Why Marcus Smart should start at SG

[165bows]

^Agreed. I'm not worried about Smart, or his scoring. He'll never be on the PPG leaderboard but it doesn't really matter. He'll score enough on decent enough efficiency to keep his D on the court. As I mentioned before I think he'll have an Artest type of offense, a few career years were he scores efficiently with volume, and a bunch of ones that are ok but not stellar.

[humblebum]

How is it besides the point? If you are a sub 30% deep shooter, you shouldn't be playing like a 3-point shooting specialist - as you pointed out, Fisher didn't fire up the artillery until he had proven he could aim. Further, if you are a sub 30% shooter with the kind of sample size that Smart's consistent bombing has produced and a ridiculous airball count, then it's not unreasonable to question his potential as a shooter in a way that you wouldn't with a low-volume, high accuracy guy like Fisher

This is the preseason, man. And the team is in semi-rebuild mode to begin with. The goal is to develop, not so much to win. Just because he is a <30% shooter now does not mean he always will be. What he will be is relevant to how you want him to develop, and there is probably more to say to that effect but I can't find the right words.

I'm a believer in getting guys to establish their strengths and build from there. It builds confidence, trade value and winning habits.

Having a guy who's never been even an average shooter take 75% of his shots from downtown, and the most 3 pointers total on the team strikes me as bizarre.

I know it's preseason, but rookies tend to play preseason straight. Guys might play a little looser, but usually they do the same kinds of things in the regular season. And it wasn't like it was 1 game. He did it every single game. Even in his aggressive final game, he had more 3's than aggressive drives.

Maybe the kid is simply confide the can make the 3 and Stevens is seeing enough in practice to let him keep shooting. He has shooting ability, range, etc. but inconsistent mechanics. He also doesn't have a great first step so he needs to establish himself as a threat to set up the drive and to create the angles necessary to make all the passes in PnR.

But more than anything this just reminds me of people freaking out about Big Baby or Bradley shooting and missing early in their careers. Just got to let guys take shots they are confident in to build their game. Smart isn't Tony or Rajon bad as a shooter. Much better mechanics than either of those guys from day 1.

[Slartibartfast]

This is the preseason, man. And the team is in semi-rebuild mode to begin with. The goal is to develop, not so much to win. Just because he is a <30% shooter now does not mean he always will be. What he will be is relevant to how you want him to develop, and there is probably more to say to that effect but I can't find the right words.

I'm a believer in getting guys to establish their strengths and build from there. It builds confidence, trade value and winning habits.

Having a guy who's never been even an average shooter take 75% of his shots from downtown, and the most 3 pointers total on the team strikes me as bizarre.

I know it's preseason, but rookies tend to play preseason straight. Guys might play a little looser, but usually they do the same kinds of things in the regular season. And it wasn't like it was 1 game. He did it every single game. Even in his aggressive final game, he had more 3's than aggressive drives.

Maybe the kid is simply confide the can make the 3 and Stevens is seeing enough in practice to let him keep shooting. He has shooting ability, range, etc. but inconsistent mechanics. He also doesn't have a great first step so he needs to establish himself as a threat to set up the drive and to create the angles necessary to make all the passes in PnR.

But more than anything this just reminds me of people freaking out about Big Baby or Bradley shooting and missing early in their careers. Just got to let guys take shots they are confident in to build their game. Smart isn't Tony or Rajon bad as a shooter. Much better mechanics than either of those guys from day 1.

AB was a good shooter in college and high school. Big Baby was a mediocre shooter whose inefficiency played a big role in speeding his path to becoming the bargain bin 4th/5th big he is today.

Smart fits in the well-established tradition of weak shooting guards who might be able to add a consistent 3 someday. Kidd, Rose and Westbrook did, and Evans, Miller, Wade and Rodney Stuckey never really did. But none of those guys took even close to 75% of their shots from deep, other than maybe Jason Kidd when his legs went and he could hit them at 40%.

