NBA likely to vote on changing draft odds next month

[MRxBLACK]

Here are the new probabilities: http://i.imgur.com/W1WAYiG.png
Here is the change in probabilities: http://i.imgur.com/FMfrHP8.png

Good news is lottery teams outside the top three are actually helped by the lottery change.
Bad news is the Sixers are probably going to be in the top 3.

[snoopdogg88]

if the Sixers don't finish with the leagues worst record, it's not the worst thing in the world.


thank god almighty this wasn't in effect last year, when it was actually really important to get a top 3 pick.

this year doesn't seem quite as top heavy, and coincidently its supposed to be a big man draft, so falling back a few spots and getting a Hezonja or Stanley might be for the best.

[42uptop]

This is going to be Hinkie's third draft. He already has a bunch of draft picks under his belt including 4 lottery picks. That is more than enough young talent. Sure the proposed changes could lower our pick this year, but if the players we already have aren't good enough then Hinkie is not going to last here regardless. And it's not like we can't get a good pick this year.

[No-Man]

This is going to net the Lakers a top5 pick, when they will lose it to the Suns otherwise, **** the NBA always giving them resources to get better.

[No-Man]

if the Sixers don't finish with the leagues worst record, it's not the worst thing in the world.


thank god almighty this wasn't in effect last year, when it was actually really important to get a top 3 pick.

this year doesn't seem quite as top heavy, and coincidently its supposed to be a big man draft, so falling back a few spots and getting a Hezonja or Stanley might be for the best.

It is top heavy, the jump between a top5 and a top10 is huge.

[MountainDrew]

Not liking that 34 percent chance of 7th if we finish with the worst record. Could you imagine this going into effect last year? We could have ended up with like Randle or Vonleh instead of Embiid. This still kind of sucks now, but if we end up with 7th, Hezonja, Oubre or Johnson might still be available, there's no franchise player in this draft anyway.

Would be so awesome if we still get a top 3 pick in the upcoming draft just as a FU to the league

[MountainDrew]

if the Sixers don't finish with the leagues worst record, it's not the worst thing in the world.


thank god almighty this wasn't in effect last year, when it was actually really important to get a top 3 pick.

this year doesn't seem quite as top heavy, and coincidently its supposed to be a big man draft, so falling back a few spots and getting a Hezonja or Stanley might be for the best.

It is top heavy, the jump between a top5 and a top10 is huge.

It's quite funny, when I look at the Draftexpress mock draft, I see exactly 7 prospects that I would very much like to get in Okafor, Mudiay, Towns, Oubre, Alexander, Hezonja and Johnson. Hell, maybe even Porzingis and Winslow can become awesome. Now obviously, it's all way too early to tell (both for me and you) and it could easily turn out to be a 4,3,2 or even 1 player draft. But as of now, it doesn't look too bad.

[WorldBeFree]

If draft isnt good why even discuss. We should have get a player who can help us, but we didnt. I wonder who else will be a free agent next year other then klay?

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[Chamberlainship]

If draft isnt good why even discuss. We should have get a player who can help us, but we didnt. I wonder who else will be a free agent next year other then klay?

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This post points to the basic problem with this strategy. Until you get that diamond player who shows it on an NBA court, there's never a reason to "sign scrub vets" to actually design a team with playoff potential. You can always make the case, unless you've got like 2 young Lebrons, that it's better to tank.

If the owner set some measurable benchmarks for the GM, I'd feel better about it. For example, if he said at the beginning of Hinkie's tenure, "we're taking a step back but in 3 years we should be back in the playoffs," I'd feel a lot better about it.

As is, it just looks like a perpetual tank and an excuse to have a $35 million payroll in a league where the average payroll is almost double that for as long as you can. The deferred reward asset collection dovetails nicely with this strategy.

[MountainDrew]

If draft isnt good why even discuss. We should have get a player who can help us, but we didnt. I wonder who else will be a free agent next year other then klay?

Sent from my D2303 using RealGM Forums mobile app

This post points to the basic problem with this strategy. Until you get that diamond player who shows it on an NBA court, there's never a reason to "sign scrub vets" to actually design a team with playoff potential. You can always make the case, unless you've got like 2 young Lebrons, that it's better to tank.

