Offseason Thread 6: The Not So Mexican Stand-off Continues

[RunDogGun]

I keep seeing mention of a 5th year. The only way a team can offer a 5 year deal it to pay the supermax. Which would be 5/90. Given that no one here wants to pay 4/64 its really not even a consideration. You CANNOT pay him say 5/75 next offseason. Its either 4 years or 5/90.

If you force him to play out the QO, which no one of his quality has ever been forced to do, you cannot envision a scenario where he resigns. And I believe you will see some serious "moping" during this season.

I don't claim to know the end game here. It certainly looks like they are planning a future without him. Maybe the best training staff in the history of the world told the team not to proceed with him. Maybe they are waiting for the trade offers to improve. But if the goal is to get him to play on a QO and hope that he wants to sign with a team that is over the cap next year, I just don't see that playing out very well for the Suns.

We aren't forcing him to do anything. There has been two things so far. One, we extended the QO, so that we could keep him as a RFA. Next we offered a reasonable 4/$48, which is the same deal Lowry signed. There has been no hardball being played by the Suns, for they are open to negotiating, and have said so numerous times. Bledsoe's camp won't come to the table.

I have no idea where you are getting your info from, but much of it seems very off.

[bwgood77]

I keep seeing mention of a 5th year. The only way a team can offer a 5 year deal it to pay the supermax. Which would be 5/90. Given that no one here wants to pay 4/64 its really not even a consideration. You CANNOT pay him say 5/75 next offseason. Its either 4 years or 5/90.

If you force him to play out the QO, which no one of his quality has ever been forced to do, you cannot envision a scenario where he resigns. And I believe you will see some serious "moping" during this season.

I don't claim to know the end game here. It certainly looks like they are planning a future without him. Maybe the best training staff in the history of the world told the team not to proceed with him. Maybe they are waiting for the trade offers to improve. But if the goal is to get him to play on a QO and hope that he wants to sign with a team that is over the cap next year, I just don't see that playing out very well for the Suns.

I don't think ultimately they will force him to take the QO. I don't think he will anyway regardless because it's too risky for a player as injury prone as him.

[HurricaneKid]

I keep seeing mention of a 5th year. The only way a team can offer a 5 year deal it to pay the supermax. Which would be 5/90. Given that no one here wants to pay 4/64 its really not even a consideration. You CANNOT pay him say 5/75 next offseason. Its either 4 years or 5/90.

If you force him to play out the QO, which no one of his quality has ever been forced to do, you cannot envision a scenario where he resigns. And I believe you will see some serious "moping" during this season.

I don't claim to know the end game here. It certainly looks like they are planning a future without him. Maybe the best training staff in the history of the world told the team not to proceed with him. Maybe they are waiting for the trade offers to improve. But if the goal is to get him to play on a QO and hope that he wants to sign with a team that is over the cap next year, I just don't see that playing out very well for the Suns.

We aren't forcing him to do anything. There has been two things so far. One, we extended the QO, so that we could keep him as a RFA. Next we offered a reasonable 4/$48, which is the same deal Lowry signed. There has been no hardball being played by the Suns, for they are open to negotiating, and have said so numerous times. Bledsoe's camp won't come to the table.

I have no idea where you are getting your info from, but much of it seems very off.

Lowry had a career year but he is a 27 year old who had essentially been booted from two teams due to attitude issues. He was traded for a conditional pick (#12 - Steven Adams) on a 7M/ deal.

Bledsoe is the premier, and its not close, defensive perimeter player in the NBA. His shooting %s have skyrocketed three consecutive years. He is 24 with significant growth left (health permitting).

The two are not comparable. And the gap in expectations over the next 4 years between them is a chasm. And I LIKE Lowry.

Sorry, a $12M/yr is significantly below market. If I were his agent I wouldn't show him the offer. now, I'd be at the table negotiating. But I wouldn't take a 12/ offer to my client. In years 3 and 4 of the deal the cap will be 80-85M, making this deal worth ~9M in today's money. We are talking about Jordan Hill money. YES, Pho has leverage. But they are utilizing it more than any team has ever used it before. THATS the problem I have.

[RunDogGun]

Just saying that "they are not comparable" yet only pumping up Bledsoe, seems like a weak way to start your argument. Bledsoe also had a career season, one in which he couldn't even stay on the floor for more than half the season.

