Chuck Texas wrote:its a fair point, penbeast, but its clear to me the Celtics had a specific way they wanted to play in the 60's and Hondo was a big part of that. I think whether they would have expressed as such at the time or not, Red and the boys understood they were sacrificing some efficiency in order to play the game they wanted to play--a game they dominated the league playing.
Just like when I look at Stockton, I don't penalize him for not playing like Nash, like some guys here do. Nor do I hold it against Wade that his role had to change upon the arrival of Lebron. The bottom line for me will always be that its a team game and I judge a player on how he benefited his team or not even if doing so hurts his individual statistics.
edit: and that's an interesting point about Chet Walker. I'll be honest that I don't have an answer to that. Perhaps he was just a bad matchup for Hondo for some reason? We've seen other good defenders who for some reason just really struggle against certain guys. Or it could be that some of Hondo's defensive reputation is undeserved. Would love more insight from anyone who has some on that note.
Hondo's reputation is an athletic pippen style defender ( likely not to the same caliber ) in his younger days
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Basketballefan wrote:The dismissal of wade is unjustifiable. If you dont think he deserves the spot fine but to say hes not even worthy of mention is ridiculous. Wade is getting criminally underrated in this project.
Wade is very difficult to evaluate. He was a monster in his prime (probably my favorite player to watch after Shaq started to decline), but longevity is a real concern here. I used to have him above a few guys who already have been selected, but I don't know if that's reasonable anymore.
Let me ask you this...how many quality seasons are we crediting him with here?
04 - rookie season 05 - solid year, got hurt in the playoffs after looking amazing 06 - great year 07 - looked great before going down (not a big box score stats guy, but he was at 28.8/4.8/7.9 on 58.9 TS% pre-injury) 08 - injuries 09 - great year 10 - great year 11 - great year 12 - solid year 13 - solid year, hurt in playoffs 14 - injuries, had nothing left in the Finals
It's a tough call IMO.
Wade was a top 10 player from 05-2012. That's 8 quality seasons, yes he was inured in 07 08 but i think he was still good enough to be top 10. Arguably the league's best player in 06, 09, 2011(mind you i'm not saying he for sure was but there was no clear cut best players those years which is rare), clear top 2 player in 09 & 10. I'm not convinced Frazier was on Wade's level, the numbers indicate that Wade was handily a better player and i don't see the longevity to compensate. I think the Frazier over Wade is based on nostalgia more than anything else. Frazier doesn't have a season anywhere near 09 Wade, i hear how his defense makes him better but I'm skeptical of this, Wade was very good at defense and took over games with his defense and offense just like Frazier.
Like i said the revisionist history is already happening to Wade, he went 22nd in the last project, so since then he's made 3 all star games, won 2 championships and went to 3 finals and it somehow brings him down on the list? It doesn't make any sense at all. The disrespect for Wade needs to stop.
It's no disrespect at all, it's actually very reasonable...
Accomplishments won't bump you up when you're the 2nd fiddle next to LeBron, while being injured a huge chunk of the regular season, and heavily falling off in the post-season..
The problem with Wade right now is his "prime longevity", the amount of quality seasons is beginning to drop, and he probably won't have another one, ever again...
In 2013 and 2014 he dropped to mediocrity in the playoffs, and it might be NOW that the real decline starts.
So at this point, comparing careers, his actually looks really similar to Clydre Drexler right now... Spots 25-30, still a good ranking, and reasonable IMO.
I also wouldn't have too much of a problem if he comes in about these next few spots, but he's definitely not getting underrated.
Edit: You also would need to add context to his regular season stats of 2014... Wade was coasting and riding LeBron... Imagine Wade is the 1st guy somewhere, how would he perform having to play all games? Wade basically took off as many nights as possible, then chipped in with an efficient 20, sat out a game, chipped in 20, etc... His defense has also fallen off. I'd say since about 2013?
I’m mostly likely leaning Stockton again for this spot, though I could possibly support Wade, as well. I’d hear arguments for Baylor, Pippen, or Havlicek, too; Nash and Kidd, too, for that matter.
