Why Marcus Smart should start at SG

[DarkAzcura]

I've been hyping and hoping for high 3PArs for a while. Probably since the Doc era as we aged. I don't buy into the concept of living and dying by the 3. In today's NBA, you have to do one of two things really well. Hit 3s or draw fouls. This is key to an efficient offense. Other than Smart and Turner, our guys aren't particularly known for drawing fouls. As a team, we aren't necessarily great with the 3 ball either, but that is a far easier thing to accomplish than turning your players into hyper aggressive foul drawing machines. It fits our player's styles more overall to shoot.

In my opinion, the Knicks didn't fall off because they lived and died by the 3. They were just a mentally weak team that iso'd too often.

Shooting 3's should open up plenty of movement and cuts to the basket. While I like seeing the spread of the offense, it needs to be used to open looks at the rim.

[ConstableGeneva]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB15tLLI8ZI[/youtube]
I just can't get enough of this guy. In his debut, he looked like he's played in the league for years. Picking pockets, hustling for loose balls, outrebounding a center, completing a 4-point play, finishing in transition, making sound and simple passes. Gotta love it! Keep it up, kid! Next assignment: Harden, Beverley, old friend Jason Terry

And no, I still think Marcus should come as the first guard off the bench instead of starting. We need to keep that energy up throughout the game.

[sam_I_am]

Thing is, I'm starting to detect a shell game forming. At first, the argument was that Smart cannot drive thelane. That was the original debate. Because Smart was choosing to hoist everytime his defender went under the pick. So now the argument has changed to "Smart will never be a good shooter as evidenced by his 19% through 5 preseason games". The goalposts are just gonna keep getting pushed back because Smart is not the same player as Russell Westbrook. It's a silly argument. I don't know that Smart will ever be a great perimeter shooter. Do I think he can be average? Sure. And I know he can drive and get to the rim and score in the paint and get to the line. So add all that up and you have a very good player. Maybe he doesn't hit all those numbers his first year. Or even the second. But I have enough faith in what I have seen of him so fair and of his work ethic that in 3 years we are going to have a helluva player.

Actually it is simple math. Rondo, Westbrook and Rose suck as outside shooters and yet despite that end up shooting 50% from the field. Smart is shooting 36% from the field ( actually worse because ESPN only calculates last 5 games). The way he improves that number to join company of the elite PGs who can't shoot is to morph into a Steph Curry type 50% outside shooter ( something that I've never seen a player do in my 30 years as a fan ) OR to do something he hasn't done in preseason or in summer league: get to the rim regularly and score at a high percentage.

Now many here are making the excuse that it is coaching to blame. That seems so unlikely - but I have never chatted with a Celtic coach and maybe some of you have and have that inside scoop. I'll remain skeptical. If he can do it - he needs to prove it. Maybe he will, and when that happens I'll believe it. But I have my doubts because the speed and explosiveness required don't seem to be there.

Well first of all, Westbrook has never been a 50% shooter in his life.

Second of all, even if Smart shot 38/30/75 with a 45% 3Pr and a 45% FTr, he'd be as efficient as Rondo was in his 50% FG year. That's what shooting 3s and getting to the line does, even if your 3PT percentage isn't that hot. Two things Rondo never did/does (obviously Rondo shoots 3s under Stevens' system now). Even with a crappy 32/25 split, Smart still managed a PPS (1.12) 10% lower than Rondo's most efficient year. Now that doesn't make me particularly happy or anything because I want to see Smart shooting better than 32% FG, and everyone knows I love Rondo anyway. I'm just putting things in perspective regarding his raw shooting percentages. It can be misleading.

Despite having a 75% 3Pr, Smart STILL managed a 40% FTr. That's actually quite awesome all things considering. Slart and you are very smart guys, but I don't think you guys are looking into the numbers enough. I believe in the eye test as much as the next person, but statistics are very valuable. Fact of the matter is, no one would have any issue with any player who had a 45% FG in the mid-range, no? Well that's exactly what a 30% 3PT equates to. Smart shot the 3 ball 25% in pre-season. Not that great, but again, it's just pre-season. I don't expect his 3Pr to be at 75% by the end of the season so his 3PT% should rise a bit with less volume from there.

If the kid is a poor shooter, it makes a lot of sense from my perspective to have him shoot every single time he touches the ball in preseason. Why would we need him to do something we already know he excels at? He's a young player, and the team stands to benefit significantly if he can improve his outside shot. I'm not sure why you think otherwise.

