RealGM Top 100 List #18

[Ryoga Hibiki]

I think Moses is up there with the best offensive rebounders, may even be the best, but his numbers don't really suggest his impact. He used to get 2 or 3 of those rebounds on the same possessions, which meant that was 2 or 3 possessions where he didn't score. A lot of people associate offensive reboundings with put backs, but there is no guarantee that an offensive rebound will lead to a basket. Moses used to put up shots that wouldn't go in, but his rebounding ability was so good he could always just recapture the ball - again, not penalizing him for this tactic, but that means those 7 offensive rebounds he's grabbing really has the impact of like 3 or 4 offensive rebounds, which still makes him the best offensive rebounder in the league, but not the Jesus of basketball like some may believe if you just looked at the boxscore.

if you don't consider those offensive rebounds then neither you should consider those missed shots, it means that his real ts% is actually much higher than the recorded.
For instance, in 82 his ts% was not .576 but at least .620, right?

[D Nice]

Why do people keep insisting that Dream outplayed Admiral H2H when the evidence says the contrary?

I get the post-season series went Dream's way, but that's got sample size issues. The RS is a massive edge for Admiral in efficiency and w/l and no the Spurs supporting cast wasnt the reason why considering Dream had both better teammates and a better coach.

Stop perpetuating that myth. Dream deserves to be ranked ahead of Admiral and is, but let's not just pretend what happened when they faced each other can be erased by one playoff series with Dream at his peak.

1. Both players were at their peak. It is disingenuous to refer to that year as Dream's peak without acknowledging it is also D-Rob's.

2. Calling Dream's teams "more talented" is highly suspect. The supporting casts were not seen as being on different "tiers" prior to the Drexler trade. Sean Elliot was >> any Rocket Hakeem as paired with over that timeframe.

3. If you see PS examination as having "sample issues" then this would hold true, for more or for less, of most analysis predicated on the post-season. Your regular season data isn't a very representative sample either. At least in PS games teams are playing on an equal playing field (there are no inherent schedule/injury advantages). Regular season matchups are pitting teams in different stages of their "seasonal life-span" against each other. I'm not saying to throw it out the window completely, but 1 series at least equally valuable to a 30-game RS sample, if not more.

4. It has been stressed several times that Robinson's flaws are the types that are exposed when teams have time to prepare and pay more attention to game-planning. Regular season coaching is about getting your team to play the way YOU want them to play. PS coaching is about dissecting your opponent. No superstar in history suffers more from this than D-Rob. Of course his regular season output is going to be more in line with what he did against everybody else.

Comparing their box-score data is not a conclusive way of discerning who was "better." Hakeem was one of the most double-teamed players in the history of the game, and was responsible as much for getting other guys shots as he was his own. David strictly operates as a play finisher. For someone who is such a fan of Dirk, this is something that should be rather clear to you.

It's probably not super-relevant to the current discussion, but stating that Hakeem embarrassed (or whatever descriptor you prefer) David is not a myth.

[90sAllDecade]

Haven't had time to participate guys, so I won't be voting this thread unless it's a runoff. I'll try to vote next thread.

But one note on the Robinson H2H with Hakeem in the regular season, if it wasn't already mentioned. Didn't Robinson have four years of youth and playing against a 39 year old Hakeem vs a 35 year old Robinson would skew those numbers?

I would only use 89-96 averages or so (or end the year DRob gets injured), since Olajuwon was post prime and four years older.

It's inaccurate and similar to using Shaq vs Dwight h2h, in which Howard looks better because of youth imo.

[HeartBreakKid]

I think Moses is up there with the best offensive rebounders, may even be the best, but his numbers don't really suggest his impact. He used to get 2 or 3 of those rebounds on the same possessions, which meant that was 2 or 3 possessions where he didn't score. A lot of people associate offensive reboundings with put backs, but there is no guarantee that an offensive rebound will lead to a basket. Moses used to put up shots that wouldn't go in, but his rebounding ability was so good he could always just recapture the ball - again, not penalizing him for this tactic, but that means those 7 offensive rebounds he's grabbing really has the impact of like 3 or 4 offensive rebounds, which still makes him the best offensive rebounder in the league, but not the Jesus of basketball like some may believe if you just looked at the boxscore.

if you don't consider those offensive rebounds then neither you should consider those missed shots, it means that his real ts% is actually much higher than the recorded.
For instance, in 82 his ts% was not .576 but at least .620, right?

Hm..not exactly. A lot of those bad shots he threw up didn't end up in him getting an offensive rebound, much less a put back. Even if his efficiency is higher than his stats show (which I think is not a terrible assumption), I'm not sure if it is nearly as great as you put it. Regardless, he was a very effective isolation player, so him having the offensive ability to have 60 TS% doesn't seem strange to me.

