RealGM Top 100 List #23

Post #1 » by **penbeast0** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 10:19 pm

CENTERS
George Mikan who is the only player left that was the undisputed best player in basketball for a reasonably long stretch of time (5 years +). But, his era was the last vestige of white only, no shot-clock basketball, and he started to decline by age 25 which is really early; rule changes that other players could deal with seem to have been a bigger problem for him. Artis Gilmore is the next great two-way center here with the lack of progress by Dwight Howard since the last list (over Alonzo Mourning and Mel Daniels who were very similar players); probably Dikembe Mutombo the best defensive specialist.

FORWARDS
Baylor, McHale, Pippen, Havlicek, Rodman, and even Kevin Durant. Interested to see who starts getting support. Baylor seemed to have efficiency issues even for his day (which started after Pettit's so less excusable), McHale is super efficient but worked against single teams in the post more than any great post scorer in history and was a mediocre defensive rebounder (though the presence of Larry Bird that gave him so many single teams also stole some rebounds from him). Pippen does everything well, but has some issues with clutch situations and mental fragility. Havlicek seems to have nerves (and lungs) of steel but was even more inefficient through the mid 70s than Baylor. Rodman is the GOAT rebounder, but also a disruptive force and barely above the Ben Wallace level offensively, and Durant's career is just starting. A lot of talent, a lot of questions.

GUARDS
Wade or Frazier. Wade is the most explosive scorer and plays excellent defense, Frazier didn't score as much but was an even better defender and playmaker, and even more known for stepping up and dominating 2 NBA finals. This one is very close; I lean Frazier over Wade but willing to be convinced. I see Clyde as a step up over Nash and Stockton for his ability to take over games with both his scoring and defense, over Payton, Kidd, or Isiah for his scoring efficiency and superior all around game. Both Wade and Frazier do suffer a little from short or injury riddled primes though here also, Frazier was the guy you could count on through his prime where Wade was often hurt. I hadn't put Chris Paul on this list but he should probably be considered as well, though he hasn't as yet shown me the ability to elevate his team that I've seen in Frazier and Wade despite his prettier stats than either.

With the questions about Mikan and the forwards, I am leaning to either Dwyane Wade or Walt Frazier. Based on his finals heroics, the way his teams in NY (of all places) ran like well oiled machines with almost no ego problems, superior durability, and the fact that as a fan, I feared facing him more than I did Wade, I will cast a tentative vote for:

WALT FRAZIER

colts18 · Post #2 » by **colts18** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 10:22 pm

Vote: Steve Nash again

Spoiler:

Basketballefan · Post #3 » by **Basketballefan** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 10:47 pm

Vote Dwyane Wade

3 time champion
FMVP
10 time all star
2 time all First team
scoring title etc

8th all time in PER
23rd in playoff PER

All time great title run & Finals, 28 6 6 59 TS%, 35 7 4 57 TS% in the finals
5 finals appearances altogether dominating 2 of them

All time great peak 2009: 30 5 8 57 TS%

Known for tearing up elite defenses in playoff series in his prime

27 6 6 68 TS% against Detroit pistons 06 ECF
33 6 7 65 TS% against Boston Celtics 2010 first round
30 7 5 62 TS% against Celtics 2011 ecsf
ETC

Time for Wade to get his due
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUGJCy6zcoM[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTZ4zYgOAvM[/youtube]

DQuinn1575 · Post #4 » by **DQuinn1575** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:07 pm

penbeast0 wrote:CENTERS
George Mikan who is the only player left that was the undisputed best player in basketball for a reasonably long stretch of time (5 years +). But, his era was the last vestige of white only, no shot-clock basketball, and he started to decline by age 25 which is really early; rule changes that other players could deal with seem to have been a bigger problem for him b]

They doubled the width of the lane
Mikan then led his team to a 3 peat and didn't whine about rule change.

Seems like he did okay

He dominated the best black players of his time

Best player on 4 nba champs plus baa and nbl -

He's actually penalized by the selection rules

Pre nba leagues don't count - he dominated leagues that would merge into nba

His games against the black globetrotters and any other teams he faced don't count.

