My Thoughts on the Game

[zman1]

Being fast does not equal being a deep threat. Who are the best deep threats in the game right now? Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffrey, Brandon Marshall....

If a team is reliable strictly on speed to stretch the field, it's relatively easy to defend. It's harder when the WR has the ability to go over top of the DBs in a jump ball situation.

Ellington runs a 4.3. Boldin ran a 4.7. So, in .3 seconds Ellington has run 40 yards. In 4.3 seconds Boldin has gone 37 yards. Given that we tend to only see WRs running behind DBs when there is coverage breakdown, how important are the 3 additional yards Ellington gets?

Crabtree is listed as 4.54 (though he never ran at the combine), so he goes 38 yards in 4.3 seconds. How crucial is that extra 2 yards Ellington covers?

Now, part two of the question is which of the WRs are you more confident in catching the ball:
Ellington vs Boldin?
Ellington vs Crabtree?

Ellington has a use in the offense, but he's not a deep threat, and he should not be playing over Crabtree (or Boldin or Johnson). If we're looking to add a deep threat, he shouldn't play over Lloyd, though he likely fits what we're doing on offense currently more than Lloyd.

2 or 3 yards beyond the DB = wide open for a long pass. And who is more likely to catch a pass, a receiver who is covered by the DB or a receiver that has 2 or 3 yards on a DB?

[Ease_Ur_Storm]

2 or 3 yards beyond the DB = wide open for a long pass. And who is more likely to catch a pass, a receiver who is covered by the DB or a receiver that has 2 or 3 yards on a DB?[/quote]

If it were that easy to get open by 2 or 3 yards with speed alone then Ginn would be a superstar WR. A receiver needs to be able to put pressure on db's with other threats to open things up vertically or they will simply not get open at all. Speed can kill, but speed alone doesn't kill.

I would much rather have two slower WR's who can get open or make tough catches in traffic like we have right now than a limited WR that only has only speed. If Ellington really gets going in this offense it will be because of his quickness in and out of breaks compared to straight line speed. Johnson is out there because he has an unconventional style that confuses DB's and gets him open consistently. We all want a speed threat on this offense to open things up, but if we traded back for a player like Ginn it would make the offense a lot worse.

[Yoshi]

No penalties on defense. But 10 penalties on offense.

Also Vernon said he will be okay, but he was still in a lot of pain. Anthony Davis had his knee wrapped and needed crutches.

Looks as if AD will be out for a considerable period of time, although not for the entire season.

[Jikkle]

Roman calling for more passes isn't really the issue perse but more of the fact we seem ill equipped to do it.

We need to be able to pass the ball because we saw what happened when we tried to run the ball against good defensive lines and it was just running Gore into a brick wall for 2 yards a carry if that.

The primary issue is that the offensive line has been terrible in pass protection so far into the season.

What's worse is everyone seems to take a turn screwing up. At least if you have problems on one side or the other you could shift an RB to help block that side and the QB would know he better be ready for pressure that side. But so far sometimes it's Martin, sometimes it's Iupati, sometimes it's Boone, sometimes it's Kilgore, and sometimes it's Stately.

The other issue is I just don't think Roman has that great of a grasp of a passing attack. He was a run game coordinator at Stanford and he was probably just the run game coordinator and not a full on coordinator for a reason.

But all in all I feel if we could get some consistent pass blocking from the O line that will lead to Kap being more effective as a passer and that will lead to things opening up in the running game as teams have to respect the passing game more.

[Jikkle]

No penalties on defense. But 10 penalties on offense.

Also Vernon said he will be okay, but he was still in a lot of pain. Anthony Davis had his knee wrapped and needed crutches.

Looks as if AD will be out for a considerable period of time, although not for the entire season.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/49ers/2014/09/30/notes-anthony-davis-looking-better-cox-willis-smith-atop-defensive-stats/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+49ersHotRead+%2849ers+Hot+Read%29

Even better news now for AD as it seems like he might have a chance to play this week but I would put the odds of him returning the following week.

[49er4life1979]

No penalties on defense. But 10 penalties on offense.

Also Vernon said he will be okay, but he was still in a lot of pain. Anthony Davis had his knee wrapped and needed crutches.

Looks as if AD will be out for a considerable period of time, although not for the entire season.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/49ers/2014/09/30/notes-anthony-davis-looking-better-cox-willis-smith-atop-defensive-stats/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+49ersHotRead+%2849ers+Hot+Read%29

Even better news now for AD as it seems like he might have a chance to play this week but I would put the odds of him returning the following week.

Yea I just read that AD was walking with a limp but no crutches. Vernon may play this Sunday.

