Amazing 7-year prime where he proved to be one of the best playoff point guards in NBA history. One of the great NBA Finals in 1990, averaging 27.6 points and 7 assists on 62.9%TS against the 4th-ranked defense in the league. Underrated defender, too. He used his quickness to cut off point guards and fight through screens, and he gave 2 non-Larry Hughes type steals, too.
Why's he better than Billups (or Gus Williams)?
If you're looking at 7ish year primes, Billups has 20+ PER seasons as bookends of an excellent 8 year span ('03-'10). For that span he's 20.6 PER, .211 WS/48. Isiah's 7 years (84-90 I'm assuming) is 19.4 and .134. Thomas here appears either a little worse or much worse.
Same span for playoffs Isiah is 20.9; .161. Billups is 19.7; .199. Billups is a little worse or a fair chunk better in the playoffs.
I'll throw in that DWS overcredits Isiah on D.
His D isn't underrated, his boxscore numbers overrate it. Being a non- gambler and fighting through screens is dubious too. Reviews on his D ranged from very bad
Bob Ryan's All-Sieve Team in the Hollander Complete Book of Pro Basketball 1984 wrote:All-Sieve Team These are the men who habitually end their oponents scoring slumps F Billy Knight F Campy Russell C Dan Issel G Magic Johnson G Isiah Thomas Russell didn't play last year. But he long ago established the standard to which all non-defensive forwards aspire. Interesting, isn't it, that both Magic and Isiah rank high in steals?
(and this jives team analyis from that time notes backcourt D as a weakness, naming Isiah and Vinnie specificically) to above average (noting activity, though notably not getting through picks "he's not consistent getting through screens" according to the generally positive, post title potentially halo effect influenced '89-90 Rick Barry's Pro Basketball Scouting Report) though this latter designation would still make him worse than his boxscore D (and particularly DWS).
Thanks for the scouting report on Isiah's defense. I still think that underrates him, because whenever I watch him play, he seems to be a solid decision-maker who competes on that end and has good lateral quickness, but maybe I overrated him before.
Billups and Williams are interesting. Williams has a clear longevity issue (only around 25,000 career minutes), but his peak is pretty awesome. He had some great playoff performances, too.
Chauncey is one of my favorites. If I were building an all-time team, Billups would be a guy I'd take to compliment any number of superstars. His 2009 playoff run is one of the greatest in modern history for a PG. 22/7 on 66%TS, under 2 turnovers, massive foul draw rate and a strong spacing effect, and great decision-making which maximized Carmelo Anthony's scoring talent.
Like Isiah though, he had his ups and down in the playoffs, especially with Detroit. Isiah is much more of a creative PG though and puts constant pressure on defenses by blitzing past his defender at every opportunity and making sure at least 4 eyes are on him at all times instead of 2. He's like Westbrook; I'm a proponent of Westbrook's global impact on offense despite the mediocre scoring efficiency paired with high-volume scoring. The pressure those guys put on opposing defenses is huge, and when they burn nuclear with their own production, they can take over in ways a guy like Billups or John Stockton can't or won't.
To be fair, the (limited info) impression I get on D is he got to roughly around average after a few years (which whilst, as I say, is worse than his boxscore, is towards the upper end of the range I noted). Certainly it became less of a noted weakness after 2 or three years in the league.
The thing is the opportunity cost cost of those guys (primarily Thomas here) over Billups/Stockton. It's losing the low turnovers and %s. Even if you could prove the 4 eyes on him type of stuff, yes he'll make more happen but how much of it will be good. What's the marginal trade off in ts% and turnovers for that little extra scoring punch, and if the boxscore doesn't show it enough (for me I'm fairly convinced) it came up at the time ...
'86 Complete Handbook ... [written offseason '85] wrote:Went one-on-one too much during playoffs after growing frustrated at at lack of production by some of his teammates and was repeatedly chided by coach Chuck Daly
'87 Complete Handbook ... wrote:Detroit - Playmaking: Only Magic Johnson distributes better than Isiah, but there seems to be an increasing "I-have-to-do-it-all-because-no-one-else-will" feeling in in the 6-1 guard ... [Dumars] took some ball-handling pressure off Thomas and allowed Isiah to become more of a shooter, but that probably didn't help the Pistons much.
[profile]Illness didn't affect his performance in the postseason as he tried to do what he always tries to do when his team is struggling -- too much ... Shot too much against Hawks, allowing his passing game to suffer.
