Eduardo's Offseason Preview - Chicago Bulls

[Hero]

60-22 ?

Yeah, not seeing it.

More like 55 wins if they are healthy.

[Willarmm]

He is a facilitator more than a creator. Maybe we are getting into semantics, but it was a problem years ago back when Rose was healthy, and Chicago has not done anything to address their lack of creators.

No, they have. You're confusing "creator" with "dribble penetrator." From 2011 to now, Noah has improved his high post passing by leaps and bounds. Gasol has been a guy for years now that you can run your offense through plenty of times down the floor in the high or low post with his ability to shoot, score on the low block and pass. You've got Rose who can get into the lane at will. In 2011, the last time Rose was in the playoffs for more than one game, you literally only had Rose with Boozer getting a few looks on the low block which ALWAYS ended up in a face-up jumper. That's not even mentioning Taj's improved post-game from last year, although he's not a good passer from the post at all.

We don't have a lot of guys that'll break you down off the dribble, but then again, the Spurs didn't either. When you think about dribble penetrators on their team, you only really think about Parker and maybe Ginobili. The Bulls don't have the breadth of offensive talent the Spurs did but they'll create their shots through crisp ball and player movement which is the more effective means of offense if done right. They won't be elite but they've got some potential to scratch the top 10 in efficiency if things come together well and guys stay pretty healthy.

I agree with 90% of what you said apart from the spurs reference. That team passes better than any other team I have ever seen and I fully expect the bulls to rely on the slashing of their guards and high low passing from Gasol/Noah. Not necessarily the focus on ball swinging and three point shooting like the spurs. The cavs and bulls will have battles in the ECF, it'll just come down to who plays their strengths better.

[rockersdash]

The hype around this team is unreal.
I won't believe it until I see them do well in the playoffs where all the opponent needs to do is focus on Rose and the bulls are stopped. Pau needs to have a major revival if they want to go deep in the playoffs.

[Tave]

The Bulls won more games than they realistically should have last year out of spite. 48-wins is not a good base-level to project this year's improvement.

55-wins would be a great finish for CHI and require Rose to stay healthy and contribute a lot. 60-wins isn't out of the question, but I can't put them there without first seeing Rose return to pre-injury form. Compared to the prior 60-win squads, I think Chicago will miss Deng and not-yet-a-corpse-Boozer more than they gain from Pau, who still has a lot of ball in him but doesn't fit well with Noah.

The X-factor for the season is McDermott, he has enough years in college and off-ball skills to pose an immediate threat, although he's likely a year or two out (see Curry). Then again Doug gets the benefit of starting off on a good squad, and physically is a grown man.

[sca]

62 wins is not that unrealistic IMO, considering how hard they usually play in the RS. But it all depends on Rose. I don't think Eduardo is way off with his prediction here.

[ingvald]

The hype around this team is unreal.
I won't believe it until I see them do well in the playoffs where all the opponent needs to do is focus on Rose and the bulls are stopped. Pau needs to have a major revival if they want to go deep in the playoffs.

I agree that regular season wins is not the same as playoff success. Thibs has had the Bulls going all-out for regular season so a high regular season win total- if the team is healthy- isn't a crazy notion. Again, they won 48 games last year with a roster that lost two All Stars. They had a deep playoff run the previous year despite a depleted roster as well.

But you are totally correct that even winning 62 games doesn't mean they're some lock to win a title. Playoff basketball is totally different than out-working the other team during those 4 games in 5 days stretches. So in many ways, 55+ wins isn't hype but based on recent history plus the elusive ghost of team health.

I will disagree that Pau needs a major revival for a deep run. I think Rose needs to stay healthy and be at least "good", Pau/Noah/Taj need to stay healthy and limit minutes, and either Mirotic or McDermott needs to be a consistent scoring threat.

[PCProductions]

The Bulls hype-train running at full speed once again; it wouldn't be a proper NBA offseason without it.

[jc23]

I got a new flash for some here. DR will not be scoring as efficiently as DJ did last year.