I'm just pointing how extreme Smart's preference for 3's has been relative to other similar talented athletic guards with sketchy jump shots.

Victor Oladipo took 4/12 of his preseason shots from 3. He ended up taking 3/12 of his shots from 3 during the season.

MCW took 4/10 preseason shots from 3 and 3/15 in the regular season.

Dennis Schroeder took 3/9 shots from 3 in preseason and 1/3 in the regular season.

Payton obviously hasn't played a regular season game yet, but he took less than 1/6 from deep.

Exum is taking 2/4 of his from 3 (and making them at a solid 35% clip).

Smart is taking 6/8 of his shots from 3.

He's taken more 3's in volume and as a percentage of overall shots than similar types of rookies, and if the examples of Dipo, MCW and Schroeder are any indication, he's not likely to suddenly invert those ratios once the real games begin. Seems to me there's a good chance that Smart takes more than 50% of his regular season shots from downtown.

None of this is to say that Smart or his jumper is broken, just that I don't like the way he's going about scoring the ball as a pro so far.

But the thing is, if Smart was really doing something wrong out there, wouldn't the coaching staff pull him? Isn't that reason enough to believe, the coaching staff may be confident enough he'll develop his driving game in time because it's natural to him? 75% 3Pr for a guy as aggressive as Smart is not normal. You are exactly right. That's the exact reason we can assume something is up in the background. It's either he's struggling in practice so he doesn't have the green light to drive yet, or Stevens is comfortable that will come with time and his 3 ball is the most important thing right now. Considering he still managed a 40% FTr with a ridiculously high 3PAr, we know the aggressive game is there, and I tend to lean more on the latter of my two hypotheticals because he still managed a high FTr.

So I noticed in your last post that you were hinting that it may not be worth Smart taking a ton of 3s if he is going to shoot them at sub 30%. I don't really agree with that for a reason I stated above. If Smart is going to have a 30% 3P this year, I actually want to see him taking about 35-40% of his shots from there. Three point shots are a very, very efficient shot (even at low percentages), and when combined with a high FTr, it can be a deadly duo for a player. I'm also not comfortable that he can get up to the 45% range in the mid-range. It's probably easier for him to hit 30% from 3 than 45% from 16-18 feet so I think it's clear what the preferable jumpshot here should be a majority of the time.

Maybe I'm dismissing a poor offensive outing, but I feel I'm doing it within reason. I do it with all rookies, and I would have felt the same about TA and Rondo back in the day. I've been watching Smart play, and I've seen him in the lane multiple times only to kick the ball out. For the most part, he looked comfortable while handling the ball. I saw no reason he couldn't put up a floater or a couple layups, but he chose not to. That's why I'm comfortable believing he was just working on the weaknesses in his game. Maybe (definitely) too extremely, but that's how I feel when I watch him. It's also the fact that despite barely attacking, he still managed 3 FTA/game, which is on another planet compared to what I'm used to watching with Rondo and Bradley. That's another reason why I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

You mentioned that this type of development is not typical of attacking guards that can't shoot, and you are right. Typically coaching staffs don't want guys who can't shoot, shooting in games regardless of the result. That's part of the reason I like Stevens a lot. No coach in the league other than maybe Pop would have let Sullinger do what he did last season. A 27% 3P with a constant green light? Crazy stuff, but it may have paid off.

Anyway, to reel back a little bit, I do understand this isn't 100% coaching. Smart did have a 42% 3PAr in college after all. In the end, that's what (I hope) he settles down to if he can get in the 30% 3PM range. His shot selection was questionable in draft reports so I understand the skepticism a bit. I just think someone seemingly as intelligent as Smart would not be taking 75% of his shots from 3 unless he was told to take a bunch of 3s to fit into the offense. I just can't help but think that if Smart wasn't directed at least a little to shoot 3s that Stevens would have probably benched him more often.

Also, I've been meaning to make this chart for a while. I was going to make it before pre-season started to show the impact a high free throw and three point rate can have. Obviously the raw FG%/3PT% doesn't look good in the picture below, and I'm not trying to hype it up with this point. More, I'm trying to give perspective on what the numbers would look like with certain/potential rates and percentages.