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magicmerl · Post #5 » by **magicmerl** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:19 pm

I think that Frazier, Baylor and Havlicek are the candidates at about this point. Althoguh Havlicek's 81.2 pp100 and 24.6 RP100 look impressive (due to a bug in BBR per100 stats), ultimately he's just less impressive than Baylor for me.

One knock on Baylor: he doesn't show up in BBR's shortlist of player surnames beginning with B.

Here's their career RS per100 stats:

Code: Select all

Player. REB  AST PTS  TS%  OWS  DWS  WS    WS/48
Baylor. 13.7 4.4 27.6 .494 63.6 40.5 104.2 .148
Frazier  6.9 7.2 22.4 .542 69.1 44.5 113.5 .176

So Baylor is naturally a better rebounder, but a long way below the level of players we've considered at previous positions. Frazier is considerably more efficient, as well as being a better passer. He also has the edges in both offensive and defensive win shares, as well as a better WS/48 (although again, a clear level below the superstars already voted in).

I'm not sure. I think this could go either way.

Post #6 » by **Texas Chuck** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 pm

colts18 wrote:Team impact:

2004 Suns- 29 wins, 101.4 O rating, 21st (No nash)
2005 Suns- 62 wins, 114.5 O rating, 1st (with Nash)

Thats a huge transformation with just Nash being the main piece added.

I thought I'd help Colts18 by filling in some information he left out.

For instance the 05 Suns had a full training camp and pre-season to learn the MDA system which is quite valuable considering how different it was from Frank Johnson. But we also get Amare 3 years removed from high school and minutes going from guys like Jacobson, Voskuhl, Jadadi White, Eisley to guys like Q-Rich and Jim Jackson, plus over 800 more minutes from Amare. Obviously Nash is the engine, but let's not completely ignore these other factors.

1998 Mavs, 20 wins, 100.5 O rating, 27th(No Nash)
1999 Mavs, 19 wins(but out of 50), 102.3 O rating, 15th(with Nash)

Just like the Suns its not as simple as just Nash, but we do see the team improve considerably from a w/l perspective and the offense moves from one of the worst in the league to a middle of the pack team.

2004 Mavs, 52 wins, 112.1 O rating, 1st(with Nash)
2005 Mavs, 58 wins, 110.3 O ratingm 4th(No Nash)

So the Mavs do get marginally worse offensively as a result of losing Nash as we would expect, but the team suffers very little and actually performs considerably better as a team. Of course like with the Suns other significant changes were made, but this sheds some light that maybe Dirk and Finley should be getting significant credit for some of those great Nash Mavs offenses.

Basketballefan · Post #7 » by **Basketballefan** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:45 pm

magicmerl wrote:I think that Frazier, Baylor and Havlicek are the candidates at about this point. Althoguh Havlicek's 81.2 pp100 and 24.6 RP100 look impressive (due to a bug in BBR per100 stats), ultimately he's just less impressive than Baylor for me.

One knock on Baylor: he doesn't show up in BBR's shortlist of player surnames beginning with B.

Here's their career RS per100 stats:
Code: Select all
Player. REB AST PTS TS% OWS DWS WS WS/48 Baylor. 13.7 4.4 27.6 .494 63.6 40.5 104.2 .148 Frazier 6.9 7.2 22.4 .542 69.1 44.5 113.5 .176

So Baylor is naturally a better rebounder, but a long way below the level of players we've considered at previous positions. Frazier is considerably more efficient, as well as being a better passer. He also has the edges in both offensive and defensive win shares, as well as a better WS/48 (although again, a clear level below the superstars already voted in).

I'm not sure. I think this could go either way.

The dismissal of wade is unjustifiable. If you dont think he deserves the spot fine but to say hes not even worthy of mention is ridiculous. Wade is getting criminally underrated in this project.

ceiling raiser · Post #8 » by **ceiling raiser** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:47 pm

I have absolutely no clue who to go with here. Considering Stockton and Frazier, as well as a few others.

Post #9 » by **Texas Chuck** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:54 pm

Basketballefan wrote:The dismissal of wade is unjustifiable. If you dont think he deserves the spot fine but to say hes not even worthy of mention is ridiculous. Wade is getting criminally underrated in this project.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uKEcHxnzu0[/youtube]

ronnymac2 · Post #10 » by **ronnymac2** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:59 pm

Dwyane Wade, Steve Nash, Walt Frazier, and Rick Barry are the major players on my radar. I can see the argument for a host of others though.

