Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Lakers

[JellosJigglin]

his last healthy season he put up 27.3/5.6/6 on 46/32/84, he wasn't exactly dunking all over people that season either, as long as he still has his post game and isn't a total shell of himself I think he will put up at least 20 on decent percentages

hard to see this as a 15 win team, kobe would have to retire during the season for that to happen

Actually that last season was one of his best and he had quite a few highlight dunks, even game-winning, buzzer-beating dunks. It was an awesome throwback year to witness. He looked healthier than he had looked in years.

[JellosJigglin]

Also, why are these Jazz fans writing up a thread about the Lakers? I don't get it. They gave very little insight and much of it was inaccurate. That was a very poor breakdown of the team. Shameful.

[a_sensei]

Healthy Kobe = 48 wins.. Will that be good enough for the playoffs this year? we'll see.. But they for sure won't be the last seed in the West. Even if Kobe was done we'd win 25-27 like last year.

2006-07 Lakers called and question your logic. You know, the team that had peak Kobe healthy all season and won 42 games. A healthy Kobe, given his age and supporting cast, may get 35 wins in the west. I'm thinking 25-30.

[lakersin4]

Healthy Kobe = 48 wins.. Will that be good enough for the playoffs this year? we'll see.. But they for sure won't be the last seed in the West. Even if Kobe was done we'd win 25-27 like last year.

2006-07 Lakers called and question your logic. You know, the team that had peak Kobe healthy all season and won 42 games. A healthy Kobe, given his age and supporting cast, may get 35 wins in the west. I'm thinking 25-30.

Outside of LO that team was horrible.. That's the team Smush-Luke-Kwame started on. This team has Lin, Young, Boozer, Hill.. Big difference.

[Louie_Ruckuz]

lol The Lakers will win more than 15 games and they will be in the hunt for the 8th seed as long as Kobe is around.

[C.lupus]

Also, why are these Jazz fans writing up a thread about the Lakers? I don't get it. They gave very little insight and much of it was inaccurate. That was a very poor breakdown of the team. Shameful.

I'll go ahead and answer this because I'm bored at work and this is better than what I'm suppose to be doing...

1. Jazzfan1971 is obviously a Jazz fan but Floppymoose is a Warriors fan.

2. They are doing all 30 teams, not just the Lakers (see the other thread on this page)

3. This is the second year that Jazzfan has done this.

4. He explains himself here: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1341521

5. It's a discussion board and this is something to discuss. We could all stand to lighten up a bit over these things.

[sonictecture]

Personally I'd be pleasantly surprised if we lose 67 games and retain our draft pick but a lot has to go wrong and may be even worse than last season when we lost Kobe for all but 6 games, Nash for all but 13 and at one point had no starting point guard on the roster, yet ended up winning 27 games.

Other than the entire team contracting the Ebola virus I don't know how things can get worse than that.

Conversely a lot has to go right for the Lakers to be competitive. You mention above there is an incentive, in keeping their draft pick, for the Lakers to be bad if they are not competitive. In an NBA season it seems to take less for things to go wrong than for things to magically go right.

Perhaps the worst case scenario for the Lakers isn't winning only 15 games but wining around 27 again, losing their draft pick to Phoenix, being bad but not bad enough.

I never said they'd be competitive but I think there's a better chance of them winning 40 than losing 67. Ofcourse winning 27 would not be ideal unless we borrow whatever magic doll Gilbert has been sticking needles in for the last 4 years.

I can't help but think it's that middle, if you will irrelevant middle, that is potentially the most dangerous for the Lakers.

Would the Lakers attempt an in-season tank if they find themselves in the undesirable middle?

[spaceballer]

Conversely a lot has to go right for the Lakers to be competitive. You mention above there is an incentive, in keeping their draft pick, for the Lakers to be bad if they are not competitive. In an NBA season it seems to take less for things to go wrong than for things to magically go right.

Perhaps the worst case scenario for the Lakers isn't winning only 15 games but wining around 27 again, losing their draft pick to Phoenix, being bad but not bad enough.

I never said they'd be competitive but I think there's a better chance of them winning 40 than losing 67. Ofcourse winning 27 would not be ideal unless we borrow whatever magic doll Gilbert has been sticking needles in for the last 4 years.

I can't help but think it's that middle, if you will irrelevant middle, that is potentially the most dangerous for the Lakers.

Would the Lakers attempt an in-season tank if they find themselves in the undesirable middle?

I don't think Kobe's pride would allow him to do an in-season tank even if they find themselves in the undesirable middle.

[sonictecture]

I never said they'd be competitive but I think there's a better chance of them winning 40 than losing 67. Ofcourse winning 27 would not be ideal unless we borrow whatever magic doll Gilbert has been sticking needles in for the last 4 years.

