RealGM Top 100 List #34

[KD35Brah]

KD was not top 5 in 2010 imo. 2011 is debatable, he had no argument over Dirk LBJ Wade or Dwight i know that, then you have Rose, Kobe, and Cp3 who would have a case over KD so ill stick with my original top 10 for 5 years.

Season rankings for Durant:

MVP Shares
2010: #2
2011: #5
2012: #2
2013: #2
2014: #1

RPOY Shares
2010: #5
2011: #6
2012: #2
2013: #2
2014: #2

So you're saying he was barely seen as top 5 in 2010 and wasn't seen as top 5 in 2011 (by the realgm voters who vote for player of the year not "Most Valuable Player") and that somehow doesn't prove his point?

I have not been able to follow the threads like I've liked too (for example I saw someone mention a great Gilmore post and I missed it and haven't had the time to find it) but I was able to read this thread and while the argument for KD is strong it is still based on 3 years of ATG level play and 2 other years of top 10 level play compared to 14 years of top 30-20 level play (he was an all star for twice the duration of KD's career). That's before taking into account how horrible his first 2 seasons were and his questionable playoff performance against good defenses without Westbrook to help. Other than having a good team around him what separates KD from TMac? I mean I get he needs to be voted in earlier because he's proven more deep into the playoffs (mainly because TMac's teammates weren't good enough to get him a shot) but looking at their careers they both have 5 top 10 level seasons (KD has 10-14, Mac has 01-05), a great season where they would've won MVP in most situations (14 and 03). The only difference to me is that individually TMac has 2 extra valuable seasons and no individual playoff failures and KD has team success and the benefit of being the clear second best player in the league (in a league with prime/peak Kobe, Duncan, Shaq, and KG he wouldn't have this advantage).

This is based on what? The Memphis series? That is the only series he has played without Westbrook(you can include Houston 2013 if you want) and that was against the 56 win Grizzlies, the 2nd best Defense in the league the RS and Playoffs anchored by the DPOY. Are you going to blame Durant for not winning against the Grizzlies after losing his starting PG who averaged 24PPG and 7apg? That is a huge gap of production that was missing from the team. Not everyone can face crap teams in the Playoffs as if it were the East. It's funny because Jason Kidd didn't face a team in the Eastern Conference in 2002 and 2003 that won as many games or had a SRS rating as high as the 2013 Grizzlies.

Did you even take a look at how bad Perkins, Thabo and Ibaka(3 STARTERS shot below .484% TS, Perkins shot .302% TS) played in that playoff run? Did you conveniently ignore that? Before this year's playoffs Westbrook has disappeared A LOT of times in most series, times where he would volume shoot(more FGAs than Durant) at .500% TS. So where did this myth that Durant doesn't play well without Westbrook come from?

You try to discredit Durant by pointing out the situation he is in and then you go on to list Kobe, Duncan, AND Shaq who have been in better situations most of their careers?

[Warspite]

Run off vote Kevin Durant


This eras Gervin, Monroe, Hudson. Great stats reached the NBA FInals and MVP accomplishment.

[SactoKingsFan]

I don't think Durant's last 5 seasons are quite enough to rank him over Kidd, who in addition to having a huge longevity edge, was a top 3 defensive PG and provided an elite combination of passing/playmaking and rebounding (9 seasons w/ AST per 100 >= 12 and TRB per 100 >= 9, 15 seasons w/ AST per 100 >= 10 and TRB per 100 >= 8). Durant will most likely surpass Kidd after two more seasons, but I'm not ready to give him the overall career edge.

Run-off Vote: Jason Kidd

Sent from my LG-D800 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[RayBan-Sematra]

Durant is so good.
Probably already has a multiple years better then Kidd's best.
And yet Durant only has 5-6 elite years by this point.
Kidd has more then double that.

Vote : Kidd
The fact that Durant almost seems like a reasonable candidate at this point shows how great he is though.

[Basketballefan]

More accurate to say that Durant was top 5 for 5 years (include #2 for 3 consecutive years).