Dwyane Wade is probably who I'm leaning towards. Not going to vote yet.

ceiling raiser · Post #11 » by **ceiling raiser** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 12:00 am

Basketballefan wrote:The dismissal of wade is unjustifiable. If you dont think he deserves the spot fine but to say hes not even worthy of mention is ridiculous. Wade is getting criminally underrated in this project.

Wade is very difficult to evaluate. He was a monster in his prime (probably my favorite player to watch after Shaq started to decline), but longevity is a real concern here. I used to have him above a few guys who already have been selected, but I don't know if that's reasonable anymore.

Let me ask you this...how many quality seasons are we crediting him with here?

04 - rookie season
05 - solid year, got hurt in the playoffs after looking amazing
06 - great year
07 - looked great before going down (not a big box score stats guy, but he was at 28.8/4.8/7.9 on 58.9 TS% pre-injury)
08 - injuries
09 - great year
10 - great year
11 - great year
12 - solid year
13 - solid year, hurt in playoffs
14 - injuries, had nothing left in the Finals

It's a tough call IMO.

Post #12 » by **Clyde Frazier** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 12:24 am

No clue who I'm voting for yet, so I think I'll take the time to do some research on Baylor. Still don't have a great feel for where he should rank.

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Basketballefan · Post #13 » by **Basketballefan** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 12:39 am

fpliii wrote:
Basketballefan wrote:The dismissal of wade is unjustifiable. If you dont think he deserves the spot fine but to say hes not even worthy of mention is ridiculous. Wade is getting criminally underrated in this project.

Wade is very difficult to evaluate. He was a monster in his prime (probably my favorite player to watch after Shaq started to decline), but longevity is a real concern here. I used to have him above a few guys who already have been selected, but I don't know if that's reasonable anymore.

Let me ask you this...how many quality seasons are we crediting him with here?

04 - rookie season
05 - solid year, got hurt in the playoffs after looking amazing
06 - great year
07 - looked great before going down (not a big box score stats guy, but he was at 28.8/4.8/7.9 on 58.9 TS% pre-injury)
08 - injuries
09 - great year
10 - great year
11 - great year
12 - solid year
13 - solid year, hurt in playoffs
14 - injuries, had nothing left in the Finals

It's a tough call IMO.

Wade was a top 10 player from 05-2012. That's 8 quality seasons, yes he was inured in 07 08 but i think he was still good enough to be top 10. Arguably the league's best player in 06, 09, 2011(mind you i'm not saying he for sure was but there was no clear cut best players those years which is rare), clear top 2 player in 09 & 10. I'm not convinced Frazier was on Wade's level, the numbers indicate that Wade was handily a better player and i don't see the longevity to compensate. I think the Frazier over Wade is based on nostalgia more than anything else. Frazier doesn't have a season anywhere near 09 Wade, i hear how his defense makes him better but I'm skeptical of this, Wade was very good at defense and took over games with his defense and offense just like Frazier.

Like i said the revisionist history is already happening to Wade, he went 22nd in the last project, so since then he's made 3 all star games, won 2 championships and went to 3 finals and it somehow brings him down on the list? It doesn't make any sense at all. The disrespect for Wade needs to stop.

Basketballefan · Post #14 » by **Basketballefan** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 12:44 am

Chuck Texas wrote:
Basketballefan wrote:The dismissal of wade is unjustifiable. If you dont think he deserves the spot fine but to say hes not even worthy of mention is ridiculous. Wade is getting criminally underrated in this project.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uKEcHxnzu0[/youtube]

Great post. This taught me a lot.

magicmerl · Post #15 » by **magicmerl** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 12:57 am

Basketballefan wrote:The dismissal of wade is unjustifiable. If you dont think he deserves the spot fine but to say hes not even worthy of mention is ridiculous. Wade is getting criminally underrated in this project.

