RealGM Top 100 List #28

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 

Post#61 » by penbeast0 » Wed Sep 10, 2014 4:53 pm

RebelWithACause wrote:...

I personally would prefer about 10 wings at this point, before even thinking about Moncrief to be honest.

His longevity is mediocre.
Pennbeast spoke about his terrific man defense often. Yet as great as his man defense was his help defense was not nearly as good and help defense is something much more valuable regarding value and impact especially among wing players.
His offense was simplistic, yet effective. His skill set does not strike me as great.
Most of his games I watched were from the 84-85 season, which is his prime/peak and from the eye test I was not that impressed actually (as I am with other wings that are not in yet)

I am surprised how Moncrief ranked so early in the last project (at 53).

Does anybody have some compelling evidence for Moncrief to sway me on this one here?


Longevity is poor, that's the reason he's not ranked higher. His man defense is probably the all-time best in terms of shutting down an opposing shooter , particularly a jump shooter. If he was playing today, you could be playing Houston and if you put Sid on James Harden, there would be a decent chance that Harden is not a factor in the game. Thus either Dwight has to have a big game or someone like Ariza or Lin has to step up. That's huge if you can do it.

I strongly disagree about the value of man defense v. help defense for wings. For bigs, great help defense is clearly more important, for wings, I would guess that man defense is more key -- especially in the era of ball dominant wings. I don't have RAPM to back me up, but Moncrief led a bunch of top defenses in those 5 years (then Pressey led another top defense after Moncrief went down but Milwaukee couldn't maintain it after that). And, he did it without great big man help. Milwaukee used a center by committee with the likes of good defense but foul prone Alton Lister, and defensive specialist Harvey Catchings platooning with solid but not outstanding offensive scorers like aging Bob Lanier or Randy Breuer. None was that good, but they were adequate. BUT, Nelson made the defense work by taking opponents out of their game plan and Moncrief's ability to shut down an Otis Birdsong or Dennis Johnson was a big part of that.

Finally, offensively, he was a lower volume, more efficient version of Dwyane Wade -- super athletic and virtually impossible to stop from getting an open shot in midrange or driving to the hoop where he was an excellent finisher with good foul draw. He was around .600 ts% on 20ppg several of those 5 years while playing on an offense designed to spread shots round rather than open space for the star. That's impressive offense as well.

If Moncrief had 10 healthy years instead of 5 at the same level of dominance, I'd have around Dwyane Wade's level here though his playoff record was up and down -- one year he led the league in playoff efficiency, the next he had a bad stretch. He shut Birdsong and Dennis Johnson down, but Andrew Toney had a big series. Still, he was more capable of dominating opposing teams defensively than any other 2 I have ever seen - including Jordan (though I might take Jordan for one key game or one key 4th quarter defensively).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 

Post#62 » by Clyde Frazier » Wed Sep 10, 2014 4:54 pm

Just wanted to get people's thoughts on billups as it relates to this project since he announced his retirement yesterday. I see he ranked 83rd in 2011, and looking back on his career now, maybe he has a case for being higher?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... uch01.html

His production from 03-11 is pretty impressive, and probably fell under the radar at times when accolades were given out. I've never been a HUGE billups fan, but his game translated to a long stretch of playoff success, and he played the whole leadership PG role as well as anyone.

Since i'm doing my rankings as I go along, I really don't know where i'd rank him yet. Just not in that mindset.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 

Post#63 » by colts18 » Wed Sep 10, 2014 5:38 pm

Points above average using the 01-14 14 year RAPM

Players in bold haven't been selected yet

Rank Name RAPM Points above avg
1 Kevin Garnett 9.7 6303
2 LeBron James 9.5 5785
3 Dirk Nowitzki 7.4 5320
4 Tim Duncan 7.9 5147
5 Paul Pierce 5.9 4207
6 Steve Nash 6 3830
7 Kobe Bryant 5.3 3788
8 Vince Carter 4.8 3028
9 Baron Davis 5.5 2809
10 Manu Ginobili 6.9 2766