'88 Complete Handbook ... wrote:Confidence is his greatest asset ... sometimes that gets him into trouble as he tries to do too much ... Game 1 (6-24 from the field) against the Celtics was such a game
'89 Complete Handbook ... wrote:But "Pocket Magic" sometimes gets carried away as his penetrating becomes aimless kamikaze charges. He'll burn you at any time, or go silly with 1-on-5 drives
And that's not comprehensive ... I can go to the team sections, keeping going on or look at Barry scouting books (only available in later years, i.e. this isn't something he corrected for the titles, and I believe the stats back me up) and continue to pull the "why the hell is he making these moves?" type comments. And aside from the infuritatingness of a PG who doesn't consistently value possessions (I think it sends a bad message to teammates) at personal preference level, I think the metrics reveal the cost of this. I think the big nights (and the celebration thereof) sometimes mask this. I know this is all the negative stuff, and sure there's plenty of nice stuff written too, but the decision making is a repeated refrain throughout his career. Sometimes "going nuclear" works, but sometimes it's his team that implodes.
I will look back in a couple of hours to see if we have any more votes. Right now, I would lean to Drexler among the 3 though I think I favor both Gilmore and Payton over Drexler.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
fpliii wrote:Can anybody break down Isiah's defense for me please? Would be greatly appreciated.
His defense was really good but he was playing with Cheeks, Squid, MJ, DJ as peers. Isiah stole the ball from other PGs more than from passing lanes. His rebounding is very underrated. Isiah avged almost 8 rpg vs the Celtics big3. To his fault Isiah did take possessions off on defense to save energy and because most of the time the other teams PGs were not scoring threats. In my research Ainge seems to be an afterthought on offense when playing the Pistons and I only found 1 PG who scored 20 pts (Doc Rivers) in a game.
When people ask me about Isiahs defense vs Stockton I ask them to look up what Terry Porter did to Stockton in the WCF and then what he did in the Finals vs the Pistons in 1990. Terry Porter was a liability on offense and defense vs the Pistons in 1990 but avg almost 40ppg vs Stockton a week earlier.
HomoSapien wrote:Warspite, the greatest poster in the history of realgm.
I've been going back and forth between Kidd and Zeke the last few votes. I'm traveling now so can't go in depth like I like to, but I think Isaiah is ne of the more naturally creative offensive point guards that I've ever seen. He could create for both himself and his teammates at a high level. His efficiency doesn't bother me because I think efficiency on an individual basis is very overrated. Once Zeke came into the league he boosted the Pistons from nothing offensively to almost a decade of consistently strong units with a lot of changing parts around him. The Bad Boys won with defense FIRST, but not defense alone. In 91 when Zeke missed time, the defense stayed elite but the offense slipped just enough to show that the team as a whole was much less daunting without the offense.
fpliii wrote:Can anybody break down Isiah's defense for me please? Would be greatly appreciated.
His defense was really good but he was playing with Cheeks, Squid, MJ, DJ as peers. Isiah stole the ball from other PGs more than from passing lanes. His rebounding is very underrated. Isiah avged almost 8 rpg vs the Celtics big3. To his fault Isiah did take possessions off on defense to save energy and because most of the time the other teams PGs were not scoring threats. In my research Ainge seems to be an afterthought on offense when playing the Pistons and I only found 1 PG who scored 20 pts (Doc Rivers) in a game.
When people ask me about Isiahs defense vs Stockton I ask them to look up what Terry Porter did to Stockton in the WCF and then what he did in the Finals vs the Pistons in 1990. Terry Porter was a liability on offense and defense vs the Pistons in 1990 but avg almost 40ppg vs Stockton a week earlier.
Almost 40ppg a week earlier in 1990? Where's this? This looks like the "Isiah's the only guy with a title with no top 50 teammates" claim.
I've been going back and forth between Kidd and Zeke the last few votes. I'm traveling now so can't go in depth like I like to, but I think Isaiah is ne of the more naturally creative offensive point guards that I've ever seen. He could create for both himself and his teammates at a high level. His efficiency doesn't bother me because I think efficiency on an individual basis is very overrated. Once Zeke came into the league he boosted the Pistons from nothing offensively to almost a decade of consistently strong units with a lot of changing parts around him. The Bad Boys won with defense FIRST, but not defense alone. In 91 when Zeke missed time, the defense stayed elite but the offense slipped just enough to show that the team as a whole was much less daunting without the offense.