[49rangER]

This game somewhat reminded me of the 2011 comeback on the eagles that started the niners success.

Almost similar was just smith running down for the fumble. I realize in 2011 smith made the play but it seemed similar.


Sent from my iPad using RealGM Forums

[Hangman_52]

http://www.49ers.com/video/videos/Micd- ... fb8fe08a64

[imac_21]

Being fast does not equal being a deep threat. Who are the best deep threats in the game right now? Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffrey, Brandon Marshall....

If a team is reliable strictly on speed to stretch the field, it's relatively easy to defend. It's harder when the WR has the ability to go over top of the DBs in a jump ball situation.

Ellington runs a 4.3. Boldin ran a 4.7. So, in .3 seconds Ellington has run 40 yards. In 4.3 seconds Boldin has gone 37 yards. Given that we tend to only see WRs running behind DBs when there is coverage breakdown, how important are the 3 additional yards Ellington gets?

Crabtree is listed as 4.54 (though he never ran at the combine), so he goes 38 yards in 4.3 seconds. How crucial is that extra 2 yards Ellington covers?

Now, part two of the question is which of the WRs are you more confident in catching the ball:
Ellington vs Boldin?
Ellington vs Crabtree?

Ellington has a use in the offense, but he's not a deep threat, and he should not be playing over Crabtree (or Boldin or Johnson). If we're looking to add a deep threat, he shouldn't play over Lloyd, though he likely fits what we're doing on offense currently more than Lloyd.

2 or 3 yards beyond the DB = wide open for a long pass. And who is more likely to catch a pass, a receiver who is covered by the DB or a receiver that has 2 or 3 yards on a DB?

Who said 2 or 3 yards beyond the DB? Did you ignore where I said the only time WRs tend to get open behind the defense is on coverage breakdowns? How many WRs in the league straight up run past CBs on go routes? We aren't talking about Ellington lining up side by side with Boldin to race down the field. This isn't the Olympics.

I'm going to assume that you throwing out a red herring and completely ignoring everything I said is an implicit acknowledgement that Ellington is not the best deep threat on the team. The idea that fastest runner = best deep threat is one of the stupider ideas to be presented for discussion. It's the equivalent of arguing strongest arm = best deep throwing QB.

I will further state that anyone who thinks Ellington should be promoted over Crabtree, Boldin or Johnson must be drunk.

[ChrisPozz]

I don't disagree with those, but what does he add to Boldin and Stevie, more of the same. Plus he is injury prone. I think that if Quinton or Ellington are faster, adding them would give the defense more issues to deal with. Crabs is fine, but not great, no better than the other two starting WR.

Crabtree is significantly better than Stevie, and a considerably different WR than Boldin. Crabtree is a shifty, great in space WR. Crabtree may not take the short pass and break it for a TD (outside of Demariyus Thomas who does with any sort of regularity?), but how many times has he caught a pass short of the sticks and made more than one guy miss to pick up the first down?

Boldin is almost a TE, very good in space, gets his YAC by bulling through people.

Stevie makes nobody miss. The first guy to get to Johnson makes the tackle.

The first guy to get to Boldin gets run over. The first guy to get Crabtree tackles air. If any of the 3 WRs that get significant snaps should be "demoted" for one of the "faster" guys, it's Johnson.

The bolded part is something that Steve (I hate calling a grown man "Stevie", especially when he was known as Steve growing up) was very good at early on in his career.

In 2010 he was only behind Santana Moss by 1 broken/missed tackle for best in the NFL. (Oddly enough, he was tied with Josh Morgan - the original Mr. Reliable - for 2nd in the NFL in that category).

In 2012 he was tied for 15th best in the NFL in the same category (tied again with Josh Morgan, oddly enough, and many other players). There was a logjam that year and with only 4 more missed/broken tackles forced, he'd have been in the top 5 just to show how big of a logjam there was that year.

Not really pertinent to this discussion now because it appears SJ has proven to be a different kind of player than he used to be but I just wanted to point that out as somebody that was a fan of him as a player since college.

[Jikkle]

Some more random musings about the game.

-Aaron Lynch looks like he has draft day steal potential. He was constantly around Foles and he could potentially help in the pass rushing department till Aldon gets back.

Still till early to give him steal status but it's clear he has 1st round talent and if he can keep his head on straight him and Aldon could be a devasting combo on the field.

-I like the fact that Kap is keeping his eyes downfield instead of just tucking and running when pressured. It shows he has matured a bit as a QB and it will lead to some big plays. But at times he almost does it to a fault when he should just run it and get the yardage for a 1st down.

[zman1]

The bolded part is something that Steve (I hate calling a grown man "Stevie", especially when he was known as Steve growing up) was very good at early on in his career.

