Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Raptors

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Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Raptors 

Post#1 » by jazzfan1971 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:12 pm

Toronto Raptors

Projected lineup
-------------------------------

PG - Kyle Lowry, Greivis Vasquez
SG - Demar Derozan, Louis Williams, Landry Fields
SF - Terrence Ross, James Johnson, Bruno Caboclo
PF - Amir Johnson, Patrick Patterson, Tyler Hansbrough
C - Jonas Valanciunas, Chuck Hayes, Lucas Noquiera

Trade Block: The one thing that Raptors are lacking right now is a backup center. Chuck Hayes is ok, but, at 6'7" he's limited. I think they might prefer to address this via free agency, but a trade is possible. I would guess that something like Landry Fields and a future pick would be in the offering.

Position Battle: None that I can see. Unless someone like Caboclo or Noquiera comes out of nowhere and demands a big role.

Mystery Man: Jonas Valanciunas. The ability of the Raptors to make the next step is going to resolve around internal growth, and that really comes down to the improvement of one Jonas Valanciunas. If he can take the next step to become an elite center the Raptors can solidify themselves as a top team in the East. If he's all ready plateaued then the Raptors will need to look for improvement elsewhere.


Floppymusings: This season will be about the development of Ross and Valanciunas. Can they take it up a notch? If so, the Raptors will be dangerous. If not, they'll still be decent. I like Patrick Patterson a lot and expect him to be the 6th man. The Raptors should threaten for a top 4 seed all season long, but ultimately I think they'll be around the 6th seed.

Jazzfansramblings:
I was way too harsh on New Orlean's fans in my article on them. I think that's because I really like their team so that their lack of interest (at least in RealGM) was outsize to me. I think it's much the reverse with the Raptors. They are like the anti-Pelicans. I don't really care too much about their team, I just don't find them that exciting or interesting. But, their fans!!!! They love the Raptors like no other team in the league. In fact, one of their fans responded to my request for help so extensively that I am going to put it here in full as tribute, not only to that poster, but to Toronto fans in general. Much respect.

(The following is a quote of Snomeister from RealGM. I asked every teams fans to help me with depth charts and tell me a little about story lines for the team and about the coaches and he came back with this. All I could say was "WOW". To be honest, it was tl/dr for me, but, for those of you who are clamoring for more analysis all I have to say is you asked for it and Snomeister delivered)


This team's strengths lies in its balance, depth, teamwork, defence, and athleticism. Its weakness is lack of elite talent, go-to scoring ability, and a slow pace that doesn't take full advantage of the team's athletic abilities. At the beginning of the season with Rudy Gay, we were brutal to watch. ISO again and again, most of the time being long twos that would miss. The team had no cohesion and was one of the worst passing teams in the league. Once he was traded and we got the Sacramento guys over here, everything seemed to click and it was our chemistry that suddenly became our biggest advantage like a switch was finally flicked on.

Kyle Lowry - Most Raptor fans will tell you that he's our best player, despite Demar being the bigger name and an all-star. That's why it was so important for us to sign him, with him gone, we would be looking at returning to the lottery. Kyle is our main ballhandler and although not your typical floor general, he does most often than not make the right decision with the ball. He still maintains the bulldog personality he had when he was younger, which is maybe his best trait. Although his locker room personality is sometimes criticized, and I can see why it would become a problem in the wrong situation, it's that same relentless drive that made us so successful last season, as he was a leader to our team and that passion spilled over to the rest of the team so that after the trade everybody played with a nonstop passion. Lowry can also be deceptive on both ends of the floor. He'll frequently pull up for 3 when the defence is not expecting it, or pump fake and draw fouls on jump shots and he's arguably our best shooter. He's fearless when going to the rim and has a good touch around there and will often look for an open big if he doesn't have a good angle to the rim himself. Lowry is also one of our best defenders. His combination of quickness and strength allows him to keep up with most opposing point guards, but it is his team defence that makes him a valuable defender at the point. He'll often sneak in on unsuspecting players for steals. It's this same sneaking tendency, along with his aggressive play, that allows him to grab a lot of rebounds. He led the league in charges drawn and is very good at predicting how opposing offences are going to attack. There's no question about it, Kyle Lowry is the MVP of the Raptors.

