Owly wrote:I think that may be the sunny side of analysing the Knicks performance. The counter-argument might say just two serious contenders (5.87 SRS in '93, 6.48 in '94, no other teams above 4 and playoff performances from Ewing in the following two years that pretty much precluded them from being serious contenders even if you were optimistic about the performance of those teams).
I suppose that's one perspective to be had, but I don't count it a negative against Ewing that his teams didn't do a ton more, 1994 excepted. I think he did pretty well with what he had. I'm not typically a huge pro-Ewing guy because he is most frequently being compared to guys I hold a lot better than him, but stand-alone, I generally appreciate that he did very well without the same kind of offensive support that many others have enjoyed en route to a title.
I'll do so briefly. I don't mind people saying van Gundy (or any coach) wasn't optimising the O so long as we give them credit for where they were strong (so not overcrediting Ewing for D).
Big respect to JVG for defense; I thought the same thing of him when he coached Houston: good D, weak O.
That said, New York's DRTG was roughly the same relative to league average even before JVG got there.
To whit, they were at -4.0 or better from the 91-92 season when Riley got there through the 00-01 season. -8.3 and -8.1 in 93 and 94. -4.1 in the 96 season, with JVG coaching only 23 games and Don Nelson coaching the rest. Don't know how much JVG should get credited for that, as a result. Obviously, coaching was very important because the Knicks weren't anything like that before Riley's arrival, so he gets kudos for maintaining the system, and then adapting to Ewing's decline of course. And keeping the team focused on defense, as well.
The point wasn't that Johnson's efficiency got worse with Ewing, it was that a substantial drop in usage saw minimal affect on his efficiency, with Johnson resuming a larger role we'd expect the efficiency to drop somewhat, though if incompatability with Ewing was the only issue in this drop over this period we would expect him to be at roughly pre-NY level, that he isn't suggests playing Ewing isn't the only thing that hurt him, but it doesn't say that it hasn't done so.
His efficiency would only necessarily return to the same level if he was capable of doing the same things while removing a lot of the less-efficient shots he used to reach that volume in the first place, though, no? LJ wasn't able to move the same way, wasn't able to dominate quite the same way. I don't know, I can't make a firm comment here because I don't remember him THAT much, particularly in the late 90s. But you'd expect that he'd see some element of change based on Ewing's presence or absence if Ewing himself was a significant factor, and that doesn't appear to be the case.
I don't recognise your characterisation of Houston's NY years. After the initital significant fall (a rare double fall in usage and efficiency) upon arrival in NY, his TS% stays nearly identical to the previous year (.001 down) despite a massive boost in usage (22.2% to 26.7%) without Ewing (advanced metrics help corroborate increased producivity). Then Ewing returns and again both ts% and usage fall. Only '00 doesn't really fit in that Ewing is playing essentially playing the same amount (very slight reduction from 53.7190083% of available minutes to 0.513111447). This though hardly disproves that Ewing has impeded Houston's offensive performance.
Houston's USG%, TS%
95: 23.5%, 58.9%
96: 25.4%, 57.6%
97: 22.2%, 53.1% (goes to the Knicks, Ewing plays 78 G)
98: 26.7%, 53.0% (line pulled back out, Ewing plays 28 G)
99: 24.3%, 51.5% (lockout year, 50 GP, Ewing plays 38 G)
00: 24.0%, 56.9% (Ewing plays 62 G)
I don't follow. Houston fell off of a cliff efficiency-wise in 97 with Ewing, sure, but then he got a little worse (basically the same) the year after with Ewing playing less than 30 games. Then he got even worse, but Ewing still played less than half of the season, and then with 62 games played from Ewing in 00, Houston's efficiency returned to form. I don't see the correlation with Ewing's presence very strongly at all.
[quote[it this corroborates suggestions that he might have been a difficult player to build around offensively. [/quote]
Hmm, we may actually be saying the same thing. I don't ultimately debate the idea that Ewing wasn't a great piece to use as a focal offensive weapon. That said, the Knicks were safely a 106+ ORTG team back to Rick Pitino's days in the late 80s every year. Sometimes even higher. They declined some with league average declining in general, and then went 104, 103 and 98 under Van Gundy. That's a marked departure from the offensive efficacy of the team in years past, even featuring Ewing more prominently, so I don't necessarily agree that it's sensible to use the teams where Ewing was in his late 30s as a legitimate way to evaluate his utility as an offensive piece.
Keep in mind, from 86-96, the Knicks hovered around -2.5 under league average ORTG, with a brief spurt in Pitino's last season and in the Don Nelson season. Then in 97 under JVG, they were at +0.4... and then in the two following years with Ewing missing tons of games, they were back down to -2.1 and -2.0.
That kind of flips the idea that his presence correlates with suppression of offense, although it does occur at the same time as high-usage Houston was sucking a lot while Ewing wasn't playing.
I think there's definitely a threshold where older Ewing didn't need to be getting so many shots, but after 97 (which was his last all-star season), he took 15.5, 14.9 and 12.5 FGA/g in his injured seasons and played around 33 mpg. It's not like he was the focus of the offense anymore. So again, I don't see this as a major point against Ewing because it's really fuzzy in terms of the connection between these events, and the relevance to team offense. The late 90s were the beginning of the steep decline in offensive efficacy we saw league-wide, particularly with declining pace, so looking at raw ORTG for the team doesn't do a ton, especially since their differential against league average looked to favor Ewing's presence.
