How long to determine if a player is bust?

[coolcono]

Bennett is a bust after one season....

[SOUL]

Realgm: A month

Myself, I say after 2 years you can tell if they have a skill that will translate after that. Plenty of players have had not many opportunities or just didn't put it together the first couple of years and came out really good players.

[Infinite Llamas]

I think that a player needs to play at least 3 years and needs to play for a couple of teams before he can be labeled a bust. Reason being that maybe it doesn't work out with the first team, so he may get a better shot on a different team (see Darko). I think it's very safe to call Thabeet a bust by this point, but the jury is still out on Derrick Williams. If Williams has another poor year, then I think that it doesn't look good.

It's hard to call Bennett a bust seeing how poor the draft looked based on one year. Bennett will have a fresh start with a new team, and if he continues to struggle, then, the "bust" talk might gain a little traction. It's just hard to call a guy bust with such a middling draft class.

[JDR720]

It depends on the player and what you consider a bust, some players start out well but end up bad ( OJ Mayo) and some players struggle and end up good (Joe Johnson)

[Threethrows]

End of the rookie contract is really when it's fair to say. People jump the gun too quickly. Some guys take a few seasons. Some take even longer but at that point it's obviously understandable to change your mind and side with hindsight.

What determines it is where they were picked, who was picked after them (or in some cases before if the team could have picked earlier) and how well they are performing relative to the expectations of what the player's ceiling was thought of.

[Jonatton Yeah]

Gonna go all Hot Take here and say that playing in the NBA is really, really hard. Like, really hard. Success, more often than not, is tied more to system and surroundings than talent at the NBA level because at the NBA level everybody is immensely talented. I guess what I'm saying is that I hold out hope for pretty much anyone not named Michael Olowokandi so I keep the bust card in my pocket most of the time.

Bust also seems to imply that the player screwed up or something. Well it's not like he had a friggin' choice where he was picked. I guess I don't see the point in blasting Marvin Williams for being a bust when it was Atlanta who picked him ahead of Chris Paul. I'm quicker to call out GMs and decision-makers.

I also believe "bust" should only be used for those picked high. When I hear stuff like, "Royce White bust!" I'm like, what. He was a mid-round pick. Expectations should always be tempered for those guys. Hell, if a mid- to late-first round pick is on your team in 4 years you should be very, very happy (and lucky).

[Jakay]

You know, with the types of talent we're seeing these days, and the varied skills and complexity of the modern game, you gotta wait until at least halfway through their first summer league game before you really bring the hammer down.

[crazy_me_87]

for realgm its about 1-5 games^^

for me ,...

i would say 2 full seasons

if a player doesnt break out by his 3rd year its unlikley he ever will break out at all

so yeah i usually give players 2 years and then see how they are doing in the 3rd year

[Ignitowsky]

It's sometimes impossible to ever really know that about some players because of unrealistic expectations when they get drafted. In other words, a team screws up and drafts a guy way too early and they are forever expected to live up to the average person drafted at that draft position. Bargnani may be the best example of that idea. Had he been a non lotto pick or drafted in the second round by Toronto rather than the first everyone would be saying that at least until his recent injury issues he was having a solid pro career. The reality for him is though that he was drafted number one overall and the expectations for him have been too high and probably always will be.

[pylb]

His first Summer League game.

If you've got a good feeling for those things, you can even declare him a bust before that, when he declares for the draft.

[Devilzsidewalk]

It's sometimes impossible to ever really know that about some players because of unrealistic expectations when they get drafted. In other words, a team screws up and drafts a guy way too early and they are forever expected to live up to the average person drafted at that draft position. Bargnani may be the best example of that idea. Had he been a non lotto pick or drafted in the second round by Toronto rather than the first everyone would be saying that at least until his recent injury issues he was having a solid pro career. The reality for him is though that he was drafted number one overall and the expectations for him have been too high and probably always will be.

that's a point that's been made, but it's so legit and I don't know if it gets enough respect - remember Maciej Lampe? Dude's getting top 10, top 5 hype, and he falls to the 2nd round like he should. But if a team takes him in the lotto, now we're talking about him being a bust, but since he wasn't taken early, nobody is calling him out for being a bust. Gms, the teams, the Chad Fords...everybody part of that hype train needs to share in that bust label.

[Blame Rasho]

Until it is time for a team to pick up an option in his rookie contract or if he has been traded more than twice before the end of his rookie contract.

[Dr Aki]

until their value as an expiring exceeds their value as a player or potential player

[Imon]

until their value as an expiring exceeds their value as a player or potential player

Basically you're saying Steve Nash is a bust?

[jwise44]

Realgm is so funny (I'm guilty of it, too)

Some players are a bust after 15 games (bennett)

Some players aren't busts even after several years and multiple teams (I swear there are still people that think Anthony Randolph is poised to break out)

[three2theD]

depends really on if the player is showing flashes of potential or not. In Anthony Bennett for example, because he has shown virtually nothing his first year, he get's a grace period of about another half year before I label him a bust personally.

[Dr Aki]

until their value as an expiring exceeds their value as a player or potential player

Basically you're saying Steve Nash is a bust?

i dont know how the answer is remotely no

[Steven1562]

i say 2 years but some guys are just late bloomers who needed the right team or system to really blossom think Steve Nash or Chauncey Billups also Gary Payton

[DoubleLintendre]

Somewhere between 3-4 years. Some players develop really slow, and some players have hot starts then don't pan out. 3-4 years is long enough to both prove if you belong. If you're a real thing it should be apparent in that time frame.

2 years is too short in my opinion. There are players who come into the league very raw and need time to develop, especially bigs. On many teams (for example playoff teams) rookies/sophomores may not be getting very many minutes or even be a steady part of a team's rotation. How can you judge a player when they aren't even getting minutes?

Also, young player development can be stilted or completed ruined by playing under coaches/in systems that work against a certain player's playstyle/abilities/confidence. Many coaches don't give real playing time to really young and/or raw rookies. Not all players come into the league NBA ready.

Steven1562 gave some good examples. In a time were we expect instant results for everything, I think its really important to be patient when it comes to developing new talent.

[Nikos Beard]

Anthony Bennett is not a bust, and I really believe he will be one of the better players of his age group this upcoming season.

Summer League shouldn't be the ultimate judgement on a player, but it does give you a good indication of a player's strengths, flaws, tendencies, athletic ability, and can at the very least hint at what that player's potential is.

And to anyone who watched Bennett in Summer League, it's pretty clear that this kid still has a ton of untapped potential. His injury before the season, severe lack of conditioning, overwhelming pressure that kept building throughout the season, and so on killed his rookie year. But he looks like a completely different player this year - he's still a tank frame-wise but he is quicker, more explosive, just as strong, and mentally he seems more motivated and confident...in short, he looks like a top 5 pick from his draft.

Anyways, I would say 2-3 seasons should be a good indication, maybe 4 if the player is very raw. If they show nothing but "flashes of potential" for 3 consecutive seasons, they may never get it together. At least not as an elite prospect, which I consider the only prospects that are capable of being busts. They could put together solid to good seasons later in their careers like Gerald Green did last year, but they may never get it together as a star player.