The problem isn’t that Marcus’ J might be broke – it’s that he’s chucking them up there like it’s his best weapon, and leaving the rest of his game on the shelf. It’s not even remotely the normal development path for players like him.

[KamikazeK]

I'm a believer in getting guys to establish their strengths and build from there. It builds confidence, trade value and winning habits.

Having a guy who's never been even an average shooter take 75% of his shots from downtown, and the most 3 pointers total on the team strikes me as bizarre.

I know it's preseason, but rookies tend to play preseason straight. Guys might play a little looser, but usually they do the same kinds of things in the regular season. And it wasn't like it was 1 game. He did it every single game. Even in his aggressive final game, he had more 3's than aggressive drives.

If the kid is a poor shooter, it makes a lot of sense from my perspective to have him shoot every single time he touches the ball in preseason. Why would we need him to do something we already know he excels at? He's a young player, and the team stands to benefit significantly if he can improve his outside shot. I'm not sure why you think otherwise.

[Slartibartfast]

I'm a believer in getting guys to establish their strengths and build from there. It builds confidence, trade value and winning habits.

Having a guy who's never been even an average shooter take 75% of his shots from downtown, and the most 3 pointers total on the team strikes me as bizarre.

I know it's preseason, but rookies tend to play preseason straight. Guys might play a little looser, but usually they do the same kinds of things in the regular season. And it wasn't like it was 1 game. He did it every single game. Even in his aggressive final game, he had more 3's than aggressive drives.

If the kid is a poor shooter, it makes a lot of sense from my perspective to have him shoot every single time he touches the ball in preseason. Why would we need him to do something we already know he excels at? He's a young player, and the team stands to benefit significantly if he can improve his outside shot. I'm not sure why you think otherwise.

I'm just pointing how extreme Smart's preference for 3's has been relative to other similar talented athletic guards with sketchy jump shots.

Victor Oladipo took 4/12 of his preseason shots from 3. He ended up taking 3/12 of his shots from 3 during the season.

MCW took 4/10 preseason shots from 3 and 3/15 in the regular season.

Dennis Schroeder took 3/9 shots from 3 in preseason and 1/3 in the regular season.

Payton obviously hasn't played a regular season game yet, but he took less than 1/6 from deep.

Exum is taking 2/4 of his from 3 (and making them at a solid 35% clip).

Smart is taking 6/8 of his shots from 3.

He's taken more 3's in volume and as a percentage of overall shots than similar types of rookies, and if the examples of Dipo, MCW and Schroeder are any indication, he's not likely to suddenly invert those ratios once the real games begin. Seems to me there's a good chance that Smart takes more than 50% of his regular season shots from downtown.

None of this is to say that Smart or his jumper is broken, just that I don't like the way he's going about scoring the ball as a pro so far.

[sam_I_am]

Fish was hitting at 42% from 3 by his second year in college. He also wasn't built to be a major slashing/foul-drawing guard - he was strong but small and not particularly creative as a slasher. It made sense for him to build his game around his perimeter shot.

As a 19 y/o college player, Fish was 23-55 from 3 at Arkansas. He didn't take many threes. Smart shot 49 of 164 while likely facing a lot more defensive attention (and having worse shot selection perhaps). Not a big difference IMO in terms of displayed ability. As a 22 y/o NBA rookie, Fish shot 30% from 3 on about three attempts per 36. Again, nothing special.

I mean, I get your point and all, and since Smart already has an NBA body I wonder if his shot will improve like James Young's shot should improve after he matures physically. But I think it is ridiculous to care about whether Smart's 3 is or isn't falling right now. That will come in time. Or it won't. But right now it is besides the point. IMO

How is it besides the point? If you are a sub 30% deep shooter, you shouldn't be playing like a 3-point shooting specialist - as you pointed out, Fisher didn't fire up the artillery until he had proven he could aim. Further, if you are a sub 30% shooter with the kind of sample size that Smart's consistent bombing has produced and a ridiculous airball count, then it's not unreasonable to question his potential as a shooter in a way that you wouldn't with a low-volume, high accuracy guy like Fisher

Would any of us have been happy if a rookie TA came in and started launching like he was prime Michael Redd on the justification that Redd didn't have much of deep ball in college either? How about if Rondo came in playing like Eddie House?

