Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Pacers

Post #1 » by **jazzfan1971** » Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:12 pm

Indiana Pacers

Projected Roster
-----------------------------

PG - George Hill, CJ Watson, Donald Sloan
SG - CJ Miles, Rodney Stuckey
SF - Solomon Hill, Damjan Rudez, Chris Copeland
PF - David West, Luis Scola, Lavoy Allen
C - Roy Hibbert, Ian Mahinmi, Shayne Whittington

Trade Block: David West. I don't see much reason to hang onto him at his age. He'll be better use to a contending team. Which sadly, Indy is no longer this season.

Position Battle: CJ Miles vs. Rodney Stuckey. Both guys have their own flavor of sucking. It'll be interesting to see which flavor the coach prefers the most.

Mystery Man: Who is going to score? Where are points going to come from on this team? George Hill? David West? Roy Hibbert? There could be some painfully bad scoring nights coming up.

Floppymusings: The Pacers are one big stealth squad. They are a who's who of players that are pretty darn good, but are thought of as average by the casual fan. Hill, Hibbert, and West are good starters. The bench is not strong, but is not as weak as many might think. Losing George was huge huge huge, but losing Lance, less so. Pacers will lose a lot more games but will not be the cellar dwellers I see predicted around the web.

Jazzfanramblings: Man. The Pacers. Where do I start? I guess I'll start with the win they got against the Jazz on March 2nd of last year, because right after that the wheels started falling off. By my count they finished the season on a 10 and 13 run. They'd lost the same number of games in the previous 59 games. They were on a 78% winning pace up til then to drop off into a 43% pace to finish the season. It was strange to watch. Roy Hibbert seemed like he woke up one morning and simply forgot how to play. A local radio DJ put it as such, "It's like Usain Bolt showed up to a race one day and started skipping and was like, this is how I run now."

They traded off Granger. Scola sucked. Hill put in a 13ish PER for the year, where 15 is league average. Even with all that, they limped into the playoffs with the best record in the East and managed a very respectable run to the Conference finals where they forced the Heat to 6 games.

But now they let Lance Stephenson walk without compensation in a bit of a self inflicted injury. And of course Paul George did his imitation of a folding chair. (if you haven't seen the footage I don't recommend it) It's just a lot to handle. And I think they are doing so poorly. Miami lost the best player in the game for no compensation but they'll be fine because they went out and added pretty decent pieces in Deng and McRoberts. The Pacers brought in CJ Miles and Rodney Stuckey. I had the misfortune of watching CJ Miles for years and I can guarantee he's not worth the money he's being paid. It's just a huge step backwards.

But, what's weird is that I don't get the sense that Indy is going to blow it up. I get the feeling they are going to try and make the playoffs with what they have left. This is where I compare them to Monty Python's Black Knight bravely fighting on even with 3 of his limbs severed. And I imagine the rest of the league is looking at a trio of Hibbert, Hill, and West and thinking something along the lines of 'What are you going to do? Bleed on me?"

Hopefully I'm wrong. I hope that they sell off what veteran talent they can and reload with a top pick and a healthy George next year. But, I'm worried with how wide open the East is that they may try and make an ill advised run for the playoffs instead. I guess we'll have to wait and see, either way it shouldn't be a pretty season for the Pacers.

Projected Record - 39/43

Post #2 » by **jazzfan1971** » Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:13 pm

min - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1345879
noh - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1345540
bk- viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1345695
nyk - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1345450
det - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1343829
cha - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1343704
olr - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1343074
bos - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1342628
mil - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1342355
sac - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1342100
uta - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1341821
lal - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1341640
phi - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1341521

Post #3 » by **jazzfan1971** » Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:14 pm

I posted some data about how many wins and losses the Pacers had after a certain date. I didn't really double check my work and looking at it I suspect I got it wrong. If anyone wants to double check my work I'll appreciate it.

StaticRoar · Post #4 » by **StaticRoar** » Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:24 pm

For those of you bad at algebra, if the Pacers have X number of wins and the same X number of losses, their record must be 41-41.

Pan Jia Yuan · Post #5 » by **Pan Jia Yuan** » Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:50 pm

There's really not much to say about the Pacers, eh? Lost George and Lance. Conclusion:

jazzfan1971 wrote:Projected Record - X/X

Meh...

Doddage · Post #6 » by **Doddage** » Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:19 pm

Ugh, this is depressing to see. The difference a year makes.

WesleyExChiFan · Post #7 » by **WesleyExChiFan** » Sat Sep 20, 2014 11:33 pm

I remember posting a Lee/Barnes trade for West/Copeland. They need to do something though. This was a win-now team last year. Bite the bullet and rebuild Indy.

Post #8 » by **jazzfan1971** » Sun Sep 21, 2014 1:40 am

Updated witb record and floppymusings

Post #9 » by **Trader_Joe** » Sun Sep 21, 2014 2:01 am

This was basically a .500 team the second half of the season.
After losing George, Stephenson and looking at that 1-3, I really don't think they flirt with 40 wins in an improved East.