Would like to write more, but for now, vote zeke
In '91 when Zeke missed time the replacement was (some combination of) Gerald Henderson (washed up), Lance Blanks (never was anybody and a 2 guard), John Long (2 guard, washed up) and playing Dumars ahandful of extra minutes and out of position. That's a low standard barometer.
Just because the parts changed it doesn't mean they weren't good. It depends on the strength (degree) of claim you're making of course. But this sounds like a correlation argument when there's a lot of other turnover at his arrival (and Tripucka considered intially better) against low baselines (improvement "from nothing" which pretty accurately describes what Isiah's predecessors gave from the pg position, ditto the replacements in '91).
fpliii wrote:Can anybody break down Isiah's defense for me please? Would be greatly appreciated.
His defense was really good but he was playing with Cheeks, Squid, MJ, DJ as peers. Isiah stole the ball from other PGs more than from passing lanes. His rebounding is very underrated. Isiah avged almost 8 rpg vs the Celtics big3. To his fault Isiah did take possessions off on defense to save energy and because most of the time the other teams PGs were not scoring threats. In my research Ainge seems to be an afterthought on offense when playing the Pistons and I only found 1 PG who scored 20 pts (Doc Rivers) in a game.
When people ask me about Isiahs defense vs Stockton I ask them to look up what Terry Porter did to Stockton in the WCF and then what he did in the Finals vs the Pistons in 1990. Terry Porter was a liability on offense and defense vs the Pistons in 1990 but avg almost 40ppg vs Stockton a week earlier.
...Huh? It was actually 26 PPG 2 seasons later, not "almost 40 PPG a week earlier".
I will look back in a couple of hours to see if we have any more votes. Right now, I would lean to Drexler among the 3 though I think I favor both Gilmore and Payton over Drexler.
I will go Drexler over Baylor to get the runoff started. Baylor was more explosive but Drexler had such a great package of shooting, passing, defense, and a willingness to play team ball that I have to give him the edge and no one has done a head to head to convince me differently.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
I will look back in a couple of hours to see if we have any more votes. Right now, I would lean to Drexler among the 3 though I think I favor both Gilmore and Payton over Drexler.
I will go Drexler over Baylor to get the runoff started. Baylor was more explosive but Drexler had such a great package of shooting, passing, defense, and a willingness to play team ball that I have to give him the edge and no one has done a head to head to convince me differently.
I vote for Isiah Thomas in the run-off
I think he peaked higher than Clyde, and was a better combination of shooting, passing, defense, and did play team ball enough so he went from superstar to best player on two championship teams.
More complete player. Contributed in just about every way possible. Was a scorer, rebounder, playmaker, defender.
great in transition, really good in the half-court.
Like Q said, just good at everything. Little to no weaknesses.
Played at a high level essentially his entire career.
Has the team results you would want to see from a player this high
ThunderBolt wrote:I’m going to let some of you in on a little secret I learned on realgm. If you don’t like a thread, not only do you not have to comment but you don’t even have to open it and read it. You’re welcome.
Oh wow, this runoff just blew my mind. Not blaming anyone else, but clearly folks like me who got distracted let this thing go in a direction different than it otherwise would have as neither of these two guys has gotten serious discussion before.
My runoff vote is for Clyde Drexler. This is a nostalgic vote for me, as I grew up a Piston fan from the 1986-87 season until February 15, 1989, after which I became a fan of Portland, Utah and Seattle based on their style of play. Portland became my favorite due to their amazingly fun starting 5, led by Glide (though Kersey was my favorite).
As others have said, Clyde struck me as a more complete player. At this point, everyone left has a few blemishes on otherwise stellar careers, and Clyde had a few relatively poor playoff showings, but his game reached higher peaks for a longer period of time, in my view. His play in 1990 and especially 1991 and 1992 was spectacular, and he went on to be a perfect complement to Hakeem in Houston.
There is something to be said about the impact of Isiah's offensive aggression on opposing defenses, and I'm glad to see those late 80s/early 90s Pistons teams get some appreciation for their offense. However, Isiah's offensive aggression sometimes came at the expense of better (at least for a particular game/series) options.