11 Dwyane Wade 5.6 2732
12 Tracy McGrady 5.7 2730
13 Chris Paul 7.4 2703
14 Jason Kidd 4 2585
15 Shawn Marion 3.5 2501
16 Rasheed Wallace 5.3 2398
17 Andre Iguodala 4.6 2391
18 Metta World Peace 4.4 2329

19 Shaquille O'Neal 5.7 2323
20 Ray Allen 3.5 2296


Paul Pierce looks good by this metric. He ranks ahead of Steve Nash and Kobe in this metric. Vince Carter is another name who should be mentioned in the top 50
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 

Post#64 » by RebelWithACause » Wed Sep 10, 2014 6:14 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
RebelWithACause wrote:...

Spoiler:
I personally would prefer about 10 wings at this point, before even thinking about Moncrief to be honest.

His longevity is mediocre.
Pennbeast spoke about his terrific man defense often. Yet as great as his man defense was his help defense was not nearly as good and help defense is something much more valuable regarding value and impact especially among wing players.
His offense was simplistic, yet effective. His skill set does not strike me as great.
Most of his games I watched were from the 84-85 season, which is his prime/peak and from the eye test I was not that impressed actually (as I am with other wings that are not in yet)

I am surprised how Moncrief ranked so early in the last project (at 53).

Does anybody have some compelling evidence for Moncrief to sway me on this one here?


Spoiler:
Longevity is poor, that's the reason he's not ranked higher. His man defense is probably the all-time best in terms of shutting down an opposing shooter , particularly a jump shooter. If he was playing today, you could be playing Houston and if you put Sid on James Harden, there would be a decent chance that Harden is not a factor in the game. Thus either Dwight has to have a big game or someone like Ariza or Lin has to step up. That's huge if you can do it.

I strongly disagree about the value of man defense v. help defense for wings. For bigs, great help defense is clearly more important, for wings, I would guess that man defense is more key -- especially in the era of ball dominant wings. I don't have RAPM to back me up, but Moncrief led a bunch of top defenses in those 5 years (then Pressey led another top defense after Moncrief went down but Milwaukee couldn't maintain it after that). And, he did it without great big man help. Milwaukee used a center by committee with the likes of good defense but foul prone Alton Lister, and defensive specialist Harvey Catchings platooning with solid but not outstanding offensive scorers like aging Bob Lanier or Randy Breuer. None was that good, but they were adequate. BUT, Nelson made the defense work by taking opponents out of their game plan and Moncrief's ability to shut down an Otis Birdsong or Dennis Johnson was a big part of that.

Finally, offensively, he was a lower volume, more efficient version of Dwyane Wade -- super athletic and virtually impossible to stop from getting an open shot in midrange or driving to the hoop where he was an excellent finisher with good foul draw. He was around .600 ts% on 20ppg several of those 5 years while playing on an offense designed to spread shots round rather than open space for the star. That's impressive offense as well.

If Moncrief had 10 healthy years instead of 5 at the same level of dominance, I'd have around Dwyane Wade's level here though his playoff record was up and down -- one year he led the league in playoff efficiency, the next he had a bad stretch. He shut Birdsong and Dennis Johnson down, but Andrew Toney had a big series. Still, he was more capable of dominating opposing teams defensively than any other 2 I have ever seen - including Jordan (though I might take Jordan for one key game or one key 4th quarter defensively)
.


Longevity: Yes, this is the main knock on him

Prime-strength: I think for those 5 years Moncrief was an All-Star caliber player, but I fail to see right now, how he can be better than that. For example you tend to believe, Moncrief is better than Wade for their 5 best years. I strongly disagree.

Playoffs: On average, his offense dropped immensely, not just a bit, in the Playoffs. So there is even more room to question his offensive capabilites.

Man defense vs Help defense for wings:

I do not have an article or study at hand which shows which is more important for wing defenders.

