Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Lakers

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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#101 » by snaquille oatmeal » Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:45 am

beerbrewer wrote:
snaquille oatmeal wrote:
sonictecture wrote:Good points, but at what point do those expensive seats stop selling and the Laker games stop being a place to be seen? The tickets for next season are already sold, it seems to me Lakers management could strategically tank next season without a huge backlash.


the one thing you haven't consider is the Lakers culture. The Lakers don't tank on purpose. they are not Philly or the Twolfs. when they are bad is due to injuries or a bad team core, but even with a bad team core they still competed and not tank.

I realize that at realgm's GB the only way to rebuild is from the bottom up, but the Lakers have done it from the middle before. and with all these short term contracts that they have being in the "undesirable middle" is not so undesirable from the GO point of view.

Culture don't mean squat when your team is mismanaged parts and an over the hill, coming off 2 major injury superstar. Just saying.

what exactly are you saying?
I am talking about the Lakers culture being against tanking and you are talking about the team being mismanaged and over the hill and injuries. that is two different things. stay on subject.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#102 » by suntzuballin » Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:51 am

15 wins....wow! lakers fanbase onslaught..there undersized at the 5,hill and davis are pf ?? wes johnson and henry are sg guards??
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#103 » by snaquille oatmeal » Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:56 am

beerbrewer wrote:
snaquille oatmeal wrote:
beerbrewer wrote:Culture don't mean squat when your team is mismanaged parts and an over the hill, coming off 2 major injury superstar. Just saying.

what exactly are you saying?
I am talking about the Lakers culture being against tanking and you are talking about the team being mismanaged and over the hill and injuries. that is two different things. stay on subject.

I'm a grown man, don't act like you can just tell me what to do lol. Your comment insinuated that the Lakers are too proud to tank. Well newsflash hombre. You are either a 10th seed or....a 10th seed. I love it when Laker fan pride gets smashed in their ugly faces. 'We got rings' lol. Yeah, glad that makes you feel better about life. Currently, you're team is waiting to get on the treadmill. Deal with that.


as a grown man how come you can't tell when somebody asks you to clarify your point versus telling you what to do?

you clearly got off the subject in your post and by simply pointing out mismanaging, injuries and old age you didn't make a point. so I ask you again, what does your point have to do with the Lakers culture of not tanking?
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#104 » by steamed hams » Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:33 am

I think they win 27-30 games.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#105 » by semi-sentient » Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:49 am

suntzuballin wrote:15 wins....wow! lakers fanbase onslaught..there undersized at the 5,hill and davis are pf ?? wes johnson and henry are sg guards??


Johnson will start at SF and Henry will be his backup.

Hill is slightly undersized, but he's most effective at the 5. He's one of the best offensive rebounders in the league (queue Kobe assist joke) and gets most of his points off hustle plays. Defensively, he's without question a better paint protector than Gasol so all things considered he's not a bad option. The only real worry about Hill is whether he can handle heavy minutes without completely falling apart given that he's not exactly known for his durability.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#106 » by rockmanslim » Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:15 am

floppymoose wrote:
C.lupus wrote:
floppymoose wrote:I will likely tweak the win totals.... I don't much believe 15 wins either. But I do predict last in the west.

Just out of curiosity, are you using some kind of mathematical algorithm for these w-l predictions?


Not what I would call an algorithm, but an approach. The rough idea is that I take the projected rapm values and projected number of possessions for every player in the league that I think will get at least a certain minimum number of possessions, and use that to calculate a team scoring differential, and then use that to get an overall win loss. There are numerous complications along the way. I use a replacement player value for teams who are going to be forced into playing rookies or unknowns. I have to adjust the possession count from last year because players change teams, come back from injury (Kobe), get older, grow into larger roles, etc, etc. I also hand adjust some of the rapm values if the player appears to be an outlier (Beverly probably not really a top 10 player in the league). And I also try to account for the conference splits and uneven schedules.

I'm not finished combing all the data and there are some win totals I don't believe, like 15 for the Lakers. But I do think they will likely be last in the west.


can you use the same approach to predict (err...retrodict?) each team's win-loss for the 2013-14 season, then compare what you "predict" to their actual 2013-14 records? would be interesting to see the results of such a test.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#107 » by AussieCeltic » Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:18 am

C.lupus wrote:
JellosJigglin wrote:Also, why are these Jazz fans writing up a thread about the Lakers? I don't get it. They gave very little insight and much of it was inaccurate. That was a very poor breakdown of the team. Shameful.