I fully understand the long-term optimism for Smart as a prospect, but people are dismissing a very poor offensive summer league & preseason in a way that I don't think they would for a less touted, lower draft pick like TA or Rondo.

Simply the best Marcus Smart post I've read on this site - including my own.

[pfm]

I think we should watch him play a few regular season games before deciding who he is and what he is going to be.

But hey, maybe I'm crazy.

[bbd24]

As a 19 y/o college player, Fish was 23-55 from 3 at Arkansas. He didn't take many threes. Smart shot 49 of 164 while likely facing a lot more defensive attention (and having worse shot selection perhaps). Not a big difference IMO in terms of displayed ability. As a 22 y/o NBA rookie, Fish shot 30% from 3 on about three attempts per 36. Again, nothing special.

I mean, I get your point and all, and since Smart already has an NBA body I wonder if his shot will improve like James Young's shot should improve after he matures physically. But I think it is ridiculous to care about whether Smart's 3 is or isn't falling right now. That will come in time. Or it won't. But right now it is besides the point. IMO

How is it besides the point? If you are a sub 30% deep shooter, you shouldn't be playing like a 3-point shooting specialist - as you pointed out, Fisher didn't fire up the artillery until he had proven he could aim. Further, if you are a sub 30% shooter with the kind of sample size that Smart's consistent bombing has produced and a ridiculous airball count, then it's not unreasonable to question his potential as a shooter in a way that you wouldn't with a low-volume, high accuracy guy like Fisher

Would any of us have been happy if a rookie TA came in and started launching like he was prime Michael Redd on the justification that Redd didn't have much of deep ball in college either? How about if Rondo came in playing like Eddie House?

I fully understand the long-term optimism for Smart as a prospect, but people are dismissing a very poor offensive summer league & preseason in a way that I don't think they would for a less touted, lower draft pick like TA or Rondo.

Simply the best Marcus Smart post I've read on this site - including my own.

Two words. Shot selection. That's not coming in summer league, as everyone is chucking & ducking there. If he gets his shot selection in order early, he's going to be just fine offensively. He's got enough shooters around him where 1st option shouldn't be his calling card. Defend & distribute. For a 20 yr old, he's above average in both those categories. Far above.

[ConstableGeneva]

Smart's penchant (if that's even what it is) for taking too many threes when he can fake-and-drive or pass it to a more open teammate could become a concern, just not this early in the season let alone in his career, especially when you consider the whole team has had the green light to take those threes (we lead in 3FGAs/game I believe).

[ConstableGeneva]

Sneak Peek: The Education of Marcus Smart (CSNNE feature): http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/sne ... rcus-smart

[bucknersrevenge]

Fish was hitting at 42% from 3 by his second year in college. He also wasn't built to be a major slashing/foul-drawing guard - he was strong but small and not particularly creative as a slasher. It made sense for him to build his game around his perimeter shot.

As a 19 y/o college player, Fish was 23-55 from 3 at Arkansas. He didn't take many threes. Smart shot 49 of 164 while likely facing a lot more defensive attention (and having worse shot selection perhaps). Not a big difference IMO in terms of displayed ability. As a 22 y/o NBA rookie, Fish shot 30% from 3 on about three attempts per 36. Again, nothing special.

I mean, I get your point and all, and since Smart already has an NBA body I wonder if his shot will improve like James Young's shot should improve after he matures physically. But I think it is ridiculous to care about whether Smart's 3 is or isn't falling right now. That will come in time. Or it won't. But right now it is besides the point. IMO

How is it besides the point? If you are a sub 30% deep shooter, you shouldn't be playing like a 3-point shooting specialist - as you pointed out, Fisher didn't fire up the artillery until he had proven he could aim. Further, if you are a sub 30% shooter with the kind of sample size that Smart's consistent bombing has produced and a ridiculous airball count, then it's not unreasonable to question his potential as a shooter in a way that you wouldn't with a low-volume, high accuracy guy like Fisher

Would any of us have been happy if a rookie TA came in and started launching like he was prime Michael Redd on the justification that Redd didn't have much of deep ball in college either? How about if Rondo came in playing like Eddie House?