For one situation, I considered 40/30/75 splits with a 45% 3PAr/45% FTr and 55% 3PAr/40% FTr respectively. I did the same in the next situation for 35/25/75 splits with a 45% 3PAr/45% FTr and 55% 3PAr/40% FTr respectively. We aren't looking at amazing numbers or anything, but I used the FGA/min he received in pre-season, which seems realistic for what he may see in the regular season. He most likely won't see his college FGA/min unless he adjusts really well as the season progresses. The last situation was more for fun. If he maintained his crazy 73% 3Pr and 40% FTr. You can see TS% for each situation and compare it to Rondo's most efficient year (because I know some people like to think 50% is really, really good..it unfortunately loses its luster if you aren't the best at finishing your free throws) and Smart's sophomore year. One thing I forgot about Rondo was that he actually used to draw fouls a lot more earlier in his career even if he couldn't hit them.

You'll see that in the 40/30/75 situation that Smart actually comes very close to matching Rondo's most efficient year (which is actually pretty decent) with high three point and free throw rates. That's why a 28-30% 3PT can kind of be misleading. I know a lot of people don't want those kind of players shooting a bunch of 3s, but in all honestly, it's not that bad. That's why I never minded Sully's 3PT% last year. I only care if they can shoot the mid-range shot more efficient, which in a 30% 3PT shooter's case, he would have to be above 45% as a mid-range shooter.

You'll also see that as a 35/25/75 shooter he's obviously not looking too hot, but it's not as bad as you would think it is with a positive PPG/FGA differential. I won't excuse that, though. Obviously even I would be disappointed if it turns out that badly, but we'll see.



I made an excel sheet for predicting PPG, TS%, etc based on a couple rates a looong time ago. Always was interested in the whole 3PT/FT efficiency thing.

Wow, this new learning is amazing. So Antoine Walker was really ahead of his time and actually was a superstar. When the game is on the line, I guess we want Smart chucking up his 19% 3 pointer rather than Rondo slashing to the rim with his outdated 48% FG% and his self centered dishing for ego massaging assists that lead to shameful midrange bunnies.

[KJandHondo35]

Wow, this new learning is amazing. So Antoine Walker was really ahead of his time and actually was a superstar. When the game is on the line, I guess we want Smart chucking up his 19% 3 pointer rather than Rondo slashing to the rim with his outdated 48% FG% and his self centered dishing for ego massaging assists that lead to shameful midrange bunnies.

At least use real stats. I’ll help you out, In games that count Smart is shooting 25% from 3, 43%FG and 100% FT, and he’s 5th in the NBA in Steals with 4. Like I’m all for differing opinions but have you noticed how Stevens in almost every interview gushes about how “He’s (Smart) one of the most unique players I’ve ever coached in his ability to raise the energy of your team”, or “what he does won’t show up in a stat sheet”. Or how it’s not just Stevens that feels this way, every coach Smart has ever played for has nothing but compliments and praise for him and his value to a team. He affects the game considerably (for the better) as a 20 year old rookie, his 10ppg today will probably be 15-18 in a few seasons, he clearly had the best game out of all the rookies, and I can’t see someone with his work ethic and intangibles not improve.

[VeryMuchWoke]

Wow, this new learning is amazing. So Antoine Walker was really ahead of his time and actually was a superstar. When the game is on the line, I guess we want Smart chucking up his 19% 3 pointer rather than Rondo slashing to the rim with his outdated 48% FG% and his self centered dishing for ego massaging assists that lead to shameful midrange bunnies.

At least use real stats. I’ll help you out, In games that count Smart is shooting 25% from 3, 43%FG and 100% FT, and he’s 5th in the NBA in Steals with 4. Like I’m all for differing opinions but have you noticed how Stevens in almost every interview gushes about how “He’s (Smart) one of the most unique players I’ve ever coached in his ability to raise the energy of your team”, or “what he does won’t show up in a stat sheet”. Or how it’s not just Stevens that feels this way, every coach Smart has ever played for has nothing but compliments and praise for him and his value to a team. He affects the game considerably (for the better) as a 20 year old rookie, his 10ppg today will probably be 15-18 in a few seasons, he clearly had the best game out of all the rookies, and I can’t see someone with his work ethic and intangibles not improve.

Don't bother trying to reason with him. He's got it in his head that Rondo and Smart can't coexist so he'll do anything to detract from Smart's play.