I'll go ahead and answer this because I'm bored at work and this is better than what I'm suppose to be doing...

1. Jazzfan1971 is obviously a Jazz fan but Floppymoose is a Warriors fan.

2. They are doing all 30 teams, not just the Lakers (see the other thread on this page)

3. This is the second year that Jazzfan has done this.

4. He explains himself here: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1341521

5. It's a discussion board and this is something to discuss. We could all stand to lighten up a bit over these things.


If he wasn't a moderator, I'm sure these threads would have been condensed into either one thread or deleted ESPECIALLY given the low level of analysis. I've read through both threads and they've achieved nothing except piss both Sixers and Lakers fan bases off.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#108 » by Volcano » Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:34 am

Lakers lose their two best players in Gasol/Meeks, but they gain one slightly positive player in Lin, who's value won't be realized if the ball runs through Kobe.

With Kobe being old and coming off injury, I have a hard time seeing him carrying the Laker's on offense and he has bad defense.

Lakers gain a negative in Boozer. Nash is pretty much done, any offensive value would be killed by Kobe, and his defense would be awful. Randle is a rookie and will be abused on D. Ed Davis was never a good defender. They have zero defensive big men basically. I think I saw Boozer and Hill ranked among the worse players in the league in RAPM or something like that.

They're gonna have the worst defense in the league. They would have to outgun their opponents, but don't have the personnel to do it. It's hard for any team to go under 20 wins though..even if they tried.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#109 » by semi-sentient » Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:43 am

Last year they were the 3rd worst defensive team in the league, and the absolute worst defensive rebounding team in the league.

Lin is already a huge defensive upgrade over Marshall and Nash (and I mean huge). He's not elite, but even being average gives the Lakers a big boost. It helps their interior defense, and it definitely helps their transition defense.

Kobe will be no worse than Meeks who has always been a horrendous defender.

Next, Boozer had the 2nd best DRB% among power forwards last season, and Hill is no worse than Noah. Lin and Kobe (at this stage) are no worse than average rebounders at their position, with Wes probably being slightly below average.

In terms of interior defense, Hill is MUCH better at protecting the rim and helping out than Gasol, and despite Boozer not being a great defender he's certainly no worse than Ryan Kelly (or an undersized Johnson). Hill also does a much better job than Gasol in terms of getting back on defense.

D'Antoni is gone, and despite the Cavs poor defense the past few seasons I feel that Scott has a bit more to work with, especially since the Lakers should have a more efficient offense than the Cavs which should help limit transition opportunities.

All things considered it's pretty hard not to see them improving defensively, especially if Kobe can manage to play even average defense.

PS: Lakers still have their best player, unless we're calling Gasol better than Kobe now. Boozer isn't really much of a downgrade considering he's more suited to play the 4 than Gasol. Meeks sucks. He put up decent stats on a garbage team and nothing more. While he tries defensively he still stinks (he's an atrocious rebounder and has terrible instincts) and he can't dribble/create to save his own life. Lin is a much better player than Meeks, so losing him isn't a big deal.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#110 » by floppymoose » Wed Aug 20, 2014 4:19 am

rockmanslim wrote:can you use the same approach to predict (err...retrodict?) each team's win-loss for the 2013-14 season, then compare what you "predict" to their actual 2013-14 records? would be interesting to see the results of such a test.


That is a good idea. Not sure when or if I will get the time for that, but I do want to do it. It's worth noting that even if everything were perfect, I am really predicting the pythagorean win/loss record. So even a 'perfect' prediction would have gotten 56 wins for GSW last year instead of 51, and 40 for CHA instead of 43, etc.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#111 » by JellosJigglin » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:03 am

C.lupus wrote:
JellosJigglin wrote:Also, why are these Jazz fans writing up a thread about the Lakers? I don't get it. They gave very little insight and much of it was inaccurate. That was a very poor breakdown of the team. Shameful.

I'll go ahead and answer this because I'm bored at work and this is better than what I'm suppose to be doing...