I’ve been curious (even eager?) to read something amazing about Walt Frazier, since he’s gaining traction. So far I haven’t read it.
I’m having a hard time comparing Frazier to my top two candidates. A quick look some stats….
Prime John Stockton (‘88-’97) (10 seasons in which he missed FOUR GAMES TOTAL)....... Per 100 rs: 21.8 pts, 4.1 reb, 17.9 ast, 3.6 stl, 0.3 blk, 4.7 tov on .619 TS% 22.7 PER, .221 WS/48, 122 ORtg/104 DRtg in 36.2 mpg Per 100 ps: 21.4 pts, 4.8 reb, 16.2 ast, 2.8 stl, 4.5 tov on .574 TS% 20.4 PER, .163 WS/48, 117 ORtg/108 DRtg in 39.0 mpg
Some additional bits about Stockton:
Spoiler:
And fwiw, the only reason I'm declaring '97 the end to his prime is because '97 was the final season in which he was playing "star level" minutes. His level of play otherwise didn't really decline significantly: from '88 on (the last SIXTEEN seasons of his career, right down to the bitter end), he NEVER had a season with a PER <21; he had only 2 seasons out of 16 with a WS/48 <.200; he had TWO seasons in his post-prime with the league's best ORtg (while also only having TWO seasons of his final six which I am calling his "post-prime" in which his DRtg was worse than league average). For impact stats, we only have data for these years that I am classifying as his post-prime, and yet the results could be construed as "eye-opening" to say the least. Here is his league rank in combined PI RAPM for each year: '98--->7th '99--->8th '00--->8th *'01--->3rd (*NPI) '02--->12th '03--->13th
Dude has left a massive statistical footprint on the game...... #1 all-time in career rs assists and steals, and has such a sizable lead in both that these are records none of us are likely to see broken in our lifetimes: has 3,715 more assists than the 2nd-place guy, 581 more steals than the 2nd-place guy. Is #5 all-time in career rs win shares. Is #2 all-time in career playoff assists and #4 in career playoff steals, too; #16 all-time in career playoff WS. He's also inside the top 50 all-time in career rs points, inside top 40 in career playoff points.
Prime Dwyane Wade (‘06-’12)--458 rs games Per 100 rs: 37.8 pts, 7.4 reb, 9.0 ast, 2.6 stl, 1.5 blk, 5.0 tov on .571 TS% 27.2 PER, .210 WS/48, 113 ORtg, 103 DRtg in 37.3 mpg Per 100 ps: 35.1 pts, 7.9 reb, 6.8 ast, 2.3 stl, 1.7 blk, 4.8 tov on .566 TS% 25.0 PER, .195 WS/48, 111 ORtg, 102 DRtg in 40.4 mpg
Prime Walt Frazier (‘70-’76)--529 rs games Per 100 rs (only have data ‘74-’76): 23.0 pts, 7.2 reb, 7.1 ast, 2.4 stl, 0.2 blk on .546 TS% 19.8 PER, .191 WS/48, 96 DRtg (‘74-’76; league avg in that span was 97.9) in 41.2 mpg Per 100 ps (‘74-’76): 26.9 pts, 9.1 reb, 5.4 ast, 2.5 stl, 0.3 blk on .564 TS% 19.9 PER, .198 WS/48, 98 DRtg (league avg those years-->97.7) in 43.3 mpg
Some additional stuff about Wade and Stockton (and Pippen, fwiw) from SactoKingsFan:
Best 10 Year Prime (ASPM, EI, VORP) = Wade/Stockton -----
Durability Stockton 10 Year Prime (88-97): 816 GP, 29543 MP Pippen 10 Year Prime (91-00): 731 GP, 27406 MP Wade 10 Year Prime (05-14): 658 GP, 24204 MP
Wade’s combined PI RAPM in ‘06 is tied for #1 in league with Duncan and Ginobili (ahead of peak Dirk, Nash, and Kobe). In ‘09 he’s again ahead of Kobe, Nash, Dwight Howard, and Chris Paul, to name a few; is 4th in the league behind only Lebron, Garnett, and the possibly fluky result result of Lamar Odom. In ‘10 he’s 2nd in the league to only Lebron, and WELL AHEAD of 3rd place Steve Nash.
