pointers, or offense in general. People hated Bogans but he basically shot the same percent on 3's (on similar number of attempts) for a longer stretch of games.

[sco]

People keep referencing Butler's 3 point percentage from the previous season but the problem is that he was attempting barely over 1 three pointer per game. It's hard to say that a guy is a good shooter when he's hardly even pulling the trigger.

post allstar break he shot 2per on 47.5% in 33 mins (2.2per p36)
during the playoffs he shot 3.1per on 40.5% (2.7per 36)

obviously he's not a sharpshooter but he was knocking down shots, and that did continue in this year until he went down for turf-toe

he was shooting 2.9per on 38.5% in 30 mins (3.5per p36)

I know a lot of people go on about his horrid performance but seriously, he was hurt people.\

that's a 51 game sample size... dont you guys think if it was a hot streak he would have cooled off earlier? Or atleast over the offseason?

Butler played 41 minutes per game post all-star break. That's impossible to do if you're "hurt." Let's just call it like it is and say his shot was broken last year. No need to make up excuses.

You are correct in that Butler showed he could hit the 3 at an acceptable rate for a stretch of games, but he's hardly a guy you look to for 3 pointers, or offense in general. People hated Bogans but he basically shot the same percent on 3's (on similar number of attempts) for a longer stretch of games.

I do believe he was hurt. I think he found a way to play through the turf toe. He even said, it may not go away. That said, I think it affected his game (i.e. ability to drive and ability to shoot) just enough to mess up his offense.

If Jimmy is healthy and can stay healthy and return to being that above average offensive player that we saw at the end of 2 seasons ago, I am fine paying him. But it is not a gimme, that he will ever return to that level (ie Deng's career was marred by a series of nagging injuries that limited his offensive success).

[kyrv]

post allstar break he shot 2per on 47.5% in 33 mins (2.2per p36)
during the playoffs he shot 3.1per on 40.5% (2.7per 36)

obviously he's not a sharpshooter but he was knocking down shots, and that did continue in this year until he went down for turf-toe

he was shooting 2.9per on 38.5% in 30 mins (3.5per p36)

I know a lot of people go on about his horrid performance but seriously, he was hurt people.\

that's a 51 game sample size... dont you guys think if it was a hot streak he would have cooled off earlier? Or atleast over the offseason?

Butler played 41 minutes per game post all-star break. That's impossible to do if you're "hurt." Let's just call it like it is and say his shot was broken last year. No need to make up excuses.

You are correct in that Butler showed he could hit the 3 at an acceptable rate for a stretch of games, but he's hardly a guy you look to for 3 pointers, or offense in general. People hated Bogans but he basically shot the same percent on 3's (on similar number of attempts) for a longer stretch of games.

I do believe he was hurt. I think he found a way to play through the turf toe. He even said, it may not go away. That said, I think it affected his game (i.e. ability to drive and ability to shoot) just enough to mess up his offense.

If Jimmy is healthy and can stay healthy and return to being that above average offensive player that we saw at the end of 2 seasons ago, I am fine paying him. But it is not a gimme, that he will ever return to that level (ie Deng's career was marred by a series of nagging injuries that limited his offensive success).

Good points. I'm also not sure the difference between Butler guarding LeWeightloss/Me$o/George and average guy defending him, and what that difference is worth.

Maybe Re or one of our other advanced stat dudes can chime in?

Right now the 8 mil number seems good.

[drosestruts]

From Kevin Pelton's ESPN chat today:

Michael (Chicago)

Kevin thank you for continuing your chats throughout the summer, has a basketball fiend, I can never have enough. My question is about Jimmy Butler, the Bulls extended Noah, Rose and Gibson before allowing them to reach RFA. Will they follow suit here with Butler, and how much do you think it will cost?

Kevin Pelton (3:10 PM)

Given the robust market for wings in restricted free agency, I think they will attempt to do so and will be wise to get it done barring outrageous demands from Butler and his agent. Be prepared for a higher number than seems reasonable for a role player -- possibly $10 million per year.

[PaKii94]

People keep referencing Butler's 3 point percentage from the previous season but the problem is that he was attempting barely over 1 three pointer per game. It's hard to say that a guy is a good shooter when he's hardly even pulling the trigger.

post allstar break he shot 2per on 47.5% in 33 mins (2.2per p36)
during the playoffs he shot 3.1per on 40.5% (2.7per 36)

obviously he's not a sharpshooter but he was knocking down shots, and that did continue in this year until he went down for turf-toe

he was shooting 2.9per on 38.5% in 30 mins (3.5per p36)

I know a lot of people go on about his horrid performance but seriously, he was hurt people.\

that's a 51 game sample size... dont you guys think if it was a hot streak he would have cooled off earlier? Or atleast over the offseason?

Butler played 41 minutes per game post all-star break. That's impossible to do if you're "hurt." Let's just call it like it is and say his shot was broken last year. No need to make up excuses.

You are correct in that Butler showed he could hit the 3 at an acceptable rate for a stretch of games, but he's hardly a guy you look to for 3 pointers, or offense in general. People hated Bogans but he basically shot the same percent on 3's (on similar number of attempts) for a longer stretch of games.

Or the fact that there were 6 players in the rotation without him? I'm not saying he's an elite shooter, that's why any small minor thing that can affect his shot will be devastating, v like we saw last year. Those heavy minutes are the reason recovery takes longer. The best and basically only treatment is rest by taking time off the feet and physical therapy. That Jimmy didn't have the luxury to have.

Coming into the year, people noticed that he had a nicer arc, come post turf toe, they were line drive clankers. That's due to over compensation from arm

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