Many gms that have commented on the offer given to Bledsoe, think it's a fair offer. I'm not sure where you get many if your opinions from.

[aIvin adams]

Just saying that "they are not comparable" yet only pumping up Bledsoe, seems like a weak way to start your argument. Bledsoe also had a career season, one in which he couldn't even stay on the floor for more than half the season.

Many gms that have commented on the offer given to Bledsoe, think it's a fair offer. I'm not sure where you get many if your opinions from.

i kinda agree w him that if kyle lowry's contract sets the market, then Bledsoe should get more than 12M/yr.

i'd much rather have Bledsoe locked up for the next four years than Lowry. and I like lowry, too.

[DBoys]

I'm interested in Bledsoe as a non-Suns fan, and imo a few points that are part of the equation need to be kept in mind:
1 If Bledsoe signs a QO, there is NO long-term plus to the team that trades for him. None. That's because his new team gets no Bird rights in the deal, and would have to have cap room next summer to be able to keep him - and if they have that much cap room, they can simply wait until next summer and sign him away without any acquisition cost. How much is half a season worth? Not very much (certainly not a valuable pick).
...I make this my first point because I've tried to figure out if there is ANY value for my team in trading for him, and there is none, no matter how I look at it. A trade with a QO-ed Bledsoe can't happen before Jan 1-ish (with his permission, of course), and with the issue of team chemistry, by the time he becomes a fit on my team it may be too late to really help for this season. And since my team probably won't have cap room next summer, as they will have other priorities, he'll be gone in the summer. Want him, but can't see any value to getting him.
2 Bledsoe cannot wait out the Suns. He has two choices (sign the best deal the Suns will offer, or sign the QO) but if he doesn't do one or the other by Oct 1, he's screwed because then he will have only 1 offer (whatever deal the Suns want to offer) to pick from.
3 If Bledsoe signs the QO, the Suns will still have the ability to outbid everyone next summer. Bledsoe can pretend to be butthurt by the lack of what he wants right now, but if he's really about getting more money, the Suns are still going to be in the drivers' seat in 2015. (That assumes, of course, that they would outbid everyone else, which is certainly not a sure thing from Sarver's past tendencies. But that's a different matter.) In any event, if the Suns at some point are going to be compelled to offer him a 5-year max deal to keep him, with the QO they can get a discount year that averages their net outlay over 6 years rather than 5, which certainly gives them another legit reason to stick to their guns at 4/48.

[SLODragon]

Maybe I'm crazy but I would love to see Rudy Gay in Suns uniform. After watching him in USA team it seems like he got in shape, and he played some good team basketball. Something different than last years, he deffinitely looked good. And if Hayward and similar players getting max contracts, than Gay is max-worthly too.

I don't know how much value Gay have. I would try for
Tucker+Bledsoe for Gay+Collison

[RunDogGun]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... yky01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ser01.html

There are their stats, and very comparable. Although Lowry had almost two more assists per game. Looking at their advance stats, I didn't think I would see them so close, the way you described them (Bledsoe 110/106, Lowry 118/106 for off/def).

It was a fair offer extended to Eric, considering it is unknown whether he can handle starter minutes for an entire season, without his knee blowing out.

[RunDogGun]

Just saying that "they are not comparable" yet only pumping up Bledsoe, seems like a weak way to start your argument. Bledsoe also had a career season, one in which he couldn't even stay on the floor for more than half the season.

Many gms that have commented on the offer given to Bledsoe, think it's a fair offer. I'm not sure where you get many if your opinions from.

i kinda agree w him that if kyle lowry's contract sets the market, then Bledsoe should get more than 12M/yr.

i'd much rather have Bledsoe locked up for the next four years than Lowry. and I like lowry, too.

You agree that they aren't even comparable?

[HurricaneKid]

Just saying that "they are not comparable" yet only pumping up Bledsoe, seems like a weak way to start your argument. Bledsoe also had a career season, one in which he couldn't even stay on the floor for more than half the season.

Many gms that have commented on the offer given to Bledsoe, think it's a fair offer. I'm not sure where you get many if your opinions from.

After Lowry's second best year ever he was traded for #12 in a crappy draft on a 7m/ deal with several years remaining. Thats what the team thought of his attitude. He himself acknowledged it was coming because of the feud with the coach.

