Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Hornets

[jazzfan1971]

Charlotte Hornets

Projected Lineup
----------------------------

PG - Kemba Walker, Brian Roberts, Jannero Pargo
SG - Lance Stephenson, P.J. Hariston, Gary Neal
SF - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Gerald Henderson, Jeff Taylor
PF - Marvin Williams, Cody Zeller, Noah Vonleh
C - Al Jefferson, Bismak Biyombo

Trading Block: I'd think Gerald Henderson is on the block. He's a quality player, but, the Hornets have Stephenson and MKG at the swing positions all ready. They could use a consolidation of talent into the PF position so you could see them trying to move a package of players for an upgrade there. Always easier said than done though.

Position Battle: PF. The other 4 positions are pretty set in stone, but, PF is set in marshmallow. Marshmallow that's been in the microwave for 10 seconds. I look for guys to be run in and out of that lineup quite regularly as the coach looks for something that works.

Mystery Man: Lance Stephenson. You have to wonder just how bad his mental make up really is if Indy wouldn't open the wallet a bit for him. The next Artest, er, Metta World Peace?


JazzfanRamblings:
This is my second year doing this project. It's a lot of fun and also a lot of work. My first year I pulled the projected records out of my butt in a highly unscientific (and messy) method. As I posted a new team up every couple of days folks would read and comment; sometimes favorably, sometimes not so much. Floppymoose was one of my regular commentators. He took me to task on quite a few of my predictions and eventually shamed me into a wager on the Nets for a Swap option in a fantasy basketball league we both play in.

Well, the year went by and I thought it would be fun to take a look back and read my old predictions to see how well I did. And as I read it became apparent that in the light of hindsight that Floppymoose was right, almost spot on, in most of what he said. Needless to say he ended up using that swap option. I was very impressed with his accuracy and I asked him if he'd like to come on board and help me out this year making my projections more accurate. Graciously he agreed.

Unlike me, he's using a rather scientific method to predict wins. I'll let him explain it as it's a little over my head, but, it's about data, projections and spreadsheets and lots of work. Unlike my coloncentric projections from the year before.

So... Why do I bring this up here?

His spreadsheet and my colon have vastly differing opinions on the Hornets this coming year. Like night and day. Here is the thing, he's going out on a bit of a limb with this prediction, and while I disagree with it, I have an immense respect for someone that will put their name on the line with a prediction that goes against the general consensus. If his projection is borne out, and the Hornets are 14 wins worse this year than last then his method and ability are confirmed. It's his spreadsheet vs. my colon. Man vs. machine. It's like the legend of John Henry all over again.

Floppymusings:
This will be controversial... the Hornets are not going to win many games. There isn't one simple reason. It's a lot of reasons glued together. First, they overachieved last season (by 3 wins - expected pythagorean W/L was 40-42). Next, Lance is nice but isn't as much of a game-changer as some think. On top of that he has the potential to be a distraction. Next, the scrubby forwards they lost (McBob, King Tolly) aren't quite as scrubby as some think. Next, their bench is killing them. It's like GSW from last season, except GSW had one of the best starting 5's in the league. The Hornets have AlJeff, Kemba, Lance, MKG, and a center to be named later. Next, several teams in the east are improved (CLE, CHI, WAS, ATL) and the teams that got worse are mostly still better than the Hornets (MIA, IND, BKN). Finally, if the wheels do come off as I think they will, the Hornets won't have a lot of incentive to try to win games late in the season.

My methods are statistical in nature and there are bound to be outliers. The results that look the most suspicious are likely to be the results where the forces of randomness have conspired against me. So I won't be surprised if the Hornets surpass my projection. But I do believe they are actually going to win fewer games than last year, probably significantly fewer. Hornets fans are long-suffering and deserve a good team, so I'll be rooting for them and hoping I'm wrong.

Projected Record - 29/53 (I'm guessing 45/37 - Jazz)

[Left Side Drive]

General Board and Hornets fans aren't going to like this lol.

As long as Lance Stephenson fits into the system the team should make the playoffs for sure. Where in the East is hard to tell since they play in a relatively difficult division. Definitely see a 4-6 seed finish though.

[Gus Fring]

Taken yalls predictions less and less seriously

[Ahmed1212]

Aside from Walker, Jefferson, Stephenson can any other player get you more then 10 points consistentley

[DaddyCool19]

The projected record is again laughable.

[chuckdevlin]

29/53 ?????????

Cha has a chance of becoming a really good team in the east if they can upgrade their PF spot.
If nothing horrible goes wrong they should be a lock for the playoffs

[jazzfan1971]

I do wonder how badly McRoberts will be missed. He looked very good to me last season. Like he really started to put it all together. Nice signing by Miami.

[pacers33granger]

I do wonder how badly McRoberts will be missed. He looked very good to me last season. Like he really started to put it all together. Nice signing by Miami.

