Chuck Texas wrote:Obviously I understand this is a team accomplishment and that there are other factors besides Kidd in play in each one. But the same is true of Nash and the ortg stuff. Plus this much smoke....
Ehh, let's look at these.
93-94 Mavs (pre-Kidd) 13-69
94-95 Mavs (with Kidd) 36-46
94: Quinn Buckner coaching, worst offense in the league, 4th-worst defense, -8.19 SRS. Kidd comes in as a rookie. Dick Motta takes over. Offense jumps to 15th out of 27. Defense improves to 21st. Kidd plays 33.8 mpg. Jim Jackson plays less (51 GP bc of the ankle), Fat Lever retires. They played like +0.3 possessions faster, but went from 18th in pace to 6th.
Jackson was having a phenomenal season; Mashburn had a much better second season than his rookie year in 04, when he was also a feature offensive player on that team. Clearly, the offensive improvement was larger than the defensive, which is actually atypical of Kidd-run teams, but he was definitely involved, despite his customarily poor individual scoring.
Having a not-terrible coach probably had the largest impact beyond Mashburn having a full season under his belt, but Kidd's passing can't be ignored too much, since he wasn't much LESS efficient than some of the offensive weapons from the previous season, and his passing very likely enabled Jackson and Mash at least a little. But there's a convergence of factors there worth considering.
95-96 Mavs (Kidd's final full year) 26-56
97-98 Mavs (first full year no Kidd) 20-62
Interesting point, the offense slacked off again in 96 compared to 95, team ORTG sliding by about -1.6 and dropping them down to 19th. Mash barely played and George McCloud was the stand-in. JJ was back. McCloud was actually more efficient than Mash and Jackson had a far better season than his 94 year. Kidd was himself playing and shooting a lot more. Defense was 25th of 29.
96-97 Mavs (8-14 with Kidd, 16-44, no Kidd)
Jim Cleamons coaching, not Dick Motta. 2nd-worst offense in the league. 46 GP from Jim Jackson, 56 GP and 36 GS from Michael Finley. 37 GP from Mash (21 GS). 41 GP from McCloud.
Looking at roster presence, it's kind of hard to pull much of consequence from that particular season given how little consistency they had in their roster, especially with a coaching change on top of that. They were 16-44 without Kidd and then 20-62 in a full season without him, but in 98...
Cleamons gives up after a 4-12 start and they go 16-50 under Don Nelson.
They are the 3rd-worst O in the league, and 24th of 29 on D. Their team DRTG of 107.2 is 4 points better than it was in Kidd's last full season.
No Mash, no JJ, no McCloud. 52 games of Dennis Scott, a full season of Finley. Only two guys started more than 54 games. Only 4 guys PLAYED more than 67 games (Finley, AC Green, Khalid Reeves and Hubert Davis).
Again, hard to evaluate Kidd's impact given the total crap nature of the roster. This is one of those "DEAN GARRETT!!!" kind of moments, you know? We talk about Minnesota's supporting casts, but the mid/late-90s Mavericks were bloody freaking terrible. There was no one of consequence on that team besides Finley, and he was decent, but he was also a 52.2% TS / 107 ORTG player in a league environment of 52.4% TS and 105 ORTG. A marginally above-average volume scorer on a team plagued with roster inconsistency is never going to compare to a more balanced team with better coaching. And the weird bit is that Nelson was actually a good RS offensive coach, I mean we've seen that in multiple locations. Before he went stupid/senile in the 2000s, he was innovative, daring, experimental, I mean he was pretty creative at drawing out the best in his teams. And he got nothing out of those guys, because he had no consistency or talent with which to work.
So again, not a great point of comparison.
95-96 Suns(No Kidd) 41-41
96-97 Suns( 17-32 no Kidd, 23-10 with Kidd)
97-98 Suns (first full year with Kidd) 56-26
95-96, they were the 7th-best offense in the league without Kidd, and 23rd on D. They went 27-22 under Cotton Fitzsimmons after he took over from Westphal (under whom they were 14-19), so their final record is a tad misleading.