[bbd24]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB15tLLI8ZI[/youtube]
I just can't get enough of this guy. In his debut, he looked like he's played in the league for years. Picking pockets, hustling for loose balls, outrebounding a center, completing a 4-point play, finishing in transition, making sound and simple passes. Gotta love it! Keep it up, kid! Next assignment: Harden, Beverley, old friend Jason Terry

And no, I still think Marcus should come as the first guard off the bench instead of starting. We need to keep that energy up throughout the game.

That's a 20 yr old right there !

When you got a shot at being the best defender at the PG spot at 20 yrs old, you're pretty darn special.

All NBA 1st team defender. Not sure when that title will officially come, but it will. It just might come sooner rather than later.

[sam_I_am]

Wow, this new learning is amazing. So Antoine Walker was really ahead of his time and actually was a superstar. When the game is on the line, I guess we want Smart chucking up his 19% 3 pointer rather than Rondo slashing to the rim with his outdated 48% FG% and his self centered dishing for ego massaging assists that lead to shameful midrange bunnies.

At least use real stats. I’ll help you out, In games that count Smart is shooting 25% from 3, 43%FG and 100% FT, and he’s 5th in the NBA in Steals with 4. Like I’m all for differing opinions but have you noticed how Stevens in almost every interview gushes about how “He’s (Smart) one of the most unique players I’ve ever coached in his ability to raise the energy of your team”, or “what he does won’t show up in a stat sheet”. Or how it’s not just Stevens that feels this way, every coach Smart has ever played for has nothing but compliments and praise for him and his value to a team. He affects the game considerably (for the better) as a 20 year old rookie, his 10ppg today will probably be 15-18 in a few seasons, he clearly had the best game out of all the rookies, and I can’t see someone with his work ethic and intangibles not improve.

I like the intangibles. Just don't BS about the tangibles. Until he actually is a good shooter- he isn't.

And where were you when everybody was trashing Rondo? I have no issue with Smart backing up Rondo and Avery - love it in fact. I think he is a great role player right now. Just don't tell me we can let Rondo go because right now there is no comparison.

[DarkAzcura]

Wow, this new learning is amazing. So Antoine Walker was really ahead of his time and actually was a superstar. When the game is on the line, I guess we want Smart chucking up his 19% 3 pointer rather than Rondo slashing to the rim with his outdated 48% FG% and his self centered dishing for ego massaging assists that lead to shameful midrange bunnies.

At least use real stats. I’ll help you out, In games that count Smart is shooting 25% from 3, 43%FG and 100% FT, and he’s 5th in the NBA in Steals with 4. Like I’m all for differing opinions but have you noticed how Stevens in almost every interview gushes about how “He’s (Smart) one of the most unique players I’ve ever coached in his ability to raise the energy of your team”, or “what he does won’t show up in a stat sheet”. Or how it’s not just Stevens that feels this way, every coach Smart has ever played for has nothing but compliments and praise for him and his value to a team. He affects the game considerably (for the better) as a 20 year old rookie, his 10ppg today will probably be 15-18 in a few seasons, he clearly had the best game out of all the rookies, and I can’t see someone with his work ethic and intangibles not improve.

I like the intangibles. Just don't BS about the tangibles. Until he actually is a good shooter- he isn't.

And where were you when everybody was trashing Rondo? I have no issue with Smart backing up Rondo and Avery - love it in fact. I think he is a great role player right now. Just don't tell me we can let Rondo go because right now there is no comparison.

Well I never said I wanted to let go of Rondo. I consider myself to be one of his biggest supporters, and I want him to retire with us in all honesty. I was simply highlighting the benefits of shooting 3s and drawing fouls even at low made 3PT%. I was highlighting scenarios that look terrible at first glance but aren't as bad as you think when you dig to figure out their TS%. I don't think Smart shooting 25% from 3 is a good thing at all, but it's not terrible for his rookie year. I'd be happy with 30-33% eventually. Anything higher, and he raises his ceiling significantly higher. I think you missed the point of my post if all you took from it was that 19% shooting is good and Walker was ahead of his time.

[lon3lytoaster]

The fact Smart racks up these steals without really gambling is extremely nice. He's either in the right spot or he takes it from you. I love it.

[sam_I_am]

Actually I like the point you are making DAzura. I just have an axe to grind after a whole summer of hearing how Rondo had to go. I like Smart, but he isn't close to Rondo's level yet and he is playing like a guy who thinks he is a jumper. In 3 years when Smart is ready for a big contract we will see if he can replace RR. Not now.