I fully understand the long-term optimism for Smart as a prospect, but people are dismissing a very poor offensive summer league & preseason in a way that I don't think they would for a less touted, lower draft pick like TA or Rondo.

I would if Stevens was the coach suggesting it. I think the difference here is that the people here saying "it's just preseason" are also likely people who believe coaching may have had influence in his lack of shot selectivity during this time. The mechanical issues in Smart's shot going into the draft were very real. Every jumper he takes during game speed is an opportunity to work on those mechanics in a setting where the results don't count. I'm still not sure why this is being overlooked. The response to that seems to be "Well I wouldn't do it that way so he must not be good" which just isn't a logical argument. There is precedence with AB and Sully last year that supports this idea as methodology for Stevens. Stevens used games last year that didn't matter to ask AB and Sully to get more comfortable with the perimeter shot. Sully kept bricking and Stevens said "Keep taking them". I mean, this is not made up stuff. This actually happened last year. Is this being ignored out of convenience? Is it being ignored because it doesn't fit the argument? Or is it simply a disagreement with the way Stevens goes about things? Where Smart got drafted has absolutely zero to do with anything. Fact: if Smart gets his jumper mechanics right in such a way as to allow him to shoot a respectable percentage, it makes the rest of his game that much more difficult to handle. This is by no means rocket science.

[DarkAzcura]

I think sam is too bearish on Smart, but you really think Smart's going to put up 12ppg this season? He didn't even get there on a per 36 basis in preseason against some of the weakest defenses in the league.

Thing is, I'm starting to detect a shell game forming. At first, the argument was that Smart cannot drive thelane. That was the original debate. Because Smart was choosing to hoist everytime his defender went under the pick. So now the argument has changed to "Smart will never be a good shooter as evidenced by his 19% through 5 preseason games". The goalposts are just gonna keep getting pushed back because Smart is not the same player as Russell Westbrook. It's a silly argument. I don't know that Smart will ever be a great perimeter shooter. Do I think he can be average? Sure. And I know he can drive and get to the rim and score in the paint and get to the line. So add all that up and you have a very good player. Maybe he doesn't hit all those numbers his first year. Or even the second. But I have enough faith in what I have seen of him so fair and of his work ethic that in 3 years we are going to have a helluva player.

Actually it is simple math. Rondo, Westbrook and Rose suck as outside shooters and yet despite that end up shooting 50% from the field. Smart is shooting 36% from the field ( actually worse because ESPN only calculates last 5 games). The way he improves that number to join company of the elite PGs who can't shoot is to morph into a Steph Curry type 50% outside shooter ( something that I've never seen a player do in my 30 years as a fan ) OR to do something he hasn't done in preseason or in summer league: get to the rim regularly and score at a high percentage.

Now many here are making the excuse that it is coaching to blame. That seems so unlikely - but I have never chatted with a Celtic coach and maybe some of you have and have that inside scoop. I'll remain skeptical. If he can do it - he needs to prove it. Maybe he will, and when that happens I'll believe it. But I have my doubts because the speed and explosiveness required don't seem to be there.

Well first of all, Westbrook has never been a 50% shooter in his life.

Second of all, even if Smart shot 38/30/75 with a 45% 3Pr and a 45% FTr, he'd be as efficient as Rondo was in his 50% FG year. That's what shooting 3s and getting to the line does, even if your 3PT percentage isn't that hot. Two things Rondo never did/does (obviously Rondo shoots 3s under Stevens' system now). Even with a crappy 32/25 split, Smart still managed a PPS (1.12) 10% lower than Rondo's most efficient year. Now that doesn't make me particularly happy or anything because I want to see Smart shooting better than 32% FG, and everyone knows I love Rondo anyway. I'm just putting things in perspective regarding his raw shooting percentages. It can be misleading.