I can't help but think it's that middle, if you will irrelevant middle, that is potentially the most dangerous for the Lakers.

Would the Lakers attempt an in-season tank if they find themselves in the undesirable middle?

I don't think Kobe's pride would allow him to do an in-season tank even if they find themselves in the undesirable middle.

Let's assume Kobe is healthy enough to play 76 games next season. With pride of his legacy on the line, what do we see from him?

It is fairly easy for me to envision a situation where a fed up Kobe either makes the situation worse by calling everyone else out or simply shuts himself down for the season. It is a subplot I'm interested in keeping track of and would like nothing better than to see Kobe lead a scrappy squad to exceed expectations.

[spaceballer]

I can't help but think it's that middle, if you will irrelevant middle, that is potentially the most dangerous for the Lakers.

Would the Lakers attempt an in-season tank if they find themselves in the undesirable middle?

I don't think Kobe's pride would allow him to do an in-season tank even if they find themselves in the undesirable middle.

Let's assume Kobe is healthy enough to play 76 games next season. With pride of his legacy on the line, what do we see from him?

It is fairly easy for me to envision a situation where a fed up Kobe either makes the situation worse by calling everyone else out or simply shuts himself down for the season. It is a subplot I'm interested in keeping track of and would like nothing better than to see Kobe lead a scrappy squad to exceed expectations.

It might indeed make it worse and cause them to fall in the rankings, but I would still argue that it wouldn't be a conscious tank attempt as posited. Players just don't work that way, they don't go into games trying to tank.

The tanking (or "rebuilding" if you want to be politically correct) happens at a higher level, and usually involves trading away vets and filling the ranks with inexperienced rookies and letting them play. Like the Sixers. That way, not only do you get a good pick, but you also add experience to your young guys to polish them up for the day the tank is over.

So no, even if they are in the undesirable middle, I don't think they would make a conscious tank attempt. All they would end up doing with such a tack would be giving a better draft pick to the Suns. I doubt they can switch directions in the middle of the season and manage to get a bottom 2 record (the only way to 100% guarantee they keep their pick). To get a bottom 2 record probably requires planning from the beginning of the season (see Sixers).

[Slava]

Conversely a lot has to go right for the Lakers to be competitive. You mention above there is an incentive, in keeping their draft pick, for the Lakers to be bad if they are not competitive. In an NBA season it seems to take less for things to go wrong than for things to magically go right.

Perhaps the worst case scenario for the Lakers isn't winning only 15 games but wining around 27 again, losing their draft pick to Phoenix, being bad but not bad enough.

I never said they'd be competitive but I think there's a better chance of them winning 40 than losing 67. Ofcourse winning 27 would not be ideal unless we borrow whatever magic doll Gilbert has been sticking needles in for the last 4 years.

I can't help but think it's that middle, if you will irrelevant middle, that is potentially the most dangerous for the Lakers.

Would the Lakers attempt an in-season tank if they find themselves in the undesirable middle?

Lakers' financial side can't afford a tank not even one as bad as last season. This is not Philly or Detroit where they sell tickets for $15 in the middle of the season. They need to justify the product to be able to ask $3000 for court-side seats.

[Effigy]

Wow, 15 wins? Floppymoose must really think the Lakers are going to feel the departure of David Stern. No way the Lakers would win 15 games on his watch.

[sonictecture]

I don't think Kobe's pride would allow him to do an in-season tank even if they find themselves in the undesirable middle.

Let's assume Kobe is healthy enough to play 76 games next season. With pride of his legacy on the line, what do we see from him?

It is fairly easy for me to envision a situation where a fed up Kobe either makes the situation worse by calling everyone else out or simply shuts himself down for the season. It is a subplot I'm interested in keeping track of and would like nothing better than to see Kobe lead a scrappy squad to exceed expectations.

It might indeed make it worse and cause them to fall in the rankings, but I would still argue that it wouldn't be a conscious tank attempt as posited. Players just don't work that way, they don't go into games trying to tank.

The tanking (or "rebuilding" if you want to be politically correct) happens at a higher level, and usually involves trading away vets and filling the ranks with inexperienced rookies and letting them play. Like the Sixers. That way, not only do you get a good pick, but you also add experience to your young guys to polish them up for the day the tank is over.

So no, even if they are in the undesirable middle, I don't think they would make a conscious tank attempt. All they would end up doing with such a tack would be giving a better draft pick to the Suns. I doubt they can switch directions in the middle of the season and manage to get a bottom 2 record (the only way to 100% guarantee they keep their pick). To get a bottom 2 record probably requires planning from the beginning of the season (see Sixers).