Isiah Thomas 1988 Finals
3 Piston wins: 14.7 PPG and 10.7 APG on 12 FGA/g and 0.496 TS 4 Piston losses: 23.5 PPG and 7.8 APG on 19.75 FGA/g and 0.527 TS
His heroics are certainly worth applauding, but many times that he tried to take over, it sank his team. He's still a tremendous talent and one of the gutsiest players ever, but Clyde's overall body of work is clearly stronger, in my view.
fpliii wrote:Can anybody break down Isiah's defense for me please? Would be greatly appreciated.
His defense was really good but he was playing with Cheeks, Squid, MJ, DJ as peers. Isiah stole the ball from other PGs more than from passing lanes. His rebounding is very underrated. Isiah avged almost 8 rpg vs the Celtics big3. To his fault Isiah did take possessions off on defense to save energy and because most of the time the other teams PGs were not scoring threats. In my research Ainge seems to be an afterthought on offense when playing the Pistons and I only found 1 PG who scored 20 pts (Doc Rivers) in a game.
When people ask me about Isiahs defense vs Stockton I ask them to look up what Terry Porter did to Stockton in the WCF and then what he did in the Finals vs the Pistons in 1990. Terry Porter was a liability on offense and defense vs the Pistons in 1990 but avg almost 40ppg vs Stockton a week earlier.
Almost 40ppg a week earlier in 1990? Where's this? This looks like the "Isiah's the only guy with a title with no top 50 teammates" claim.
Porter's 3 wasn't falling that series, was Isiah defending the 3 exceptionally well? Or is it maybe that 5 games isn't enough.
I have no idea what your personal crusade against Zeke is about but keep posting because it lets everyone see through your horrible agenda. Seriously if his teammates dont play well its Isiahs fault. If Isiahs man gets shut down its a shooting slump. The only solution I can think of is that your confusing Isiah with Billups. Billups couldnt guard me much less any NBA guard. Billups is the guy who actually cost the Pistons wins with his horrible shooting. You never thought that maybe the reason Billups doesnt have many TOs is because he was a spot up shooter and couldnt dribble? His only offensive move was the pump fake and jump into his defender and throw the ball up wildly.
When Dumars goes 1-8 and Vinnie misses all of his shots its up to Isiah to carry the load. Now in your world that seems crazy but when your playing Larry Bird and the Celtics its do or die because they are better.
The simple fact is that Isiah outplayed Larry Bird in 87 and 88 but Bird had better teammates in 87 so the Celtics won. Dantley was a complete no show vs Bernard King and Mchale.
Yes Isiah played hero ball and he won playing hero ball unlike most people. You have every legit right to question the method but the results speak for themselves. The man is 4 injuries from winning 5 straight titles.
Terry Porter avged 29ppg vs Stockton through 4 games in 92 that is my mistake I was off by 2 yrs going from my memory of an event almost 25 yrs ago. Isiah said that Porter couldnt guard any of the Pistons guard and who ever he was guarding they went to. isiah, Joe and Vinnie took turns roasting him and when Porter went to the Drazen came in and then it got worse. I dont know if Isiah shut Porter down but I do know is that between 1985 and 1990 Doc Rivers and Porter were his only guys to score 20pts and Porter needed 15FTs to do it and Scott did it twice.
HomoSapien wrote:Warspite, the greatest poster in the history of realgm.
Warspite wrote: The simple fact is that Isiah outplayed Larry Bird in 87 and 88 but Bird had better teammates in 87 so the Celtics won. Dantley was a complete no show vs Bernard King and Mchale.
That's not accurate. Dantley led Detroit in scoring that series with 23.6 PPG on 0.633 TS. He was particularly torrid in Games 3 and 4. Vinnie Johnson and Joe Dumars also had a great series.
The Detroit pistons are a team of explosive charges. Detonate Isiah Thomas and duck. Put the match to Vinnie Johnson and get out of the way. Ignite Adrian Dantley and run for cover. That is the way they play, and that is the way they embarrassed the Boston Celtics over the weekend at the Pontiac Silverdome to tie the Eastern Conference NBA final at two games apiece.
Boston lost those two by a total of 44 points (122-104 and 145-119, the latter being a playoff record for points scored against the Celts), and there was nothing fluky about either Detroit victory. The Pistons made the Celtics look old and injured, which they are, as well as tepid and tentative, which they have never been before. "It was the Silverdome Mystique," said Thomas with a grin. It must have been something, for Sam Vincent, he of the much-maligned Boston bench, led Boston in scoring in each game with 18 points.
]In the first half of Game 3 on Saturday, Detroit handed the ball to Dantley. Go ahead, Adrian. By halftime he had scored 25 points, and Detroit was off to a 73-53 lead it never lost. Never mind that Dantley didn't score a point in the second half; he had already blasted a crater in the Celtic terrain.