Demar Derozan - Although Lowry is the main leader of the team, Derozan is the leader of the franchise, if that makes any sense for you. He's the main face, who the team advertises, and of course, our sole all-star. Coming into the league Derozan was very raw but with potential, and through much hard work he has actually realized all that potential. It's that hard work attitude which is his greatest attribute, as he's always looking to improve and add something to his game. He was always a good leaper and finisher, now he is also great at drawing fouls (one of the NBA leaders in FTA), and is also a great midrange shooter. A lot of Demar's offense comes off curling off screens for jumpshots, but he has some problems when he tries to create his own shot with the ball or when he is shooting from longer range. This year he greatly improved his ability to pass to the open man when the defense focuses in on him, as he raised his APG from 2.5 the year before to 4.0 now. Besides 3pont shooting being his main weakness, Demar also has troubles on the defensive end. Although primarily known for being an athlete, Demar lacks quickness required to both get by defenders and to contain offensive players. As a weak on-ball defender, he gets blown by easily, but Demar gets credit for buying into the coach's defensive schemes and always trying to compete to the best of his abilities.

Terrence Ross - Ross is a bit of our 3&D specialist. His offense mainly relies on his great outside shooting ability and his great leaping ability. Although he has a terrific first step, you do not usually want the ball in his hands as his ballhandling is subpar and decision making with the ball is not the greatest either, he is a great off-ball offensive player as he seems to always know how and where to go to be open for a 3 point shot. Obviously, he's one of the league's best dunkers, but he also sometimes has trouble finishing due to his weak frame and small wingspan. He is a terror on the fast break (but our team runs the fewest fast breaks in the league) as his speed and dunking ability should usually mean a score in transition. On defence, Terrence is our on-ball defender specialist. His surreal, cat-like quickness lets him contain even the fastest of players, and even if he gets blown by he can recover for a block using his jumping ability. It's his team defence that is actually a weakness though, as he'll often get caught up on screens and then lose track of where he should be. Coach Casey has high hopes for him though so if his awareness can be improved he could be a deadly weapon as a two-way specialist.

Amir Johnson - Amir is our heart and soul, it's that simple. Toronto fans always have a warm spot in their hearts for hardworking, blue collar type guys, and like JYD before him, Amir is that scrappy, lay it all on the floor type of player. An advanced stat darling, Amir is a great finisher at the rim and shows it with a high field goal percentage. He's slowly been extending his jump shot range and even started to shoot 3s this season, although I think that is a bit too much for his range. His midrange J is fine but with a slow release so it's only worth using when defences lose track of him and he's completely open. Good pick and roll player as he is a great screen setter, soft hands allow him to catch any pass, and like I said, he'll put the ball in the net when near the rim, whether it's with a dunk, window layup, or baby hookshot. Amir is also a great man and team defender as his quickness allows him to defend the pick and roll, shotblocking instincts helps him to play weakside defense, great awareness to always rotate to the correct man, and an unbearing tenacity that will let you know, Amir is always going to do whatever he can to make the other team unable to score. Part of that also causes him to always be among the league leaders in fouls as he'll often try to get away with shoves or whatever else to sabotage his opponent. Although another part of that is the NBA referees undying hatred of the Raptors and especially of Amir and Jonas. Literally, during the playoffs against the Nets, Nets players would blatantly foul a Raptor and somehow Amir or Jonas would get called for a foul. Anyway, Amir loves Toronto and his teammates like no other and will constantly play through injuries just to help his team. He is a warrior, through and through.