Despite having a 75% 3Pr, Smart STILL managed a 40% FTr. That's actually quite awesome all things considering. Slart and you are very smart guys, but I don't think you guys are looking into the numbers enough. I believe in the eye test as much as the next person, but statistics are very valuable. Fact of the matter is, no one would have any issue with any player who had a 45% FG in the mid-range, no? Well that's exactly what a 30% 3PT equates to. Smart shot the 3 ball 25% in pre-season. Not that great, but again, it's just pre-season. I don't expect his 3Pr to be at 75% by the end of the season so his 3PT% should rise a bit with less volume from there.

I'm a believer in getting guys to establish their strengths and build from there. It builds confidence, trade value and winning habits.

Having a guy who's never been even an average shooter take 75% of his shots from downtown, and the most 3 pointers total on the team strikes me as bizarre.

I know it's preseason, but rookies tend to play preseason straight. Guys might play a little looser, but usually they do the same kinds of things in the regular season. And it wasn't like it was 1 game. He did it every single game. Even in his aggressive final game, he had more 3's than aggressive drives.

If the kid is a poor shooter, it makes a lot of sense from my perspective to have him shoot every single time he touches the ball in preseason. Why would we need him to do something we already know he excels at? He's a young player, and the team stands to benefit significantly if he can improve his outside shot. I'm not sure why you think otherwise.

I'm just pointing how extreme Smart's preference for 3's has been relative to other similar talented athletic guards with sketchy jump shots.

Victor Oladipo took 4/12 of his preseason shots from 3. He ended up taking 3/12 of his shots from 3 during the season.

MCW took 4/10 preseason shots from 3 and 3/15 in the regular season.

Dennis Schroeder took 3/9 shots from 3 in preseason and 1/3 in the regular season.

Payton obviously hasn't played a regular season game yet, but he took less than 1/6 from deep.

Exum is taking 2/4 of his from 3 (and making them at a solid 35% clip).

Smart is taking 6/8 of his shots from 3.

He's taken more 3's in volume and as a percentage of overall shots than similar types of rookies, and if the examples of Dipo, MCW and Schroeder are any indication, he's not likely to suddenly invert those ratios once the real games begin. Seems to me there's a good chance that Smart takes more than 50% of his regular season shots from downtown.

None of this is to say that Smart or his jumper is broken, just that I don't like the way he's going about scoring the ball as a pro so far.

But the thing is, if Smart was really doing something wrong out there, wouldn't the coaching staff pull him? Isn't that reason enough to believe, the coaching staff may be confident enough he'll develop his driving game in time because it's natural to him? 75% 3Pr for a guy as aggressive as Smart is not normal. You are exactly right. That's the exact reason we can assume something is up in the background. It's either he's struggling in practice so he doesn't have the green light to drive yet, or Stevens is comfortable that will come with time and his 3 ball is the most important thing right now. Considering he still managed a 40% FTr with a ridiculously high 3PAr, we know the aggressive game is there, and I tend to lean more on the latter of my two hypotheticals because he still managed a high FTr.

So I noticed in your last post that you were hinting that it may not be worth Smart taking a ton of 3s if he is going to shoot them at sub 30%. I don't really agree with that for a reason I stated above. If Smart is going to have a 30% 3P this year, I actually want to see him taking about 35-40% of his shots from there. Three point shots are a very, very efficient shot (even at low percentages), and when combined with a high FTr, it can be a deadly duo for a player. I'm also not comfortable that he can get up to the 45% range in the mid-range. It's probably easier for him to hit 30% from 3 than 45% from 16-18 feet so I think it's clear what the preferable jumpshot here should be a majority of the time.