[bbd24]

Actually I like the point you are making DAzura. I just have an axe to grind after a whole summer of hearing how Rondo had to go. I like Smart, but he isn't close to Rondo's level yet and he is playing like a guy who thinks he is a jumper. In 3 years when Smart is ready for a big contract we will see if he can replace RR. Not now.

I think the question was if Smart could start next to Rondo at the SG position. Considering his defense alone, the answer to that question is: Oh hellllll yessssss

With or without a jumpshot, you need this guy on the court.

Ain't nothing but a 'D' thang.

[bbd24]

The fact Smart racks up these steals without really gambling is extremely nice. He's either in the right spot or he takes it from you. I love it.

He's just all up in noses, in your grill, in your space. It's hard not to get frustrated when a defender plays you like he does.

[ConstableGeneva]

Actually I like the point you are making DAzura. I just have an axe to grind after a whole summer of hearing how Rondo had to go. I like Smart, but he isn't close to Rondo's level yet and he is playing like a guy who thinks he is a jumper. In 3 years when Smart is ready for a big contract we will see if he can replace RR. Not now.

I think the question was if Smart could start next to Rondo at the SG position. Considering his defense alone, the answer to that question is: Oh hellllll yessssss

With or without a jumpshot, you need this guy on the court.

Ain't nothing but a 'D' thang.

I prefer Bradley starting with Rondo since they're already familiar with each other (and the other 3 starters). Also, having someone like Smart off-the-bench is a huge plus. If Bradley's not D'ing up as he should, Brad can pull him anytime. But I love that even in his debut, Smart already was given near-starter minutes. That's how much Stevens thinks he impacts the game. And this also challenges the other guards/wings to raise their game. If a 20-year old can put in the effort on both ends the way he does, so should they.

[soxfan2003]

Actually it is simple math. Rondo, Westbrook and Rose suck as outside shooters and yet despite that end up shooting 50% from the field. Smart is shooting 36% from the field ( actually worse because ESPN only calculates last 5 games). The way he improves that number to join company of the elite PGs who can't shoot is to morph into a Steph Curry type 50% outside shooter ( something that I've never seen a player do in my 30 years as a fan ) OR to do something he hasn't done in preseason or in summer league: get to the rim regularly and score at a high percentage.

Now many here are making the excuse that it is coaching to blame. That seems so unlikely - but I have never chatted with a Celtic coach and maybe some of you have and have that inside scoop. I'll remain skeptical. If he can do it - he needs to prove it. Maybe he will, and when that happens I'll believe it. But I have my doubts because the speed and explosiveness required don't seem to be there.

Well first of all, Westbrook has never been a 50% shooter in his life.

Second of all, even if Smart shot 38/30/75 with a 45% 3Pr and a 45% FTr, he'd be as efficient as Rondo was in his 50% FG year. That's what shooting 3s and getting to the line does, even if your 3PT percentage isn't that hot. Two things Rondo never did/does (obviously Rondo shoots 3s under Stevens' system now). Even with a crappy 32/25 split, Smart still managed a PPS (1.12) 10% lower than Rondo's most efficient year. Now that doesn't make me particularly happy or anything because I want to see Smart shooting better than 32% FG, and everyone knows I love Rondo anyway. I'm just putting things in perspective regarding his raw shooting percentages. It can be misleading.

Despite having a 75% 3Pr, Smart STILL managed a 40% FTr. That's actually quite awesome all things considering. Slart and you are very smart guys, but I don't think you guys are looking into the numbers enough. I believe in the eye test as much as the next person, but statistics are very valuable. Fact of the matter is, no one would have any issue with any player who had a 45% FG in the mid-range, no? Well that's exactly what a 30% 3PT equates to. Smart shot the 3 ball 25% in pre-season. Not that great, but again, it's just pre-season. I don't expect his 3Pr to be at 75% by the end of the season so his 3PT% should rise a bit with less volume from there.

I'm just pointing how extreme Smart's preference for 3's has been relative to other similar talented athletic guards with sketchy jump shots.

Victor Oladipo took 4/12 of his preseason shots from 3. He ended up taking 3/12 of his shots from 3 during the season.

MCW took 4/10 preseason shots from 3 and 3/15 in the regular season.

Dennis Schroeder took 3/9 shots from 3 in preseason and 1/3 in the regular season.

Payton obviously hasn't played a regular season game yet, but he took less than 1/6 from deep.

Exum is taking 2/4 of his from 3 (and making them at a solid 35% clip).

Smart is taking 6/8 of his shots from 3.

