2016

[Heat_Fan_87]

if i am riley, i am doing everything it takes to get drummond in 2016.

[Heat3]

^^ that's what he sent Tim Hardaway to do. Sowing the seeds of discontent at the moment. It will bear fruit in a couple years

[walk with me]

is it safe to assume that in 2016 we will 100% be going after a center? Only reason i say that is because we gave bosh a 5 year vs a 2 year

[Dupas]

i thimk we are going hard on gasol next summer. and hes also the best fit for us..he averages 8 rebounds per game..but i guess thats because hes playing with zach. Drummon wont happen..the dude is rfa

[HEATVols865]

Just go after Eddie Jones, Brian Grant and Anthony Mason...add them to the lineup with Timmy and Zo and we will kill it!

Oh wait...


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[gom]

I didn't see a discussion about our future draft picks and I didn't want to start another future topic, so perhaps this is a good-enough place. 2016 will mean more cap space, of course, but it's also the year we will get draft picks back. In the meantime we have 2015 draft as well. Here are some thoughts related to our GM strategy.

In my opinion our main problem is our short-term paucity of draft picks. We really got burned by Lebron and Cleveland in the original deal (not saying it was a bad move - two rings and 4 East crowns is worth a lot) with respect to our team's future.

As a reminder, looking forward this is what we have:

2015: 1st round pick will go to PHL because we won't finish in the lottery.
2nd round pick.
If Sacramento finishes 6th-10th (they won’t) we get their pick.
2016: 1st round pick is ours,
2nd round pick is BOS (part of joel anthony deal, right?)
2017: 1st round pick is ours,
2nd round pick is to ATL if 31-40 (no chance imho), so it is settled in 2017
2018: 1st round pick is ours,
2nd round pick should be ours. (since Atlanta is likely settled in 2017)
No further compromises so all future picks are ours.

Going forward, what I see as one problem is for a SG that can eventually replace Dwyane Wade, but to get someone like that we need to be able to draft higher and that isn't going to happen because barring major injury to our stars, our team will likely always contend.

So, obviously Andre Dawson & Tyler Johnson both have some quality as SG prospects, but I don’t see them starting unless they have exceptional development. We can sign a replacement later on in free agency of course, but it is always nice to deal for a pick and bring him up through our system.

I think this year we finish 3rd or 4th in the East (before winning the playoffs and the nba championship, but that doesn’t figure into this calculation). Overall, I’m guessing that we will be likely 9th or 10thl. That means our PHL pick is 20th or 21st and belongs to them and our 2nd round pick will be 50th or 51st.

A shooting guard I like in that range is Jabari Bird from Richmond, Ca, who plays for Berkeley. He’s a sophomore and is athletic and can shoot and finish. He needs to improve defensively, but he plays for Cal and there are a lot of issues with the defense there. He likely will not move up much because the Pacific conference is very strong and, let's face it, there are plenty of stronger, more developed players. He is, imo, still a great prospect however.

We also need a big and the 2015 draft is so loaded with good centers and power forwards who dominate that we have a good chance even our range to pick up someone with talent. One player at UC Irvine is not expected to go very high. He is a really raw player, but one thing he does have: 7’6” and 300 lbs of power that can move. He is from Senegal and (like Joel Embiid) played a lot of soccer, which is where the mobility comes from.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mamadou_N% ... _born_1993)

Finally, and this is a long shot, another SG, Michael Frazier II, a Gator, is ranked a little higher than Bird. If he drops, I think we should take him. Great 3 point shooter - actually set a record at UF last year. He doesn’t cut and slash and also has defensive issues, but I think he can become a good short-term option.

[lukekarts]

A big and a lead guard would have to be the targets, based on the fact that we still lack interior D/rebounding, and Wade will be 34. I'm sure he'll come back, but in a bit-part role. Equally, I'd not be surprised to see Deng return, at that point he may be an 11/5 player offering good D still.

I'll completely ignore Restricted FA's (no way, barring any breakdown in relationships, and of them are available. Even then, they likely stay another year on the Qualifying Offer...).

I'll also completely ignore the Elite (the Durant's) as I don't believe we can pull that off twice.

Lead guard types:

Mike Conley (29) - the only attractive name in the point guard pack. He'd be a good Miami type player, works hard defensively, can score and facilitate reasonably well, may not command max money.


