Grade the WIzards 2014 Offseason

[nate33]

What is Rice's status? They will have to offer him a QO next summer (2015) in order to keep his rights, correct? Obviously, I fully expect they will do so, and assuming he accepts the QO, does he then become a RFA in 2016? Or a UFA? I suppose it's possible we could have a Parsons situation on our hands, but I'm not seeing Rice get a $15M per offer. If they can keep him using the low cap hold and then re-sign him after Durant (or whoever) signs as a FA, that would be a huge boost to the depth issue they're sure to have in the 2016-17 season.

2nd round picks (or any other non-1st round pick) are restricted free agents after 3 years. So we would put forth a qualifying offer in 2015 and have the right to match any offer. Some other team could muck up our plan like what Cuban did to Morey, but my guess is that Rice wouldn't garner that kind of attention. The most likely scenario is that, since our qualifying offer is greater than the vet minimum (by about 25%), other teams would pass him over looking to sign other guys for vet minimum contracts rather than having to use cap exceptions or cap room to make a play for Rice. We would keep Rice for about $1.2M in 2015/16, and then he would have a cap hold of about $3M in 2016.

Thanks, nate -that makes sense. So technically, he's a RFA both this coming summer (2015) and the next (2016), assuming he signs the QO?

He'd be a RFA in 2015 and a UFA in 2016.

[barelyawake]

Fish, yes I agree that one, or many, can misinterpret whose fault a certain defensive play is. They certainly can while cataloging and interpreting stats as well.

As I said, I was in no way trying to start the annual stats aren't bible debate. I know the history of this board well if we are having that fight (hint: stats weren't the best predictor many times).

I think Nivek's dog died or something because twice he jumped in arguing things I was in no way arguing. I wasn't even trying to argue. My point was fairly simple -- we have less defensive players which will put more pressure on Gortat and I question whether he can handle that load given his skillset. Period. End of point.

Moving on hopefully...

[Kanyewest]

MCW was ROY because he played more and shot more than any other rookie - in a lousy rookie class. I'm still not convinced he'll be more than an average starting PG. I don't care for his offensive game, and defensively - despite being great at stealing the ball - the lousy 6ers were better defensively with him off the floor. If Noel would have been the pick, things would be a lot easier now for the Wiz, but there's no use curdling skim milk.

Wizards still would have had to deal with Eric Maynor if they had taken Noel. I think I would rather have Giannis Antetokoumpo given what we know now.

[closg00]

We could have done better than Butler, Temple, and Seraphin filling-out our bench.

[DCZards]

We could have done better than Butler, Temple, and Seraphin filling-out our bench.

You're looking for a problem where there really isn't one. Blair, Nene, Rice, Beal and Webster will get all of the run these guys got in the first game. Temple will primarily be a defensive specialist in particular situations, Seraphin will have to prove he deserves minutes over Blair/Hump, and Butler will most likely either be inactive or waived in a few weeks.

[Nivek]

We could have done better than Butler, Temple, and Seraphin filling-out our bench.

You're looking for a problem where there really isn't one. Blair, Nene, Rice, Beal and Webster will get all of the run these guys got in the first game. Temple will primarily be a defensive specialist in particular situations, Seraphin will have to prove he deserves minutes over Blair/Hump, and Butler will most likely either be inactive or waived in a few weeks.

While I agree with your overall point, they still could have done better than Butler, Temple and Seraphin.

[DCZards]

We could have done better than Butler, Temple, and Seraphin filling-out our bench.

You're looking for a problem where there really isn't one. Blair, Nene, Rice, Beal and Webster will get all of the run these guys got in the first game. Temple will primarily be a defensive specialist in particular situations, Seraphin will have to prove he deserves minutes over Blair/Hump, and Butler will most likely either be inactive or waived in a few weeks.

While I agree with your overall point, they still could have done better than Butler, Temple and Seraphin.

We all like to say "they could have done better..." but it begs the question: What quality players could the Zards have gotten who would be willing to essentially be the last three bench players...and on cheap contracts? Any names?

[Nivek]

We all like to say "they could have done better..." but it begs the question: What quality players could the Zards have gotten who would be willing to essentially be the last three bench players...and on cheap contracts? Any names?

I'm reasonably sure I posted a number of possible players for the Wizards in various threads throughout the offseason. Don't really see the point in going back and digging up old posts and/or old lists. This is one of those interesting things about the NBA. Seraphin and Temple are both really good at basketball. Top 600-700 players in the world, most likely. Yet, they've each demonstrated they're bad NBA players.

Seraphin was the league's least productive center two seasons ago. He was second least productive last season. Temple was among the league's least productive guards. Basically, the front office could pick a couple random guys from the D-League to play as unproductively as Seraphin and Temple. With some scouting and analysis, they could surely do better picking up guys from D-League or overseas.

I don't mind Butler as much. He was okay last season for an end of the bench guy. Replacing a couple of the worst players in the league shouldn't be a challenge for a front office, though.

[dckingsfan]

Especially Seraphin - $3,898,692 really? Temple - $981,084 - meh.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Especially Seraphin - $3,898,692 really? Temple - $981,084 - meh.

Instead of sticking with familiar faces, the Wizards would have been better off waiting to see who got waived by other teams.

--Instead of Temple they could have Will Bynum or JJ Barea.

--Instead of Seraphin they could have kept Khem Birch for the D League. Another talented free agent they could have added is Arnett Moultrie. I think he's potentially a good, young, stretch 4. The Wizards seem to only value older stretch fours.