Jonas Valanciunas - The last starter, JV still has a long ways to go in his development but the future looks bright. He is long and tough, though still sort of learning his role and how to be effective in the NBA. Coming in as a pick and roll specialist, he has greatly improved his low-post scoring abilities and strength so that he can take most guys one on one. The problem though is that NBA is five on five, and JV can struggle when the help comes and can lead to turnovers buy trying to do too much or throwing the ball away. If left alone with his defender though, he'll probably use a drop step or reliable hook shot to score. JV has a respectable midrange shot, and one of the most important things for him to learn is how to use it more effectively, as of now he usually just waits til he is open and then pump fakes after he catches the ball. He is a great free throw shooter for a big man and that's where I hope for him to do most of his damage in the future. If he can learn to diversify his game a bit more he will be a top offensive C. On defense JV struggles a bit right now, he has had a hard time adjusting to the game of the NBA, but again he shows a lot of promise. Usually just a step slow, once he learns how to predict an offense, he should be an above average anchor as his speed, length, strength, and toughness give him a fine base to work with.

Greivis Vasquez - Your sort of prototypical 6th man. Vasquez has all sorts of confidence, often leading him to be given some sort of nickname involving SWAG. Never afraid to take a big shot, and with his improved jump shot, that can be very valuable. Also a good pick and roll PG as his height helps him see over defenders and he will often look to pass to the big man, which our two main bigs are very good as pick and roll finishers. Struggles on the defensive end as he has trouble staying in front of even shooting guards and he gambles too much. This is why he is best used as a bench player although sometimes I think he might not be happy with that role forever.

Patrick Patterson - First big off the bench and someone I was personally very surprised with when we got him from Sacramento. Consummate professional, always seems intelligent in interviews and you can see it on the court as he's always trying to make the right play and be in the right place. Very good jumpshooter, both midrange and from 3, making him a solid stretch 4. Also willing to mix it up by attacking the basket and finding a teammate when they have a better shot. On defense he gives a lot of effort and shows a good court awareness by helping his teammates when they need it and rotating to close out on shooters. A bench player that any team would be happy to have.

James Johnson - Think of a homeless man's version of Lebron. That's JJ. Very versatile player who can do anything, but doesn't really do anything great. Has good size and ballhandling to go with it, but his lack of a jumpshot (yet no lack of a trigger) hurts his productivity. Good passer but he'd be better if he looked to pass more. Still, he has great value as a defender, especially against the big wings in the league, which this team sorely needed against the Nets. He'll pick off the passing lanes, block shots from the weakside, and just all around fill up the stat sheet in the minutes he's given. His attitude is the biggest mark on him as he sometimes makes bad decisions both on and off the court.

Louis Williams - Can't say a whole lot about him as a member of this team, but I'm looking forward to see him play. Used to regularly destroy us when he was a Sixer, giving him the title of being a Raptor Killer. Finds his way to the rim with ease, although can also be a bit of a chucker. Hopefully we will see the good side of him in Toronto and should be a valuable scorer off the bench.

Tyler Hansbrough - I don't think I need to say much about Psycho T. Hated him when he was on the Pacers, but of course I like him now. Always seems to get the opponent to foul him, as his free throw rate is sky high. Although, he'll often foul the opposing player as well, so it goes both ways.

Chuck Hayes - A low-post defender specialist. Sometimes during the season we would struggle to contain the Al Jeffersons and Demarcus Cousins's of the league, and the in comes Chuck Hayes and shuts. them. down. Unfortunately, he's useless in almost every other respect besides using his size (width not height) to set good screen and grab rebounds. Although I always heard he was great for playing within himself, he didn't seem to do that in Toronto as he was a bit of a blackhole on offense and would routinely miss layups. Had a .429 FG% compared to a career .498. Still, he's just a specialist with one role, so no big deal.