1. Jazzfan1971 is obviously a Jazz fan but Floppymoose is a Warriors fan.

2. They are doing all 30 teams, not just the Lakers (see the other thread on this page)

3. This is the second year that Jazzfan has done this.

4. He explains himself here: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1341521

5. It's a discussion board and this is something to discuss. We could all stand to lighten up a bit over these things.


Well, the fact that the thread was started by a mod changes the tone. But if it were an ordinary poster that came on the GB and started a thread about the Lakers, predicted 15 wins with the type of analysis one can overhear while sitting at a dive bar in any city outside of L.A., it'd either get locked or shipped over to the Laker forum. It's not the 15 win prediction that bothers me, I think everyone here knows how ridiculous that sounds. It's the lack of a thorough roster breakdown to support that prediction.

I don't think I can "lighten up" anymore than I already am. I was just stating my opinion. Next time, perhaps we can each have one representative from each team forum provide an actual analysis of the roster. I think it'd be more informative and educational for fans who don't follow the teams. How would Jazz fans feel if I wrote up a vague report on their team and posted it on the GB? Like I said in my last post, I don't get it. What's the point of that? I'd rather read something from a Jazz fan that watches them 82 games a year. Just an idea...
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#112 » by frozt » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:26 am

15 wins...
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#113 » by EArl » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:43 am

JellosJigglin wrote:
C.lupus wrote:
JellosJigglin wrote:Also, why are these Jazz fans writing up a thread about the Lakers? I don't get it. They gave very little insight and much of it was inaccurate. That was a very poor breakdown of the team. Shameful.

I'll go ahead and answer this because I'm bored at work and this is better than what I'm suppose to be doing...

1. Jazzfan1971 is obviously a Jazz fan but Floppymoose is a Warriors fan.

2. They are doing all 30 teams, not just the Lakers (see the other thread on this page)

3. This is the second year that Jazzfan has done this.

4. He explains himself here: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1341521

5. It's a discussion board and this is something to discuss. We could all stand to lighten up a bit over these things.


Well, the fact that the thread was started by a mod changes the tone. But if it were an ordinary poster that came on the GB and started a thread about the Lakers, predicted 15 wins with the type of analysis one can overhear while sitting at a dive bar in any city outside of L.A., it'd either get locked or shipped over to the Laker forum. It's not the 15 win prediction that bothers me, I think everyone here knows how ridiculous that sounds. It's the lack of a thorough roster breakdown to support that prediction.

I don't think I can "lighten up" anymore than I already am. I was just stating my opinion. Next time, perhaps we can each have one representative from each team forum provide an actual analysis of the roster. I think it'd be more informative and educational for fans who don't follow the teams. How would Jazz fans feel if I wrote up a vague report on their team and posted it on the GB? Like I said in my last post, I don't get it. What's the point of that? I'd rather read something from a Jazz fan that watches them 82 games a year. Just an idea...

I actually think this would be a great idea for the future. We have a board for every team. We can easily divide the work so that each team writes an analysis for their respective teams. The mods can do a write down and use posters from their board to write it up. They would then submit it to floppy and jazz and then it can be posted on here. I know that no one will ever agree with everything, but this is a better way to go about it. Im down to even help the both of you in this.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#114 » by jazzfan1971 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:35 am

Nothing says you can't post your own preseason analysis. For as far as that goes, I asked every board to do just about that. You can just go read those posts if you want some info on what the hometown fans think.

I'd love to see someone elses predictions. Especially those that take the time to estimate wins and losses for each team in a way that sums them up to the total number of possible wins and losses. Otherwise you end up with Every team winning 45 games on average.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#115 » by EArl » Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:48 am

jazzfan1971 wrote:Nothing says you can't post your own preseason analysis. For as far as that goes, I asked every board to do just about that. You can just go read those posts if you want some info on what the hometown fans think.

I'd love to see someone elses predictions. Especially those that take the time to estimate wins and losses for each team in a way that sums them up to the total number of possible wins and losses. Otherwise you end up with Every team winning 45 games on average.

I disagree in that we can post our own pre season analysis. Most likely it will either get locked or moved to the team forum. You guys being mods does have its privileges. Also I don't think you took our hometown information into account. I speak for the Lakers board of course because I haven't seen other boards opinions. I think the majority of our board disagrees with this analysis and I don't think homerism can account for it. Please don't take this as me undermining what you guys did. I appreciate the work that you guys put into this.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#116 » by floppymoose » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:09 am

I don't think disagreeing with the prediction counts as homerism. I can see folks thinking that the Lakers might finish ahead of a couple of teams in the west. I really wouldn't be too surprised if they did. It's tough to predict things like how much, if any, will Kobe decline this season, and how many minutes will he play.