Keep in mind that they lost Charles Barkley after the 96 season, he went to the Rockets, and that KJ was falling apart (56 GP that year, too), and Barkley himself played only 71 games, while they began to use more of Michael Finley.
In 97, they open up 0-8 under Fitzsimmons and then go 40-34 under Danny Ainge. 6th best offense, 20th-best defense. Not a ton different than the year before, similar final record. KJ plays 70 games (39-31), Kidd plays 33 and starts 23 (23-10, including an 11-game winning streak). KJ played the whole winning streak as well, and of course Manning was healthy, as was Wesley Person. That team had talent, and with KJ posting 20/9 on 63% TS / 124 ORTG, they could afford to bring Kidd off of the bench as a secondary guard, which worked wonders. Hell, even Steve Nash played 65 games for that team, heh, and Sam Cassell 22.
Then we go to 98. Big season, right? Big win increase.
Well, they added 15/7.5 from Antonio McDyess for the whole season, Nash got better, KG played only 50 games, but they added Clifford Robinson as well. Two major frontcourt additions, a huge defensive improvement and then a theoretical offensive improvement to 6th (but they actually regressed in team ORTG compared to the previous season, from 109.3 to 107.4).
So again, it's very difficult to isolate Kidd's particular impact that year as a result of those additions. McDyess was a 57.1% TS player that year, and of course would explode in Denver the year after, make the AS team in 01 and then his body gave out and he was never the same guy. Uncle Cliffy was an excellent defender and Nash ended up playing backup to Kidd while shooting 41.5% from 3 and making a nuisance of himself for 22 mpg. But again, you see that the team took a backwards step on O to take a forwards step on D, and Kidd wasn't the only player who played solid (or better) defense who'd been added to that team. That Suns team was top 10 in defensive rebounding and 6th in defensive TOV%, and both McDyess and Robinson played a large role in that shift. Kidd did as well, of course, but it remains food for thought and once again, an example of major roster shifts explaining more of the changes in team success/performance than simply the addition or subtraction of Kidd from that squad.
00-01 Suns (with Kidd) 51-31
01-02 Suns (no Kidd) 36-46
Yup. But again, let's look at that team more closely:
01: 22nd offense, 2nd on defense, Scott Skiles coaching. Known for his ability to drag defense out of his teams.
That team had Shawn Marion and Clifford Robinson as well, both playing a lot of games, not just Kidd.
I won't lampoon Kidd too badly for putting up numbers on a crap squad (offensively speaking only, of course), but that is what was happening. In his defense, I can understand why they weren't a really GOOD offense, though: they didn't have a lot of shooters, Googs was injured, Elie missed games and while Cliffy was a good 3pt shooter for a 4, he didn't do a lot else particularly well on offense. Kidd did not have the same effect on Marion as did Nash and Rodney Rogers was past his prime (and past his shooting touch, no less).
It's kind of hard to overlook that Kidd had Marion (a note defensive force) and Clifford Robinson (who was All-Defensive 2nd Team in both 2000 and 2002) on his squad that season while they played that well, while playing under a coach noted for his defensive style. Kidd clearly fit in well, and was part of their success, but he was also not contributing much to the success of their offense despite his raw averages and there were enough other factors on that team that cooperate to the detriment of Kidd's credit for the team's success.
Now 2002. Skiles gives way to Frank Johnson after starting 25-26, and Johnson promptly goes 11-20. They go from a 2nd-ranked 98 DRTG to a 12th-ranked 104 and they are 13th on offense (moving from 100.3 with Kidd to 103.3 without him). They actually slow down a little from 93.1 (6th in the league) to 91.4 (10th). Kidd and Uncle Cliffy depart, Kidd to New Jersey, Cliff to Detroit. They have no bench to speak of.