In the second quarter of Game 4, the Pistons spun the wheel and Johnson's number came up. All yours, Vinnie. He scorched the Celtics for 17 points, most of them on his improbable lean-in, splay-legged jumper, and Detroit had a 62-58 lead at the half. Third quarter? My ball again, said Dantley. He scored 10 points in the first four minutes as the Pistons built a 76-65 lead, which grew to 104-88 by the end of the period. Thomas (22 points) and Bill Laimbeer (20) also had their moments in the spotlight.
Teamwork has many facets, and one of them is knowing when to give the ball up and get out of the way. "With them, it seems that if one guy gets rolling, then another guy gets rolling," said Boston's Larry Bird, who never got rolling in either Game 3 or Game 4 (17 and 16 points, respectively).
...
And at the other end they'll see Dantley going around and through his defender, be it Bird (as it was on Saturday) or Kevin McHale (as it was on Sunday).
...
The Piston offense, on the other hand, has been known to go into freeze-frame when Thomas has the ball. Lord knows Isiah can pass in traffic as well as anyone this side of Magic Johnson, but sometimes his movements are so unpredictable, so downright illogical, that his teammates can't figure out how to play off them. It becomes The Isiah Thomas Hour, a show that merits prime time only when his outside jumper is falling.
Which it was not doing in Game 1 in Boston Garden when Thomas shot 6 of 24 from the field. In Game 2, though, Thomas was brilliant, especially in the first half, when he scored 25 of his game-high 36 points, grinning at the Celtic defenders, chattering away like a magpie, driving to the basket, launching unerring outside jumpers. Incredibly, his act played well even in hostile Boston Garden. "Heck, even I enjoy Isiah's act," said McHale. But Thomas didn't have nearly enough help from his frontcourt, especially from Laimbeer, who scored only 2 points, and Dantley, who had only 6 of his 24 in the second half.
In Game 7, the Pistons were leading by 80-79 when Dantley was knocked out with a concussion.
For the Pistons, it was their 18th straight defeat here since Dec. 19, 1982. The series, marked by injuries, fines and dramas like the one last Tuesday when Larry Bird stole Isiah Thomas's pass and certain victory from the Pistons in the final seconds of Game 5, had another big moment today with eight seconds remaining in the third quarter.
It began with Vinnie Johnson losing the ball. As Johnson chased after the ball, he collided with Adrian Dantley, who had joined the chase. They bumped heads, leaving Dantley, the Pistons' top scorer in this series, semiconscious under his own basket. Dantley went to the hospital with a concussion, and Johnson sat out most of the remainder of the game with an ice pack on his aching head.
''It was a big play,'' said Larry Bird, who led the Celtics with 37 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists and did the other things that did not allow the Celtics to lose. ''It helped us out tremendously. It really hurt them. I really hate to see a guy taken out on a stretcher.''
Dantley was taken to Massachusetts General Hospital, where it was determined that he had a concussion and would be kept overnight.
The Detroit Pistons lost everything Saturday--absolutely everything. The game. Their chance to go to the NBA finals for the first time since the franchise settled 30 years ago in Detroit. Their leading scorer, Adrian Dantley. Their sportsmanlike conduct. Maybe even their coach.
...
It was not a Boston fist that sent Dantley to the hospital, though. It was his own teammate's hard head. With eight seconds remaining in the third period and the Pistons leading, 80-79, Dantley, who already had 18 points, pursued a loose ball and got into a head-on collision with Vinnie Johnson.
Dantley was carried off on astretcher. And Johnson, who wore an ice pack on his head when he returned to the bench, scored only two more points after the accident, and never returned to action after being replaced with 7:21 to play. Averaging 18.7 points a game in the series, the man they call "The Microwave"--because he gets so hot, so fast--settled this time for 10.
...
Laimbeer, on the loss of Adrian Dantley: "When he went off, they didn't have to double team us anymore. We couldn't get the open jump shots like we normally would."
I remember this series very well because it was my first ever sports heartbreak.
Warspite wrote: His defense was really good but he was playing with Cheeks, Squid, MJ, DJ as peers. Isiah stole the ball from other PGs more than from passing lanes. His rebounding is very underrated. Isiah avged almost 8 rpg vs the Celtics big3. To his fault Isiah did take possessions off on defense to save energy and because most of the time the other teams PGs were not scoring threats. In my research Ainge seems to be an afterthought on offense when playing the Pistons and I only found 1 PG who scored 20 pts (Doc Rivers) in a game.