--Robert Covington just got signed by the 76ers. With Porter and Rice being young, Covington wouldn't get a look but I think he's on a par at least.

Seraphin might fetch something in a trade, hopefully a fast PG.

[closg00]

Especially Seraphin - $3,898,692 really? Temple - $981,084 - meh.

Instead of sticking with familiar faces, the Wizards would have been better off waiting to see who got waived by other teams.

--Instead of Temple they could have Will Bynum or JJ Barea.

--Instead of Seraphin they could have kept Khem Birch for the D League. Another talented free agent they could have added is Arnett Moultrie. I think he's potentially a good, young, stretch 4. The Wizards seem to only value older stretch fours.

--Robert Covington just got signed by the 76ers. With Porter and Rice being young, Covington wouldn't get a look but I think he's on a par at least.

Seraphin might fetch something in a trade, hopefully a fast PG.

You beat me on Covington, this sure sounds like someone I would have added were Temple or Butler not on the roster....in a heartbeat for that non-guaranteed contract.

Free agent forward Robert Covington and the Philadelphia 76ers progressed toward finalizing a multi-year contract this week, but a deal has deteriorated as the two sides failed to agree upon contract length, league sources told RealGM.

Without an NBA deal, Covington is expected to sign a contract in the NBA Development League on Thursday, where several organizations plan to monitor the 6-foot-9 forward. The 76ers had offered Covington their standard, four-year proposal, with high contract guarantees, and both sides couldn’t agree to a shorter-term deal.

Covington was formally waived by the Houston Rockets over the weekend, despite being informed of a parting with the franchise early in October.

An undrafted prospect out of Tennessee State, Covington had a breakout season in the D-League a year ago, averaging 23.2 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.4 steals for Rio Grande Valley and winning several awards (All-Star Game MVP, All D-League First Team).

He averaged 2.3 points and 4.8 minutes in seven regular-season appearances for the Rockets.

[closg00]

*Bump* Weigh-in now with the benefit of over half a season played. Is this unfair? Perhaps, but this is a message board so what the heck.

[closg00]

It's a C+ for me. Replace the minutes of Ariza, Booker and Seraphin with Pierce, Humphries and Blair, and my eWins stats suggests the team would be about the same as it was last season. The uptick in Humphries + Blair over Booker + Seraphin (largely because Seraphin was so awful -- Booker was close to Humphries in production last season (per minute), but better than Blair) offsets the dropoff from Ariza to Pierce. Not sure Pierce could have played the additional 700 minutes Ariza did last season, but I'm ignoring that for now.

Humphries and Blair are excellent values for their production -- I'd rather have either of those guys at the fairly low salaries they got than Booker at the higher salary he reportedly got from Utah.

I wouldn't have added Pierce, even though he was pretty good last season. At his age, players sometimes have major dropoffs, seemingly overnight. And they get hurt. And recovery times are longer when they get hurt.

For the most part, this was a paint-by-numbers offseason due to the moves they've made in the past couple years. I'd give them the "plus" because they got a little creative (ahem, used the team-level RealGM Trade Checker) in acquiring Humphries and Blair.

I almost took the "plus" away for re-signing Seraphin, but I'm just back from vacation and I'm feeling generous.

Good early call by TSW, the Wizards need to hire him.

[payitforward]

It's a C+ for me. Replace the minutes of Ariza, Booker and Seraphin with Pierce, Humphries and Blair, and my eWins stats suggests the team would be about the same as it was last season. The uptick in Humphries + Blair over Booker + Seraphin (largely because Seraphin was so awful -- Booker was close to Humphries in production last season (per minute), but better than Blair) offsets the dropoff from Ariza to Pierce. Not sure Pierce could have played the additional 700 minutes Ariza did last season, but I'm ignoring that for now.

Humphries and Blair are excellent values for their production -- I'd rather have either of those guys at the fairly low salaries they got than Booker at the higher salary he reportedly got from Utah.

I wouldn't have added Pierce, even though he was pretty good last season. At his age, players sometimes have major dropoffs, seemingly overnight. And they get hurt. And recovery times are longer when they get hurt.

For the most part, this was a paint-by-numbers offseason due to the moves they've made in the past couple years. I'd give them the "plus" because they got a little creative (ahem, used the team-level RealGM Trade Checker) in acquiring Humphries and Blair.

I almost took the "plus" away for re-signing Seraphin, but I'm just back from vacation and I'm feeling generous.

Good early call by TSW, the Wizards need to hire him.

The grade is a good call (and "generous", as Kev mentions). But -- no surprise! -- the particulars didn't unfold in a way that provided the underpinning for the grade. I.e. Humphries + Blair haven't provided the "uptick" over Booker + Seraphin that Kev suggests, because Blair hasn't played but Seraphin has seen his minutes rise by 50%.

Hence, that "uptick" hasn't been there to "offset the dropoff from Ariza to Pierce." OTOH, Pierce hasn't had a "major dropoff" -- on the season, he's playing at virtually the same level he played at on the season last year. Unfortunately, last year his 2d half was better, and this year he has gone a little downhill over the last 6 weeks.

Of course, we got an unpredictable piece of good luck in Rasual Butler's high level of play through the first 30-35 (more?) games of the season. Had he stayed at that level he'd have been a great candidate for 6th man and I think the best candidate for comeback player of the year (do they give out that award???).

Then Ernie traded Andre Miller for Ramon Sessions -- a better player for a worse one. But that's not off-season....