If the owner set some measurable benchmarks for the GM, I'd feel better about it. For example, if he said at the beginning of Hinkie's tenure, "we're taking a step back but in 3 years we should be back in the playoffs," I'd feel a lot better about it.

As is, it just looks like a perpetual tank and an excuse to have a $35 million payroll in a league where the average payroll is almost double that for as long as you can. The deferred reward asset collection dovetails nicely with this strategy.

He probably has benchmarks, but nothing good would come from telling the fans about it as it just adds pressure and nothing else. Do you think Harris would allow the team to be tanking for 5 years or something? Of course not. He wants the team to be good, but you can't predict before the rebuild starts how things are going to go. It's looking good now, but if MCW busted and we fell to 4th instead of 3rd, there would have been virtually no chance of making the playoffs next season because the talent is simply not there.

Besides, he has said 3-5 year plan so there's a benchmark for you I guess.

[bedjawII]

This doesn't bother me even a little. In fact ironically I think it helps the Sixers; but I'm also in the minority and feel the Sixers will be better this year than last year. After watching Sims last year I think Hawes and he are a wash. I don't expect Noel to be as productive as Thad but do expect MCW, Wroten and Thompson to take huge steps in their game. KJ won't be as productive as ET but by the end of the year it will be close and KJ will be a better defender and more efficient. The rest of the team will be a mix of D-leaguers/un drafted FAs, but it was the same last year. And I can safely say the Sixers won't go on a 26 game losing streak...there was a rash of bad luck in that streak as well as bad play. So I really don't expect us to be a serious candidate for the worst record. It'd be Epic if they change the draft because of the Sixers but we end up with the 4th worst record and get the #1 pick anyway.

[LeonJordanJr24]

Not liking that 34 percent chance of 7th if we finish with the worst record. Could you imagine this going into effect last year? We could have ended up with like Randle or Vonleh instead of Embiid. This still kind of sucks now, but if we end up with 7th, Hezonja, Oubre or Johnson might still be available, there's no franchise player in this draft anyway.

Would be so awesome if we still get a top 3 pick in the upcoming draft just as a FU to the league

As of right now my gut feeling is that we target wings in this draft . Hezonja is my favorite in terms of chemistry and fit as 6'8 shooting guard who can come over with Saric from Croatia. Seems like a seamless fit. I like Johnson however he seems kinda similar to KJ Mcdaniels in terms of skills and measurements. Oubre to me has the highest scoring potential he's a long wing who can develop into a dangerous perimeter threat.

[Ericb5]

I think that this draft is not as good as last year and since we already got our potential franchise player last year that it is less important to get a top pick this year.

That being said, I do think that Okafor is at least on the same level with Wiggins and Parker. There are no Embiid's this year imo.

There will likely be a lot of shuffling among the top ten prospects over the next year and it is hard to say where players like Johnson, and Oubre will end up now. They could go in the top 3 or 4 with great seasons, or go in the 7-10 range with lesser seasons.

In the end we will get what we get. It isn't that I think specific players are way better for us than others. It is that higher picks are better assets and it would be better for the franchise if we got the 4th pick than the 7th pick because it makes it easier to get a better player obviously, but it also has more trade value to other teams.

Hezonja would be a great consolation prize if it goes that way. Has there ever been any talk of him staying in Europe for a year or two, or would he be coming over right away? It would be nice for him and Saric to come over the same year.


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[MountainDrew]

Not liking that 34 percent chance of 7th if we finish with the worst record. Could you imagine this going into effect last year? We could have ended up with like Randle or Vonleh instead of Embiid. This still kind of sucks now, but if we end up with 7th, Hezonja, Oubre or Johnson might still be available, there's no franchise player in this draft anyway.

Would be so awesome if we still get a top 3 pick in the upcoming draft just as a FU to the league

As of right now my gut feeling is that we target wings in this draft . Hezonja is my favorite in terms of chemistry and fit as 6'8 shooting guard who can come over with Saric from Croatia. Seems like a seamless fit. I like Johnson however he seems kinda similar to KJ Mcdaniels in terms of skills and measurements. Oubre to me has the highest scoring potential he's a long wing who can develop into a dangerous perimeter threat.