However, here are the Top10 wing defenders since we have RAPM (Reference: DocMJ spreadsheet)

Battier: 7.30
Artest: 6.87
T. Allen: 6.52
Deng: 6.21
E. Jones: 5.82
G. Wallace: 5.63
D. Christie: 5.47
Bowen: 5.43
Iguodala: 5.36
Kirilenko: 5.17
LeBron: 4.79

This is a list full of extremly good help and off-ball defenders. Obviously, also on-ball, but I would argue the focus here is more on help defense and off ball defensive value.

Anybody can chime in on this matter?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 

Post#65 » by JordansBulls » Wed Sep 10, 2014 7:37 pm

It's weird to see how much Elgin Baylor has fallen off over the years in these.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 

Post#66 » by ronnymac2 » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:50 pm

Vote: Rick Barry

It comes down to Kevin Durant, Rick Barry, Isiah Thomas, Walt Frazier, and Chris Paul.

I need one or two more seasons from KD. I was close to picking him for this spot because the arguments trying to alleviate his longevity disadvantages relative to his competition have made sense to me, but not quite enough against Barry. Durant might have the best peak of anybody left, up there with McGrady, Paul, Barry, Penny Hardaway, and Bill Walton.

Isiah vs. Paul is interesting. I think Paul is a more responsible version of Isiah, but Isiah has the longevity edge for now. Isiah's peak is underrated though. His playoff performances in non-title winning years are spectacular in my opinion. Barry has the slight edge over those 2 PGs.

I'll take Barry over Frazier because he was slightly better at his peak and has more longevity. A solid argument can be made that Frazier has more legitimate prime longevity, but I don't totally discount Barry's ABA years. Fair if you do considering the ABA was inferior when Barry played in that league.

I've already talked in a previous thread about how I see peak Barry's game as a combination of old man Kobe, a little bit of Bird, and a little bit of Ray Allen. Just a terrifying offensive player with excellent shooting and passing skills, underrated athleticism, and great spatial recognition. His 1974-1976 peak period is comparable to anybody's left.

His 1967 season goes underrated because I think people sometimes only see the 35.6 points per game and think "chucker."

Well the league average FG% in 1967 was 44.1%. The Warriors shot 43.3% as a team Rick Barry shot 45.1% from the field and had the most field goal attempts in the NBA. So it wasn't just that he was taking a ton of shots. He was taking a ton of shots and making them at a strong enough rate to make sense to keep shooting.

It's fair to wonder if Barry's scoring in 1967 was like Wilt's in 1962 since the Warrior offense wasn't strong in 1967. I'd say it's not the case because:

1. Barry wasn't a ball-stopper.
2. Barry was a perimeter player, so it's easier to deliver the ball to him without forcing it to him.
3. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Barry had a negative reputation of being less than the sum of his stats on the court (being a douche off the court is a different matter entirely).



I can see Jason Kidd, Gary Payton, Elgin Baylor, John Havlicek, Clyde Drexler, Alex English, Reggie Miller, Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, Ray Allen, Allen Iverson, George Gervin, and Tracy McGrady as legit candidates coming up.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 

Post#67 » by DQuinn1575 » Wed Sep 10, 2014 11:09 pm

Do we have a vote count?

I think it's been two days
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 

Post#68 » by Owly » Wed Sep 10, 2014 11:09 pm

RebelWithACause wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
RebelWithACause wrote:...

Spoiler:
I personally would prefer about 10 wings at this point, before even thinking about Moncrief to be honest.

His longevity is mediocre.
Pennbeast spoke about his terrific man defense often. Yet as great as his man defense was his help defense was not nearly as good and help defense is something much more valuable regarding value and impact especially among wing players.
His offense was simplistic, yet effective. His skill set does not strike me as great.
Most of his games I watched were from the 84-85 season, which is his prime/peak and from the eye test I was not that impressed actually (as I am with other wings that are not in yet)

I am surprised how Moncrief ranked so early in the last project (at 53).

Does anybody have some compelling evidence for Moncrief to sway me on this one here?


Spoiler:
Longevity is poor, that's the reason he's not ranked higher. His man defense is probably the all-time best in terms of shutting down an opposing shooter , particularly a jump shooter. If he was playing today, you could be playing Houston and if you put Sid on James Harden, there would be a decent chance that Harden is not a factor in the game. Thus either Dwight has to have a big game or someone like Ariza or Lin has to step up. That's huge if you can do it.