KD was not top 5 in 2010 imo. 2011 is debatable, he had no argument over Dirk LBJ Wade or Dwight i know that, then you have Rose, Kobe, and Cp3 who would have a case over KD so ill stick with my original top 10 for 5 years.

Season rankings for Durant:

MVP Shares
2010: #2
2011: #5
2012: #2
2013: #2
2014: #1

RPOY Shares
2010: #5
2011: #6
2012: #2
2013: #2
2014: #2

I don't weigh this type of data heavily.

[lukekarts]

Kidd was pretty good for a while but never 'I need him on my team' good, in the same way that almost every player on this list is.

There's limited evidence that suggests Kidd is absolutely in that top tier of guards; and I'm pretty sceptical about the value of point guards generally (even more so when they're pretty bad scorers in the case of Kidd) - I find it very hard to pick one over an MVP calibre wing.

In particular, if I asked myself who would I rather have - Durant up until now, or Kidd for his career, I'd take Durant without hesitation.

So here goes: VOTE: Kevin Durant

[Clyde Frazier]

Runoff vote - Kidd

I was planning to vote for gilmore, but just didn't have time to do a full write up. Watching more footage of him, I'm really impressed with his game, and I tend to value ABA play a little higher than some, so he seems deserving in this range.

Anyway, I ultimately have to go with kidd here as I don't think you can just overlook longevity completely with durant. I personally didn't with paul, either, but at least he's had a longer sustained prime. Durant hasn't even played 10 seasons in the NBA, and even if you put less stress on longevity, it just doesn't add up to me.

It actually makes me think of mullin, who had one of the more impressive 4-5 year runs we've seen. And yet, he ranked 93rd in the 2011 top 100. Of course he wasn't AS good as durant, and their team success further separates them, but you can't pin that on one player. Bernard king comes to mind as well.

Kidd's finals runs with the nets were pretty impressive, even if the teams they beat to get there weren't sensational. He ran a team of average talent as well as anyone possibly could. I do value kidd's post prime years more than I do other star players. His impact definitely went beyond the box score having an innate basketball sense that most players don't have. I was also impressed with his ability to defend well post prime using his size and instincts to his advantage.

Kidd vs. Payton has to be one of the best comparisons you can make in this project. I give kidd the slight edge as I consider him to be a better playoff performer over the course of his career.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

Much greater peak, voting for Kevin Durant
I still think Kevin did enough to be considered way earlier than this and his best 4-5 years are already to another level compared to anybody still to be nominated.

[Quotatious]

I was planning to vote for gilmore, but just didn't have time to do a full write up. Watching more footage of him, I'm really impressed with his game, and I tend to value ABA play a little higher than some, so he seems deserving in this range.

I'm glad to see that someone finally considers Gilmore as a fully deserving candidate. At this point, I'd really vote for him in a heartbeat, if he was getting more traction (read - if there was a chance that someone else would vote for him). I'm ready to reinforce the case that you will make for him, if I'll feel like I could add anything valuable.

FWIW - Gilmore was ranked 34th on the 2011 list. We're at 34 right now, so it seems like the right time for him. One thing in particular makes me think that he's underrated - Ewing is in since #22, and I find it really hard to believe that he was so much better than Artis.

[penbeast0]

I was planning to vote for gilmore, but just didn't have time to do a full write up. Watching more footage of him, I'm really impressed with his game, and I tend to value ABA play a little higher than some, so he seems deserving in this range.

I'm glad to see that someone finally considers Gilmore as a fully deserving candidate. At this point, I'd really vote for him in a heartbeat, if he was getting more traction (read - if there was a chance that someone else would vote for him). I'm ready to reinforce the case that you will make for him, if I'll feel like I could add anything valuable.

FWIW - Gilmore was ranked 34th on the 2011 list. We're at 34 right now, so it seems like the right time for him. One thing in particular makes me think that he's underrated - Ewing is in since #22, and I find it really hard to believe that he was so much better than Artis.

Someone has to take the lead writing Gilmore up; if you feel strongly about him, it should probably be you. Last time I think I had him over Ewing but have switched their places in my mental list upon reading and listening to people here. He or Gervin are my next candidates but right now my primary candidate is Payton.