In terms of fit, right now it would have to be 1. Hezonja 2. Oubre and 3. Johnson. I hope these 3 guys can produce so we can snatch up a good wing prospect regardless of the lotto change.

[Iversean]

NBA is a rig job. Illuminati rigged it for the Cavs. Without the Cavs winning the lotto, they wouldn't have had the crucial piece (Wiggins) to make a believable K. Love trade. They wanted to keep Irving so this was the only possible scenario. I didn't think so before, but all pro sports is a rigged. I'm going to start watching NCAA this season.

[Chamberlainship]

If draft isnt good why even discuss. We should have get a player who can help us, but we didnt. I wonder who else will be a free agent next year other then klay?

Sent from my D2303 using RealGM Forums mobile app

This post points to the basic problem with this strategy. Until you get that diamond player who shows it on an NBA court, there's never a reason to "sign scrub vets" to actually design a team with playoff potential. You can always make the case, unless you've got like 2 young Lebrons, that it's better to tank.

If the owner set some measurable benchmarks for the GM, I'd feel better about it. For example, if he said at the beginning of Hinkie's tenure, "we're taking a step back but in 3 years we should be back in the playoffs," I'd feel a lot better about it.

As is, it just looks like a perpetual tank and an excuse to have a $35 million payroll in a league where the average payroll is almost double that for as long as you can. The deferred reward asset collection dovetails nicely with this strategy.

He probably has benchmarks, but nothing good would come from telling the fans about it as it just adds pressure and nothing else. Do you think Harris would allow the team to be tanking for 5 years or something? Of course not. He wants the team to be good, but you can't predict before the rebuild starts how things are going to go. It's looking good now, but if MCW busted and we fell to 4th instead of 3rd, there would have been virtually no chance of making the playoffs next season because the talent is simply not there.

Besides, he has said 3-5 year plan so there's a benchmark for you I guess.

You're right about internal benchmarks. But making them public and adding pressure is exactly the point. Pressure builds interest and excitement. There's none of that with this team. That's what's great about sports: winners and losers, clear success and failure.

IMHO, Five years is too damn long to rebuild in this era. But if legit title contention in 2017-2018 is the standard, I would think we should be sniffing playoffs next year in year three. It'll take at least two years for young guys to get their legs under them in the playoffs. Seems like a longshot that a team of guys with under 5 years in the league is going to be in contention for anything. I guess the Thunder shows it can happen. But it's asking a lot.

[Chamberlainship]

NBA is a rig job. Illuminati rigged it for the Cavs. Without the Cavs winning the lotto, they wouldn't have had the crucial piece (Wiggins) to make a believable K. Love trade. They wanted to keep Irving so this was the only possible scenario. I didn't think so before, but all pro sports is a rigged. I'm going to start watching NCAA this season.

We'll, if you're turning to NCAA, make sure you don't google the phrase "point shaving."

[Iversean]

College and HS sports are more real than professional. I will say that much. Pro sports are a show, and there is too much money at stake not to influence certain match ups or out comes. Referees in the NBA are all biased. Before I used to think they officiated fairly with no bias, however through reading Donaghy's book I am almost certain it happens. He explains it in more detail in his book.

Refs officiate mainly on their relationships with the players, coaches, and owners. If they like you, you are going to get an edge in the matchup that night he refs. But if they don't like you, you are in for a long night.

[76thBearCub]

College and HS sports are more real than professional. I will say that much. Pro sports are a show, and there is too much money at stake not to influence certain match ups or out comes. Referees in the NBA are all biased. Before I used to think they officiated fairly with no bias, however through reading Donaghy's book I am almost certain it happens. He explains it in more detail in his book.

Refs officiate mainly on their relationships with the players, coaches, and owners. If they like you, you are going to get an edge in the matchup that night he refs. But if they don't like you, you are in for a long night.

Money influences everything. Including donaghys book.

[76thBearCub]

This is going to net the Lakers a top5 pick, when they will lose it to the Suns otherwise, **** the NBA always giving them resources to get better.

They would've had a good chance at top 5 regardless. They suck.