Jackie M - Rondo wants out?

[SMTBSI]

Edit - meaning I would agree with what you are saying here except it is 42% of 2014-2015's BRI, since it is the previous year's value.

But unfortunately that's not how it works. The cbafaq clearly states that both the salary cap, and the cap for the purposes of determining max salary, are based on projected BRI, not the previous year's BRI.

They use a different cap calculation to determine the maximum salaries, which is based on 42.14% of projected BRI rather than 44.74%.

EDIT: Further reference:

13. How is the salary cap set each year?

Starting in 2012-13 the salary cap is calculated based on projected amounts for Basketball Related Income (BRI) and benefits for the upcoming season. The projected BRI is a matter of negotiation between the league and players association. Each year the sides meet to try to agree on an amount. If they cannot agree before the end of the July Moratorium, they instead use:

- The set amount for national broadcast rights (which is determined in advance), plus
- The BRI for the previous season (other than national broadcast rights), increased by 4.5%.

[165bows]

Edit - meaning I would agree with what you are saying here except it is 42% of 2014-2015's BRI, since it is the previous year's value.

But unfortunately that's not how it works. The cbafaq clearly states that both the salary cap, and the cap for the purposes of determining max salary, are based on projected BRI, not the previous year's BRI.

They use a different cap calculation to determine the maximum salaries, which is based on 42.14% of projected BRI rather than 44.74%.

EDIT: Further reference:

13. How is the salary cap set each year?

Starting in 2012-13 the salary cap is calculated based on projected amounts for Basketball Related Income (BRI) and benefits for the upcoming season. The projected BRI is a matter of negotiation between the league and players association. Each year the sides meet to try to agree on an amount. If they cannot agree before the end of the July Moratorium, they instead use:

- The set amount for national broadcast rights (which is determined in advance), plus
- The BRI for the previous season (other than national broadcast rights), increased by 4.5%.

You are actually right about a lot of this but you are just missing that the current TV deal doesn't end until 2016, which I can only assume is after the season 2015-16 season, not Jan. 1 2016. That's why I was disagreeing with your estimates of large increases, because of the timing.

So it will go up significantly, but just not in a time frame that effects Rondo (unless he angles a one year deal, which is a real possibility for a lot of these guys that are in this time frame).

You can see the league has actually made less than the projections at this point, not more.

[SMTBSI]

You are actually right about a lot of this but you are just missing that the current TV deal doesn't end until 2016, which I can only assume is after the season 2015-16 season, not Jan. 1 2016. That's why I was disagreeing with your estimates of large increases, because of the timing.

Ah. Yes, I think you're right about the timeframe. I thought I had read that this was all going down next summer, not two summers out. Match point: 165Bows.

So it will go up significantly, but just not in a time frame that effects Rondo (unless he angles a one year deal, which is a real possibility for a lot of these guys that are in this time frame).

That complicates matters. This could all be academic; if he doesn't go out this year and play like a max player, and he knows it, then there's no time constraint on him signing for a lesser deal. But, as much as we want him back for cheap, we also want him to play like a max player.

That makes it a tougher decision for him too, especially if he does play very well: with his knee, is he willing to go for a one year deal and risk losing out on potentially 100mil+ if he reinjures it?

A lot of moving parts.

[165bows]

You are actually right about a lot of this but you are just missing that the current TV deal doesn't end until 2016, which I can only assume is after the season 2015-16 season, not Jan. 1 2016. That's why I was disagreeing with your estimates of large increases, because of the timing.

Ah. Yes, I think you're right about the timeframe. I thought I had read that this was all going down next summer, not two summers out. Match point: 165Bows.

So it will go up significantly, but just not in a time frame that effects Rondo (unless he angles a one year deal, which is a real possibility for a lot of these guys that are in this time frame).

That complicates matters. This could all be academic; if he doesn't go out this year and play like a max player, and he knows it, then there's no time constraint on him signing for a lesser deal. But, as much as we want him back for cheap, we also want him to play like a max player.

That makes it a tougher decision for him too, especially if he does play very well: with his knee, is he willing to go for a one year deal and risk losing out on potentially 100mil+ if he reinjures it?

A lot of moving parts.

No you were actually right about most of the details next time I can't figure something out I will just call on you instead of spending time on it figuring it out.

This stuff though is why I've never been too wound up about the team making a mistake and overspending on rondo, they have this stuff figured out.

It's no accident that they have solid cap space and four draft picks available next summer, these guys I think are doing diligence on these details.