[ronnymac2]

Vote: Jason Kidd

I get that this is basically peak vs. longevity. But if I wasn't convinced Jason Kidd's average prime level of play was at a certain high level, I'd have no problem taking the clearly superior peak player in KD.

But the posts in this project have, not convinced me, but reaffirmed for me that Kidd was a major impact prime player. I think offensively, he's got some of that Larry Bird in him where he moves the ball to where it needs to go quickly. He's a connector. And on the other side, he might be the best defensive point guard ever, mainly because he was a small forward on defense.

[E-Balla]

Season rankings for Durant:

MVP Shares
2010: #2
2011: #5
2012: #2
2013: #2
2014: #1

RPOY Shares
2010: #5
2011: #6
2012: #2
2013: #2
2014: #2

So you're saying he was barely seen as top 5 in 2010 and wasn't seen as top 5 in 2011 (by the realgm voters who vote for player of the year not "Most Valuable Player") and that somehow doesn't prove his point?

I have not been able to follow the threads like I've liked too (for example I saw someone mention a great Gilmore post and I missed it and haven't had the time to find it) but I was able to read this thread and while the argument for KD is strong it is still based on 3 years of ATG level play and 2 other years of top 10 level play compared to 14 years of top 30-20 level play (he was an all star for twice the duration of KD's career). That's before taking into account how horrible his first 2 seasons were and his questionable playoff performance against good defenses without Westbrook to help. Other than having a good team around him what separates KD from TMac? I mean I get he needs to be voted in earlier because he's proven more deep into the playoffs (mainly because TMac's teammates weren't good enough to get him a shot) but looking at their careers they both have 5 top 10 level seasons (KD has 10-14, Mac has 01-05), a great season where they would've won MVP in most situations (14 and 03). The only difference to me is that individually TMac has 2 extra valuable seasons and no individual playoff failures and KD has team success and the benefit of being the clear second best player in the league (in a league with prime/peak Kobe, Duncan, Shaq, and KG he wouldn't have this advantage).

This is based on what? The Memphis series? That is the only series he has played without Westbrook(you can include Houston 2013 if you want) and that was against the 56 win Grizzlies, the 2nd best Defense in the league the RS and Playoffs anchored by the DPOY. Are you going to blame Durant for not winning against the Grizzlies after losing his starting PG who averaged 24PPG and 7apg? That is a huge gap of production that was missing from the team. Not everyone can face crap teams in the Playoffs as if it were the East. It's funny because Jason Kidd didn't face a team in the Eastern Conference in 2002 and 2003 that won as many games or had a SRS rating as high as the 2013 Grizzlies.

Did you even take a look at how bad Perkins, Thabo and Ibaka(3 STARTERS shot below .484% TS, Perkins shot .302% TS) played in that playoff run? Did you conveniently ignore that? Before this year's playoffs Westbrook has disappeared A LOT of times in most series, times where he would volume shoot(more FGAs than Durant) at .500% TS. So where did this myth that Durant doesn't play well without Westbrook come from?

You try to discredit Durant by pointing out the situation he is in and then you go on to list Kobe, Duncan, AND Shaq who have been in better situations most of their careers?

I'm not talking about him losing I'm talking about him not playing that well. I know its one series but its literally the only series where he to play advanced defenses without WB and he didn't look too hot. He also looked bad playing Memphis this season (its probably Tony Allen) and if that's the case that's am even bigger issue because strong, quick guards can lock him down (think of young Dirk).

The main reason I brought that up was for the TMac/KD parallel. I want to rank TMac higher because he never showed he couldn't perform in the playoffs but he was never given the chance to perform past one round (if 01-05 was a single playoff run it would be seen as one of the greatest).

[Clyde Frazier]

I pretty much give star players the benefit of the doubt when they have a bad series:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... c_playoffs

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... d_playoffs

Was Durant awful? No, and OKC still won the series (although the randolph suspension is a pretty big asterisk), but it certainly wasn't up to his MVP standards. Also, anyone who watched it should be in awe of what 6'4" tony allen was able to do to the guy. It was kinda unthinkable.