Based on all of the above, Frazier’s peak and prime don’t really appear to compare to Wade’s. Wade puts up ~30-40% more offensive volume on comparable efficiency, while also being a comparable rebounder and looking better as a help defender, at least. tbh, on paper it doesn’t even look all that close. This is also reflected in things like MVP voting, where Frazier’s peers never voted him higher than #4 in any given year (which is the only top 5 finish of his career). He has just three top 10 finishes (top 7, actually), though admittedly I have no idea why his peers didn’t give him credit in ‘71 and ‘72. Even if I were to give him credit for top 10 in ‘71 and ‘72 (although his peers didn’t), that would be five top 10 finishes. Wade had two top 5 finishes to Frazier’s one, seven top 10 finishes to Frazier’s “five” (three actual), and a best finish of #3 (to Frazier’s #4)......and this despite playing in a larger league with a slightly greater number of stars/superstars.
Looking at RealGM RPoY results---which considers post-season play, a place where to be sure Frazier tended to shine---Frazier’s top finish was #2, Wade’s was #1.
Based on WS/48 rank, both Frazier and Wade have four seasons finishing in the top 5: Frazier as high as #1 (once), Wade as high as #3. However, based on PER, Frazier has just one season finishing in the league’s top 5 (barely, at 5th). Meanwhile Wade has SIX seasons finishing in the league’s top 5, FIVE times in the top 3, and once as high as #1.
Frazier’s peak and prime, based on all available info, simply don’t compare well. And even against Wade he has only a small longevity/durability case over him (not enough to cover the gap in peaks/primes).
Vs. Stockton Frazier’s peak and prime compare better, especially when factoring in post-season play. It’s still very close though; but then Stockton clubs him mercilessly on the longevity/durability front.
In short, I don’t think Frazier compares well to either. Not to Wade based on strength of peaks/primes, and not to Stockton based on the completely lop-sided longevity/durability argument (with similar strength peak/prime).
Now, accurate and telling defensive metrics are always lacking (and especially for Frazier’s era). For me, someone would need to prove Frazier was essentially the GOAT perimeter defender for me to give him serious consideration at this spot.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd "Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
Still don't think wade belongs here. 11 seasons is certainly a big enough sample size to reflect on his career, but at 32 years old he was on a serious "maintenance plan" just to be able to perform "well" in the playoffs and then fizzle in the finals. He clearly has longevity issues, and that should be considered.
I think we'd have a better idea of where to consider him a few years down the line to see if he sticks in the league. Was he a factor in the heat winning the 2012 and 2013 championships? Sure, but to what extent? He was really in a great [team] situation over the last few seasons.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Durability is basically a subset of longevity, and yes, that's where wade really falters. He may have already had 11 productive seasons, but to basically be on this "maintenance plan" for the last 2 at his age isn't a good sign. I'd consider it a knock against him along with his overall time missed due to injury. No, it isn't his fault, as I think he's a hard worker (although some have questioned his drive to be in great shape lately), but I think durability is important when comparing players at similar levels.
Some quick stats:
For his career, wade has missed an average of 15 games per season. He played in 70+ games for only 6 of his 11 seasons (this includes the lockout shortened season where he played in what would've been equivalent to 60 games in an 82 game season). This is borderline kevin martin territory, who was always one of the better scorers in this league when he was healthy, but we didn't get to see it that often.
Now… the 06 finals. I'm not about to discount his entire performance, but I do value his winning that championship and finals MVP less than I would some others. The bottom line is that the guy got to the line 20+ times in back to back finals games. This is simply unheard of:
In 6 finals appearances, Jordan only accomplished this once. The only other player to do it since 69 was shaq, and the entire gameplan for stopping him back then was to foul him (even without hack a shaq). And no, this clearly doesn't fall under "there's a first time for everything" if you watched that series. Those games defined the phantom foul, and I can't help but believe it was the deciding factor in the series.