Maybe I'm dismissing a poor offensive outing, but I feel I'm doing it within reason. I do it with all rookies, and I would have felt the same about TA and Rondo back in the day. I've been watching Smart play, and I've seen him in the lane multiple times only to kick the ball out. For the most part, he looked comfortable while handling the ball. I saw no reason he couldn't put up a floater or a couple layups, but he chose not to. That's why I'm comfortable believing he was just working on the weaknesses in his game. Maybe (definitely) too extremely, but that's how I feel when I watch him. It's also the fact that despite barely attacking, he still managed 3 FTA/game, which is on another planet compared to what I'm used to watching with Rondo and Bradley. That's another reason why I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

You mentioned that this type of development is not typical of attacking guards that can't shoot, and you are right. Typically coaching staffs don't want guys who can't shoot, shooting in games regardless of the result. That's part of the reason I like Stevens a lot. No coach in the league other than maybe Pop would have let Sullinger do what he did last season. A 27% 3P with a constant green light? Crazy stuff, but it may have paid off.

Anyway, to reel back a little bit, I do understand this isn't 100% coaching. Smart did have a 42% 3PAr in college after all. In the end, that's what (I hope) he settles down to if he can get in the 30% 3PM range. His shot selection was questionable in draft reports so I understand the skepticism a bit. I just think someone seemingly as intelligent as Smart would not be taking 75% of his shots from 3 unless he was told to take a bunch of 3s to fit into the offense. I just can't help but think that if Smart wasn't directed at least a little to shoot 3s that Stevens would have probably benched him more often.

Also, I've been meaning to make this chart for a while. I was going to make it before pre-season started to show the impact a high free throw and three point rate can have. Obviously the raw FG%/3PT% doesn't look good in the picture below, and I'm not trying to hype it up with this point. More, I'm trying to give perspective on what the numbers would look like with certain/potential rates and percentages.

For one situation, I considered 40/30/75 splits with a 45% 3PAr/45% FTr and 55% 3PAr/40% FTr respectively. I did the same in the next situation for 35/25/75 splits with a 45% 3PAr/45% FTr and 55% 3PAr/40% FTr respectively. We aren't looking at amazing numbers or anything, but I used the FGA/min he received in pre-season, which seems realistic for what he may see in the regular season. He most likely won't see his college FGA/min unless he adjusts really well as the season progresses. The last situation was more for fun. If he maintained his crazy 73% 3Pr and 40% FTr. You can see TS% for each situation and compare it to Rondo's most efficient year (because I know some people like to think 50% is really, really good..it unfortunately loses its luster if you aren't the best at finishing your free throws) and Smart's sophomore year. One thing I forgot about Rondo was that he actually used to draw fouls a lot more earlier in his career even if he couldn't hit them.

You'll see that in the 40/30/75 situation that Smart actually comes very close to matching Rondo's most efficient year (which is actually pretty decent) with high three point and free throw rates. That's why a 28-30% 3PT can kind of be misleading. I know a lot of people don't want those kind of players shooting a bunch of 3s, but in all honestly, it's not that bad. That's why I never minded Sully's 3PT% last year. I only care if they can shoot the mid-range shot more efficient, which in a 30% 3PT shooter's case, he would have to be above 45% as a mid-range shooter.

You'll also see that as a 35/25/75 shooter he's obviously not looking too hot, but it's not as bad as you would think it is with a positive PPG/FGA differential. I won't excuse that, though. Obviously even I would be disappointed if it turns out that badly, but we'll see.



I made an excel sheet for predicting PPG, TS%, etc based on a couple rates a looong time ago. Always was interested in the whole 3PT/FT efficiency thing.

[ConstableGeneva]

Further proof that Brad and Smart know what they're doing. You may not agree with their methodology, but Marcus shooting a ton of 3s is by design.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celt ... ting_pains

Some old-school coaches believe in clinging to a player’s strength, but not Stevens. The Celtics coach wants his players to offensively expand, not just with their shooting range, but their thinking.