Marion's there, Marbury's there. Penny plays 80 games, starting 55, but is a shell of himself offensively and not especially good on D either. Googs, Rodney, Voskhul... their frontcourt is riddled with injuries or weak players, etc. They don't really have much to work with.
This one looks pretty favorable for Kidd in the sense that he was clearly exerting a palpable defensive force on the team, even if he was being aided by another All-Defensive player, and clearly the Suns didn't have the ability to ramp up the offense enough to cover up their defensive shortcomings, though again, some of that was related to injuries and old guys. They did give Majerle a final season send-off, Googs played half of the season, they didn't have Nash as their backup guard any longer and Penny sucked. The coaching change didn't help either.
We all know Kidd is a good defender, and that his mixture of turnover generation, defensive rebounding and his versatility as far as guarding the one or the two make him a valuable defender, so he was clearly a big part of that equation, but there remain other factors in play. You'll notice that the team was still nearly at .500 before Frank Johnson took over, which is still a drop-off, but one of lesser note when you consider that they lost their bench guard, an All-D stretch big AND their point guard.
00-01 Nets (no Kidd) 26-56
01-02 Nets (with Kidd) 52-30
This is the bad one, and not for the counter-Kidd argument.
The 01 Nets were riddled with injuries. Kerry Kittles didn't play at all, then came back to give Kidd 82 games of 40.5% 3pt shooting in 2002. They added Richard Jefferson after this season. Keith Van Horn played 49 games in 01, then 81 in 2002. Kenyon Martin, 68 as a rookie, then 73 in 2002. Marbury himself missed 15 games. They added Todd MacCulloch after the 01 season.
Now, in a mirror image of the Phoenix situation, the Nets went from 23rd on defense at 105.5 to 1st on defense at 99.5. They played in an absolutely ABYSMAL Eastern Conference (and Atlantic Division), but Kidd was again impacting the team strongly. MacCulloch and Martin's shot-blocking definitely helped a lot, and the team as a whole generated a lot of turnovers (Kittles, again, was fairly helpful here himself, but so were Martin, Van Horn, etc all in conjunction). Kidd clearly captained this team, and they averaged roughly a -5.0 defense from 02 through 04, tailed off in 05 and 06 and then dropped off of a cliff thereafter... which aligns rather well with Kenyon Martin's trip to Denver, as well as the rules changes (though they were still -3.0 to -3.8 in 05 and 06).
This one's a fuzzier one, because again, there was a huge difference in health and the usual ton of roster turnover compared to the previous season, all of which works to obfuscate individual player impact.
06-07 Nets (last full year with Kidd) 41-41
07-08 Nets (22-29 with Kidd, 12-17 no Kidd)
08-09 Nets (no Kidd) 34-48
Mmmm. The 09 Nets lost Richard Jefferson, relied on 69 games of volume scoring from Devin Harris, were 4.3 points per 100 possessions better on offense than they were the previous season but were around 2 points per 100 possessions worse on defense. They ended up with the same record as the season before. I know you showed the with/without Kidd record situation, but again, you're looking at a minimal difference (again, 35.4 wins versus 34 wins, not really a substantive difference), and that casts a different light on things than the presentation of the 29 games they played without Kidd.
22-29 with Kidd in 2008 is equivalent to a 35-win season, so what you showed is that while they worsened defensively, because they improved dramatically (and more so than than tailed off on the defensive end), they were basically the same caliber of team in the full season without him. The trade obviously affected things, but that isn't unusual with mid-season trades, especially those involving core players.
Of course, the team was 23-29 before the trade, 11-19 after the trade, so it really works out to the team WITH Kidd was more like a 37-win team and the 09 rendition was a 34-win squad, but again, Harris was injured and Jefferson buggered off to the Bucks, so there are some issues with a direct record analysis anyway.
Context is important there. We can see that Kidd as a defensive guard is a pretty significant player, even for a point, but there are huge and consistent issues of health and roster turnover in each of those major turnarounds that you're discussing.