[Jim Naismith]

Why do people keep insisting that Dream outplayed Admiral H2H when the evidence says the contrary?

I get the post-season series went Dream's way, but that's got sample size issues. The RS is a massive edge for Admiral in efficiency and w/l and no the Spurs supporting cast wasnt the reason why considering Dream had both better teammates and a better coach.

3. If you see PS examination as "sample issues" then this would hold true, for more or for less, of most analysis predicated on the post-season. Your regular season data isn't a very representative sample either. At least in PS games teams are playing on an equal playing field. Regular season matchups are pitting teams in different stages of their "seasonal life-span" against each other. I'm not saying to throw it out the window completely, but 1 series at least equally valuable to a 30-game RS same, if not more.

The postseason is the best gauge of both player and team quality. Just look at the 2014 Nets.

Brooklyn Nets vs. Miami Heat
Regular season: 4-0
Postseason: 1-4

[Ryoga Hibiki]

Hm..not exactly. A lot of those bad shots he threw up didn't end up in him getting an offensive rebound, much less a put back. Even if his efficiency is higher than his stats show (which I think is not a terrible assumption), I'm not sure if it is nearly as great as you put it. Regardless, he was a very effective isolation player, so him having the offensive ability to have 60 TS% doesn't seem strange to me.

well, if really he had 2-3 "fake" off reb that means you have to take 2-3 missed shors. The impact on ts% would be really huge, the math is actually easy.
Also, I wouldn't call them bad shots, it was an unorthodox but effective strategy, if he really was in position to recover so many of them.

[90sAllDecade]

On a side-note, if Robinson and Moses gets in I'd like to start advocating for Dwight Howard soon.

As I think his ability as a two way player, all time great defense at the center position and the fact that he gets better in the playoffs is a definite plus for him imo.

[colts18]

Its interesting that D-Wade finished #22 in 2011 and has won 2 titles since then, yet he has received 0 support so far.

[Texas Chuck]

Spoiler:

Why do people keep insisting that Dream outplayed Admiral H2H when the evidence says the contrary?

I get the post-season series went Dream's way, but that's got sample size issues. The RS is a massive edge for Admiral in efficiency and w/l and no the Spurs supporting cast wasnt the reason why considering Dream had both better teammates and a better coach.

Stop perpetuating that myth. Dream deserves to be ranked ahead of Admiral and is, but let's not just pretend what happened when they faced each other can be erased by one playoff series with Dream at his peak.

1. Both players were at their peak. It is disingenuous to refer to that year as Dream's peak without acknowledging it is also D-Rob's.

2. Calling Dream's teams "more talented" is highly suspect. The supporting casts were not seen as being on different "tiers" prior to the Drexler trade. Sean Elliot was >> any Rocket Hakeem as paired with over that timeframe.

3. If you see PS examination as "sample issues" then this would hold true, for more or for less, of most analysis predicated on the post-season. Your regular season data isn't a very representative sample either. At least in PS games teams are playing on an equal playing field (there are no inherent schedule/injury advantages). Regular season matchups are pitting teams in different stages of their "seasonal life-span" against each other. I'm not saying to throw it out the window completely, but 1 series at least equally valuable to a 30-game RS same, if not more.

4. It has been stressed several times that Robinson's flaws are the types that are exposed when teams have time to prepare and pay more attention to game-planning. Regular season coaching is about getting your team to play the way YOU want them to play. PS coaching is about dissecting your opponent. No superstar in history suffers more from this than D-Rob. Of course his regular season output is going to be more in line with what he did against everybody else.

Comparing their box-score data is not a conclusive way of discerning who was "better." Hakeem was one of the most double-teamed players in the history of the game, and was responsible as much for getting other guys shots as he was his own. David strictly operates as a play finisher. For someone who is such a fan of Dirk, this is something that should be rather clear to you.

It's probably not super-relevant to the current discussion, but stating that Hakeem embarrassed (or whatever descriptor you prefer) David is not a myth.

1. Hakeem is a better player than David so when talking about a better player at his peak that's relevant. I wasn't attempting to be tricky.

2. The point about their teams is that at best they are a wash outside of the big men, but overall the talent and coaching edge goes to the Rockets imo. The Spurs won more than 70% of the time. You can make statements about game plan or whatever but it really shouldn't be ignored. That's a massive number.

3. I have no problem with sample sizes in the playoffs in general. I do have problems trying to claim Dream outplayed David based on only one series. That is a sample size problem for me--especially in the light of their RS over a 7x larger sample. Its taking one series and defining 2 players in a way that doesnt begin to tell the story. I could make all sorts of guys look poorly in comparison if I get to cherry pick that small of a sample.