Jump to the 2012, 2013, and 2014 finals, where he was essentially average to well below average for his standards:
The guy posted a net negative OFF/DEF RTG in all 3 finals, and the heat still managed to win 2 of them. That doesn't help his case when looking at his entire career.
Wade's peak was no question phenomenal. I think there's a lot of evidence that points to the rest of his career being rather uneven, though. That's the main reason I wouldn't rank him this highly.
Wow, Nash and Kidd already getting mentions? I have Nash in my 30's and Kidd in the 40-50 range.. Nash is one of the greatest playmakers and shooters ever, good playoff performer, capable scorer and a defensive liability..
One of the best offensive playmakers/PG's ever, and during his MVP winning / peak years, had some of the best seasons of any PG ever. A member of the elite 50/40/90 club, certifying himself as one of the greatest shooters ever. Nash also had tremendous impact on a Phoenix Suns team, leading to his MVP's.. Nash would fit on most teams, he's an easy character, unselfish, a great leader and teammate, stuff you want to be, players you want to be surrounded with...
Won 2 controversial MVP's and as great as he played come post-season time, didn't pull off anything historic to get his team over the hump.
Kidd? Poor scorer/shooter, good vision/passer, solid defender, teams thriving in the worst conference/era of possibly ever. Definitely since the start of the modern era ('80's)
But for me he never really stood out.. Not a player I feel to make as much of a difference than a Isiah Thomas, Payton, Ewing, McAdoo or Frazier... I'd rank him a bit lower than Iverson.
Jim Naismith wrote:Baylor seems to be out of the conversation suddenly. It seems he's comparable to Wade, except Baylor has a longevity edge of 127 more games. (Perhaps it's because his peak coincided with the primes of Wilt, Russell, Oscar, West, and Pettit.)
Baylor 1960-63 RS: 33.8 ppg, 17.1 rpg, 4.5 apg, 26.7 PER PS: 35.8 ppg, 15.3 rpg, 4.1 apg, 26.7 PER
My perception is that Baylor and Wade are in the same tier as scorers, with Baylor being a much better rebounder.
He should be conisdering he's a small forward and Wade is a guard. Wade is a far better playmaker and evidence suggets he's a better defender too.
Height Baylor 6' 5" (1.95 m) Wade 6' 4" (1.93 m)
Avg height in NBA during Baylor's career: 6'5.5" Avg height in NBA during Wade's career: just a shade over 6'7".
So relative to league avg, the height diff is about 2.5".
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd "Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
DannyNoonan1221 wrote:Also, I believe Wade's peak is very high.
But a few people are focusing on an eleven game stretch. 11 games?! to me that is ridiculous. Yes it is impressive, but even as wade supporters you are doing him a disservice by shrinking his peak to 11 games. 11 games aren't going to have much pull here when trying to get traction for him. Talk about his peak in a single season, or 3 to 4 year stretch like the other players have been analyzed.
While impressive, 11 games is EXTREMELY small.
Baylor seems to be out of the conversation suddenly. It seems he's comparable to Wade, except Baylor has a longevity edge of 127 more games. (Perhaps it's because his peak coincided with the primes of Wilt, Russell, Oscar, West, and Pettit.)
Baylor 1960-63 RS: 33.8 ppg, 17.1 rpg, 4.5 apg, 26.7 PER PS: 35.8 ppg, 15.3 rpg, 4.1 apg, 26.7 PER
My perception is that Baylor and Wade are in the same tier as scorers, with Baylor being a much better rebounder.
The problem is that the period you cite was the NBA's highest pace era ever.
Once you adjust for pace Baylors's stats are a little more pedestrian. Over the 4 year period of 1960-1963, his per100 numbers come to 31.6PP100, 16.0RP100, 4.2AP100.
If peak Wade is 06-10, then his corresponding stats are 38.4PP100, 7.0RP100, 9.8AP100.
Haven't had time to look into baylor much yet, and still have to decide on a vote, but i've referenced these pace adjusted #s a few times for other guys during that era:
Elgin Baylor – Elgin was another that surprised me. The volume of available rebounds in the ’60s was dramatically higher than it is today. Elgin’s actual rebounds were on par with Charles Barkley, and that’s who I expected to use as the primary comparison. After the pace adjustment, Baylor’s best comparisons were actually Dominique Wilkins and Dr. J. Not necessarily worse but different than Charles.