I strongly disagree about the value of man defense v. help defense for wings. For bigs, great help defense is clearly more important, for wings, I would guess that man defense is more key -- especially in the era of ball dominant wings. I don't have RAPM to back me up, but Moncrief led a bunch of top defenses in those 5 years (then Pressey led another top defense after Moncrief went down but Milwaukee couldn't maintain it after that). And, he did it without great big man help. Milwaukee used a center by committee with the likes of good defense but foul prone Alton Lister, and defensive specialist Harvey Catchings platooning with solid but not outstanding offensive scorers like aging Bob Lanier or Randy Breuer. None was that good, but they were adequate. BUT, Nelson made the defense work by taking opponents out of their game plan and Moncrief's ability to shut down an Otis Birdsong or Dennis Johnson was a big part of that.

Finally, offensively, he was a lower volume, more efficient version of Dwyane Wade -- super athletic and virtually impossible to stop from getting an open shot in midrange or driving to the hoop where he was an excellent finisher with good foul draw. He was around .600 ts% on 20ppg several of those 5 years while playing on an offense designed to spread shots round rather than open space for the star. That's impressive offense as well.

If Moncrief had 10 healthy years instead of 5 at the same level of dominance, I'd have around Dwyane Wade's level here though his playoff record was up and down -- one year he led the league in playoff efficiency, the next he had a bad stretch. He shut Birdsong and Dennis Johnson down, but Andrew Toney had a big series. Still, he was more capable of dominating opposing teams defensively than any other 2 I have ever seen - including Jordan (though I might take Jordan for one key game or one key 4th quarter defensively)
.


Longevity: Yes, this is the main knock on him

Prime-strength: I think for those 5 years Moncrief was an All-Star caliber player, but I fail to see right now, how he can be better than that. For example you tend to believe, Moncrief is better than Wade for their 5 best years. I strongly disagree.

Playoffs: On average, his offense dropped immensely, not just a bit, in the Playoffs. So there is even more room to question his offensive capabilites.

Man defense vs Help defense for wings:

I do not have an article or study at hand which shows which is more important for wing defenders.

However, here are the Top10 wing defenders since we have RAPM (Reference: DocMJ spreadsheet)

Battier: 7.30
Artest: 6.87
T. Allen: 6.52
Deng: 6.21
E. Jones: 5.82
G. Wallace: 5.63
D. Christie: 5.47
Bowen: 5.43
Iguodala: 5.36
Kirilenko: 5.17
LeBron: 4.79

This is a list full of extremly good help and off-ball defenders. Obviously, also on-ball, but I would argue the focus here is more on help defense and off ball defensive value.

Anybody can chime in on this matter?

Okay then. Whilst I wouldn't take the position you ascribe to Penbeast
Moncrief is better than Wade for their 5 best years
I would go much further than
I think for those 5 years Moncrief was an All-Star caliber player, but I fail to see right now, how he can be better than that.
. Moncrief was not merely an all-star
Spoiler:
Shooting Guards with a WS/48 season better than Moncrief
Michael Jordan
Tracy McGrady (one outlier year)
Jerry West (some don't consider an SG)
Manu Ginobili (always with limited minutes)
Dwyane Wade
Frank Ramsey (Limited minutes - position designation dubious)

Notable absences:
Kobe Bryant, Clyde Drexler, Sam Jones, David Thompson, George Gervin etc
by PER it's longer
Shooting Guards with a PER season better than Moncrief
Michael Jordan
Dwyane Wade
Tracy McGrady
Kobe Bryant
Allen Iverson
Vince Carter
Jerry West
George Gervin
Manu Ginobili
Clyde Drexler
Brandon Roy
Paul Westphal
David Thompson
Walter Davis
James Harden
Ray Allen
World B. Free
Note the number of volume scorers with defense ranging from overrated by the boxscore (Gervin, Drexler, Iverson) to (probably?) bad (Free, Gervin, Harden). Factor in D properly and take away the overemphasis on scoring and you'll get a shorter list albeit maybe not quite as short as WS/48.