If you want Wade to be compared to other players, WHY DON'T YOU MAKE A POST COMPARING HIM TO THEM? I personally don't put much (or any) stock in 'lobbying' posts that exist solely to lobby on behalf of a particular candidate. I only read the ones that are discussing relative merits or fleshing out other details (like additional context around the Mikan era in the previous thread).

To me Wade has always seemed like an injury prone player who got lucky by catching lightning in a bottle and the tail end of Shaq's prime to win a ring. And he was a very good 2nd fiddle for his latter two rings, but he was clearly the 2nd or 3rd best player on those championship runs. I actually think that bosh was more uniquely indispenable to the Heat than Wade was. I think he'll be in the same level as Pippen and Walton, but neither of them are being discussed at this slot either.

Post #16 » by **Quotatious** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 1:02 am

Basketballefan wrote:Like i said the revisionist history is already happening to Wade, he went 22nd in the last project, so since then he's made 3 all star games, won 2 championships and went to 3 finals and it somehow brings him down on the list? It doesn't make any sense at all. The disrespect for Wade needs to stop.

TBH, I don't get your line of thought, because this time, there are a lot of new voters who look at that differently, have different criteria for ranking players, so Wade adding to his resume doesn't have to mean that he should go up in the rankings. Some people don't really even consider his post-2011 seasons as worthwhile when you compare him to guys who had more seasons on their prime level (and post-2011 Wade was certainly NOT prime Wade).

I really don't see anything disrespectful about it - let everyone have their own criteria.

That being said, if Robinson is in since #18, I think Wade should be in pretty soon, too. Both guys were dominant in their primes, had very high peaks, but their longevity is somewhat lacking.

Nash is likely going to be my vote here, but like fpliii, I'll also keep my options open, won't cast an early vote, but if Barkley's in since #20, I see no reason why Nash shouldn't already be in as well, as I see these two as almost a wash.

ceiling raiser · Post #17 » by **ceiling raiser** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 1:12 am

Basketballefan wrote:Wade was a top 10 player from 05-2012. That's 8 quality seasons, yes he was inured in 07 08 but i think he was still good enough to be top 10. Arguably the league's best player in 06, 09, 2011(mind you i'm not saying he for sure was but there was no clear cut best players those years which is rare), clear top 2 player in 09 & 10. I'm not convinced Frazier was on Wade's level, the numbers indicate that Wade was handily a better player and i don't see the longevity to compensate. I think the Frazier over Wade is based on nostalgia more than anything else. Frazier doesn't have a season anywhere near 09 Wade, i hear how his defense makes him better but I'm skeptical of this, Wade was very good at defense and took over games with his defense and offense just like Frazier.

Like i said the revisionist history is already happening to Wade, he went 22nd in the last project, so since then he's made 3 all star games, won 2 championships and went to 3 finals and it somehow brings him down on the list? It doesn't make any sense at all. The disrespect for Wade needs to stop.

That's the thing though, the injuries are problematic. Can we reasonably credit him for those seasons? 05 probably, because the rib injury isn't a knock on his health. I think the shoulder injury in 07 derailed his season a bit, but it's still a quality year (though we can't project him as arguably the best player since he went down. He had the surgery on his left knee after the year, but I think that definitely prevents 08 from being considered IMO. So I'm willing to concede 7 quality seasons.

I didn't see Frazier live, so it's not nostalgia per se. I do think there is an issue since we don't know how well he'd play defensively today. Hand-checking has been curtailed three times (78-79, 94-95, 04-05) since his prime, so if that was a big part of how he played defense, he loses a good deal of value. Frazier gives you what appear to be 8 quality seasons (68-69 through 76-77, except for 75-76, derailed by a back injury), which is comparable. Wade was a very good defender, and the superior offensive anchor, so if we think Frazier wouldn't be the same offensive player today, I'd agree that Wade has a great case.

As for this being revisionist history, you have to consider a couple of things:

1) The voting pool isn't exactly the same. I for one didn't participate in 2011, and I'm not the only such poster. A bunch of participants from the last project aren't participating this time. Different voters value different things, so even if a guy has done nothing differently, it's entirely possible he might jump/fall compared to the last project.

