Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Pistons

[jazzfan1971]

Detroit Pistons

Projected Lineup
-------------------------

PG - Brandon Jennings, DJ Augustine, Will Bynum
SG - Jodie Meeks, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Spencer Dinwiddie
SF - Kyle Singler, Caron Butler, Luigi Datome
PF - Greg Monroe, Josh Smith, Jonas Jerebko, Tony Mitchell
C - Andre Drummond, Aaron Gray

Trading Block: Josh Smith. Or maybe Greg Monroe. It's pretty clear that one of these two needs to go. I think Detroit would prefer to hang onto Monroe, but, if the right offer comes along I could see them handing the PF job to Smith and trading Monroe instead.

Position Battle: Everyone but Drummond. This lineup is very flexible. You could see Augustine, KCP, Butler, or Josh Smith starting instead of the 4 starters I have listed and not be surprised.

Mystery Man: Right now it's Greg Monroe, but, that could change any minute. But, right now we don't know if he's going to extend, take the QO or be traded. He's very much up in the air as of now making everything else quite hard to discern. My best guess is that Smith gets traded for a bag of warm sand and Monroe takes an extension.

Floppymusings:
Will the Pistons respond to Stan Van Gundy? Maybe. But it doesn't matter as long as Brandon Jennings is controlling the offense. Whenever he leaves town is when their upswing will begin. Replace Jennings with a guy like Jason Kidd in his day, and you have a mortal lock for a playoff squad. As it is the Pistons will be treading water this year.

JazzfanRamblings:
Who is Andre Drummond?

I honestly don't know. I can see that Detroit is pinning all their hopes on him. They have made a concerted effort to surround him with shooters to give him space to opperate this year. I suspect his Field goal attempts will see a substantial bump this year. In 32.3 minutes last year Andre was only able to get up 9.5 shot attempts. That's not nearly enough for your franchise player. Guys who Andre wants to be in the same class, guys like Cousins, Dwight, and Jefferson, those guys are getting nearly double the shot attempts a night. It's not like Drummond can't score, he shot a very nice 62.3%. Compare that to the 37.3% that brandon Jennings shot and Brandon's 14.2 shot attempts a night. It seems a little topsy turvy that shot distribution given those shooting percentges, at least from where I'm sitting.

But, maybe Drummond can't be a guy that you run an offense through. It's entirely possible that's the case. Yinka Dare thinks he needs to pass a bit more and Chris Dudley thinks he could work on his free throws. And while we've had some amazing centers that were a disaster at the stripe, I don't think you can run an offense through a guy that gives you .4 assists a night like Drummond did last year. It's a worry. Drummond's minutes increased from 20 to 32 from his first year to his second and his assists per game actually dropped.

So what is he? Is he going to be limited to an energy guy? Is he a glorified DeAndre Jordan? Or can he be that 2 way player that Detroit is looking to build around? I can only say it's clear that Detroit is betting on him being more Dwight Howard than DeAndre Jordan. If they are wrong their season will be a repeat of last year because they really didn't do a lot to get better this offseason, they made a few tweaks, sure, but, without a breakout year from Drummond it's going to be more of the same.

Yinka, Dudley, and I are all pulling for you Andre, don't let us and all of Detroit down.

Projected record - 30/52

[He Filled it Up]

I know every fanbase so far has had the exact same criticism so far, and I want to preface by saying I have really enjoyed your breakdowns, but how does a massive upgrade in coaching and the positive trending development from our best player not worth more than one win over last season?

[marcusaurelius]

It looks like to me that the Pistons should have a slightly improved roster, and a vastly improved coach. I don't believe that Gundy has ever had a losing season.

This is a relatively young team with lots of upside. They need a solid system and some discipline. Just figuring out proper rotations would help a lot.

In a perfect world, they would trade Monroe (and Jennings if possible) to get some pieces that fit the team better. Drummond is the future, not Monroe. But unfortunately, that may not be possible. However, I believe that Smith, Monroe, and Drummond can possibly be molded into a decent 3 man rotation.

Smith and Jennings also both had close to career worst years. Statistics says that they should get back closer to their career averages. So that could help at least a little.

Even with the present roster, I think that they improve a lot. The Pacers will drop out of the playoffs, and Detroit will replace them. But just barely. Give them a couple of years to tweak the roster, and for the young players to get better, and they could be quite good. Top four in the East, in about 3 years.

[jazzfan1971]

It's the same answer.

All 30 teams can improve and not one of them have a better record. Just because your team improved isn't necessarily going to translate into wins. It also depends on what other teams are doing. I think in the East more teams improved than got worse this year. So, especially for Eastern teams, just being better than last year isn't quite as impressive as it might feel like.