Edit - that's also why I think he may indeed choose to sign here long term. He sees this team has a plan that is being better executed than 'hey let's sign a bunch of guys with cap space and win trophies!' that's pretty much going on in the glamor markets right now.

[SMTBSI]

No you were actually right about most of the details next time I can't figure something out I will just call on you instead of spending time on it figuring it out.

Oh, I know I was right about the max tier stuff re: Parsons and Hayward and eligibility issues, and BRI calculations, etc. (And I'm humble, too!)

But the conversation started out trying to determine what Rondo's 2015-2016 max would be, and, due to my misconception about when the new tv deal kicks in, your estimate turns out to be much closer to the mark than mine.

So I'll claim victory on a couple of the tangent discussions, but you got the main one.

(Anyway, this is one I'm happy to lose. I'd been assuming Rondo's max would start at 22-23mil. 18mil or so is somewhat less dire.)

This stuff though is why I've never been too wound up about the team making a mistake and overspending on rondo, they have this stuff figured out.

It's no accident that they have solid cap space and four draft picks available next summer, these guys I think are doing diligence on these details.

Until demonstrated otherwise, my hope is that Rondo plays like a clear max player this year and we have no qualms whatsoever about paying him accordingly. It just doesn't feel right to hope that he underperforms so that we can keep him for cheap. You should want your guys to be max-worthy, shouldn't you?

[SMTBSI]

But the conversation started out trying to determine what Rondo's 2015-2016 max would be, and, due to my misconception about when the new tv deal kicks in, your estimate turns out to be much closer to the mark than mine.

Anyway, to put a punctuation mark on the whole thing:

Assuming they don't do any of that "smoothing" they were talking about, where they spread the impact of the new tv deal over several years, then, using those earlier projections of a 66.5mil cap for 2015-2016, you're looking at something very roughly like 18.5mil with 7.5% raises, or approx. 5/106.


Meaning, after all of that, Captain_Caveman was the closest.

[Captain_Caveman]

Bows, brought it up because I think Tenbomber was a little unclear on it. A common misunderstanding, but one central to the conversation. Rondo will not be taking the extension like Parker this offseason.

As to the numbers, yeah, ballparked... sorta. Salary cap for 2015-16 currently estimated to be $66.5m. 30% of that is $19.95m starting salary in 2015-16. With annual raises, that's about $21-22m a year depending on who offers him the contract and for how many years. Therefore, I do think it is accurate for me to say he's looking at up to 4/80-85m or even 5yr/105-110 next summer.

As to the cap increase... yes, currently slated to take place entirely in summer of 2016.

That comes into play in two ways. #1, it makes giving him $20m+ a year in 2015 more palatable for more teams in light of increased salaries a year later. #2, it is possible that they could "smooth" that potential $16m increase over the course of multiple offseasons, possibly including the next one, which would drive up his potential ceiling as a FA. There has been discussion about smoothing, I have read. No idea if that might include 2015, but worth considering.

[Captain_Caveman]

But the conversation started out trying to determine what Rondo's 2015-2016 max would be, and, due to my misconception about when the new tv deal kicks in, your estimate turns out to be much closer to the mark than mine.

Anyway, to put a punctuation mark on the whole thing:

Assuming they don't do any of that "smoothing" they were talking about, where they spread the impact of the new tv deal over several years, then, using those earlier projections of a 66.5mil cap for 2015-2016, you're looking at something very roughly like 18.5mil with 7.5% raises, or approx. 5/106.


Meaning, after all of that, Captain_Caveman was the closest.

Thank you, and good discussion all around. I went up to 5/110m because the current 2015 cap number is just a projection. Backing up a bit, I don't think he will get that, it's just his ceiling in the market. He might get it, given the future cap jump, but my point was really just that he is almost certain to get a lot more than the 3/45m or so that we can offer him now in an extension.

[GuyClinch]

That complicates matters. This could all be academic; if he doesn't go out this year and play like a max player, and he knows it, then there's no time constraint on him signing for a lesser deal. But, as much as we want him back for cheap, we also want him to play like a max player.

What would "MAX" Rondo look like? That's the question I have.. Would it be like 2012-2013 regular season Rondo? Or does it have to be like 'best' playoff Rondo?

The thing is - and this is me - I wouldn't pay a guy max salary who doesn't average more then 15ppg or more then 10rpg a game max salary unless he was blocking a ton of shots. Assists are just not that valuable. On teams were one guy has a lot of assists - sometimes the other players have few. I fail to see how this is so great. Likewise some of the very best teams of the decade offensively have had very few assists.. (Dallas for example)..