He's taken more 3's in volume and as a percentage of overall shots than similar types of rookies, and if the examples of Dipo, MCW and Schroeder are any indication, he's not likely to suddenly invert those ratios once the real games begin. Seems to me there's a good chance that Smart takes more than 50% of his regular season shots from downtown.

None of this is to say that Smart or his jumper is broken, just that I don't like the way he's going about scoring the ball as a pro so far.

But the thing is, if Smart was really doing something wrong out there, wouldn't the coaching staff pull him? Isn't that reason enough to believe, the coaching staff may be confident enough he'll develop his driving game in time because it's natural to him? 75% 3Pr for a guy as aggressive as Smart is not normal. You are exactly right. That's the exact reason we can assume something is up in the background. It's either he's struggling in practice so he doesn't have the green light to drive yet, or Stevens is comfortable that will come with time and his 3 ball is the most important thing right now. Considering he still managed a 40% FTr with a ridiculously high 3PAr, we know the aggressive game is there, and I tend to lean more on the latter of my two hypotheticals because he still managed a high FTr.

So I noticed in your last post that you were hinting that it may not be worth Smart taking a ton of 3s if he is going to shoot them at sub 30%. I don't really agree with that for a reason I stated above. If Smart is going to have a 30% 3P this year, I actually want to see him taking about 35-40% of his shots from there. Three point shots are a very, very efficient shot (even at low percentages), and when combined with a high FTr, it can be a deadly duo for a player. I'm also not comfortable that he can get up to the 45% range in the mid-range. It's probably easier for him to hit 30% from 3 than 45% from 16-18 feet so I think it's clear what the preferable jumpshot here should be a majority of the time.

Maybe I'm dismissing a poor offensive outing, but I feel I'm doing it within reason. I do it with all rookies, and I would have felt the same about TA and Rondo back in the day. I've been watching Smart play, and I've seen him in the lane multiple times only to kick the ball out. For the most part, he looked comfortable while handling the ball. I saw no reason he couldn't put up a floater or a couple layups, but he chose not to. That's why I'm comfortable believing he was just working on the weaknesses in his game. Maybe (definitely) too extremely, but that's how I feel when I watch him. It's also the fact that despite barely attacking, he still managed 3 FTA/game, which is on another planet compared to what I'm used to watching with Rondo and Bradley. That's another reason why I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

You mentioned that this type of development is not typical of attacking guards that can't shoot, and you are right. Typically coaching staffs don't want guys who can't shoot, shooting in games regardless of the result. That's part of the reason I like Stevens a lot. No coach in the league other than maybe Pop would have let Sullinger do what he did last season. A 27% 3P with a constant green light? Crazy stuff, but it may have paid off.

Anyway, to reel back a little bit, I do understand this isn't 100% coaching. Smart did have a 42% 3PAr in college after all. In the end, that's what (I hope) he settles down to if he can get in the 30% 3PM range. His shot selection was questionable in draft reports so I understand the skepticism a bit. I just think someone seemingly as intelligent as Smart would not be taking 75% of his shots from 3 unless he was told to take a bunch of 3s to fit into the offense. I just can't help but think that if Smart wasn't directed at least a little to shoot 3s that Stevens would have probably benched him more often.

Also, I've been meaning to make this chart for a while. I was going to make it before pre-season started to show the impact a high free throw and three point rate can have. Obviously the raw FG%/3PT% doesn't look good in the picture below, and I'm not trying to hype it up with this point. More, I'm trying to give perspective on what the numbers would look like with certain/potential rates and percentages.

For one situation, I considered 40/30/75 splits with a 45% 3PAr/45% FTr and 55% 3PAr/40% FTr respectively. I did the same in the next situation for 35/25/75 splits with a 45% 3PAr/45% FTr and 55% 3PAr/40% FTr respectively. We aren't looking at amazing numbers or anything, but I used the FGA/min he received in pre-season, which seems realistic for what he may see in the regular season. He most likely won't see his college FGA/min unless he adjusts really well as the season progresses. The last situation was more for fun. If he maintained his crazy 73% 3Pr and 40% FTr. You can see TS% for each situation and compare it to Rondo's most efficient year (because I know some people like to think 50% is really, really good..it unfortunately loses its luster if you aren't the best at finishing your free throws) and Smart's sophomore year. One thing I forgot about Rondo was that he actually used to draw fouls a lot more earlier in his career even if he couldn't hit them.