4. Again, I recognize Dream is a better player than David and that David has poor PS performance. It's why Dream is well above David in this project and my personal rankings. Im not attempting to argue Robinson > Dream. What I am stating is that David got the better of Dream when they went H2H if we take an overall look and not just focus on one series. But 32-10 suggests that some of that impact Dream was having a la Dirk was more than being matched by Robinson, at least imo.

[Basketballefan]

Its interesting that D-Wade finished #22 in 2011 and has won 2 titles since then, yet he has received 0 support so far.

I don't get it either. I mean most of the voters were different so that got a lot to do with it.

It's possible that he will end up even lower this time. I think he should go in at 20-21 but that's just me.

[D Nice]

[spoiler]

[Spoiler]Why do people keep insisting that Dream outplayed Admiral H2H when the evidence says the contrary?

I get the post-season series went Dream's way, but that's got sample size issues. The RS is a massive edge for Admiral in efficiency and w/l and no the Spurs supporting cast wasnt the reason why considering Dream had both better teammates and a better coach.

Stop perpetuating that myth. Dream deserves to be ranked ahead of Admiral and is, but let's not just pretend what happened when they faced each other can be erased by one playoff series with Dream at his peak.

-snipped-

This is all very fair, but if it would make your case a bit stronger if you limited this to a "prime vs prime" timframe. Including post '96 Dream data makes the presentation seem a tad disingenuous, especially since even under the '91-'96 window the w/l data favors your stance.

[Warspite]

Its interesting that D-Wade finished #22 in 2011 and has won 2 titles since then, yet he has received 0 support so far.

The last list used much different criteria as well as much less quality of voters.

[D Nice]

Its interesting that D-Wade finished #22 in 2011 and has won 2 titles since then, yet he has received 0 support so far.

The last list used much different criteria as well as much less quality of voters.

There's a very reall chance he still finishes around there. They're doing a much better job of limiting the discussion to the 3-4 most legitimate candidates for each voting spot rather than getting bogged down in players that shouldn't really be considered.

Once Barkley & Moses are in (looks like D-Rob will win this spot) the vote discussion will likely transition to Ewing/Wade/Petit/Nash/Barry, with a few lesser names bandied about (perhaps Frazier, Kidd, Stockton? Hondo?).

It makes for much higher-quality reading/debate.

[D Nice]

Why do people keep insisting that Dream outplayed Admiral H2H when the evidence says the contrary?

I get the post-season series went Dream's way, but that's got sample size issues. The RS is a massive edge for Admiral in efficiency and w/l and no the Spurs supporting cast wasnt the reason why considering Dream had both better teammates and a better coach.

3. If you see PS examination as "sample issues" then this would hold true, for more or for less, of most analysis predicated on the post-season. Your regular season data isn't a very representative sample either. At least in PS games teams are playing on an equal playing field. Regular season matchups are pitting teams in different stages of their "seasonal life-span" against each other. I'm not saying to throw it out the window completely, but 1 series at least equally valuable to a 30-game RS same, if not more.

The postseason is the best gauge of both player and team quality. Just look at the 2014 Nets.

Brooklyn Nets vs. Miami Heat
Regular season: 4-0
Postseason: 1-4

I'd take it a step further and say this rings true for individual players as well.

[PaulieWal]

Its interesting that D-Wade finished #22 in 2011 and has won 2 titles since then, yet he has received 0 support so far.

I don't get it either. I mean most of the voters were different so that got a lot to do with it.

It's possible that he will end up even lower this time. I think he should go in at 20-21 but that's just me.

His rapid decline has made a lot of people forget how good he really was IMO. Also his 2014 season ultimately ended as a failure with how bad he looked in the Finals and that's despite being given 28 games off during the RS. Some act like he was always some sort of scrub now .I am hoping for a comeback season of sorts, kind of a bounce back season Kobe had in 2013.

Edit: One thing that does bother me is when people say LeBron carried him to both the titles. I agree he was bad during the 2013 playoffs though he had an okay Finals. In 2012 he was inconsistent at times but overall he was still a solid #2. He was great to close the Pacers series, inconsistent against the Celtics but he was a solid #2 guy in the OKC series.

[Warspite]

Its interesting that D-Wade finished #22 in 2011 and has won 2 titles since then, yet he has received 0 support so far.

The last list used much different criteria as well as much less quality of voters.

There's a very reall chance he still finishes around there. They're doing a much better job of limiting the discussion to the 3-4 most legitimate candidates for each voting spot rather than getting bogged down in players that shouldn't really be considered.