In '83 he gets a serious chunk of the MVP shares, coming 4th as he does in RealGM PotY project.

Off the top of my head the list of best RAPM wing defenders look like guys who mainly made their name man-to-man with a couple of exceptions (Wallace and Kirilenko) and obviously some will be gifted at both. I think it speaks well to Moncrief that the top two guys up there are a very smart man defender and a very physical, harassing man defender, when the impression from Moncrief is that he was both those things.


General quick thoughts responses to other posts: Not sure about where Billups is but peep his numbers versus Isiah's for a starting point on their relative positions. On Barry, you don't have to discount Barry's ABA years that much for being ABA to have issues with prime longevity, just the fact that he wasn't on the court enough in that span (option year, then 35, 52, 59, 80), though the fact that he didn't put in dominant healthy season in the ABA doesn't help. I'd suggest Barry isn't like Wilt '62 in '67 because his team doesn't manage an average offensive rating. So yeah I'm not so high on Barry. He's good but not in consideration right now. On Baylor, Doc was a bit harsh in terms of caracturing what the argument for him would be (pointing out the conventional wisdom on Baylor, at this point, may just as well be "Okay, I see our reasons for going lower on him, his case is mainly about those first 5 years, still, given how highly venerated Baylor was at the time and in most/all GOAT lists since, shouldn't we at least have another look at this point?", rather than "I don't want to look bonkers". Regarding Baylor and primacy devil's advocate, how do we know he should have shot less. I'm inclined to believe it but not sure if I know it.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 

Post#69 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:06 am

Vote: Chris Paul

Y'know, I'll go Paul. It's tough for me. I still think longevity is a significant thing holding Paul back, but I think Paul has a really, really good case over Frazier, the guy who will probably be voted in here.

With the obvious comparison, as much as a love and respect a guy who can thrive in a Triangle-esque offense, that's not my highest level of point guard heaven. I can quibble about things here and there about Paul relative to the very, very top floor generals, but the bottom line, he's on that highest tier.

So prime vs prime I prefer Paul, and he's almost as old as Frazier was when he ceased being relevant. Yes he missed time to injury, but in spite of that things like Win Shares make it basically a tossup even if you don't give any particular emphasis to peak play.

Guy I feel most bad about not voting for: Barry. Maybe next time.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 

Post#70 » by Narigo » Thu Sep 11, 2014 1:09 am

tentative vote for Rick Barry

Tentative votes might count; votes without analysis don't
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 

Post#71 » by SactoKingsFan » Thu Sep 11, 2014 1:22 am

My vote goes to Rick Barry. I think his impressive peak, additional 4-5 high quality/elite seasons, very high BB IQ and carrying/leading Warriors to a title in 75 gives him the edge over Frazier and Baylor, who have short primes and less impressive post prime seasons.

Vote: Rick Barry
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 

Post#72 » by Basketballefan » Thu Sep 11, 2014 1:56 am

JordansBulls wrote:It's weird to see how much Elgin Baylor has fallen off over the years in these.

Well these rankings never come without biases. For or against players. When it comes to Baylor, people will dock him because he didn't win a ring, while guys like Frazier, Barry, Thomas etc did. I'm sure people will try to deny winning bias but it's there for sure.

Mikan going in the top 25 at the expense of guys like Baylor and other great players rubs me the wrong way.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 

Post#73 » by penbeast0 » Thu Sep 11, 2014 2:04 am

VOTE COUNT -- With Colt18's vote, it's Frazier v. Paul for yet another battle of the PGs

Walt Frazier -- penbeast0, FJS, fpliii, tsherkin, Clyde Frazier, batmana

Isiah Thomas -- JordansBulls

Elgin Baylor -- Jim Naismith, trex_8063

Rick Barry -- ronnymac2, SactoKingsFan

Chris Paul -- Doctor MJ. DQuinn1575, colts18

John Havlicek -- Chuck Texas

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 

Post#74 » by colts18 » Thu Sep 11, 2014 2:06 am

Vote Chris Paul

Amazing 6 year peak. I believe he is the greatest player ever who never got serious MVP consideration in his career
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 

Post#75 » by trex_8063 » Thu Sep 11, 2014 2:10 am

ronnymac2 wrote:Vote: Rick Barry

It comes down to Kevin Durant, Rick Barry, Isiah Thomas, Walt Frazier, and Chris Paul.