Bruno Caboclo - Our mystery player. INSANE wingspan at 7'6 with a height of 6'9. This guy is all arms. Very polished jump shot, able to knock down the NBA 3. He isn't as far away as Fran Frashcilla said during the draft, but I think we can just expect him to play garbage minutes this year until he learns the nuances of the game more. Looks to be a potential terror on the defensive end with his combination of spider arms and lateral quicks.

Lucas Nogueira - Basically the big man version of Caboclo. Played in the ACB so he should be more polished, but from what I saw in the Summer League it looks like he still needs to learn a lot more before he's ready. Long with great shot blocking ability, and maybe an underrated passer, but he's basically your typical raw shotblocker with potential.

Landry Fields - The human victory cigar of the Toronto Raptors. He actually had a chance to be a surprising hero for this team as during the playoffs we desperately needed anybody who could defend Joe Johnson, and Landry emerged looking like he was going to be the one, but then he apprently hurt his back after 5 minutes of play and wasn't seen in the playoff again (insert Debbie Downer noise). High IQ player who knows where to be on offense and defense, unfortunately he has absolutely no ability to shoot or finish at the rim. Definition of a YES YES YES NOOOOOO player - everything looks like it will be good until the result.

Dwayne Casey - Defense first coach who will always get the most of his players on that end. Emphasizes team play which the players are finally starting to buy into. Seems like the Rudy Gay trade was the catalyst for that. Not the best in-game manager, often gets crucified around here for his rotations, but he's great at preparing the team up to the game. Offense lacks a bit of creativity but I agree with him about emphasizing playing with teamwork, which was one of our greatest strengths after the trade.

Pretty long, but that's my summary about the team. It's a group of pretty likeable guys, with all the starters being fan favourites. The most hated player on the team, John Salmons, was traded to Atlanta for Sweet Lou and Bebe Noguiera, a steal by Masai taking advantage of a team that wanted to shed salary. Which reminds me, Masai is our biggest strength as a team. With him in charge, we finally have stability and vision with this team, something it's lacked for, perhaps ever. Masai is able to get the best out of teams, winning trades so badly sometimes that it makes the opposing team look like fools. Knicks owner Dolan was so worried about being swindled by Jedi Masai again that he rejected the Lowry trade that would have sent over Raymond Felton, which made Dolan look even dumber from that and we never looked back after that. :lol:


Projected Record - 45/37
"Thibs called back and wanted more picks," said Jorge Sedano. "And Pat Riley, literally, I was told, called him a mother-bleeper and hung up the phone."
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Rapto 

Post#2 » by Ashwinz. » Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:17 pm

I'm disappointed in the lack of Raps in 4 in your post.

Raps in 4.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Rapto 

Post#3 » by RonaldArtest » Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:27 pm

Can't see the team regressing to 45 wins since they kept their team in tact over the summer, added some key bench pieces for depth, and won't start the year with Rudy Gay.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Rapto 

Post#4 » by jazzfan1971 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:32 pm

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"Thibs called back and wanted more picks," said Jorge Sedano. "And Pat Riley, literally, I was told, called him a mother-bleeper and hung up the phone."
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Rapto 

Post#5 » by mrsocko » Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:54 pm

Raps played +3.7 after Gay trade. That's a 53 win pace. I think the 45 wins is low but half the league was tankin last year so, we will see.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Rapto 

Post#6 » by snomeister » Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:56 pm

I think this is the best preview yet, if I may say so myself :P
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Rapto 

Post#7 » by LloydFree » Mon Sep 22, 2014 11:01 pm

50 cheap Ad1's for the 1st person that posts that the Raptors are being under-rated in this preview.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Rapto 

Post#8 » by Boarder Patrol » Mon Sep 22, 2014 11:03 pm

Pretty much agree on the prediction. Raps stayed pat but the East is a little tighter.
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Post#9 » by Meeksology » Mon Sep 22, 2014 11:17 pm

I hope u brought ur hard hat and steeltoed boots bruv cuz ur bout to get worked
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Rapto 

Post#10 » by WiggOuts » Mon Sep 22, 2014 11:21 pm

Snomeister did a great job with that analysis. Great read from a well educated fan.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Rapto 

Post#11 » by Sluggerface » Mon Sep 22, 2014 11:27 pm

I kind of expected raps nation to be here already to eviscerate a 45 win projection and declare the raps as the master race.