I think improvement from Walker, Biz, and MKG should be enough to cover any loss from McRoberts leaving. He's good, but nothing special. His unique skillset seems to make him look better than he is. And then you add in Lance, and there's really no way this team isn't at the very least above .500, if not much higher. You also will likely have improvement in the coaching and Jefferson will be more comfortable.

Only way they even come close to missing the playoffs is if Lance turns back into bad Lance full season.

[Notanoob]

I'm not sure how your projection system works, so does it take into account Al Jefferson's injuries last season? I know that he has a history of getting banged up, but when he was healthy the Hornets were balling.

In any event, this year will probably help people realize how useful McRoberts was to that team. He provided spacing that the team needed desperately in the starting lineup and his playmaking was vital in keeping the offense moving, since Kemba was the only other guy who would regularly create looks for others. Lance replaces some of this, and is a better defender at his position than McRoberts is at PF, but I think that McRobert's skills are mor valuable than people realize because they are so unusual at his position. Zeller will have to be a reliable jump shooter for them, since Vonleh looks unprepared to start.

Lance is going to have to have a very good year though. I fear that he'll be in 'prove it to the Pacers' mode for some of the season and might look for his own shot more than he should. His 3 point shot must not regress either- up until this season, he was a poor 3 point shooter, and even last year he was just mediocre.

Of course, MKG could finally fix his jump shot, live up to his status as the #2 pick, and thus earn bigger minutes and vastly improve the team. I am not counting on it, but I love the guy and really hope that he'll find his hot and put himself in the discussion with Leonard and maybe even George as the next big thing at SF.

Like Floppymoose, I'll be cheering for the Hornets to prove this prediction wrong.

[LloydFree]

I thought this series couldn't get any more comical. Embarrassing.

[NCHeels2008]

I feel like this is Hollingers "formulas" but worse

[tayottt]

I like how Jazzfan1971 tried to build Floppymoose up only to have him deliver one of the more comical predictions I've seen. I don't think there is a shot in hell the Bobcats win a measly 29 games. For one, I would love to hear more about the analytical model that Floppy is using. Based on the statistics I use (WS/WP/RPM), I would say that the Bobcats should be in that 42-46 win range.

1. The losses of Tolliver and Mcbob will hurt them. Particularly Mcbob's ability to facilitate will be missed. However, they more than make up for that loss by replacing Gerald Henderson with Lance Stephenson. Henderson off the bench also adds some more depth. Every time I watched the Pacers last season I was always impressed by Lance Stephenson's ability on both ends. The extra-curricular activities in the playoffs didn't change my perception at all. He is still a YOUNG (and developing) player that is above average on both ends (compared to Henderson who is older and below average at both ends).

2. Four of the core rotation players on this team haven't hit their prime and are expected to improve. Stephenson (23), Walker (23), Zeller (21), Kidd Gilchrist (20), and Biyombo (21) can all be expected to slightly improve.

3. Continuity with coach Clifford. The most important quality of an NBA coach is the ability to craft a top 10 defense. Becoming a top 10 offense mostly boils down to skill. Becoming a top 10 defense requires a coach that can get players to buy in. Thus far Clifford has shown that ability and in losing McRoberts and gaining Stephenson the defense should only improve.

I have the Hornets at about 45 wins.

[8305]

I hadn't looked at this board for about 3 days and at first glance wondered how many team assessments I'd missed for Charlotte to be up already. Turns out not that many. Funny thing, I kind of agree with the prediction of a disappointing season. No statistical basis for the opinion other than an observation that so much is needed from a very young group of players combined with the cumbustible personality of Lance Stephenson.

When we talked about Lance and free agency on the Pacer board last year we all agreed that the worst possible outcome for eveyone concerned would be Lance going to a very young team. I know the people in Charlotte loved the structure the new coaching regime brought last year and maybe that will be enough to keep Lance under control. But, as a guy who's been watching Lance for the last for years the guy still has a lot of growing up to do and the Pacers had a pretty strong culture and support group in place for his benefit.

[SlowPaced]

Sorry but I'm not going to read a series as absurd as this one.

[bondom34]

Yeah, I liked these last year, but kinda rediculous now.

[LofJ]

When you get results like this it's a good idea to go back and take another look at your methodology. I'd be willing to bet the Hornets aren't the only team with a big gap in wins/losses from what the general consensus is.

[Mamba4Goat]

Jazzfan, what teams have you guys done so far? I think they're decent reads and have seen a few, but I'm not sure if I've missed any.

[jazzfan1971]

cha
olr
bos
mil
sac
uta
lal
phi

I'm sorry they've been coming out slow lately. Since my kids started school spare time has been hard to find.

[yosemiteben]

Young roster with another offseason of development.
+
Very promising second year coach with first full offseason after any head coaching experience.
+
Major upgrade in talent at position of need.
+
Loss of largely fungible non-core assets (McRoberts, CDR, Tolliver) replaced by (at this point) slightly lesser versions of fungible non-core assets (Marvin Williams, PJ Hairston, Noah Vonleh).
=
14 fewer wins

Ok

[suntzuballin]

you think the hornets would improve this year....wasnt jefferson a pf and zeller a center..