If the C's had like a top 5 offense - and Rondo was whipping out 12 assists per game - then maybe he would deserve the credit. But in general assists are largely a function of ball domination. With Rondo hurt often Pierce assist totals would jump up - and that's because he got to dominate the ball.

Max salary guys should be among the best players in the NBA - ideally top 5. Winning isn't really about paying guys what they demand. Its about paying guys less then they would command on the open market. The best way to do that is to get guys that on the free market would make way more then the salary cap.. The second best way is to get guys that WILL be making max when their contract runs out.

With Rondo there is just a ton of opportunity to go wrong - and in my mind virtually no opportunity to go right.

#1) Joe Johnson scenario - guy plays good enough on the open market to demand max - and gets it. But lacks to the potential to be a 'super max' player. This happens very often around the league to veteran players who get 'overpayed'. They aren't truly overpayed - in reality guys like Jordan and Lebron James and Larry Bird were vastly underpayed at max. The max is a salary cap ceiling.

#2) Illgaskus, Marbury scenario - guys gets paid a lot (near max - max etc) but gets hurt or doesn't live up to his billing.

#3) JAG scenario (Green) player comes in plays decent and gets decent but below max salary.

None of those possibilities are really anything to get excited about. The only ones we care about from a team building scenario.

4) Lebron James scenario - guy gets paid max and dominates the league. (Best case in the Love scenario)

5) Anthony Davis scenario - guy who is not yet max dominates the league.

That's what we should be shooting for..If I was Ainge I'd just move on at let the Joe Johnson scenario play out..unless Rondo shocks me at plays like the super max guy like he did in a FEW playoff series on a regular basis.

[SMTBSI]

As to the numbers, yeah, ballparked... sorta. Salary cap for 2015-16 currently estimated to be $66.5m. 30% of that is $19.95m starting salary in 2015-16. With annual raises, that's about $21-22m a year depending on who offers him the contract and for how many years. Therefore, I do think it is accurate for me to say he's looking at up to 4/80-85m or even 5yr/105-110 next summer.

Actually Caveman, you're overestimating his year one salary, but underestimating the impact of the yearly raises.

Remember that the 30% max is not calculated using the actual salary cap, so you can't just multiply 66.5 by 0.3. This is the important part that most overlook (2nd footnote):

They use a different cap calculation to determine the maximum salaries, which is based on 42.14% of projected BRI rather than 44.74%. In 2005 the sides negotiated a different formula for setting the salary cap but not maximum salaries, so the two became decoupled, and this continued in the 2011 agreement. For this reason the maximum salaries are not actually 25%, 30% or 35% of the cap, and instead are a slightly lower amount.

The problem I have is that every time I attempt to calculate the max by reverse engineering the projected BRI, using Coon's numbers, I always come out a few 100k too high. If you perform the operation on the 2014-2015 numbers ((63.065 / 0.4474) * 0.4214 * 0.3 ~= 17.82mil), you come out about 125k too high. (Also about 100k for the 0-6 year figures and ~150k for the 10+ year figures.)

So, a strict calcuation of the projected 30% max for 2015-2016, using exactly the numbers Coon gives us, would look like this:

(66.5 / 0.4474) * 0.4214 * 0.3 ~= 18.79

Since every time I run this operation I come out a tiny bit too high, I rounded down to 18.5 for the first year. 18.65 might have been safer.


Now, generally, a players total salary for a five year bird rights contract will be 15% over five times their year-one salary (or 5.75 times their year one salary). The reason this is so is because the yearly 7.5% raises are based on the first year salary only - they don't get bigger and bigger every year.

So if a player signed a five year contract starting at 1mil, with yearly 7.5% raises, it looks like this:

1
1.075
1.15
1.225
1.3

For a total of $5.75mil.

So if we're starting Rondo at $19.95mil, you're actually looking at $114.7125mil over the life of the deal.

If we're starting him at $18.65mil, you're looking at 18.65 * 5.75, or $107.2375. $18.79 yields $108.0425.

So, you were spot on, just not quite for the right reasons.

[SMTBSI]

What would "MAX" Rondo look like? That's the question I have.. Would it be like 2012-2013 regular season Rondo? Or does it have to be like 'best' playoff Rondo?

...

unless Rondo shocks me at plays like the super max guy like he did in a FEW playoff series on a regular basis.

"Best" playoff Rondo, or near to it. And I acknowledge that there's just about no chance he starts doing that on a regular basis. I was just saying that I'm going to continue to hope he puts it all together until he's no longer on the team - it's better than hoping he underperforms so that we can retain him for cheap. I'll crunch lots of numbers and enjoy it because I'm sick that way, but as often as not I'll discuss from a fan perspective, not that of an analyst.