Avg height in NBA during Baylor's career: 6'5.5" Avg height in NBA during Wade's career: just a shade over 6'7".
So relative to league avg, the height diff is about 2.5".
Are you also taking into account that measuring in shoes adds an average of a little over 1.25 inches So, Baylor would be listed today at 6'6 or 6'7 The average NBA height for Baylor's career would adjust to a shade under 6'7 so the difference would be about 1/4 inch
If you already did that adjustment, then ignore this
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
DannyNoonan1221 wrote:Also, I believe Wade's peak is very high.
But a few people are focusing on an eleven game stretch. 11 games?! to me that is ridiculous. Yes it is impressive, but even as wade supporters you are doing him a disservice by shrinking his peak to 11 games. 11 games aren't going to have much pull here when trying to get traction for him. Talk about his peak in a single season, or 3 to 4 year stretch like the other players have been analyzed.
While impressive, 11 games is EXTREMELY small.
Did you read the entire post? It's not about 11 games . The post explains his entire 09 season which is his peak. The 11 games is the first set of numbers, that's all.
JordansBulls wrote:The Warriors are basically a good college team until they meet a team with bigs in the NBA.
Just a recycle of what I and other posters have already said about him, he was the best player in the league throughout his prime, he led his Lakers to 5 titles in 6 years (5 healthy). I understand his longevity looks like a problem but it was the norm back then to have players retire in their early 30s and be unable to come back from a serious injury. After all, sports medicine was in its infancy and I think practice was even more rudimentary.
I believe Mikan deserves to be seriously considered for the way he dominated the league. Obviously it was lesser competition but as others mentioned, there were other 7-footers who were nowhere hear Mikan in terms of impact and accomplishments.
I can't say how Mikan would do today but he would probably be a good enough athlete and skilled enough to benefit from modern training, fitness, practice methods and be an NBA-caliber player. But I absolutely believe Mikan could have played in the 60s and been a star.
When I look at the other candidates for this spot, I don't see a player who's on Mikan's level as a franchise player, and I always try to add a little "greatness" factor in this list. I believe Mikan could have been voted earlier (and probably should have been if there was more footage and if we could more accurately compare the strength of the league in the 50s) and he probably should have gone before Pettit (obviously my opinion, can't argue with the majority vote).
When George Mikan won his last title, he was facing a team with a 6' 7", 195 lbs starting center. The NBA changed quite a bit since his time. That's smaller than Kyle Korver and Rick Barry.
Nash is praised for his 50/40/90 seasons (that isn't to say people ignore stockton as an efficient scorer), yet both players are nearly identical in career TS% on similar output:
Nash - 1217 games, 60.5% TS on 14.3 PPG, 23.3 PPG per 100 Stockton - 1504 games, 60.8% TS on 13.1 PPG, 21 PPG per 100
We all know about stockton's longevity, but the fact that he did this for nearly 300 more games than nash and didn't fall off is really impressive. I don't know if I quite see stockton here at 23, but I'm leaning towards him over nash right now.
colts18 wrote:When George Mikan won his last title, he was facing a team with a 6' 7", 195 lbs starting center. The NBA changed quite a bit since his time. That's smaller than Kyle Korver and Rick Barry.
In 1971 Jabbar won his first title facing a 6'7 starting center.
In 1997 the Bulls won the NBA title. The tallest of the 5 players who had the most minutes was 6-8
In the RealGM Top 100 in 2008 Wes Unseld was voted 44th all-time and Dolph Schayes (Mikan's opponent) 73rd.
colts18 wrote:When George Mikan won his last title, he was facing a team with a 6' 7", 195 lbs starting center. The NBA changed quite a bit since his time. That's smaller than Kyle Korver and Rick Barry.
In 1971 Jabbar won his first title facing a 6'7 starting center.
In 1997 the Bulls won the NBA title. The tallest of the 5 players who had the most minutes was 6-8
In the RealGM Top 100 in 2008 Wes Unseld was voted 44th all-time and Dolph Schayes (Mikan's opponent) 73rd.