You'll see that in the 40/30/75 situation that Smart actually comes very close to matching Rondo's most efficient year (which is actually pretty decent) with high three point and free throw rates. That's why a 28-30% 3PT can kind of be misleading. I know a lot of people don't want those kind of players shooting a bunch of 3s, but in all honestly, it's not that bad. That's why I never minded Sully's 3PT% last year. I only care if they can shoot the mid-range shot more efficient, which in a 30% 3PT shooter's case, he would have to be above 45% as a mid-range shooter.

You'll also see that as a 35/25/75 shooter he's obviously not looking too hot, but it's not as bad as you would think it is with a positive PPG/FGA differential. I won't excuse that, though. Obviously even I would be disappointed if it turns out that badly, but we'll see.



I made an excel sheet for predicting PPG, TS%, etc based on a couple rates a looong time ago. Always was interested in the whole 3PT/FT efficiency thing.

Wow, this new learning is amazing. So Antoine Walker was really ahead of his time and actually was a superstar. When the game is on the line, I guess we want Smart chucking up his 19% 3 pointer rather than Rondo slashing to the rim with his outdated 48% FG% and his self centered dishing for ego massaging assists that lead to shameful midrange bunnies.

Rondo hasn't proven to be a good end of the game scorer so at this point I don't want him or Smart taking a last shot. Right now, the Celtics probably just want whoever has a good open shot and perhaps Jeff Green since he can at least get off a shot against fairly good defense.

Just to let you know where I am coming from on Antoine Walker... Some Celtics fans probably thought he wasn't a top 60 NBA player in his better years while others thought he peaked as a top 15 or so NBA player. During his best years, I had Walker as about the 35th best player in the NBA and feel he was just an all-star since he played in the Eastern Conference. In some respects, Walker was ahead of his time in terms of the 3 ball but unfortunately his inability to hit a decent percentage from 3ft to the 3pt line hurt his value and not being much of a FT shooter/finisher hurt him as well.

Walker when he wanted to be was a pretty good defender despite his lack of length/leaping ability but Smart, barring injury, will be a hell of a lot better on that side of the court which is half of the game... You take Walker and have him shoot nearly all of his shots from within 3ft and the 3 pt line, hit free throws at a 80% rate and play defense like Marcus Smart and quite frankly I think you are looking at a very legit top 10 NBA player.

The problem with Smart on offense is there is no guarantee that he will hit 33% of his 3's in the regular season for his career like Walker at a fairly high volume of 3 point shooting and 35% of his 3's in the post season like Walker. And hit his free throws at 80% but if he does do all of those things, I don't see why he can't peak as a top 10 NBA player. The good news with Smart is he isn't showing Walker's signs of being a selfish player. That was my biggest worry from watching him play a lot last year that he would try to do too much.

I think Smart has a real good chance to be a top 25 NBA player whether he gets recognized by the coaches or not but in order to do so he will have to hit the 3 point shot at a reasonable rate.

And quite frankly I wouldn't care if Smart had taken 100% of his shots from 3 in preseason. I'm just happy the Celtics are at least focusing on the 3.

3 point shots may not be great basketball to watch for basketball purists like me but the stat geek in me realized in the mid 1980's that the Bob Cousy's of this world were foolish to denigrate players other then Bird shooting 3's while barely ever saying anything bad about mid range/long 2's.

[bbd24]

Actually I like the point you are making DAzura. I just have an axe to grind after a whole summer of hearing how Rondo had to go. I like Smart, but he isn't close to Rondo's level yet and he is playing like a guy who thinks he is a jumper. In 3 years when Smart is ready for a big contract we will see if he can replace RR. Not now.

I think the question was if Smart could start next to Rondo at the SG position. Considering his defense alone, the answer to that question is: Oh hellllll yessssss

With or without a jumpshot, you need this guy on the court.

Ain't nothing but a 'D' thang.

I prefer Bradley starting with Rondo since they're already familiar with each other (and the other 3 starters). Also, having someone like Smart off-the-bench is a huge plus. If Bradley's not D'ing up as he should, Brad can pull him anytime. But I love that even in his debut, Smart already was given near-starter minutes. That's how much Stevens thinks he impacts the game. And this also challenges the other guards/wings to raise their game. If a 20-year old can put in the effort on both ends the way he does, so should they.

No doubt. Definitely the right thing to do is start Bradley. I'm with ya. No need to rush Smart in there when you have Rondo & Bradley.