Good points and I am talking about management, not the players. Does the threat of Kobe being unhappy still motivate management?

[JohnsHopkins]

This floppymoose must be on some good bay area kush. You really think that the twolves and jazz will have a better record than the lakers? Those teams are trying to tank. Im not sure if you assume lakers will get 15 wins with a healthy roster or you are assuming they will have major injuries.

I am a doctor doing a residency in radiology at HOAG hospital in newport beach, ca. Come by so i can do an CT and MRI on your head. Free of charge (not really).

[sonictecture]

I never said they'd be competitive but I think there's a better chance of them winning 40 than losing 67. Ofcourse winning 27 would not be ideal unless we borrow whatever magic doll Gilbert has been sticking needles in for the last 4 years.

I can't help but think it's that middle, if you will irrelevant middle, that is potentially the most dangerous for the Lakers.

Would the Lakers attempt an in-season tank if they find themselves in the undesirable middle?

Lakers' financial side can't afford a tank not even one as bad as last season. This is not Philly or Detroit where they sell tickets for $15 in the middle of the season. They need to justify the product to be able to ask $3000 for court-side seats.

Good points, but at what point do those expensive seats stop selling and the Laker games stop being a place to be seen? The tickets for next season are already sold, it seems to me Lakers management could strategically tank next season without a huge backlash.

[floppymoose]

I will likely tweak the win totals.... I don't much believe 15 wins either. But I do predict last in the west.

Just out of curiosity, are you using some kind of mathematical algorithm for these w-l predictions?

Not what I would call an algorithm, but an approach. The rough idea is that I take the projected rapm values and projected number of possessions for every player in the league that I think will get at least a certain minimum number of possessions, and use that to calculate a team scoring differential, and then use that to get an overall win loss. There are numerous complications along the way. I use a replacement player value for teams who are going to be forced into playing rookies or unknowns. I have to adjust the possession count from last year because players change teams, come back from injury (Kobe), get older, grow into larger roles, etc, etc. I also hand adjust some of the rapm values if the player appears to be an outlier (Beverly probably not really a top 10 player in the league). And I also try to account for the conference splits and uneven schedules.

I'm not finished combing all the data and there are some win totals I don't believe, like 15 for the Lakers. But I do think they will likely be last in the west.

[C.lupus]

This floppymoose must be on some good bay area kush. You really think that the twolves and jazz will have a better record than the lakers? Those teams are trying to tank. Im not sure if you assume lakers will get 15 wins with a healthy roster or you are assuming they will have major injuries.

I am a doctor doing a residency in radiology at HOAG hospital in newport beach, ca. Come by so i can do an CT and MRI on your head. Free of charge (not really).

This can be a discussion for the Wolves preview thread but for now, the Wolves are not trying to tank.

[bran muffin]

There are only 2 ways an NBA team could finish the season with 15 wins:

They have given up and are not even trying anymore, or

They are purposely tanking

I don't see either of those two things happening while Kobe Bryant is on the roster. Any NBA team will win more than 15 out of 82 games, as long as there's some reasonable effort involved. Lack of talent doesn't hold a team back until they start winning 25 to 30 games.

But getting 15+ wins? That only takes effort. With Kobe, Nash, and Lin on the roster, I don't think effort will be an issue.

[C.lupus]

I will likely tweak the win totals.... I don't much believe 15 wins either. But I do predict last in the west.

Just out of curiosity, are you using some kind of mathematical algorithm for these w-l predictions?

Not what I would call an algorithm, but an approach. The rough idea is that I take the projected rapm values and projected number of possessions for every player in the league that I think will get at least a certain minimum number of possessions, and use that to calculate a team scoring differential, and then use that to get an overall win loss. There are numerous complications along the way. I use a replacement player value for teams who are going to be forced into playing rookies or unknowns. I have to adjust the possession count from last year because players change teams, come back from injury (Kobe), get older, grow into larger roles, etc, etc. I also hand adjust some of the rapm values if the player appears to be an outlier (Beverly probably not really a top 10 player in the league). And I also try to account for the conference splits and uneven schedules.

I'm not finished combing all the data and there are some win totals I don't believe, like 15 for the Lakers. But I do think they will likely be last in the west.

Seems like a reasonable approach.

[digitaldropoff]

I don't think Kobe has much left in the tank, and out West...a Boozer/Lin tagteam doesn't do ****. I feel like the Jazz, Lakers, and Kings if DMC gets hurt....will be the worst of the West this season.
Terrible depth at PG
Kobes knees are on the outs
SF spot is hot garbage
Stiffs at the five spot

Randle will be a player, and Boozer can still get some numbers....but after Kobe and the PF spot, this team is rough...and that's being kind.