Season can't start fast enough.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Rapto 

Post#12 » by TDotsfinest97 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 11:28 pm

50 wins or bust
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Rapto 

Post#13 » by chuckdevlin » Mon Sep 22, 2014 11:33 pm

45?
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---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lou-Williams is not our best off-season move, despite what people say.

James Johnson added to our rotation not only gives us a large-body SF that we sorely needed in the playoffs. But, it takes away the time that John Salmons spent in our rotation. Can anyone guess how many minutes he got? ....22 minutes per game.

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Re: Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Rapto 

Post#14 » by TdotRap4Lyfe » Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:15 am

Good analysis, thanks for the post. I still think that Raptors would flirt with 50 wins this coming season, but this as good an estimate as I'd imagine.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Rapto 

Post#15 » by DG88 » Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:19 am

Thanks jazzfan1971, I've been waiting for this preview. When looking at the East I see my Raptors either 3rd seed or 4th seed but they'll be in the same tier as the Wizards, Hornets and Heat. The East should be much more competitive this season and I'm looking forward to it. At best I see the Raptors winning 52 and at worst winning 45. The continuity and chemistry that we got plus the playoff experience will do us well going into the season.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Rapto 

Post#16 » by Swag » Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:22 am

Meh.

Raptors with 50 + wins!
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Rapto 

Post#17 » by Kevin Willis » Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:41 am

1 - How many wins did Raptors project to have last year using this model?
2 - Steisma is the projected back-up C. He's not great but he might be an improvement to Hayes
3 - Did the East really get stonger? Miami is worse. Pacers are worse. Chicago and Cleveland will need time to gel. Brooklyn got worse. Washington and Toronto are about the same but more experienced. Charlotte is better. NY is a similar team to last year. With the Atlantic being weak and a decent percentage of their games being in the Atlantic they might with the same amount by default.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Rapto 

Post#18 » by steamed hams » Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:54 am

64 wins or bust
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Rapto 

Post#19 » by EJaggit » Tue Sep 23, 2014 1:07 am

I agree with OP only thing is though is that only a Raptors fan would know how much we improved with these players we got in the off-season. We improved greatly at points we needed to and I don't see how we could simply "stay put" with how we did last season. James Johnson was the best move we got. A guy like Joe Johnson or LeBron can't bully us anymore. Adding a couple of the signed C's although they may not be household names we rest Amir Johnson for the playoffs. Everyone knows when Amir is fresh, he's a great player to have. Look at game 7 vs Nets, we'd get that type of performance.

For a normal fan they'd say okay we signed a couple role players won't make that much of a difference, to us Raptors fans, our role players that we signed brings us much more closer to where we need to be.
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Re: Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Rapto 

Post#20 » by floppymoose » Tue Sep 23, 2014 1:07 am

Kevin Willis wrote:1 - How many wins did Raptors project to have last year using this model?

This is the first season I've tried this.

I did run the same analysis with last year's data, but it was with last year's actual # of possessions each player played, and last year's actual rapm values (rather than forward looking estimates). Under that test, it predicted 49 wins.

But I expect to be a lot less accurate than that with these predictions. I don't know exactly how much each player will play. And I'm (for the most part) using last year's rapm values for players. When I began this I was using a data source that tried to do a reasonable job of projections (factoring in an aging curve I think, and also looking back over more than just the most recent season to establish a baseline). But that data had issues that forced me to switch sources (to espn's rapm values), and those do not include any projections.

I may try to fit my own projection analysis on top of espn's data, but that's likely a project for next year's projections. For now I'm trying to keep things simple.

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