I need one or two more seasons from KD. I was close to picking him for this spot because the arguments trying to alleviate his longevity disadvantages relative to his competition have made sense to me, but not quite enough against Barry. Durant might have the best peak of anybody left, up there with McGrady, Paul, Barry, Penny Hardaway, and Bill Walton.




Interesting to hear Penny's name among the rest. Personally, I'd place Penny closer to guys like Grant Hill for peak.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 

Post#76 » by Basketballefan » Thu Sep 11, 2014 2:12 am

colts18 wrote:Vote Chris Paul

Amazing 6 year peak. I believe he is the greatest player ever who never got serious MVP consideration in his career

What 6 year peak are you talking about? Paul's peak was 08 or 09 and none of his seasons since have been close to that.

Also he came pretty close to mvp in 08 and has been a legitimate candidate almost every season, so not sure i understand this.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 

Post#77 » by colts18 » Thu Sep 11, 2014 2:12 am

Basketballefan wrote:
colts18 wrote:Vote Chris Paul

Amazing 6 year peak. I believe he is the greatest player ever who never got serious MVP consideration in his career

What 6 year peak are you talking about? Paul's peak was 08 or 09 and none of his seasons since have been close to that.

Also he came pretty close to mvp in 08 and has been a legitimate candidate almost every season, so not sure i understand this.

08-09, 11-14

All of them legitimately great seasons
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 

Post#78 » by Basketballefan » Thu Sep 11, 2014 2:15 am

colts18 wrote:
Basketballefan wrote:
colts18 wrote:Vote Chris Paul

Amazing 6 year peak. I believe he is the greatest player ever who never got serious MVP consideration in his career

What 6 year peak are you talking about? Paul's peak was 08 or 09 and none of his seasons since have been close to that.

Also he came pretty close to mvp in 08 and has been a legitimate candidate almost every season, so not sure i understand this.

08-09, 11-14

All of them legitimately great seasons

Yes, they were and it's all part of his prime, but 08 & 09 are on a different level from his other seasons thus that's his peak.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #28 -- FRAZIER v. PAUL 

Post#79 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Sep 11, 2014 3:42 am

Run-off vote: Frazier

Im just frankly not nearly as high on Chris Paul as most guys here are. Frazier, Kidd, Glove, Zeke all at a minimum should be ahead of him. Great offensive player, no question, but his resume is too short at this point.

He's amazingly fortunate to be in a run-off with Frazier because the longevity issue is much larger against some of his other competition both for this spot overall and among PGs specifically and even Frazier has nearly 50% more RS minutes and 100% more PS minutes.

I'll take Frazier for longevity, playoff performance advantage, and an outstanding all-around game.
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RealGM Top 100 List #28 -- FRAZIER v. PAUL 

Post#80 » by RSCD3_ » Thu Sep 11, 2014 3:49 am

vote: Frazier

Explanation

Spoiler:
His peak was very high and he had a lot more offensive impact than Scottie as he was a better facilitator and more efficient scorer capable of being the number 1 offensive option on a contending team.


I also like his greater size and consider him on the level of a Gary Payton defensively which I consider Paul to be a tier or two lower on that end. I have a feeling his defense would translate just fine.

His offense was also ahead of his time and he was a pg capable of volume scoring in the pre hand checking rules, which was quite rare compared to now.

Without the benefit of a three point line he was able to score in congested paint, with more spacing and less hand checking he could penetrate and with his short/normal midrange jump shot that offenses give up.




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I came here to do two things: get lost and slice **** up & I'm all out of directions.

Butler removing rearview mirror in his car as a symbol to never look back

Peja Stojakovic wrote:Jimmy butler, with no regard for human life

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