It does seem Smart is already one of Stevens favorites, & he impacts not only his opponents, but affects his teammates & their tenacity as well.

I also think it's funny that people talk about Avery Bradley like he's 33, instead of 23. He's still got a ways to go before his prime, and if he gets that consistency down sooner rather than later, we'll have 3 incredible guards to watch year in and year out in Rondo, Bradley, & Smart.

[DB Aussie]

Ahoy mates, I'm from Australia.

[brackdan70]

Ahoy mates, I'm from Australia.

Ahoy!!!

[texas celtic]

The good thing about Smart is that he is one of the most versatile players in the league. He's an above average player at 3 positions, so you can keep Rondo or leave Rondo, makes little difference.

Rondo can be the point guard for the first 3 quarters while Smart plays the 2 and 3, and then in the 4th quarter you can just put Rondo on the bench and ride Smart's clutch leadership at PG in the 4th quarter.

[grandpa surfer]

You do realize this would mean 3/5's of our starting lineup couldn't make a shot outside of 10 feet, don't you?

Sully might not have 3 point range, but he is a great mid-range/long two point shooter.

Jeff Green will no longer be burdened with the pressures of being the #1 scorer, a role that Smart is actually capable of and experienced in.

It would also be one of the best passing starting units in the league with Rondo, Smart, Green, Sully, and KO, and one of the best rebounding units as well.

Smart hit 45% or so of his open mid-range jump shots last year, and averaged 75% from the FT line over two years. In addition to pretty much matching James Harden's elite finishing at the rim and FTA per game. This is a guy with the confidence, skills, and athleticism/strength to be a top 1 or 2 scoring option from day 1.

I would bet that Smart can shoot around 35% from the corner 3 if he limits his attempts to open looks. Smart might shoot 40% from there, but Smart should be able to hold his own from the corner 3 while winning us a lot more games.

Maximum floor spacing is more important for teams that don't have elite finishers at the rim like Smart or Harden, or contract year Rondo.

How the hell did you know Smart could shoot so well? He's shooting 40%+ from the corner 3 already. Maybe he should be starting over Bradley after all.

[grandpa surfer]

Elite defensive talent is rare at the guard position these days. Smart looks like a stronger version of Dennis Johnson, but this caliber of talent is rare. We just happen to have two of them in Smart and Bradley, and we happened to have Tony Allen, another relatively rare defensive talent.

Rondo being overrated defensively in the past doesn't mean that guard defense is overrated. That's a logical fallacy. it just means that Rondo's defense was overrated.

Calling Smart and Bradley effectively the same size is like calling Jeff Green and Sullinger the same size. Smart weighs just about as much as Jeff Green, so Smart is as much Jeff Green's size as he is Avery Bradley's size.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-0MWR-VEog[/youtube]

Jonathan Givony @DraftExpress
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Marcus Smart also bench pressed 185 pounds 19 times, tied for 3rd best at the NBA Combine this year. One of best ever among PGs historically

ESPN Stats & Info ✔ @ESPNStatsInfo
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Marcus Smart's lane agility time of 10.82 is faster than John Wall (10.84), Russell Westbrook (10.98) and Chris Paul (11.09)

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2069 ... raft-stock" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

We lucked into a historically unique physical specimen who just happens to also be a great leader with great confidence and a great love of defense. Oh, and he also has point guard skills, is an rebounder for a guard, and he averaged 18 ppg in arguably the toughest conference in the country, with an outstanding PER two years in a row. Like, almost double Bradley's PER at Texas.

Smart is the kind of extremely rare player that could have multiple quadruple-doubles in his career, and as many triple doubles as Rondo.

Sometimes it's ok to start two triple-double threats in the backcourt. Sometimes rules of thumb and trendy wisdom about ideal roles for shooting guards go out the window.

Our big men need as much help as they can get this year. Help they didn't get last year. Help like 40 extra pounds of stat stuffing bad ass from the shooting guard position.

Smart is not just going to withstand opposing shooting guards, he is going to bully them around and crush their spirit. And that's how you start winning games you're not supposed to win. Over and over again.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0utw7005-Pw[/youtube]

"Trendy" analytic wisdom tells us that winning is exponentially easier when there are 3 or more legit three point threats in the lineup. Smart hasn't proven to be more than adaquete, uncontested, from college three point range....he's not starting anytime soon...

Guess what's trendy now? Marcus Smart and his shooting ability.