Anyone looking forward to Rose put up 16 attempts per 30 mins might want to think that through.

It amazes me how undervalued DJ was to CHI fans. Dude was huge for them last year.

I see some serous gears grinding as they try to integrate DR back into the team.

Dj was a spark and he helped Chicago attain the 4th seed last season. I appreciate what he brought to the team.

But he was also a defensive liability and was a practical no show in the playoffs. I would rather have DJ over Brooks or Hinrich for scoring, but losing him is not a huge deal.

IMO if you took away Rose the Bulls are still a better team overall this season compared to the team they were last season with DJ.

DJ wasnt a no show. He was targeted by the Wizards. CHI put up a good fight but it wasnt that complicated to shut down their offense which was DJ.

He was 10-22 FG and 4-8 from 3 in game 2 and even that wasn't enough. But the Wizards smartly targeted him.

Then Mike Dunleavy had an insane monster game 12-19 and 8-10 from 3. And even then CHI only won 100-97.

Then TG had one monster game scoring 35, but they still lost.

Then the last game they only could score 69 pts.

CHI fans claim Thibb can roll just about anyone in at back up PG and they will score. Well the Wizards with Wall can put any good 3 pt shooter on the floor and get them open looks from 3. PP is going to light up 3s. Don't be surprised to see Otto doing it as well who they really didnt get to use much last year because of an early season injury and their focus on a playoff push. Beal should be another level better this year which is his 3rd. His body should have finally adjusted to the 82 game season and so should his skills. And they added good depth in Humphries and Blair that they didnt have last year. And they get a full season with Miller backing up PG instead of just 28 games where they had no back up PG. And they are not relying on any of Wall, Beal, PP, Nene or Gortat coming off injury. And they have a full season of Gooden as well vs just 22 games last year.

well this conversation just changed topics lol. Its all good, the wiz are going to be a better team this season.

[jc23]

The Bulls hype-train running at full speed once again; it wouldn't be a proper NBA offseason without it.

Hype train followed by a season of injuries is the norm, hopefully only part of that equation holds true this season.

[Left Side Drive]

Bulls get 50+ wins though. 60 is much harder to get this season since they are competing directly with the Cavaliers. The health of Derrick Rose is obviously concerning. Personally, I think the Cavs have a much better shot at reaching 60 than the Bulls.

[Jimako10]

I can't wait for Eduardo to bump this thread when the bulls hit win #60.

[Tetlak]

Bulls get 50+ wins though. 60 is much harder to get this season since they are competing directly with the Cavaliers. The health of Derrick Rose is obviously concerning. Personally, I think the Cavs have a much better shot at reaching 60 than the Bulls.

Whats the difference between playing the Cavs 4 times and the big 3 Heat 4 times? There is none. They aren't competing for anything different.

[mademan]

I think the Cavs are the only East team that gets 60 this year. I see CHI/WAS/TOR all getting 50+ with the Bulls having the highest ceiling.

[kingkirk]

He is a facilitator more than a creator. Maybe we are getting into semantics, but it was a problem years ago back when Rose was healthy, and Chicago has not done anything to address their lack of creators.

Chicago hasn't done much to address the on ball creators based on dribble penetration, though having Pau and Noah as cogs within the offense, which will be a system based offense that will rely heavily on execution, something which we are very good at, we won't be playing much isolation basketball.

We're going to get scores from ball movement and a motion offense, and not by watching someone take a man off the dribble and going to work.

I am not saying we don't have a hole in the role you're suggesting, but that isn't the sole focus of the offense we run.

[Tave]

He is a facilitator more than a creator. Maybe we are getting into semantics, but it was a problem years ago back when Rose was healthy, and Chicago has not done anything to address their lack of creators.

Chicago hasn't done much to address the on ball creators based on dribble penetration, though having Pau and Noah as cogs within the offense, which will be a system based offense that will rely heavily on execution, something which we are very good at, we won't be playing much isolation basketball.