Quotatious wrote:Okay, I'll vote for George Mikan.
Screw poor longevity - I think he's simply the last available player who was the best in the league at any point, and
I don't see how you can put so much value on being the best player in the league when he literally played against scrubs. It seems so arbitrary to me. "Screw longevity"? You knock Wade for longevity but not Mikan?! Wade would've been the best in that era as well. I just don't think it makes sense to rank players that way when you sweep competition completely under the rug. Furthermore we don't know how good Mikan would be in today's game but i'm pretty sure Wade would be a top 5-10 player in any era.
RSCD3_ wrote:Also I'm wondering what do people think about the meaningfulness of parish's longevity and his reputation as a defender
I'm pretty high on Parish, he always impressed me, whenever I watched a game of the 80s Celtics, he was just a player without any real weaknesses, kinda like a poor man's Ewing, or even Duncan - not flashy, but extremely consistent and cerebral player (he had a little more in common with TD than Ewing, in this regard) - he was at least decent/good at basically everything, not really great at anything, but I'd take a player like that on my team, any day of the week, just an extremely solid player, and what's even better - he had star player's talent and role player's mentality - he was willing to do everything that a coach asked him to do - actually his high school coach said that the Chief willingly deferred to his teammates, even in high school...At the same time, I don't think he was really too passive- just really a coach's dream.
His defense was very good, maybe not on the level of the top defensive anchors of all-time, but still a top 30 all-time level defender, maybe even top 25.
His longevity is certainly meaningful - he had 17 seasons as a meaningful contributor, and a 13-year prime, when he never played less than 74 games in any season, usually played 79 or 80 (1979 to 1991). Being the all-time leader in games played (and basically tied with Kareem if you take the RS and PS into account, as a whole), has to count for something, and for example only 4 seasons (rookie, and 1995-97), he averaged single digit points, so that's some really great longevity and durability combined with a high level of play.
That being said, I definitely wouldn't consider Parish just yet - he's a top 50 player, maybe top 45, but definitely not top 25 or 30. Even despite his vastly superior longevity, I wouldn't put him over his teammate Kevin McHale, who was IMO just a clearly better player than Parish.
colts18 wrote:When George Mikan won his last title, he was facing a team with a 6' 7", 195 lbs starting center. The NBA changed quite a bit since his time. That's smaller than Kyle Korver and Rick Barry.
In 1971 Jabbar won his first title facing a 6'7 starting center.
In 1997 the Bulls won the NBA title. The tallest of the 5 players who had the most minutes was 6-8
In the RealGM Top 100 in 2008 Wes Unseld was voted 44th all-time and Dolph Schayes (Mikan's opponent) 73rd.
Basketballefan wrote:I don't see how you can put so much value on being the best player in the league when he literally played against scrubs. It seems so arbitrary to me. "Screw longevity"? You knock Wade for longevity but not Mikan?! Wade would've been the best in that era as well. I just don't think it makes sense to rank players that way when you sweep competition completely under the rug. Furthermore we don't know how good Mikan would be in today's game but i'm pretty sure Wade would be a top 5-10 player in any era.
I don't want to get into hypotheticals here, and if you actually look at my pre-list, I had Wade at 22 and Mikan at 24, so taking Mikan over Wade is a recent change that I've made, and I'm definitely not disrespecting Wade. I actually think very highly of his prime, but at the same time, I don't really care that Mikan played against "scrubs", because that's something he couldn't control. He still absolutely dominated his competition.
Also, it seems like Mikan's poor longevity in the early 50s is a bit less of an issue than Wade's poor longevity in the 2000s, because of how much worse the medical care, training etc. were, in his days, compared to 60 years later (Wade's longevity is better, but PRIME longevity is pretty close - Wade just had more seasons below his prime level, whether it was due to injuries in '07 or '08, or injuries that caused his decline since 2012, and Mikan was clearly more dominant against his peers than Wade against his.
. The post explains his entire 09 season which is his peak. The 11 games is the first set of numbers, that's all.