2) I can't speak for anyone else, but I don't consider accolades when evaluating players, so the all-star games don't mean much to me. I do think 2012 was a quality season, probably the last one of his prime (he could've played at his 2011 level that year if LeBron wasn't on the team IMO), but the last couple of years he's had severe injury problems. Even with strategic resting, he hasn't been able to play at a high level by his standards by the time the Finals have rolled around.

So I will admit that if I consider Frazier I should be considering Wade here. But I don't think either guy is a lock here. It's wide open, but I do think Stockton has a case at this spot.

Basketballefan · Post #18 » by **Basketballefan** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 1:12 am

magicmerl wrote:
Basketballefan wrote:The dismissal of wade is unjustifiable. If you dont think he deserves the spot fine but to say hes not even worthy of mention is ridiculous. Wade is getting criminally underrated in this project.

If you want Wade to be compared to other players, WHY DON'T YOU MAKE A POST COMPARING HIM TO THEM? I personally don't put much (or any) stock in 'lobbying' posts that exist solely to lobby on behalf of a particular candidate. I only read the ones that are discussing relative merits or fleshing out other details (like additional context around the Mikan era in the previous thread).

To me Wade has always seemed like an injury prone player who got lucky by catching lightning in a bottle and the tail end of Shaq's prime to win a ring. And he was a very good 2nd fiddle for his latter two rings, but he was clearly the 2nd or 3rd best player on those championship runs. I actually think that bosh was more uniquely indispenable to the Heat than Wade was. I think he'll be in the same level as Pippen and Walton, but neither of them are being discussed at this slot either.

Wow.

What evidence suggests Bosh was arguably better or more important than Wade in the their title runs? Bosh missed half of the 2012 playoffs while Wade picked up his slack and took over the Indiana series. Wade clearly did more in that run and it's not one bit debatable. In 2013 they both were bad, but Wade was the best player in game 4 of the finals and had 23 10 in game 7 while Bosh went scoreless! Yeah he was so more valuable than Wade,why don't you get your facts before making uninformed statements?

06 was not Prime Shaq. Don't dismiss the fact that Wade decimated the Pistons' defense for 27 6 6 68 TS% and then we know what he did in the finals. So yes, let's act like Shaq carried Wade to a ring.

Lets see Frazier vs Wade peaks:

72 Frazier, 23 7 6 .576 TS% 22 PER
09 Wade 30 5 8 .574 TS% 30 PER while Wade was a top 5 defender in the league that season imo.

So unless you can explain how Walt somehow has enough longevity to make up for the large gap in peaks then i won't be convinced.

magicmerl · Post #19 » by **magicmerl** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 1:15 am

Basketballefan wrote:Wow.

What evidence suggests Bosh was arguably better or more important than Wade in the their title runs? Bosh missed half of the 2012 playoffs while Wade picked up his slack and took over the Indiana series. Wade clearly did more in that run and it's not one bit debatable. In 2013 they both were bad, but Wade was the best player in game 4 of the finals and had 23 10 in game 7 while Bosh went scoreless! Yeah he was so more valuable than Wade,why don't you get your facts before making uninformed statements?

06 was not Prime Shaq. Don't dismiss the fact that Wade decimated the Pistons' defense for 27 6 6 68 TS% and then we know what he did in the finals. So yes, let's act like Shaq carried Wade to a ring.

Lets see Frazier vs Wade peaks:

72 Frazier, 23 7 6 .576 TS% 22 PER
09 Wade 30 5 8 .574 TS% 30 PER while Wade was a top 5 defender in the league that season imo.

So unless you can explain how Walt somehow has enough longevity to make up for the large gap in peaks then i won't be convinced.

Thankyou, you have helped me make up my mind regarding how I will be voting regarding Wade.

Post #20 » by **PaulieWal** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 1:17 am

I think Wade is a serious candidate for this spot IMO. He had one of the best peaks ever for a wing and his peak was slightly better than KD IMO and very comparable (even better?) to the likes of LeBron and Kobe.

Here's a post I am stealing from our good friend SideshowBob:

Spoiler:

Four Factors

Spoiler:

Dwyane Wade

Spoiler:

----------------------------------

Miami was able to run a +7.5 offense with Wade playing out of his mind like that.

[/Spoiler]