There is a fundamental lack of understanding of age curves going on here. you would normally expect to see two more years of significant development, then 3 years of plateau at his physical peak. Even if you chop a few years off for health, the EV is sky high.

It really depends on his health. And thats information I don't have access to. If he was completely healthy he would be getting his 5/90 deal. Based on performance his value is significantly better than 4/48M.

[aIvin adams]

Just saying that "they are not comparable" yet only pumping up Bledsoe, seems like a weak way to start your argument. Bledsoe also had a career season, one in which he couldn't even stay on the floor for more than half the season.

Many gms that have commented on the offer given to Bledsoe, think it's a fair offer. I'm not sure where you get many if your opinions from.

i kinda agree w him that if kyle lowry's contract sets the market, then Bledsoe should get more than 12M/yr.

i'd much rather have Bledsoe locked up for the next four years than Lowry. and I like lowry, too.

You agree that they aren't even comparable?

i'd say they're comparable but in the same sense that Disneyland is comparable to Universal Studios.

I mean, they are similar to each other and they probably cost similar amounts but one is worth more than the other and it's an easy choice for me.

[gaspar]

I keep seeing mention of a 5th year. The only way a team can offer a 5 year deal it to pay the supermax. Which would be 5/90. Given that no one here wants to pay 4/64 its really not even a consideration. You CANNOT pay him say 5/75 next offseason. Its either 4 years or 5/90.

This is not true.

If you force him to play out the QO, which no one of his quality has ever been forced to do, you cannot envision a scenario where he resigns. And I believe you will see some serious "moping" during this season.

1. No one is forcing him to take the QO. It's his choice. He has $48 on the table.
2. Bledsoe won't be "moping" if he wants to get a max contract next summer.
3. If he has a great year in Phoenix next season (makes an All-Star game, All- NBA team etc.) and has to choose between 90/5 from Phoenix or 4/70 from someone else, he will take the Suns offer IMO.

[HurricaneKid]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lowryky01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ser01.html

There are their stats, and very comparable. Although Lowry had almost two more assists per game. Looking at their advance stats, I didn't think I would see them so close, the way you described them (Bledsoe 110/106, Lowry 118/106 for off/def).

It was a fair offer extended to Eric, considering it is unknown whether he can handle starter minutes for an entire season, without his knee blowing out.

DRTG is entirely worthless. Its just the points allowed/100 poss while you are on the floor.

If you look at the +/- and don't even do any adjusting, the Suns with Bledsoe on the floor are 5.5 points/100 poss better defensively when he is on the floor. For Lowry, its a -.6. When Bledsoe was out opponents eFG% went up 2.4%.

Again, the question is health. And if there was ever an organization who I would have complete faith in it would be the Suns training staff.

[bwgood77]

I think the likeliest team he would leave for next summer for a little less money would be the Kings to play with Boogie.

Many mention the Lakers will offer him a deal and there was a rumor saying he would (though that could have come from Rich Paul for all we know) but if they wanted to sign him they could have signed him to an offer sheet this summer. They seemed to be set to give out only two year contracts so they would have super max cap space in 2016 when Durant and other big names become free agents.

They may have switched their thinking now after striking out with big names this summer, but I don't think it's any certainty they offer him a max.

The fact is there is just not much of a market for point guards, and Rondo will also be a FA next summer on a young team that drafted Marcus Smart for the future.

[DBoys]

I keep seeing mention of a 5th year. The only way a team can offer a 5 year deal it to pay the supermax. Which would be 5/90. Given that no one here wants to pay 4/64 its really not even a consideration. You CANNOT pay him say 5/75 next offseason. Its either 4 years or 5/90.

This is not true.

Great point, Gaspar. If he signs the QO and stays in PHX all season, the Suns would be the only team next summer that can offer him 5-years, but while we have focused on max deals since that what he covets, a Suns' deal for him next summer can be a deal that starts at ANY amount up to the max. They would also be the only team that can offer him 7.5% raises (everyone else would be limited to 4.5% raises). And those advantages would only be available to him if he decides to stay with the Suns.

[RunDogGun]

i kinda agree w him that if kyle lowry's contract sets the market, then Bledsoe should get more than 12M/yr.

i'd much rather have Bledsoe locked up for the next four years than Lowry. and I like lowry, too.

You agree that they aren't even comparable?

i'd say they're comparable but in the same sense that Disneyland is comparable to Universal Studios.