As to teammates getting less efficient, there is essentially an unknown. Houston's decline continued sharply even in Ewing's absence, so there isn't anything but the most tenuous of connections there, especially since his resurgence coincided with the most games Ewing had played since 97 anyway. LJ, couldn't tell you, but he was aging, shooting more and less healthy, so I'm not ultra surprised. He dropped off each year until he retired, with Ewing playing and shooting less and less each successive season, so that's also not an awesome correlation. He also played more than 70 games in 97, and then never again, with his back getting progressively worse.
I suspect strongly that there are multiple reasons for these efficiency drops, and since they happened whether or not Ewing was playing lots of games or minutes, I can't really see the idea that it's clearly related to him. And again, we're talking about a guy in his late 30s, so I don't see the relevance of using that as a way to describe anything about building around him, which is generally done in a player's prime. Pitino put together a team with a 111.1 ORTG around Ewing taking about 16 FGA/g and scoring 22.7 ppg, which looks a lot like the way Riley used him in the mid-90s. Even Stu Jackson was able to produce a 109.4 offense in Ewing's first big-volume season, so it seems more that things were generally OK with Ewing when he was younger.
Maybe if you want to say that the team held onto Ewing as a volume option a little long? He was never the same after the 95 season, his efficiency dropping off and not really recovering aside from one of his injured seasons and he started to turn the ball over quite a bit more. I guess you could say the same thing of his time with Riley; after 92, Ewing wasn't really all that hot an option as a volume scorer, though his usage remained the same through the remainder of the 90s, basically.
(Charles Smith, Xavier McDaniel).
Charles' Smith's efficiency was essentially identical in his first season with the Knicks as it had been the year before with the Clippers (54.2% TS versus 54.3%). It didn't decline until he played half a season in 1998 due to injury. Then it immediately bounced back to 54.4% in 99. It fell off after that, but he played a 73 game season and a 19 game season before retiring, so I don't count that as ultra-meaningful.
Xavier McDaniel played one year with the Knicks, and he had a down year. He shot worse from the line, he got to the line less and he shot worse from the field. He was, of course, an inefficient player to begin with even before arriving in New York, so him going from one below-average efficiency to a worse one for a year isn't entirely strange.
Childs' efficiency went down because in his second season, he posted a career-high FTR, which dropped off the year after, and then he also decreased his 3pt volume.
96: 41.6% FG, 36.7% 3P, 3.3 3PA/g
97: 41.4% FG, 38.7%, 2.8 3PA/g
Not a staggering impact on his actual ability to make shots. The FTR recovered a little in 98, then dropped off again. Also keep in mind that he HIT the league at 27 and was 29 by the time he started playing for the Knicks, so his physical tools were in decline by that point as well. He also set a career-high in 2FG% in 1998, his second year with the Knicks.
And again, we can return to sub-optimal deployment under JVG's offensive scheme as a further point.
One might look at his inability to mesh with Cartwright and Anthony Mason's flourishing as a playmaker outside New York (though Mase didn't increase scoring volume much and lost some shooting efficiency) as further concerns.
Can't imagine Cartwright being a legitimate concern; both were centers, not sure what else could be expected. Cartwright was a weaker passer (as was Ewing) and wasn't a brilliant shooter, had limited mobility... it's hard to mesh with him unless you dramatically cut his usage. He was injured for all but 2 games in Ewing's rookie season, played only 58 games the year after, and then he was a 30 year-old, 20 mpg roleplayer thereafter. There isn't anything else to be said about him, no? He went to Chicago as a similar low-usage roleplayer, so it's not like he flourished after leaving Ewing's side, he actually shot a lot worse once he got to Chicago.
Mason... actually had his two best seasons ITO FG% for the Knicks in 95 and 96. He shot MORE when he left the Knicks, but I don't know if that's really important. Flourishing as a playmaker happened, sure, he was an experimental point forward, but keep in mind that this started in 96 under Don Nelson in noticeable fashion, but even before with Riley.
He generally hit his peak as a player from about 95-97 as he hit 30 and we saw some of it in New York and some of it in Charlotte. I wouldn't go so far as to say he didn't mesh too well with Ewing on the court, though. He was 6MOY in 95 for New York, too.
I'm not hugely against Ewing here just raising concerns because he hasn't been in the discussion for long.
And it's good fun digging back into those Knicks teams anyway.
The most prominent (and recurring) criticisms are that he bought on too many of his mans fakes (a member of the parachute or paratrooper club) and that he fouled too much (though it is suggested he often got away with it due to star status)
He fouled a lot in the 90s because that was literally Riley's mandate. The whole team did. "No layups," remember? And because he was a shot blocker, in part. That said, from 91-97, he averaged 3.4 PF/g. Before that, 3.9 PF/g.
Olajuwon averaged 4.0 PF/g from 85-92 and then 3.5 from 93-97.
It wasn't really out of sorts for such a player to foul a lot.
Wow, this post went on longer than intended.
I know what you mean...