We're going to get scores from ball movement and a motion offense, and not by watching someone take a man off the dribble and going to work.

I am not saying we don't have a hole in the role you're suggesting, but that isn't the sole focus of the offense we run.

Hmm, if this is system offense, then they need a new system.

They share the ball ok, but there's no purpose and nothing accomplished.

I expect to see a lot of Rose iso's, call me crazy.

[JSmooth93]

As it currently stands, Rose is looking mediocre right now.

[mac9001]

If any East team gets to 60 wins it will probably be the Bulls. They were horrid on offense last year and still managed to win 48 games. If they can be average offensively 60 wins will be a possibility with their elite defense. But come playoff time I'm willing to bet their offensive short comings once again get exposed and they lose to a team with 10 less regular season victories.

[kingkirk]

Hmm, if this is system offense, then they need a new system.

They share the ball ok, but there's no purpose and nothing accomplished.

I expect to see a lot of Rose iso's, call me crazy.

Why do they need a new system?

The Bulls were very good last season in getting quality shots, they just didn't have anyone to finish them. That happens when you don't really have many offensive players on the roster who are healthy.

We have tried addressing this by adding better shooters to the fold, and hopefully Gasol is a positive, which i think he will be.

Everyone we've brought into the fold this off season is an offensive player. Weren't going to turn into the Clippers overnight, but we're not going to be a 28th ranked offense, either.

I have us being at aroun 9-13 in offensive rating, which is achievable given we were 11th and 5th in 2011 & 2012, with an MVP caliber Rose.

Giving the ball to Rose and making him go isolation is rudimentary and won't win in the playoffs.

[Jvaughn]

How is that relevant to the original statement? 60 wins was the projection for the regular season. That statement was challenged, because the Heat weren't able to do it their first year. It was then challenged back because the Bulls actually did it in Thibs first year. No one said anything about the playoffs. Poor attempt at trolling.

You're basing your projection on something that happened 3 years ago? Especially when your star player has looked sub par for the last 2 years?
Even if healthy, 60 wins with a more inexperienced team that will be trying to gel is going to be very difficult. Don't forget you needed an MVP Rose to get 60 wins. You'd need similar production to achieve the same goal. I will concede that if you do have MVP Rose then yeah it's somewhat possible (though still unlikely), but the chances of HAVING an MVP Rose is more than just a 'big if".

I'm not basing my projection off of what happened 3 years ago, although the situations are similar. Bulls strike out on the big FAs, then fill the team with depth to make up for void of top end talent. The team is then underrated because a superteam is assembled in their conference.

The Bulls were a 48 win team without Rose, so adding him, Gasol, and McDermott should only lead to more wins. Obviously Rose staying healthy and bouncing back is a must for them to contend, but Thibs teams always overachiever in the regular season. 60 wins is attainable. It's their ceilong, but it isn't an outrageous prediction.

[hands11]

I understand how you read that but its not how I intended it. That sentence was about this year. I even pointed out how they would be better next year.

Absolutely there is a chance he can return to an elite level. What I then questions is, can be maintain that without getting injured again.

I'll use the John Wall comparison. The first years of Wall, he drove a lot and ran hard end to end a lot. He also got injured ever year. Even ended up with a stress fracture. Last year he worked on converting his game. He drove less, shot more 3s, and he added more pace to his game. Result. 82 games averaging 36.3 mins. and 2nd round in a weak East.

Rose will be 26 in Oct. He had a great first 3 years in the league Phase 1, then two injured years Phase 2.

This is uncharted territory. What will he do to adjust his game and still be effective. And keep in mind, at his peak the team was to centered around him which didn't translate into the playoffs. Its was great for his posting amazing stats and having a great regular season record, but come the playoffs, you can shut that style down.

For them to be good and good in the playoffs this year, Rose will need to blend in and hit 3s reliably and focus on being efficient in that style and that's what I don't see happening quickly. Its Gasol who is the key to them being a legit playoff team. And they will need a lot from Dunleavy and McBuckets.