Capable wings:

DeMar DeRozan (27) ETO - if he continues to develop he'll opt out. He's a fringe All Star but would be a good addition if we got the right piece elsewhere.

Nic Batum (28) - solid 13/5/4 type guy. Inconsistent but can shoot. He'd be a solid complimentary piece though not someone I'd want us to depend on.

Chandler Parsons (28) - probably will have inflated salary expectations but again could be a nice 3rd option type

Power forwards (let's lump Bosh at C):

Ryan Anderson (28) - best shooter at the position, would be an interesting player to add for sure.

Centers:

Joakim Noah (31), Al Horford (30), Dwight Howard (31) - time will tell as to how valuable these guys will be; IMO the risks could outweigh the rewards, given they don't offer the offensive edge we need.


Semi-realistic 'what good looks like in 2016':

Shabazz Napier / Mario Chalmers
DeMar DeRozan / Dwyane Wade (34...)
Luol Deng (31) / James Ennis
Chris Bosh (32) / Josh McRoberts
Noah/Horford (31/30) / Hamilton

It doesn't really excite me that much. Personally, I'd love for Riley to find a way to snatch Marc Gasol in 2015 but I'm not sure how that could happen...

[Dupas]

Marc gasol is the best fit out there for us..hes really fond of NY for what i see but as miami have alot of hispanic community maybe that can be a ace on our sleeves..gasol in 2015 and a guard for replacing wade in 2016 is the best scenario. I dont see durant coming and those RFA are impossible to snatch.

[DefenseWins]

is it safe to assume that in 2016 we will 100% be going after a center? Only reason i say that is because we gave bosh a 5 year vs a 2 year

despite Howard's age if he opts out, which I think he will cause he would get more money for sure AND if Rockets keep getting knocked out in the 1st round, he will look at his options

Howard and Noah are the only guys who are unrestricted. Noah though is so damn injury prone. I mean he had a good year last year health wise, but before than man it was bad. He is already having knee issues this year too, had surgery.

Howard for the most part has been healthier.

With that said only real options are Howard and Noah. Drummond and Davis are RFA, which makes it impossible for us to get them. Drummond seems more likely than Davis tho.

[No-Man]

Marc Gasol is going to NY next summer.

In 2016 I think you have a big chance at Horford but thats about it.

[LoveMyHeat]

^Good post, thanks for the insight.

[dr3am]

^Good post, thanks for the insight.

green font right?

[RexBoyWonder]

**** 2016, If Deng opts out we need to go all in next year. Might need to move Bird too, but guys like M.Gasol, Lopez Brothers, Dragic, Milsap, Greg Monroe - might make us a real contender next year if the rooks step us and we click.

[DayofMourning]

Just go after Eddie Jones, Brian Grant and Anthony Mason...add them to the lineup with Timmy and Zo and we will kill it!

Oh wait...


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Daggers to my heart...

[DayofMourning]

**** 2016, If Deng opts out we need to go all in next year. Might need to move Bird too, but guys like M.Gasol, Lopez Brothers, Dragic, Milsap, Greg Monroe - might make us a real contender next year if the rooks step us and we click.

I'm not a huge fan, but Gasol offers quality low post defense, passing, and low ego. He'd be a great addition to the post and would afford this team a lot more leeway with their game plans.

Bringing him to Miami also gets him closer to a Spanish speaking community;)

[Maroko]

Courtesy of Kaioken, he listed all the FA in 2015

PG's:
Dragic
Rondo
Jackson
Lin

Wings:
Ellis
Afflalo
Matthews
Leonard
Gay
Harris
Eric Gordon(if he opts out)
Jimmy Butler

Bigs:
Aldridge
Monroe
Gasol
Brook Lopez (if he opts out)
Al Jefferson
Millsap
Amir Johnson
Asik
Kanter
DeAndre Jordan
Hibbert
Thaddeus Young (if he opts out)

Source : viewtopic.php?p=41434381#p41434381

i was wondering if i was FA, i would only sign for a year and wait for 2016 to have a bigger contract with that new TV's contract. If you sign for a long term contract no matter what you will lose money comparing to a player of your "level".

I dont know how much cap space we will have in 2015 (we have several players with a player option) but we might have a chance to land a good player after all if someone prefers to sign for a year contract and sign a bigger one later with us