When people ask me about Isiahs defense vs Stockton I ask them to look up what Terry Porter did to Stockton in the WCF and then what he did in the Finals vs the Pistons in 1990. Terry Porter was a liability on offense and defense vs the Pistons in 1990 but avg almost 40ppg vs Stockton a week earlier.
Almost 40ppg a week earlier in 1990? Where's this? This looks like the "Isiah's the only guy with a title with no top 50 teammates" claim.
Porter's 3 wasn't falling that series, was Isiah defending the 3 exceptionally well? Or is it maybe that 5 games isn't enough.
I have no idea what your personal crusade against Zeke is about but keep posting because it lets everyone see through your horrible agenda. Seriously if his teammates dont play well its Isiahs fault. If Isiahs man gets shut down its a shooting slump. The only solution I can think of is that your confusing Isiah with Billups. Billups couldnt guard me much less any NBA guard.
Really? Billups, the 2-time All-Defensive 2nd Team, DRAPM in the plus column for 3 seasons during his prime (3 other prime seasons that, while negative, are at or above avg for a PG). He "couldn't guard you, much less any NBA guard"?
Warspite wrote:Billups is the guy who actually cost the Pistons wins with his horrible shooting.
Wat? OK, more on that below.
Warspite wrote:You never thought that maybe the reason Billups doesnt have many TOs is because he was a spot up shooter and couldnt dribble? His only offensive move was the pump fake and jump into his defender and throw the ball up wildly.
Nary a spot-up in there; almost exclusively off the dribble. He'd get defenders on their heels and create like 4-6 feet of space with a crossover and step-back for a triple (where I don't think it can be denied he's among the all-time greats).
Warspite wrote: When Dumars goes 1-8 and Vinnie misses all of his shots its up to Isiah to carry the load.
Well, I won't deny that that was the case. Although I'm not sure how likely that was to occur with Dumars, anyway, who shot a higher TS% and eFG% than Thomas every year their careers overlap except for his rookie season. And it's not as though Mark Aguirre wasn't able to put it in the hoop, too (he also generally shot better than Thomas).
Anyway......My run-off vote: Clyde Drexler (yes, I will get to comment regarding Billups costing Pistons games with his "horrible" (???) shooting; see below)
I actually have Drexler right around 31 (give or take one spot) on my personal ATL. Only reason I didn't lend him support in my initial vote is because Baylor and Kidd are both still at large (both in my top 30).
Thomas, well, I simply think the traditional ("status quo") ranking of Isiah Thomas has always over-credited him. He is, imo, the benefactor of A LOT of nostalgia (because he had a handful of epic/memorable performances in the playoffs, which without fail get at least a mention from all his supporters (who also almost without fail AVOID providing any broader statistical analysis). Many want to measure him based on the height of those few performances, disregarding that the greater body of his career's work doesn't even come close to those handful of games.
His offense is imo overrated, as he is quite simply one of the least efficient "super-stars" of all-time. A couple years ago I'd compared a couple dozen modern(ish) players, primarily perimeter players and/or iso scorers. I was comparing offensive volume and usage, as well as measures of efficiency (particularly weighted against their volume). Recently I updated the info for active players and added in a handful who have been in discussion of late within this project. For simplicity's sake, I just used career rs numbers. Of note, I looked at TS%, relative TS% (to league avg over same years), Pts/Missed FGA (my thinking at the time was that a missed FGA is ALWAYS a potential loss of possession and possibly even a fast-break opportunity for the opponent), Pts/Turnover, and (Pts + Ast)/Turnover. The 30 players I looked at (going from oldest to newest) are: George Gervin Adrian Dantley Alex English Bernard King Larry Bird Isiah Thomas Dominique Wilkins Clyde Drexler Michael Jordan Chris Mullin Reggie Miller Mitch Richmond Gary Payton Jason Kidd Ray Allen Kobe Bryant Allen Iverson Chauncey Billups Tracy McGrady Vince Carter Paul Pierce Dirk Nowitzki Joe Johnson Tony Parker Manu Ginobili Lebron James Dwyane Wade Carmelo Anthony Kevin Durant Derrick Rose
TS%: Isiah is 29th of 30...........Drexler is 21st of 30; Billups is 9th of 30. I'd like to tell you Warspite (well, not really) that Billup's edge here is just due to his FT-shooting, but actually he blows Thomas away in eFG%, too.