I do think those predicting playoffs for the Lakers have their homer goggles on, though. That's not going to happen. It's not going to be close to happening.

And as for posting predictions for the win/loss records across the league, I think it's a great idea to have a contest thread on that. I did a playoff predictions thread earlier this year.

Thread here: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1316560
Results here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... k9CN2VwSUE
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#117 » by AussieBuck » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:15 am

Lots of toys being thrown out of the cot over whether the Lakers finish 20 games out of the playoffs or 35. Odd.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#118 » by RollingWave » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:42 am

semi-sentient wrote:Last year they were the 3rd worst defensive team in the league, and the absolute worst defensive rebounding team in the league.

Lin is already a huge defensive upgrade over Marshall and Nash (and I mean huge). He's not elite, but even being average gives the Lakers a big boost. It helps their interior defense, and it definitely helps their transition defense.

Kobe will be no worse than Meeks who has always been a horrendous defender.

Next, Boozer had the 2nd best DRB% among power forwards last season, and Hill is no worse than Noah. Lin and Kobe (at this stage) are no worse than average rebounders at their position, with Wes probably being slightly below average.

In terms of interior defense, Hill is MUCH better at protecting the rim and helping out than Gasol, and despite Boozer not being a great defender he's certainly no worse than Ryan Kelly (or an undersized Johnson). Hill also does a much better job than Gasol in terms of getting back on defense.

D'Antoni is gone, and despite the Cavs poor defense the past few seasons I feel that Scott has a bit more to work with, especially since the Lakers should have a more efficient offense than the Cavs which should help limit transition opportunities.

All things considered it's pretty hard not to see them improving defensively, especially if Kobe can manage to play even average defense.

PS: Lakers still have their best player, unless we're calling Gasol better than Kobe now. Boozer isn't really much of a downgrade considering he's more suited to play the 4 than Gasol. Meeks sucks. He put up decent stats on a garbage team and nothing more. While he tries defensively he still stinks (he's an atrocious rebounder and has terrible instincts) and he can't dribble/create to save his own life. Lin is a much better player than Meeks, so losing him isn't a big deal.


That's the optimistic way of looking at it, however the team last year though horrible generally had a clear effective offensive system (relative to their talent level anyway.) , the fear is that Scott who's never been much of an offensive coach tries to force a offensive system that doesn't make sense for the personnel involved.

He's mentioned a lot about the Princeton offense, which the Laker's current personnel is in way / shape or form capable of running evenly modestly effectively, if they still had Pau then maybe that could work, but they don't.

As many observer have mused, the current Laker roster might actually make more sense with MDA still being the coach. I really have NO idea how the Laker's offense will look this year, they have better offensive players on paper, but the fit is really weird, especially if they actually insist on playing Carlos Boozer.

I'd actually think they might have more success if they run some bizzaro lineup like Lin / Kobe / Kelly / Davis / Hill (or swap with Randle.) , like if they go with that lineup a lot I can see them maybe get close to 40 win, Davis has actually had tremendous PnR roll numbers last year, so him with Lin would be really scary, couple that with Kelly and Randle's ability to play well in space, this should work out reasonably well, and you can save Kobe more as a safety valve option so he won't have to go all out for 40 min .

Defensively it's a lost cause anyway, might as well play the most effective offensive lineup, even if it means you literally have no one to match up against small forwards, who cares, Wes Johnson aint stopping those small forwards either, just run like 48 min zone and make the other team beat you from 3.

There's so many moving parts to this team right now, Scott would probably have the best chance of success this year by keeping things as simple as possible. instead of trying a complicated offense set that has never worked without a 4 + high iq good passing / dribbling players on the floor
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#119 » by Dr Aki » Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:25 am

floppymoose wrote:
Guy986 wrote:15 is really really low. I'll bet 100 dollar on over with the OP.

You should read the thread. I've already said 15 is just a placeholder. No one here is arguing 15 wins.


might want to remove that placeholder then, it's obviously derailed the thread to the point that it's roundly lambasted by everyone, even celtics fans and suns fans

tweak that algorithm and come back
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Laker 

Post#120 » by AussieBuck » Wed Aug 20, 2014 11:16 am

Does it really matter whether it says 15 wins or 22? It's a terrible team regardless.
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