•    What works: “He’s got great lift on his shot, he usually catches with his knees bent. He has a decent base, he shoots the ball up in the air and it looks like it has a chance every time he lets it go. Part of his shooting woes last year in college were either because he was forced to shoot, or because he sometimes took very difficult shots. That dropped his percentages. I think he’s a better shooter than he’s shot. I’ve seen it in practice, and you’ve seen it in streaks in games.”

•    His assignment: “I really believe it’s just reps. The interesting thing about reps is that if you don’t have great technique and you keep repping it, you still won’t make shots, because that’s the point. You have to change what you’re doing. He has pretty good technique. He just has to make sure he reps that consistently.”

[165bows]

Also, I've been meaning to make this chart for a while. I was going to make it before pre-season started to show the impact a high free throw and three point rate can have. Obviously the raw FG%/3PT% doesn't look good in the picture below, and I'm not trying



I made an excel sheet for predicting PPG, TS%, etc based on a couple rates a looong time ago. Always was interested in the whole 3PT/FT efficiency thing.

I'll crunch the numbers later but I think Randle's TS% is about the same for the SL/preseason.

[DarkAzcura]

Also, I've been meaning to make this chart for a while. I was going to make it before pre-season started to show the impact a high free throw and three point rate can have. Obviously the raw FG%/3PT% doesn't look good in the picture below, and I'm not trying



I made an excel sheet for predicting PPG, TS%, etc based on a couple rates a looong time ago. Always was interested in the whole 3PT/FT efficiency thing.

I'll crunch the numbers later but I think Randle's TS% is about the same for the SL/preseason.

Not to steal your thunder, but Randle's TS% in pre-season (not SL) was 46.7%. His FG% was 45.6%, but he struggled to get to the line and can't shoot 3s. His FTr was 23.5%. It's funny. Despite Smart having a 73.3% 3PAr and Randle playing near the basket, Smart still managed a much higher FTr (40%). This is actually a good example of why raw FG% can be manipulative from an efficiency standpoint. Randle's FG% was 13% higher than Smart's, but because Smart shot 3s and got to the line more, he ended up as efficient or a little better.

Like Smart, though, I don't expect Randle's FTr to hang too low. They are both too aggressive for that. I'm kind of surprised by Randle's 23.5% FTr still, though..

EDIT: I do want to make clear that I don't think a 46-47% TS% is good at all. It's all about perspective, though, and I have seen some people hype up Randle despite is poor efficiency throughout SL/pre-season. HIs 45% FG looks alright to people, but looking deeper, it's been tough for him.

[165bows]

Also, I've been meaning to make this chart for a while. I was going to make it before pre-season started to show the impact a high free throw and three point rate can have. Obviously the raw FG%/3PT% doesn't look good in the picture below, and I'm not trying



I made an excel sheet for predicting PPG, TS%, etc based on a couple rates a looong time ago. Always was interested in the whole 3PT/FT efficiency thing.

I'll crunch the numbers later but I think Randle's TS% is about the same for the SL/preseason.

Not to steal your thunder, but Randle's TS% in pre-season (not SL) was 46.7%. His FG% was 45.6%, but he struggled to get to the line and can't shoot 3s. His FTr was 23.5%. It's funny. Despite Smart having a 73.3% 3PAr and Randle playing near the basket, Smart still managed a much higher FTr (40%). This is actually a good example of why raw FG% can be manipulative from an efficiency standpoint. Randle's FG% was 13% higher than Smart's, but because Smart shot 3s and got to the line more, he ended up as efficient or a little better.

Like Smart, though, I don't expect Randle's FTr to hang too low. They are both too aggressive for that. I'm kind of surprised by Randle's 23.5% FTr still, though..

EDIT: I do want to make clear that I don't think a 46-47% TS% is good at all. It's all about perspective, though, and I have seen some people hype up Randle despite is poor efficiency throughout SL/pre-season. HIs 45% FG looks alright to people, but looking deeper, it's been tough for him.

Not stealing at all, I'd rather someone else crunch the numbers. Agree on your points, neither guy has been what you'd want to see offensively, but they are so far very similar. And while Smart has looked seriously legit on D, scoring is what Randle is going to have to hang his hat on. I'm sure he'll improve but if he doesn't then he's just Reggie Evans.