Once Barkley & Moses are in (looks like D-Rob will win this spot) the vote discussion will likely transition to Ewing/Wade/Petit/Nash/Barry, with a few lesser names bandied about (perhaps Frazier, Kidd, Stockton? Hondo?).

It makes for much higher-quality reading/debate.

Lets not forget that this current list includes over a decade more of time than the last one. For some voters we are including multiple decades this time around.

[Jim Naismith]

Its interesting that D-Wade finished #22 in 2011 and has won 2 titles since then, yet he has received 0 support so far.

I don't get it either. I mean most of the voters were different so that got a lot to do with it.

It's possible that he will end up even lower this time. I think he should go in at 20-21 but that's just me.

In terms of PoY shares, Wade beats Nowitzki 2.601 to 2.373.

Top-5-in-league seasons
Wade 2005 (#5)
Wade 2006 (#1)
Wade 2009 (#3)
Wade 2010 (#3)
Wade 2011 (#4)

Dirk 2006 (#2)
Dirk 2007 (#3)
Dirk 2011 (#1)
Dirk 2012 (#5)

Wade is even with Dirk on a year-by-year basis throughout their primes.

Who's better?
2005: Wade
2006: Wade
2007: Dirk
2008: Dirk
2009: Wade
2010: Wade
2011: Dirk
2012: Dirk

This is a case of people largely setting aside (or forgetting) their year-by-year micro-judgments, in favor of their macro-judgement that Dirk > Wade.

[Texas Chuck]

Uh Dirk has a pretty significant longevity advantage on Wade. Why must everything be an agenda or conspiracy. Sometimes the obvious explanation is correct.....

Not to mention Dirk has several more seasons with a strong argument for top 5 with 03 and 05 being the most obvious

[Owly]

Why do people keep insisting that Dream outplayed Admiral H2H when the evidence says the contrary?

I get the post-season series went Dream's way, but that's got sample size issues. The RS is a massive edge for Admiral in efficiency and w/l and no the Spurs supporting cast wasnt the reason why considering Dream had both better teammates and a better coach.

3. If you see PS examination as "sample issues" then this would hold true, for more or for less, of most analysis predicated on the post-season. Your regular season data isn't a very representative sample either. At least in PS games teams are playing on an equal playing field. Regular season matchups are pitting teams in different stages of their "seasonal life-span" against each other. I'm not saying to throw it out the window completely, but 1 series at least equally valuable to a 30-game RS same, if not more.

The postseason is the best gauge of both player and team quality. Just look at the 2014 Nets.

Brooklyn Nets vs. Miami Heat
Regular season: 4-0
Postseason: 1-4

Miami Heat SRS: 4.15
Brooklyn Nets SRS: -1.58

I don't think that the RS missed the mark in capturing the difference between the two teams.

As before I'm not sure how helpful head to head stuff is. But if your going to do it and you've got a choice between a larger sample versus one series, I'll take the former.

Its interesting that D-Wade finished #22 in 2011 and has won 2 titles since then, yet he has received 0 support so far.

I don't get it either. I mean most of the voters were different so that got a lot to do with it.

It's possible that he will end up even lower this time. I think he should go in at 20-21 but that's just me.

In terms of PoY shares, Wade beats Nowitzki 2.601 to 2.373.

Top-5-in-league seasons
Wade 2005 (#5)
Wade 2006 (#1)
Wade 2009 (#3)
Wade 2010 (#3)
Wade 2011 (#4)

Dirk 2006 (#2)
Dirk 2007 (#3)
Dirk 2011 (#1)
Dirk 2012 (#5)

Wade is even with Dirk on a year-by-year basis throughout their primes.

Who's better?
2005: Wade
2006: Wade
2007: Dirk
2008: Dirk
2009: Wade
2010: Wade
2011: Dirk
2012: Dirk

This is a case of people largely setting aside (or forgetting) their year-by-year micro-judgments, in favor of their macro-judgement that Dirk > Wade.

So long as
(a) all participants think PotY was absolutely pefect (including non-mutual participants)
(b) all go along with the linear weight values of PotY, including
(i) There is no value in anything beyond being the league's 5th best player (Wade '08 is almost the same as Dirk '03, and identical in the "years in the top 5" measure)

[rich316]

Yeah, I'm really not placing a lot of value on PotY shares. Maybe I would if I had been involved in that project, but people using it as a the centerpiece of their arguments isn't all that convincing, since, yknow, it was a thread on RealGM, not a representation of anything real. I consider MVP shares much more relevant, as they were at least voted on at the time by people who had supposedly watched the players play.