Relative TS%: Isiah is 29th of 30 (just 0.34% ahead of Jason Kidd)..........Drexler is 21st of 30; Billups is 7th of 30.
Pts/Missed FGA: Isiah is 26th of 30........Drexler is 17th of 30. Billups is 18th of 30.
Pts/Turnover: Isiah is 29th of 30......Drexler is 20th of 30. Billups is 22nd of 30.
(Pts + Ast)/Turnover: Isiah is 29th of 30......Drexler is 18th of 30. Billups is 12th of 30.
Based on collective impression of these things, Thomas is 29th of these 30 in offensive efficiency. The only one who rates worse is Jason Kidd, although not by much. On that topic, below was a convo from the last thread comparing Kidd and Thomas offensively, which further indicates the offensive gap between them isn't huge:
Spoiler:
tsherkin wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:See, I disagree. To me, this is romanticizing Zeke. He's easy to romanticize because of the dazzling handles and because he didn't shirk from the notion of a little hero ball (especially on a big stage; i.e. playoffs/finals), and he further had a couple of noteworthy epic games doing those things (though no one seems to remember the games where he went 5 of 14 or 6 of 20, etc).
So, a quick peak.
Isiah was never a particularly efficient scorer, I'll give you that. He was better than Kidd (52.1% TS on higher volume in his 20s, fell off VERY sharply in his 30s; Kidd's at 49.8% in his 20s and didn't improve much thereafter aside from his first two years with Dirk in Dallas).
True, though I'd point out that there are outside factors affecting trends in shooting efficiency and overall offensive efficiency in the league: defense schemes of the time, era trends (degree of focus on O vs. D, etc), stylistics, etc......Which is why when comparing players of different time periods I primarily evaluate them relative to the league average of the time. Toward that end, I'd mention that the league avg TS% in the years cited for Isiah was 53.8% (so he's -1.7%). In the years specified for Kidd, the league average was 52.6% (so he's -2.8%): worse, but not by as sizable a margin as you're implying.
Worth mentioning imo that Kidd's career TS% is -2.4% compared to league average over same time period. Thomas's is -2.1%. So, quite close.
tsherkin wrote:More importantly, though, as an overall offensive player, he was a 110+ ORTG guy in three consecutive seasons (111, 115 and 113) from 84-86, while playing 37 mpg and posting 21.2 ppg and 11.9 apg with 2.9 spg, posting a 53.3% TS (though that's not strong relative to league average) and an average ORTG of 113.
League avg ORtg’s those years were 107.6, 107.9, and 107.2. So Zeke was +3.4, +7.1, +5.8 respectively, for an average of +5.3.
Kidd has a 3-consecutive year stretch from ‘99-’01 with ORtg’s of 113 (+10.8), 106 (+1.9), and 104 (+1.0), for average of 107 (+3.9). Those were all star-level/big volume years, too. And fwiw in 09-’11 (two AS or borderline AS years, one a role player year) with ORtg’s of 116 (+7.7), 115 (+7.4), and 108 (+0.7), for average of 113 (+5.3).
tsherkin wrote:FWIW, Kidd's career-highs pre-Dirk are 52.6% TS and 111 ORTG (he was at 110 and 111 in 06 and 07, the only seasons he managed that before Dirk). He was a 106 ORTG player in his pre-Dirk career (50.0% TS).
That’s a 13-year stretch with a 106 ORtg (league average over same period was 105.1, so Kidd was +0.9). Thomas has a 13-year career ORtg of 106 when the league average was 107.5 (-1.5). These are not strong supporting arguments, imo.
tsherkin wrote:My point was that a younger Isiah Thomas was producing individual offense at a level Kidd never managed, and in the process, those Pistons teams were 1st (111.5), 9th (109.6) and 7th (109.0) in team offense. They did pretty well, far better than Kidd's teams over his career.
I’ll grant you the #1 league offense, and without an over-abundance of offensive help that year. Kidd never managed that. Although clearly that was before the team focus shifted to defense (which is when they REALLY started winning, too).
tsherkin wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:The best "younger Isiah" offensive season is '85, no? As Kidd's best overall offensive season (factoring both role and volume against efficiency) I'd probably go with '99.