[bondom34]

I pretty much give star players the benefit of the doubt when they have a bad series:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... c_playoffs

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... d_playoffs

Was Durant awful? No, and OKC still won the series (although the randolph suspension is a pretty big asterisk), but it certainly wasn't up to his MVP standards. Also, anyone who watched it should be in awe of what 6'4" tony allen was able to do to the guy. It was kinda unthinkable.

I think he meant the Memphis series in 2013.

[Clyde Frazier]

I pretty much give star players the benefit of the doubt when they have a bad series:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... c_playoffs

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... d_playoffs

Was Durant awful? No, and OKC still won the series (although the randolph suspension is a pretty big asterisk), but it certainly wasn't up to his MVP standards. Also, anyone who watched it should be in awe of what 6'4" tony allen was able to do to the guy. It was kinda unthinkable.

I think he meant the Memphis series in 2013.

Yeah, I realize that. The 2014 series was just more fresh in my memory. Memphis is a bad match up for durant. He performed similarly in 2013 individually.

[Texas Chuck]

I suspect it won't be but another year or two until Durant has the post game to make putting Tony Allen on him a bad idea. Now Tony Allen is one of the best perimeter defenders of this generation, but once Durant has a post game.....

And Durant always adds something to his game every year and has been open about Dirk being one of the guys he "steals" from. So the post game is coming.

In 3 years, Durant may well be pushing for a spot in the top 25, but for now the mid-30's(and behind Kidd ) seems about right.

[penbeast0]

Jason Kidd (12)---trex_8063, Quotatious, Doctor MJ, drza, Chuck Texas, ronnymac2, Clyde Frazier, RayBan-Sematra, SactoKingsFan, PCProductions, basketballefan, magicmer1

Kevin Durant (8)---RSCD_3, DQuinn1575, batmana, tsherkin, penbeast0, Ryoka Hibiki, lukekarts, Warspite

Looks like Jason Kidd gets selected here.

[Owly]

I'll vote Durant.

I'd likely have voted him or Gilmore in the main vote if I had time for serious, well-thought through, time consuming musings and postings. At the start of the project I don't know if I'd have considered him this high. I hadn't particularly thought it through (didn't have any sense of mental range for him, not that I particularly do for others but I do have both metrics and older lists as a vague starting point, and Durant has been making leaps in the former in terms of changing career value each year, and hasn't been on the latter) and such was the conservativity in putting LeBron in elite quarters in some circles - that I'd heard anyway - (despite MVPs, metrics etc) until recently perhaps I might have been thinking of him as lower.

Still I came in with a notion of career value that acknowledges an exceptional peak (or exceptionally high level performance) does swing the title odds more than "equal" goodness spread more thinly and Durant has 6 all-star level season but more importantly

2 historic seasons (there have been 53 player seasons with 28+ PER, 18 seasons with .290+ WS/48, both with min 500 minutes) - '13, '14

2 peripheral serious MVP consideration seasons (that is to say that's the level the seasons are at, more than people seriously thought of someone ahead of LeBron these years) - '10, '12

and then another good, 1st Team All-NBA though though not necessarily clearly top 5 season.

People have posted RAPM stuff which cast a seed of doubt. Without a great understanding in this area my thoughts would be (a) is it redundancy with another shot creator, (b) are the lower earlier years based on low priors relating to a tail from the rookie negative prior, and then Durant's unimpressive - boxscore wise at least, he won RotY - rookie year, (c) what is his D really like? In anycase I'm not confident enough in those numbers (mostly because of insufficient familiarity, slightly because of some discomfort or queries with those type of numbers, at least by themselves) to give them major weight. His very strong RS stretch sans Westbrook probably helps at the margin.

Anyway I'm not quite feeling Kidd just yet. Not sure I'd have him over say GP at the point, for example. Metrics aside I'm not a fan of inefficient shooting in my PG. I like his roundedness elsewhere though.

Just seen that this is way late in posting. Have posted anyway to show how I would have gone.