Hollinger's Playoff Odds

[crazyeights]

Hey guys,

So the news is finally in.

For the uninitiated John Hollinger is current Grizzly's VP of Bball Ops and former ESPN analytics guru:

Hollinger's NBA Playoff Odds are based on the Hollinger Power Rankings, designed by John Hollinger.

The Hollinger Power Rankings are a measure of each team's performance in the season so far.
Based on those rankings, each day the computer plays out the remainder of the season 5,000 times to see the potential range of projected outcomes. The results reveal the most likely win-loss record for each team -- and what the odds are for each team to make the NBA playoffs, win the NBA title, win the lottery, and so on.

For more on how the system works and what it means, see Hollinger's explanation.

Hollinger's NBA Playoff Odds are updated automatically each night.

Bear in mind the year Bynum came out and was beasting--when Kobe had just demanded a trade that summer--and everyone was counting us out:

Hollinger's rankings had us up there all season long. Then we got Pau and the rest was history.



Here are the projections for our Lakers:

Record: 31-51
Best record: 47-35
Worst record: 14-68

Playoff odds: 0.4%
Lottery odds (#1 pick): 4.7%


So as it stands today we have an 11.75 better chance at getting the number 1 pick in the draft lottery than we do at merely making the playoffs.

And for good measure our odds of making the finals and winning it all are both 0.0%.





As for the rest of the league:

He's got Golden State leading the west and Houston 8th. Currently OKC is out of the playoffs, but his computers probably don't realize Durant and Westbrook are about to get into form.

Then there's Toronto who has the highest odds at becoming champs at 39.0%. Although this takes into account their cushy schedule to start the season, so that's interesting.


Discuss, yo.

And keep an eye on things as reality develops:

[links]
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats

[dockingsched]

31 win prediction kinda validates the belief that they're not as has as the record indicates mostly due to the tough schedule they played early on.

[EArl]

30-35 at worst predictor right here.

[Slava]

That kind of sits right in the same range as Kevin Pelton's and Vegas predictions before the season started.

[crazyeights]

If Nick didn't return somewhat early we may well have been completely eliminated from the playoffs already. A curse and a blessing.

[Dr Aki]

[hermes]

Playoff odds: 0.4%

i like those odds

[ChokeFasncists]

Get it done!