'85 Thomas Per 100 Possessions: 25.5 pts, 16.6 ast, 4.5 tov, on TS% that was -1.4% compared to league average. 22.2 PER, .173 WS/48, ORtg +7.1 compared to league average.
'99 Kidd Per 100 Possessions: 21.9 pts, 14.0 ast, 3.9 tov, on TS% that was +1.6% compared to league average. 22.5 PER, .188 WS/48, ORtg +10.8 compared to league average. fwiw, also had PI ORAPM of +3.64 (13th best in the league that year).
So to me, a statement like "Kidd dreamed of being as good on O...." just doesn't appear to carry a lot of truth.
This is mildly disingenuous, given that 99 was a lockout-shortened season with the lowest league-average TS% seen since the 76-77 season and a league average ORTG of 102.2. That's something which should be mentioned; we saw the same thing in 11-12, the other lockout season: offense was BRUTAL in that year, the lowest we'd seen since the nasty lows of the early 2000s, and for exactly the same reasons. So looking at relative production over a shortened sample size is a little dodgy as far as legitimacy of analysis. Remember that Kidd's Suns were a 105.8 ORTG team and they played 50 games.
How is that disingenuous? Smaller sample size, true, but it’s not as though 50 games is a drop in the bucket. But otherwise what are you implying? That Kidd had some sort of special advantage because it was a shortened year? If so, why/how?
Are you saying the rest of the league (except for Kidd) just wasn’t as sharp because of the hold-out? And even if that is what you’re saying, shouldn’t we be crediting Kidd for staying sharp while the rest of the league got sloppy?
tsherkin wrote:I don't to be misconstrued as saying Kidd was some scrub, I mean I'm preparing to vote for him in the next 3-5 spots myself anyway because I generally respect what he accomplished as a player, but Isiah's peak offensive value was clearly higher than the best Kidd brought to the table in my view.
That said, I was being hyperbolic....--snip--
OK, this I can live with. Because it was really the hyperbole (“Kidd could only dream….”) that rubbed me the wrong way. I’m not necessarily trying to argue that Kidd was a better offensive player than Isiah. I think there’s ample evidence that he’s pretty close, though.
Combine that with the fact that (imo) it can scarcely be denied that Kidd was the better/more impactful defender, the better rebounder, AND had far superior longevity…….and I just don’t quite see Thomas in the same ballpark as Kidd all-time.
But then Kidd has a substantial edge in defense, rebounding, and longevity.....which for me puts him pretty easily ahead of Thomas all-time. But I digress.....
The gist of it is that Thomas's claim to fame is his offense, and I think his offense has historically been overrated. Drexler's a nice all-around player whose offensive game looks better to me, supported by the above studies, as well as by any traditional comparison: Drexler's career PER is 21.1 (Thomas has only two seasons with PER >21.1; Drexler has FIVE seasons with PER equal or better than Thomas's best). Thomas's best WS/48 is .173.....equal to Drexler's career AVERAGE (he has SIX seasons with better).
In Per 100 numbers, just using a simple volume assessment (Pts + Reb + Ast + Stl + Blk - Tov)...... Thomas's best season is 46.1. Drexler's best is 50.7 (he has FIVE seasons >46.1......all of them on better shooting efficiency, too). Even in the playoffs, comparing primes, the edge in all of the above things goes to Drexler (albeit by a slimmer margin). Thomas doesn't have a defensive argument over him to fill the gap. Drexler also has a small longevity edge, too.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd "Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
-At his peak, he was considered one of the best non-MJ players in the league. Drexler peaked during Isiah's title runs and no one thought that Isiah was better.
Yeah, going to have to go with Glide here. Weird one as I don't recall if he's gotten a single vote before, and I'm still more than half a dozen spots below where I ranked him before the project. I've still got him above Isiah though.
In the end, to me Isiah's a guy whose candidacy at a stage like this is still completely dependent on those titles, which to me were the epitome of an ensemble effort. Those Pistons defenses were phenomenal.
And I'll put it like this: Even if I did totally buy into the pro-Isiah narrative here, it would still be debatable whether he warranted this spot. Do you realize that Kevin Durant already has more Win Shares than Isiah? Not saying Isiah doesn't have longevity edge over Durant, but longevity is a pretty serious issue when a 25 year old can surpass your career total.
Once we combine lack of longevity with the lack of true top-tier respect when we talk about things like MVP candidacy, it's really tough. I mean, it's very easy to argue that Drexler has both prime and longevity edges over Isiah.