In 2010 he was only behind Santana Moss by 1 broken/missed tackle for best in the NFL. (Oddly enough, he was tied with Josh Morgan - the original Mr. Reliable - for 2nd in the NFL in that category).

In 2012 he was tied for 15th best in the NFL in the same category (tied again with Josh Morgan, oddly enough, and many other players). There was a logjam that year and with only 4 more missed/broken tackles forced, he'd have been in the top 5 just to show how big of a logjam there was that year.

Not really pertinent to this discussion now because it appears SJ has proven to be a different kind of player than he used to be but I just wanted to point that out as somebody that was a fan of him as a player since college.

How do our current receivers rate over the years? boldin and crabs especially. I don't know where you get that data.

[zman1]

Who said 2 or 3 yards beyond the DB? Did you ignore where I said the only time WRs tend to get open behind the defense is on coverage breakdowns? How many WRs in the league straight up run past CBs on go routes? We aren't talking about Ellington lining up side by side with Boldin to race down the field. This isn't the Olympics.

I'm going to assume that you throwing out a red herring and completely ignoring everything I said is an implicit acknowledgement that Ellington is not the best deep threat on the team. The idea that fastest runner = best deep threat is one of the stupider ideas to be presented for discussion. It's the equivalent of arguing strongest arm = best deep throwing QB.

I will further state that anyone who thinks Ellington should be promoted over Crabtree, Boldin or Johnson must be drunk.

One of my points, that speed on the field makes the D play differently to respect that speed, proven:

"Jenkins has been averaging 12 snaps a game this season and has four catches for 16 yards.

“He was here and some of the guys know him,” 49ers safety Antoine Bethea said. “He’s a speed guy. He can take a top off of a defense, so we have to be aware of that. And coming back, just like Alex (Smith), he’s going to want to have a (good) game. So we have to be aware of that.”

Harbaugh vigorously defended Jenkins both during the receiver’s lackluster rookie season – he didn’t catch any passes that year – and after he was traded. The 49ers coach said Friday that he sees progress from his former pupil.

“I believe he’s continued to grow as a player,” Harbaugh said. “He’s also on the field-goal (and) extra-point block (units) coming off the edge, and he’s gotten close a few times. We’re aware of him and need to be.”

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2014/10/03/675922 ... rylink=cpy

[imac_21]

Who said 2 or 3 yards beyond the DB? Did you ignore where I said the only time WRs tend to get open behind the defense is on coverage breakdowns? How many WRs in the league straight up run past CBs on go routes? We aren't talking about Ellington lining up side by side with Boldin to race down the field. This isn't the Olympics.

I'm going to assume that you throwing out a red herring and completely ignoring everything I said is an implicit acknowledgement that Ellington is not the best deep threat on the team. The idea that fastest runner = best deep threat is one of the stupider ideas to be presented for discussion. It's the equivalent of arguing strongest arm = best deep throwing QB.

I will further state that anyone who thinks Ellington should be promoted over Crabtree, Boldin or Johnson must be drunk.

One of my points, that speed on the field makes the D play differently to respect that speed, proven:

"Jenkins has been averaging 12 snaps a game this season and has four catches for 16 yards.

“He was here and some of the guys know him,” 49ers safety Antoine Bethea said. “He’s a speed guy. He can take a top off of a defense, so we have to be aware of that. And coming back, just like Alex (Smith), he’s going to want to have a (good) game. So we have to be aware of that.”

Harbaugh vigorously defended Jenkins both during the receiver’s lackluster rookie season – he didn’t catch any passes that year – and after he was traded. The 49ers coach said Friday that he sees progress from his former pupil.

“I believe he’s continued to grow as a player,” Harbaugh said. “He’s also on the field-goal (and) extra-point block (units) coming off the edge, and he’s gotten close a few times. We’re aware of him and need to be.”

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2014/10/03/675922 ... rylink=cpy

How about we wait to see if they actually do play defense showing AJ Jenkins speed respect, rather than just paying lip service to it? Are we taking it as gospel that there is no discord in the locker room because a few players said so? Are we supposed to accept everything players and coaches say as 100% truth and proof of a point?

*Edit*

And of course this means that Ellington should be promoted over Crabtree.

[zman1]

How about we wait to see if they actually do play defense showing AJ Jenkins speed respect, rather than just paying lip service to it? Are we taking it as gospel that there is no discord in the locker room because a few players said so? Are we supposed to accept everything players and coaches say as 100% truth and proof of a point?

*Edit*

And of course this means that Ellington should be promoted over Crabtree.

First off, I was in a hurry posting the one you responded to. I should have added that all you guys who came back at me made good points and I will basically concede defeat.