[tayottt]

This prediction hits a little bit closer to home for me. The Pistons won 29 games last season but were expected to win 31. I would say that the Pistons should improve just based on the upgrade in coaching and adding pieces that can improve their offensive spacing. It is also very likely that players like KCP, Drummond, and Monroe improve. I just can't bring myself to increase their win total much. Their division has gotten better overall with the resurgence of Cleveland as well as the Bulls off-season additions. The Bucks were one of the worst coached teams last season and should be more consistent and less injured. The Bucks are also another team with a number of core young pieces that should be expected to grow (Giannis, Henson, Parker, Wolters, Knight, etc.). Obviously the Pacers will be significantly worse but I think the Central division will be a little tougher overall and it might take time for this particular Pistons team to gel.

This is a tough team to peg. I could talk myself into them being a .500 team if things break down correctly. Looking at the numbers most of the rotation players on the Pistons are below average in production with Drummond and Monroe providing above average contributions.

The Pistons were 25th ranked in defense despite having such a big front court, They were the 11th worst team in terms of fg% allowed at the rim last season despite having Drummond/Monroe. They were also one of the 10 worst teams in guarding the three.

Stan Van Gundy more than most coaches in the league understands the importance of protecting the rim and closing out to shooters. Is it beyond the realm of possibility that he can take this team from 25th ranked defense to 15th with the personnel they have?

The Pistons were 19th in offensive rating last season while playing lineups that consisted of only one three point threat. It's actually fairly amazing their O-rating wasn't worse. Being #1 in Offensive boards helped A LOT.

You know what? This team has the talent to win 40ish games. Looking at the numbers and the personnel I think that they were coached very poorly. None of the lineups that played significant minutes had a league AVERAGE three point shooting percentage. Essentially, the team had no floor spacing and only survived offensively due to Drummond and Monroe's offensive rebounding ability.

Many of us scoffed at the contract they gave Jodie Meeks but looking at all the information available on this team. THEY NEED JODIE MEEKS. The three point shooting of Meeks and Augustin will be pivotal. It will also be important that Dinwiddie and Caldwell-Pope develop.

There's a scenario where the Pistons could be solid. My main problem now would be their Point Guard. Jennings is without doubt the worst starting PG in the NBA. He is bad on offense and even worse on defense. Hopefully SVG limits his role. The 2nd biggest problem is how they will manage Josh Smith. Playing Smith/Drummond/Monroe didn't work at all last year on both ends of the floor. Smith can be solid as a 4 but shouldn't be played at the three at ALL. Ideally the Pistons find a way to get rid of Jennings AND Smith, then fill out with another 3-D wing and solid PG.

This is actually one of the tougher teams to predict. Maybe 35 wins would be a nice conservative estimate as their best case would be 45 and their worst would be 25.

[marcusaurelius]

It's the same answer.

All 30 teams can improve and not one of them have a better record. Just because your team improved isn't necessarily going to translate into wins. It also depends on what other teams are doing. I think in the East more teams improved than got worse this year. So, especially for Eastern teams, just being better than last year isn't quite as impressive as it might feel like.

I agree with you that many teams in the East will be slightly better this year. I just think that Detroit will be a lot better.

My crystal ball says that KCP surprises on the upside. Drummond makes a fairly sizable improvement. Jennings and Smith look a little better. Better outside shooting from Meeks. Augustine may actually be better than Jennings, or at least be a solid backup. And Gundy ties it all together, at least semi competently, hopefully more.

The "Captains" of the Detroit ship have been acting like drunk sailors in a Subic Bay bar for years. Now some adults are in charge.

[Scalabrine]

I know every fanbase so far has had the exact same criticism so far, and I want to preface by saying I have really enjoyed your breakdowns, but how does a massive upgrade in coaching and the positive trending development from our best player not worth more than one win over last season?

Because the east was a joke for the majority of last season and now there are other teams that have improved too. Nets were one of the best teams in the league in the second half, Raptors have developing players , Knicks finished 17-8 last year, Bulls have Rose back and added Gasol, Hawks were the 3 seed until Horford got injured...then there is obviously the Cavs who have added the best player in the world plus Kevin Love, Shawn Marion, Mike Miller, etc., the Heat lost LeBron but I think most would still think that Wade, Deng, and Bosh is better than the Pistons...

The Pistons may have improved but so have many other teams in the East. There just aren't as many easy wins. I could see them anywhere between 6-11 in the East and seeing as there roster is so incomplete, they could be an entirely different team by the end of the offseason...