[ConstableGeneva]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPs2Wnp0e7M[/youtube]

[pfm]

Great stuff DarkAzcura. Interested to see how that excel sheet fills out as the season progresses.

[bucknersrevenge]

Further proof that Brad and Smart know what they're doing. You may not agree with their methodology, but Marcus shooting a ton of 3s is by design.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celt ... ting_pains

Some old-school coaches believe in clinging to a player’s strength, but not Stevens. The Celtics coach wants his players to offensively expand, not just with their shooting range, but their thinking.

•    What works: “He’s got great lift on his shot, he usually catches with his knees bent. He has a decent base, he shoots the ball up in the air and it looks like it has a chance every time he lets it go. Part of his shooting woes last year in college were either because he was forced to shoot, or because he sometimes took very difficult shots. That dropped his percentages. I think he’s a better shooter than he’s shot. I’ve seen it in practice, and you’ve seen it in streaks in games.”

•    His assignment: “I really believe it’s just reps. The interesting thing about reps is that if you don’t have great technique and you keep repping it, you still won’t make shots, because that’s the point. You have to change what you’re doing. He has pretty good technique. He just has to make sure he reps that consistently.”

And1 for posting this.

If there was any doubt before; I mean ANY doubt whatsoever as to what Stevens motivations have been during the preseason or what Marcus was doing during the preseason it's crystal clear now. Any talk of Marcus not being able to get to the rim as evidenced by his preseason work is officially DOA. If you don't like Stevens isn't playing to the players strengths first or you don't like him as a coach then say so. Perfectly fine. You don't have to like the way Stevens thinks at all. You just have to accept that that is what he is doing.

[ConstableGeneva]

Further proof that Brad and Smart know what they're doing. You may not agree with their methodology, but Marcus shooting a ton of 3s is by design.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celt ... ting_pains

Some old-school coaches believe in clinging to a player’s strength, but not Stevens. The Celtics coach wants his players to offensively expand, not just with their shooting range, but their thinking.

•    What works: “He’s got great lift on his shot, he usually catches with his knees bent. He has a decent base, he shoots the ball up in the air and it looks like it has a chance every time he lets it go. Part of his shooting woes last year in college were either because he was forced to shoot, or because he sometimes took very difficult shots. That dropped his percentages. I think he’s a better shooter than he’s shot. I’ve seen it in practice, and you’ve seen it in streaks in games.”

•    His assignment: “I really believe it’s just reps. The interesting thing about reps is that if you don’t have great technique and you keep repping it, you still won’t make shots, because that’s the point. You have to change what you’re doing. He has pretty good technique. He just has to make sure he reps that consistently.”

And1 for posting this.

If there was any doubt before; I mean ANY doubt whatsoever as to what Stevens motivations have been during the preseason or what Marcus was doing during the preseason it's crystal clear now. Any talk of Marcus not being able to get to the rim as evidenced by his preseason work is officially DOA. If you don't like Stevens isn't playing to the players strengths first or you don't like him as a coach then say so. Perfectly fine. You don't have to like the way Stevens thinks at all. You just have to accept that that is what he is doing.

It would be good to have a new discussion thread in light of that Boston Herald article and this one from ESPN (http://espn.go.com/boston/nba/story/_/i ... pon-season). There was also a marked increase in 3-point attempts, 3PAs in relation to overall FGAs, and fortunately, 3FG% in the preseason. It seems that trend's likely to continue onto the regular season as a means to space the floor and open lanes for drives/cuts/open midrange Js/even postups. I'd like to hear what people think about this strategy. Are we doomed to "live and die by the 3" or is this just a means to an end and also a way to optimize the roster's strengths (esp. the long-range shooting bigs)? Are our guards/wings good enough to maintain an average to high % from the 3? Are we the 2012-13 Knicks now (which may not be necessarily a bad thing since they made the playoffs)?