Fair points on the injury concerns. His athletic ability isn't a question at all, it's about maintaining health and avoiding that next big knee injury that knocks him out for the rest of the season.

The idea that his game or the Bulls' game with him doesn't translate the playoffs is a much too premature assertion to make. The last time Rose played more than one game in the playoffs was 2011. He had absolutely no ball-handling help around him at that point. Bogans was the starter at the 2. And the Bulls made it to the ECF, matching up against the Heat who would go on to 4 straight finals. We don't know if that subsequent team especially in 2012 with Rip Hamilton capable of being much more of an offensive threat at the 2 would've been enough. Nonetheless, the Bulls were basically a lock again for the ECF that year as well had Rose and Noah not both gone down with injuries, and that's not insignificant. It's like saying those early 90's Knicks teams couldn't possibly win on a big level when they may have been the second best team in the league those years just so happened to have to deal with MJ/Scottie.

SF is their great weakness. They have neither an elite defender or a ball handler there. What they have is two spot up shooters and thats a problem.

That's disingenuous. People constantly say that Jimmy Butler is a natural 3 and he's as elite a defender as they come. The Bulls could play Rose/Hinrich or even Snell at the 3 and give Butler 100% of his minutes at the 3 if they wanted. But that's beside the point because the Bulls' wing positions are interchangeable offensively. True that they don't have a guy who's an elite ball-handler but both white guys are capable ball handlers and passers. They both can shoot very well which is what this Bulls' team needs a lot of and McDermott is a versatile scorer despite not being a guy who breaks his man down off the dribble with blazing speed.

Fair reply.

You seem open to the kind of input I provided and are at least willing to acknowledge there are challenges.

I did consider Butler as a wing defender, but that doesn't fix the issue really because of what you mentioned. That put who at SG then.. Kirk ? And the other two SF are in line with how I described them... i.e. Spot up shooters and one is a rookie, be it a good one. I pointed this out in part because it was a challenge the Wizards had last year. Wall was relied on a ton to run the offense and was most of their dribbling skills. Actually that was the case for several years up until they added Miller and Beal later in the year last year. With that set up, its really showed what the Wizards were lacking and its why they spent so much regular season possessions on Beal developing his ball handing skills which paid off in the playoffs, but wasn't efficient during the season. Had the Wizards just focused on what was efficient, instead of developing Beal, they could have won more regular season games. Turtle and the Hair. They went with Turtle. CHI would be short sighted to go the rout of the Hair.

Its a legit question to wonder how Rose changes his game to make it work as a whole and how well he will adapt to that. Last time he was a big part of the team, he was ball dominate and relied on a lot to score and handle the ball. I just don't see it as likely he can pull that off again and I think there will be at least a 25 game adjustment period of him finding him right balance. Maybe more. Its not like he is going to just blend in, score 25 pts, dish 9 dimes and Gasol will get 23 and 9. And, if he can't hit the 3 at least at a .350 clip, he isn't going to stretch the D.

If I was a defensive coach, I would sag on Rose, focus on Gasol and let Rose try to do it on his own. That's how some team played the Wizards. They ran under picks not over them and focus Wall to decide if he would take the shot or keep running the offense. I fully expect the Wizards to play them this way.

And as of today, Wizards are the better team having beat them 4-1 in the playoffs with 3 wins on the road. That mental advantage is huge. Having a better reg season record doesn't mean as much as head to head playoffs.

Again, I see CHI challenges this year as very similar to the Wizards last year regarding Ross and their SFs.

Plus, adding Rose running the show is a huge change from the role Noah played last year. Its not all going to be a net gain. Some of it is just changing roles. Its not all going to add to the top line. And efficiency matters.

My guess. I think they will struggle to start the year to say .500
TOR has a much better chance of getting off to a fast start.
So do the Wizards. And maybe BRK even.

I see it more as CHI closing hard and thats not a set up for a big regular season record.