Basically, regardless of my expectations, it is my hope that he blows up this year, so that we, as fans, don't even have to be troubled any more about how much he's worth.


And, in the service of obstinance, I will say this:

1.) We know he can play at that level. We've seen it. It wasn't a dream.
2.) We haven't really seen him as the man yet. In my personal opinion, he knew exactly what he was doing and was leading the tank brigade after he came back last year. I could be dead wrong on this, but it seemed obvious to me at the time.

[Captain_Caveman]

As to the numbers, yeah, ballparked... sorta. Salary cap for 2015-16 currently estimated to be $66.5m. 30% of that is $19.95m starting salary in 2015-16. With annual raises, that's about $21-22m a year depending on who offers him the contract and for how many years. Therefore, I do think it is accurate for me to say he's looking at up to 4/80-85m or even 5yr/105-110 next summer.

Actually Caveman, you're overestimating his year one salary, but underestimating the impact of the yearly raises.

Remember that the 30% max is not calculated using the actual salary cap, so you can't just multiply 66.5 by 0.3. This is the important part that most overlook (2nd footnote):

They use a different cap calculation to determine the maximum salaries, which is based on 42.14% of projected BRI rather than 44.74%. In 2005 the sides negotiated a different formula for setting the salary cap but not maximum salaries, so the two became decoupled, and this continued in the 2011 agreement. For this reason the maximum salaries are not actually 25%, 30% or 35% of the cap, and instead are a slightly lower amount.

The problem I have is that every time I attempt to calculate the max by reverse engineering the projected BRI, using Coon's numbers, I always come out a few 100k too high. If you perform the operation on the 2014-2015 numbers ((63.065 / 0.4474) * 0.4214 * 0.3 ~= 17.82mil), you come out about 125k too high. (Also about 100k for the 0-6 year figures and ~150k for the 10+ year figures.)

So, a strict calcuation of the projected 30% max for 2015-2016, using exactly the numbers Coon gives us, would look like this:

(66.5 / 0.4474) * 0.4214 * 0.3 ~= 18.79

Since every time I run this operation I come out a tiny bit too high, I rounded down to 18.5 for the first year. 18.65 might have been safer.


Now, generally, a players total salary for a five year bird rights contract will be 15% over five times their year-one salary (or 5.75 times their year one salary). The reason this is so is because the yearly 7.5% raises are based on the first year salary only - they don't get bigger and bigger every year.

So if a player signed a five year contract starting at 1mil, with yearly 7.5% raises, it looks like this:

1
1.075
1.15
1.225
1.3

For a total of $5.75mil.

So if we're starting Rondo at $19.95mil, you're actually looking at $114.7125mil over the life of the deal.

If we're starting him at $18.65mil, you're looking at 18.65 * 5.75, or $107.2375. $18.79 yields $108.0425.

So, you were spot on, just not quite for the right reasons.

That's cool. I'm pretty good with the cap, but don't really care to cross every t or dot every i. Once I am with a couple million, close enough! Much more interested by the larger context of how it all fits in than working out the minutiae. Like I said, it was an educated ballpark.

P.S. I do grasp the non-compounded aspect of the raises.

[baubo]

The problem I have is that every time I attempt to calculate the max by reverse engineering the projected BRI, using Coon's numbers, I always come out a few 100k too high. If you perform the operation on the 2014-2015 numbers ((63.065 / 0.4474) * 0.4214 * 0.3 ~= 17.82mil), you come out about 125k too high. (Also about 100k for the 0-6 year figures and ~150k for the 10+ year figures.)

As someone who did the same thing myself, I can only attribute the difference based on this. Unfortunately, I'm not familiar enough in terms of the legal language to be certain of this. But the numbers sort of match.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q20

[GuyClinch]

1.) We know he can play at that level. We've seen it. It wasn't a dream.
2.) We haven't really seen him as the man yet. In my personal opinion, he knew exactly what he was doing and was leading the tank brigade after he came back last year. I could be dead wrong on this, but it seemed obvious to me at the time.

Rondo has been inconsistent in the playoffs - and I think we will get more of that in the regular season - with his average numbers being just like normal - maybe a little better. I'd expect 14 points 5 rebounds and 10 assists..

Do not forget that Rondo didn't just turn it on for an entire playoff run - he was very inconsistent from series to series. He looked all world against the Cavs for example but like a jag vs. the Lakers. Rondo seems to take what other teams will give him rather then force the action as much as other stars. That's fine but its not really max salary stuff..