Post #10 » by **pacers33granger** » Sun Sep 21, 2014 2:29 am

Trader_Joe wrote:This was basically a .500 team the second half of the season.
After losing George, Stephenson and looking at that 1-3, I really don't think they flirt with 40 wins in an improved East.

I hope to god you're right and I'll be shocked if we are a .500 team. It's not that I don't like seeing my team win, but this is our shot to bottom out a bit and do a quick retooling.

Ultimately, what I see from this season is at best a 7/8 seed, but more likely one of the last teams to miss the postseason. Most Pacers fans are hoping Solo Hill gets some good run and we can see what we have in him. We'll hopefully also see an improved George Hill since he won't be relegated to 5th starter.

I personally want to see Scola gone from this team. We really have absolutely no need for him now and he was horrendous last year. I know Bird won't move him since he loves him and gave up so much, but he just flat out sucks. Bird won't trade West either unless someone offers up a steal which won't happen. And trading Hibbert would just be dumb right now.

This will probably be a year to try some things out, work on some guys' games, and give some run to guys like Rudez and Allen.

AussieBuck · Post #11 » by **AussieBuck** » Sun Sep 21, 2014 3:53 am

What have you got their offense per 100 at Floppy?

Scalabrine · Post #12 » by **Scalabrine** » Sun Sep 21, 2014 6:32 am

wesleybullsfan wrote:I remember posting a Lee/Barnes trade for West/Copeland. They need to do something though. This was a win-now team last year. Bite the bullet and rebuild Indy.

Why would you bring that up? That is an absolutely terrible trade for the Warriors.

WesleyExChiFan · Post #13 » by **WesleyExChiFan** » Sun Sep 21, 2014 6:49 am

Scalabrine wrote:
wesleybullsfan wrote:I remember posting a Lee/Barnes trade for West/Copeland. They need to do something though. This was a win-now team last year. Bite the bullet and rebuild Indy.

Why would you bring that up? That is an absolutely terrible trade for the Warriors.

West does everything Lee does and plays D while being cheaper, that costs a prospect.

But that's neither here nor there. My point is, IND needs a reboot. However they wish to go about it.

shangrila · Post #14 » by **shangrila** » Sun Sep 21, 2014 9:06 am

So much depends on Hibbert. If he can get back to playing good basketball I could see that team sneaking into the playoffs in the East. But if he continues where he left off last season I just don't see how they'll be able to score consistently.

aaron_gray · Post #15 » by **aaron_gray** » Sun Sep 21, 2014 12:36 pm

Is it inconcievable that both Miles and Stuckey will start? Also, Stuckey actually provided decent scoring for Detroit last year.

cammac · Post #16 » by **cammac** » Sun Sep 21, 2014 1:13 pm

While many of your projections I believe were on the low side this one is on the high side.
West is the only above average NBA player on the team and Hibbert will be a huge liability this year since his lack of mobility will be exposed even more. See them at 32 wins tops.

EuroPacer · Post #17 » by **EuroPacer** » Sun Sep 21, 2014 1:20 pm

We aren't going to be great or rubbish and I am fine with that. I don't think breeding a losing culture will help. In fact, I am still to see one of these illustrious tanking teams work out well long term.

Also have to laugh at calling McBob and Deng solid additions whilst dismissing The Pacers' new guys, there really isn't a lot in it, unless Deng all of a sudden is three years younger and healthy, and that is coming from a massive McBob fan.

Post #18 » by **floppymoose** » Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:52 pm

AussieBuck wrote:What have you got their offense per 100 at Floppy?

I don't have a breakdown for that. I'm having to switch my data source midstream too, to espn's rapm values. I did a test of which of the various rapm source out there gave the best predictions for last year, and espn's rapm had the edge. This is going to change the results a bit from what has already been posted. Knicks and Hornets fans will still hate me though.

AussieBuck · Post #19 » by **AussieBuck** » Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:58 pm

floppymoose wrote:
AussieBuck wrote:What have you got their offense per 100 at Floppy?

I don't have a breakdown for that. I'm having to switch my data source midstream too, to espn's rapm values. I did a test of which of the various rapm source out there gave the best predictions for last year, and espn's rapm had the edge. This is going to change the results a bit from what has already been posted. Knicks and Hornets fans will still hate me though.

Ok, I was just eyeballing it and it looks like it will still be a good defense but terrible offense so if they are hovering around .500 I guess something like 101off 102def. I guess I could see that, it's just a rough looking team to look at on the perimeter.

Hoopstar23 · Post #20 » by **Hoopstar23** » Mon Sep 22, 2014 2:23 am

This is such an interesting team, the pacers could very well make the playoffs and very well not make the playoffs. If the Pacers are the 6th seed and are somewhat playing good ball I wouldnt be surprised to see Paul George come back for the Playoffs more likely Game 6 of 1st round or Game 1 of the second if they make it or get that far...