[jazzfan1971]

I don't believe that Floppy's system captures coaching changes in the least. He can tell me if I'm wrong. But, it's possible that if the ranking is too low that the reason may be that a coaching change was impactful to wins and losses.

Personally, I don't usually put much weight into a coaching change even in my coloncentric rankings. It's just too hard to predict. Kinda like injuries.

For instance, the Jazz got a new coach, and all of Jazz nation thinks that Corbin was the worst coach ever and Snyder is going to breathe fresh life into the team. Maybe. For me, I just hold off on making those kinds of predictions until things are in the rear view mirror (where predictions are undeniably easier to make).

Will SVG slap the Pistons into shape? I dunno. I tend to believe that it's the players that make the difference and not the coach, and this coming from a guy who went from Sloan to Corbin.

-shrug-

We will see.

[Left Side Drive]

Yeah I think people focus way too much on the W-L record...thing is if the conference got better as a whole you could very well end up with similar W-L as last season.

Having said that I think the Pistons could be a candidate for the 8th spot if all goes well but I feel that the fact that they lack a go-to player to get things done when they need it most is gonna cost them. Clutch performances are necessary to have a solid team and Pistons may have many games where they keep it close but can't close it off.

[Scalabrine]

Yeah I think people focus way too much on the W-L record...thing is if the conference got better as a whole you could very well end up with similar W-L as last season.

Having said that I think the Pistons could be a candidate for the 8th spot if all goes well but I feel that the fact that they lack a go-to player to get things done when they need it most is gonna cost them. Clutch performances are necessary to have a solid team and Pistons may have many games where they keep it close but can't close it off.

I think 7 of the teams that finished above them will be better than they were last year. The Pacers, Nets, and Heat all regressed but will all be still be good teams competing for a spot in the playoffs. I think the Atlantic division is very close... Toronto, NY, or Brooklyn could all take it and theres potential for the division winner to be the only rep in the division in the playoffs.

[Left Side Drive]

Yeah I think people focus way too much on the W-L record...thing is if the conference got better as a whole you could very well end up with similar W-L as last season.

Having said that I think the Pistons could be a candidate for the 8th spot if all goes well but I feel that the fact that they lack a go-to player to get things done when they need it most is gonna cost them. Clutch performances are necessary to have a solid team and Pistons may have many games where they keep it close but can't close it off.

I think 7 of the teams that finished above them will be better than they were last year. The Pacers, Nets, and Heat all regressed but will all be still be good teams competing for a spot in the playoffs. I think the Atlantic division is very close... Toronto, NY, or Brooklyn could all take it and theres potential for the division winner to be the only rep in the division in the playoffs.

IMO I think the Atlantic division will be better than most predict with the Raptors, Nets and Knicks competing for the playoffs. But I feel as though only 2 of the 3 teams actually make it.

On the other hand, I have a tough time seeing the Pacers making it with the absence of Paul George as well as the loss of Stephenson (who played a fairly crucial role on the Pacers).

I said the Pistons will compete for the 8th spot but I don't think they make it. Maybe 9th spot. Pistons gotta make changes to their core which atm consists of Drummond as the only staple.

[Snakebites]

I don't believe that Floppy's system captures coaching changes in the least. He can tell me if I'm wrong. But, it's possible that if the ranking is too low that the reason may be that a coaching change was impactful to wins and losses.

Personally, I don't usually put much weight into a coaching change even in my coloncentric rankings. It's just too hard to predict. Kinda like injuries.

For instance, the Jazz got a new coach, and all of Jazz nation thinks that Corbin was the worst coach ever and Snyder is going to breathe fresh life into the team. Maybe. For me, I just hold off on making those kinds of predictions until things are in the rear view mirror (where predictions are undeniably easier to make).

Will SVG slap the Pistons into shape? I dunno. I tend to believe that it's the players that make the difference and not the coach, and this coming from a guy who went from Sloan to Corbin.

-shrug-

We will see.

Seems reasonable to me.

Projections Pistons fans make for improvement are based on what COULD be, not what is as it appears now.

We can't expect fans from other teams who don't have the same biases to be as generous.

[BigFatBob]

I don't think Van Gundy would start Meeks or Kyle at all.

[jazzfan1971]

I was hoping this might generate a little discussion on Andre Drummond and his outlook this year.

[Notanoob]

I don't think Van Gundy would start Meeks or Kyle at all.

I expect KCP to take Meek's starting job, or at least I really hope he does, since he's the only above-average perimeter defender we have, but Singler absolutely has to start. He is the only legitimate SF on this roster. Butler is too old to play starter's minutes and basically can't do anything but shoot at this point, Datome was terrible in extremely limited minutes last year and is probably destined to play stretch 4 since he isn't all that athletic, and Martin is far too limited to play start either. Singler is the only guy with the proper combination of size and mobility, plus he's at least an okay shooter and clever cutter/offensive rebounder on occasion.