As to the point above, a more general point about speed at the WR, do you think the Niners just made up those quotes for who knows what reason? Doesn't it make sense that the DBs will play a little differently if there is a guy on the field who can run away from them versus none who can do that? Speed plays an important role in many sports and football is one of them. Our relative lack of speed at WR detracts from our offense.

[imac_21]

How about we wait to see if they actually do play defense showing AJ Jenkins speed respect, rather than just paying lip service to it? Are we taking it as gospel that there is no discord in the locker room because a few players said so? Are we supposed to accept everything players and coaches say as 100% truth and proof of a point?

*Edit*

And of course this means that Ellington should be promoted over Crabtree.

First off, I was in a hurry posting the one you responded to. I should have added that all you guys who came back at me made good points and I will basically concede defeat.

As to the point above, a more general point about speed at the WR, do you think the Niners just made up those quotes for who knows what reason? Doesn't it make sense that the DBs will play a little differently if there is a guy on the field who can run away from them versus none who can do that? Speed plays an important role in many sports and football is one of them. Our relative lack of speed at WR detracts from our offense.

I don't think the quotes were made up for "who knows what reason." I think Bethea said it because he was asked specifically about AJ Jenkins and wasn't going to say "Jenkins sucks, we're not going to pay attention to him at all because he doesn't matter." However, Niner fans probably would lean more toward the latter being true than the Niners are going to re-design the defense because AJ Jenkins runs fast. I really doubt they sat in defensive meetings this week going over the game plan and decided that AJ Jenkins was going to affect the game plan more than Jamal Charles (and Knile Davis), Travis Kelce and Dwayne Bowe. Jenkins has 4 catches for 16 yards. SF is going to be concerned with that?

If we play Ellington, but continue to not run deep routes, and use him like Wes Welker, is that going to back the defense off? It doesn't matter who the receiver is, it matters what the offense calls. If we start sending Crabtree on 7, 8 and 9 routes the defense will adjust to that. It has nothing to do with his speed.

As I mentioned earlier in the thread, it's very rare to see a WR just straight up run past a CB, regardless of 40 times. When a WR gets behind the defense, it's nearly always because of a coverage mistake.

Bruce Ellington ran a 4.31
Alshon Jeffrey ran a 4.48
Dez Bryant ran a 4.52
Brandon Marshall ran a 4.52
Larry Fitzgerald ran a 4.63

Anyone want to argue Ellington is a better deep threat than any or all of Jeffrey, Bryant, Fitz and Marshall?

[ChrisPozz]

The bolded part is something that Steve (I hate calling a grown man "Stevie", especially when he was known as Steve growing up) was very good at early on in his career.

In 2010 he was only behind Santana Moss by 1 broken/missed tackle for best in the NFL. (Oddly enough, he was tied with Josh Morgan - the original Mr. Reliable - for 2nd in the NFL in that category).

In 2012 he was tied for 15th best in the NFL in the same category (tied again with Josh Morgan, oddly enough, and many other players). There was a logjam that year and with only 4 more missed/broken tackles forced, he'd have been in the top 5 just to show how big of a logjam there was that year.

Not really pertinent to this discussion now because it appears SJ has proven to be a different kind of player than he used to be but I just wanted to point that out as somebody that was a fan of him as a player since college.

How do our current receivers rate over the years? boldin and crabs especially. I don't know where you get that data.

2014 - Boldin and Crabtree already forced 5 missed tackles a PIECE. Both are tied right now for 6th most in the NFL. Steve Smith has an insane 13 right now and Golden Tate has 8. Jordy Nelson, Kendall Wright, and Victor Cruz have 6.

2013 - Boldin last year had 13 missed tackles forced which put him tied for 10th in the NFL. 16 (3 more) would've put him tied for 3rd with Antonio Brown so there was a big time logjam among the top 3-10. Crabtree only played in 5 regular season games but had an impressive 4 himself in those 4 games. He had 2 more in the playoffs.

2012 - Crabtree had 13 missed tackles forced which put him tied for 8th in the NFL. Again, 3 more would've taken him all the way up to 3rd. Boldin, with Baltimore, had 11 himself which put him tied for 13th with Andre Johnson.

2011 - Crabtree had 14 missed tackles forced which put him tied for 5th in the NFL. 1 more and he'd have been solo 3rd and 2 more and he'd have been tied for 2nd. Boldin, with Baltimore, surprisingly only had 2 this year.

2010 - Crabtree had 7 which tied him for 18th (league leader Santana Moss only had 13 this year). Boldin, while with Baltimore, only had 3.

2009 - Crabtree had 9 but only in 11 games played. Boldin, with Arizona, had 7 and was tied for 30th.