I mean, they are similar to each other and they probably cost similar amounts but one is worth more than the other and it's an easy choice for me.

I put up their stats, and if you didn't look at the name, there isn't much difference between the two. Now your opinion, because you know what one of the players can do on your team, might be bias, but it is more like Disneyland vs Disneyworld. I'll let you choose who is who.

[RunDogGun]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lowryky01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ser01.html

There are their stats, and very comparable. Although Lowry had almost two more assists per game. Looking at their advance stats, I didn't think I would see them so close, the way you described them (Bledsoe 110/106, Lowry 118/106 for off/def).

It was a fair offer extended to Eric, considering it is unknown whether he can handle starter minutes for an entire season, without his knee blowing out.

DRTG is entirely worthless. Its just the points allowed/100 poss while you are on the floor.

If you look at the +/- and don't even do any adjusting, the Suns with Bledsoe on the floor are 5.5 points/100 poss better defensively when he is on the floor. For Lowry, its a -.6. When Bledsoe was out opponents eFG% went up 2.4%.

Again, the question is health. And if there was ever an organization who I would have complete faith in it would be the Suns training staff.

Oh, so they are comparable? But only when you do it, and it fits your opinion? How about the assists? Lowry clearly runs the offense better than Bledsoe. It isn't a chasm, but neither is any of their stats, like you suggested, or over exaggerated, as I see it.

Lowry is the better three point shooter and free-throw shooter. But I guess that means nothing because he has lived three more years than Bledsoe.

[aIvin adams]

You agree that they aren't even comparable?

i'd say they're comparable but in the same sense that Disneyland is comparable to Universal Studios.

I mean, they are similar to each other and they probably cost similar amounts but one is worth more than the other and it's an easy choice for me.

I put up their stats, and if you didn't look at the name, there isn't much difference between the two. Now your opinion, because you know what one of the players can do on your team, might be bias, but it is more like Disneyland vs Disneyworld. I'll let you choose who is who.

as Hurricane pointed out, Bledsoe's greatest strength is his defense, which is elite. i don't think that shows up as prominently in statistics as offensive contributions, where lowry and bledsoe are admittedly similar.

the stats also don't express the difference in potential.

if you think it's a toss-up between Lowry and Bledsoe, then that's reasonable and I won't try to persuade you. but i think Bledsoe is a markedly better player/prospect and so if Lowry's contract set the market, then I would expect Bledsoe to receive more.

[RunDogGun]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lowryky01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ser01.html

There are their stats, and very comparable. Although Lowry had almost two more assists per game. Looking at their advance stats, I didn't think I would see them so close, the way you described them (Bledsoe 110/106, Lowry 118/106 for off/def).

It was a fair offer extended to Eric, considering it is unknown whether he can handle starter minutes for an entire season, without his knee blowing out.

DRTG is entirely worthless. Its just the points allowed/100 poss while you are on the floor.

If you look at the +/- and don't even do any adjusting, the Suns with Bledsoe on the floor are 5.5 points/100 poss better defensively when he is on the floor. For Lowry, its a -.6. When Bledsoe was out opponents eFG% went up 2.4%.

Again, the question is health. And if there was ever an organization who I would have complete faith in it would be the Suns training staff.

Got it, so drtg is useless, but saying an opponent's efg% is better? Wouldn't that depend on who is also on the floor? Does that stat also show that we had to start Green half the season, and that those stats might be altered by the quality of players from the other team.

Again, the stats are very very similar. No huge outlier sats that clearly sets them apart. Bledsoe's ability to stay healthy for an entire season playing starter minutes is what set his market value. Sure there might be a couple teams that would jump at the chance to pay him more, but more than likely, those teams don't care if they go over the cap, and have the ease to just say it, without having to actually do it. No team has made an offer to Eric, and no team is willing to give up much to get him.

[HurricaneKid]

You agree that they aren't even comparable?

i'd say they're comparable but in the same sense that Disneyland is comparable to Universal Studios.

I mean, they are similar to each other and they probably cost similar amounts but one is worth more than the other and it's an easy choice for me.

I put up their stats, and if you didn't look at the name, there isn't much difference between the two. Now your opinion, because you know what one of the players can do on your team, might be bias, but it is more like Disneyland vs Disneyworld. I'll let you choose who is who.

If there is no difference between the stats you are looking at the wrong stats.