At the OP, the record doesn't look to be that far off. As much as I want it to happen, I really struggle to believe that SVG will be able to get through to both Smith and Jennings and change their games. Jennings is still going to suck at finishing around the hoop with his off hand, he still probably won't draw fouls when he does go to the basket, he probably hasn't fixed his shooting form but will continue to shoot more jumpers than he should, and he probably still will be an absolutely sieve on defense. Even if Stan benches him (which I honestly expect to happen) I doubt that Jennings will really figure it out. It's not like he's going to add the muscle to finish and fight through screens and fix his shooting form in the middle of the season.

Same with Smith. He'll be better than last season- it's be hard to get worse. Fewer jumpers and fewer threes will certainly happen. On the other hand, I doubt that he'll ever really eliminate those from his 'arsenal'. Still, I think there is a better chance that he improves his defense. Last year he wasn't that great on defense; this year he might focus more and not get lost off ball chasing around perimeter players.

And underrated storyline is the potential for some serious combustion between Monroe/Smith/SVG and Jennings/SVG. Since Stan is the GM and coach, he will have no fear of pissing off his players, so Jennings will get no mercy. If he gets benched, he might very well take it the wrong way and start feuding with Stan. Moose, being in a contract year, will also be looking for touches and playing time, those will likely come at the expense of Josh Smith (who I bet would not want to come off the bench for Moose) and Andre (the franchise player who would likely be cool with it, but Stan will want to get more involved). Stan is going to have to maintain a tricky balance between his three main big men to keep everyone involved happy. I suspect that there might already be a bit of animosity between Monroe and Stan already because of the way the contract negotiations have gone nowhere, but who knows.

Under 40 wins is to be expected this season, I think that far too many things have to go right to for them to get over 40 this season.

[tayottt]

I was hoping this might generate a little discussion on Andre Drummond and his outlook this year.

I think Drummond's stats will look mostly the same this season. Ideally, there will be more space for him to operate down low and execute his patented right handed jump hook. Andre Drummond is a very interesting player.

It's scary to think about how good he could be. For me, the most important part of his development will be on the defensive end of the floor. If he could use his body and become an elite rim protector while retaining his excellent rebounding numbers he would be a hall of famer. I'm sure his offense will become a bit more polished though I doubt he will ever be a good free throw shooter.

I like to think of Drummond's ceiling as a more athletic/offensively-skilled Dennis Rodman.

He doesn't get many assists but it's not a big problem for me. The average assists/48 for a Center is 2.5 . Drummond is very low at .6/48, so it would be ideal if he could improve at that but I don't think passing is one of the top four most valuable skills for a Center. I suppose it depends on the offensive system being run....

[giberish]

They should improve by adapting a strict 2 on/1 off rotation with Smith/Monroe/Drummond. KCP looked useful enough as a rookie that his expected improvement should help some as well.

Still - the team is a disaster at PG and SF and has some clear defensive issues that will be tough for anyone to help. If Indy decides to rebuild George Hill could really help this team (assuming he could be had for a salary-relief based package).

[epheisey]

Drummond's offense was strictly from offensive boards and passes that he finished at the basket. If he becomes a part of the offense gameplan, he would have the ball in his hands more, which would present him with the opportunity for more assists. When Drummond got the ball last season, there was either a turnover or a shot. It wasn't ever in the flow of the offense where he would be encouraged to keep the ball moving.

With more involvement in the offense, he should get more shot attempts. His shooting % is likely to decrease, simply because he should be taking some contested shots now, instead of easy put backs/dunks from hand offs. But that should also increase his scoring output. SVG doesn't value offensive rebounding much, so there's a possibility that his offensive boards decrease. But I think that him likely playing less alongside of Monroe will allow him to keep his rebounding numbers about the same, or possibly even up a tick. I think a 14-16 ppg/13-14 rpg average is reasonable.

[Liver_Pooty]

Hey, at least they didn't predict you guys to win 29 games like the Hornets.

[snomeister]

This is a team that could go either way. The roster is a bit of a nightmare. There's not too many guys there that most teams would love to have outside of Drummond, and he too has his flaws. I like KCP though and I think he could break out as an interesting player if given the minutes and a substantial role. I also have a lot of faith in SVG as a coach, so I could see him figuring out a rotation out of the rubble and create a system around Drummond. So I could see them making the playoffs.

On the other hand, this group of players can just as easily turn into the trainwreck that it was last year, so I don't see anything wrong with the prediction.