[SMTBSI]

As someone who did the same thing myself, I can only attribute the difference based on this. Unfortunately, I'm not familiar enough in terms of the legal language to be certain of this. But the numbers sort of match.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q20

Hm, that's a good lead, thanks.

I'm bushed and will have to go over it more later, but a quick read suggests to me that the escrow system is not likely to be the culprit. Every player has the same flat 10% of their salary put in escrow, and the amount kept/returned is not determined until after the season is over. It doesn't seem that it would have any bearing on the starting terms of a contract.

That 1% of BRI that comes out of the player's share that goes to post-career benefits seems possibly related, but now I've opened up a whole new can of worms for myself wondering where the 44.74% value comes from to determine the salary cap. 44.74 + 1 is far short of their guaranteed 50% of BRI. Whither the other 4.26%??? (I can see unlikely performance bonuses and all sorts of other odd things factoring in here somewhere along the line.)

My head hurts. Time to go to bed.


EDIT: Ugh. It just dawned on me that it's a soft cap. They certainly have to factor in expectations of how much team's salary will collectively exceed the cap*30.

[SMTBSI]

Rondo has been inconsistent in the playoffs - and I think we will get more of that in the regular season - with his average numbers being just like normal - maybe a little better. I'd expect 14 points 5 rebounds and 10 assists..

Do not forget that Rondo didn't just turn it on for an entire playoff run - he was very inconsistent from series to series. He looked all world against the Cavs for example but like a jag vs. the Lakers. Rondo seems to take what other teams will give him rather then force the action as much as other stars. That's fine but its not really max salary stuff..

GuyClinch, this isn't something I'm going to contest you on, I couldn't possibly. I know all too well that Rondo Prime is highly elusive. I was not making any kind of argument that he's likely to find that level permanently.

I was simply saying that the fan in me chooses to continue to hope for it, compared to the alternatives. That it would be nice if he removed all uncertainty from our heads as to whether or not we wanted to retain him.

[165bows]

As someone who did the same thing myself, I can only attribute the difference based on this. Unfortunately, I'm not familiar enough in terms of the legal language to be certain of this. But the numbers sort of match.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q20

Hm, that's a good lead, thanks.

I'm bushed and will have to go over it more later, but a quick read suggests to me that the escrow system is not likely to be the culprit. Every player has the same flat 10% of their salary put in escrow, and the amount kept/returned is not determined until after the season is over. It doesn't seem that it would have any bearing on the starting terms of a contract.

That 1% of BRI that comes out of the player's share that goes to post-career benefits seems possibly related, but now I've opened up a whole new can of worms for myself wondering where the 44.74% value comes from to determine the salary cap. 44.74 + 1 is far short of their guaranteed 50% of BRI. Whither the other 4.26%??? (I can see unlikely performance bonuses and all sorts of other odd things factoring in here somewhere along the line.)

My head hurts. Time to go to bed.


EDIT: Ugh. It just dawned on me that it's a soft cap. They certainly have to factor in expectations of how much team's salary will collectively exceed the cap*30.

I would suggest just using Coon's published max value figures, then for future years just increase it by the percentage of the most accurate reported cap increase. You'll note I came up with the exact same max figure for Hayward as you did for Parson's, but I just simply looked it up online and cross-checked with the published salary.

Like I said, this very rarely steers me wrong. With Rondo I was just looking at this summer's numbers instead of next, as my brain was having a hard time comprehending that we are practically one foot in 2015 already.

[Fidel Sarcasmo]

this new article from this morning is perporting that Brad Stevens still thinks rajon is still a big part of the Celtics future.
http://www.berkshireeagle.com/sports/ci_26538668/celtics-coach-brad-stevens-rondo-big-part-what

[ILC]

Danny Ainge: Rajon Rondo not trade bait

http://www.telegram.com/article/2014092 ... 009/SPORTS

WORCESTER — Wherever Danny Ainge goes, people ask him if he's going to trade Celtics captain Rajon Rondo. Sunday night was no exception. Ainge spoke about his life on and off the court at the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints on Chester Street and a member of the congregation asked the Celtics president of basketball operations if he plans to deal his star point guard.

Ainge used to be a Mormon bishop and now he's a high councilor of the Boston stake (region) which includes Worcester so he had to tell the truth, right?

"The truthful answer is I really don't know," Ainge insisted. "I have no intention. I'm not trying to trade Rondo, but because he's a free agent this summer, he assured me that he wants to stay in Boston. We'd love to keep him in Boston."

[truth18]

With both forms of football back in full force, I'm choosing to ignore Rondo related stuff and focus on BVB/Patriots. Ill get back to being miserable about our future when the season starts.