Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Offseason Preview - Kings

[jazzfan1971]

Also for the record, I can't see Evans starting for more than a handful of games. (ok, maybe 4 handfuls, but, not more than that.)

[floppymoose]

ast year I made predictions, what I did was look at the prior year and start from there and then make adjustments based on how I perceived the team added or subtracted talent. And I was pretty unsuccessful using that method. Floppy is doing these predictions and he's using a different method. I don't really know how well his method is going to work, but, I'm willing to give it a try based on how unsuccessful my method was.

I challenge you to predict the record of all 30 teams and see if you can beat Floppy's method on the whole. It would be fun and interesting to see.

I think my approach might be pretty decent (we'll see) at predicting standings. I'm not terribly confident in it's ability to predict win totals. I had to add an adjustment to it, because un-adjusted it skewed the bad teams towards even fewer wins (and the good teams towards too many). I think the problem my adjustment is trying to solve is that a lot of games have some minutes played where the game is decided, and both teams may put in lesser players. These players would normally drive down the scoring differential for their team, but because they are playing against similar players, it's break even. (ie, garbage time.) This has the effect of reducing scoring differential across the league.

I don't have a great way to adjust for this effect, so I'm winging it as best I could. But I may have undershot the mark. In which case, bad teams will be better, and good teams will be worse, than the totals I predict. But the ordering won't change.

The real question to ask is will the Kings be 14th in the west. If they are then I've done what I set out to do.

[RIPskaterdude]

No, they will not finish 14th in the West. I think they will end up 10th to 12th, imo.

[MountainDrew]

Wait, so the sixers should have held on to Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner to show them they're "their guys", but the Kings have to trade one of the best young big men in the game for youth and picks? I see how it is.

[Wolfay]

I don't know where the 22 wins prediction comes from. Kings teams of the past with far less talent than we have now managed more than 22 wins. In fact, the Kings have exceeded that win percentage in all but one season since they moved to Sacramento in 1985.

I'm not surprised that floppy thinks we should trade Cousins. Classic coming from a Warriors homer.

[floppymoose]

I am a warriors fan, but I have no idea what makes you think I'm a warriors homer.

[SacKingZZZ]

Also for the record, I can't see Evans starting for more than a handful of games. (ok, maybe 4 handfuls, but, not more than that.)

The dynamic and needs for this team may have changed with the departure of Thomas but last year Evans looked like the absolute best fit next to Cousins when he started.

[aIvin adams]

maybe the kings can trade Cousins to a team with vets trying to win now, and get some youth/hustle/defense in exchange.

DMC to the Nets for Mason Plumlee?

[Winsome Gerbil]

maybe the kings can trade Cousins to a team with vets trying to win now, and get some youth/hustle/defense in exchange.

DMC to the Nets for Mason Plumlee?

that's ridiculous.










Mason Plumlee is much more ready to win now.

[sac89837]

[
Over the last 5 years the Kings have won 28, 28, 22, 24 & 25 games. Perhaps it's not so odd that someone would predict them to win within that range with this years team as well. It seems to me the Kings are very much in a position to show us they are better before they are given the benefit of the doubt.

Year +/- Record Expected Record
12-13: -400 28-54 28-54
13-14: -238 28-54 33-49

We actually did improve between this year and last, we just had trouble closing out games.

Probably had something to do with this:
Name eFG% FGA/48 Passing Rating
I. Thomas 51.0% 15.2 9.1
I. Thomas 46.2% 25.0 2.7 (Clutch Play less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points)

Thomas was great against bench players, but he was a defensive sieve and shot us out of a bunch of games at the end. Oh and and at 5'7" he couldn't make an entry pass.

As for Power Forward, I would be suprised to see Moreland starting by the end of the year, but for the start I would probably pencil in JT again unless we make another trade.

[suntzuballin]

ya i dont get why thomas is such a big deal .... in the article was mentioned bout cousins being traded..what if kings trade ben mclemore( if nik stauskas,works out )for pf they want.

[beerbrewer]

Trae Cousins? You musta bumped your head lol. Cousins on court persona has gotten leaps and bounds better than it was when he came in. Which is to be expected when people mature. Cousins is a franchise cornerstone. You build around players like that. You don't trade them and hope and pray for the best.

[floppymoose]

If that's true then you can get a lot for him now in a trade. And if he never figures out how to win, that will look like a smart move down the road.

[RIPskaterdude]

Trading Cousins is alot like trading Curry two seasons ago. Might as well get full value for him before other teams start to see how bad his ankles are, right?

[floppymoose]

You think his ankles are bad?

[bleeds_purple]

Floppymusings:
I'm going to come out and say it: The Kings should trade Cousins for picks/youth and move on. Cousins is a huge talent and can be totally unstoppable when he chooses to be. He chooses to be about twice a year. That isn't going to change. The number of other teams that haven't figured this out is shrinking. Kings should move on while there is still a buyer.

I'd love to know what this is based off? This just screams of someone who doesn't actually watch the games but plays armchair GM on the side based on their uninformed bias and mainstream opinion. I try not to be overly harsh when I post here but there's no mincing words, this is just plain ignorant and demonstrative of a complete and utter lack of personal knowledge of the situation.

Moreover, why would we trade Cousins for youth? He is youth. He's locked up long-term. It just doesn't make any sense regardless of what lens you view this under.

Our single hope of ever achieving anything is if Cousins continues to develop and taps into his almost limitless potential. To throw that away and "move on" would be the absolute worst move. Especially when he's locked up long-term and has voiced a desire to play in Sacramento.

[AussieCeltic]

These predictions are quickly becoming an embarrassment to read.

[ibraheim718]

The Kings were 19-21 when Thomas, Gay, and Cousins played. Thomas doesn't come back, but they replace him with Collison and the rest of the young players will probably improve...yet, over the course of 82 games, they only win 3 more games? I don't see how that makes sense, unless you think Thomas was a HUGE piece of their success.

I agree with you.. if anything Collison's ability to run and push the ball better than Thomas can makes their starting line up actually a little more balanced because I see his back court running mate Mclemore as a guy who would thrive in an uptempo system. If you look at the roster a lot of those guys are actually guys that are pretty good at getting up and down for the positions they play.

[RIPskaterdude]

You think his ankles are bad?

most of the league thought he was injury prone 2 years ago, but now they wouldn't hesitate to give him a max deal. See where I'm going here?

[KF10]

Quick! We need to trade Cousins for youth & picks before his value starts to drop!1!



















oh wait.