L.Williams End of Quarter Isolation Stats Through 42 Games (Updated pg.5)

[changes]

The annoying part is that he takes the same lazy 3 all the time. Mixing up his offensive repertoire in these scenarios won't hinder his ability to run down the clock. Undisciplined plays, imo.

[Natural11]

I don't have much of a problem with Lou taking the shot, but it has come very predictable. That 32 shot / 32 point statistic will dip even further against smart teams, or in the play-offs, as teams predict exactly what is coming.

[Rapcity_11]

Lou needs to go a bit earlier. You want to give your team a chance for tip-ins or quick putbacks (without allowing enough time for the other team to go the other way). Shooting right at the buzzer isn't optimal.

Also, thanks OP.

[kirkwood]

What is the league wide percentage?


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[deeps6x]

Let me start by saying that I am in favor of Lou or Kyle taking an end of quarter shot with less than 3 seconds left. If they miss, that is enough time for a possible rebound/made shot. If the other team gets the ball, any shot they get off will be a low percentage panic shot.

When I read the Op's one point per shot stat, I was thinking that is pretty darn good considering that the other team knows you are about to drive or shoot. I would also bet the league average is around 0.8 points per shot.

Then I was thinking that the only shots that we should be discussing here are ones that are taken in the last 5 seconds. Any others are giving the opposing team a semi-decent chance of getting off a good shot. So I started looking at the stats presented and started with the game that got the most attention, the Bucks game, where Lou tallied 9 points on his first three end of quarter possessions. This is what I'm looking at in your post:

Cleveland Game - 2014/11/22

1st quarter - Missed 2 (10.3 seconds)
2nd quarter - Made 3 (17.5 seconds)
3rd quarter - Missed 3 (<0 seconds left)

Shots Taken: 3. Points: 3
Less than 14 seconds (2). More than 14 seconds (1)

Milwaukee Game - 2014/11/21
1st quarter - Made 3 (23.9 seconds)
2nd quarter - Made 3 (23.4 seconds)
3rd quarter - Made 3 free throws (30.7 seconds)


I was trying to figure out why you were saying 23.9 seconds, 23.4 seconds and 30.7 seconds. I looked up the stats myself and saw the first two were made 3s with zero seconds left on the clock, and the free throws at the end of the third were made with 11 seconds left. SO... you seem to be quoting some screwy 'how much of the 24 second clock was used up before he shot' kind of thing. Weird, but ok.

But then I looked at the Cavs game, end of that first quarter, Lou had a made a converted and1 with 34 seconds left. Where the heck are you getting a miss with 10.3 seconds (left or used up ?!?) and zero points?
End of the second quarter, Lou makes a 3 with zero seconds left on the clock. You are showing a made 3 with 17.5 seconds (left or used up ?!?).
End of the third quarter, Lou misses a 68 FOOT Hail Mary 3 point jumper with no time left on the clock. Just toss this one out, as it isn't Lou running out the clock at the top of the key for 20 seconds. This shot btw, is a shot that more players should be willing to take - but refuse to because it will hurt their precious scoring averages. Fcuk that, take the damn shot like Lou did and try to help your team out. Any player who gets a chance to take a last second 68 foot shot and doesn't take it should be bitch slapped by Casey in the intermission - in my humble opinion.

Long story short, I wanted to use your stats to see how many points Lou was scoring on shots taken in the last 5 seconds of a quarter, but your stats seem to be too flawed, and I don't want to bother looking up any more.

Maybe someone else will make the effort.

I would bet that Lou is making more than one point per shot in those 'last 5 second' shots.

Even better would be if someone would add Kyle's last 5 second results as well for comparison.

[JWiLL02]

I don't mind Lou with the ball, but he shouldn't always be the one to take the shot.

Ross was absolutely on fire Tuesday against the Kings, came up to get the ball and got looked off. I'll take Ross jacking a 3 over anyone else on this roster.

In fact, we should be looking to Ross more for these, period. He's as good as anyone on this team at using his size up dribble to create space for a J.

Using Ross would typically be a failure. Once the clock hits five seconds the defender would ramp up the pressure knowing that Ross has terrible handles and would not be able to get the shot as cleanly as he wants.

Have you been watching the same games I have? Ross doesn't have a "terrible handle", far from it. His main issue re: his handle seems to be comfort level. When he plays confident it's quick and effective.

He lacks moves/instincts when it comes to beating secondary defenders, which is why he typically pulls up or uses the floater, but his handle in one on one situations isn't bad at all.

[Northface82]

So in other words, Lou is a GOAT....Amirite?

[Randle McMurphy]

Yeah, Lou made a few buzzer beater shots in a show and now we're apparently going to pay for it with inefficient hero ball at the end of quarters all season. Might be time for Casey to wake up to this.

[Mad Balla 15]

Cleveland Game - 2014/11/22

1st quarter - Missed 2 (10.3 seconds)
2nd quarter - Made 3 (17.5 seconds)
3rd quarter - Missed 3 (<0 seconds left)

Shots Taken: 3. Points: 3
Less than 14 seconds (2). More than 14 seconds (1)

Milwaukee Game - 2014/11/21
1st quarter - Made 3 (23.9 seconds)
2nd quarter - Made 3 (23.4 seconds)
3rd quarter - Made 3 free throws (30.7 seconds)


I was trying to figure out why you were saying 23.9 seconds, 23.4 seconds and 30.7 seconds. I looked up the stats myself and saw the first two were made 3s with zero seconds left on the clock, and the free throws at the end of the third were made with 11 seconds left. SO... you seem to be quoting some screwy 'how much of the 24 second clock was used up before he shot' kind of thing. Weird, but ok.

But then I looked at the Cavs game, end of that first quarter, Lou had a made a converted and1 with 34 seconds left. Where the heck are you getting a miss with 10.3 seconds (left or used up ?!?) and zero points?
End of the second quarter, Lou makes a 3 with zero seconds left on the clock. You are showing a made 3 with 17.5 seconds (left or used up ?!?).
End of the third quarter, Lou misses a 68 FOOT Hail Mary 3 point jumper with no time left on the clock. Just toss this one out, as it isn't Lou running out the clock at the top of the key for 20 seconds. This shot btw, is a shot that more players should be willing to take - but refuse to because it will hurt their precious scoring averages. Fcuk that, take the damn shot like Lou did and try to help your team out. Any player who gets a chance to take a last second 68 foot shot and doesn't take it should be bitch slapped by Casey in the intermission - in my humble opinion.

Long story short, I wanted to use your stats to see how many points Lou was scoring on shots taken in the last 5 seconds of a quarter, but your stats seem to be too flawed, and I don't want to bother looking up any more.

Maybe someone else will make the effort.

I'm not sure where you're looking but going by the play-by-play for the Bucks game it shows:
1)1st quarter: 00:23.9 Hayes Rebound (Off:1 Def:1)
00:00.0
[TOR 37-27] Williams 3pt Shot: Made (5 PTS)
-So we got the ball back with 23.9 seconds hence (23.9 seconds beside 1st quarter)

2)2nd quarter: 00:23.4 Williams Rebound (Off:0 Def:1)
00:00.0
[TOR 71-45] Williams 3pt Shot: Made (16 PTS)
-So we got the ball back with 23.4 seconds hence (23.4 seconds beside 2nd quarter)

3)3rd Quarter: 00:30.7 DeRozan Rebound (Off:0 Def:5)
Wolters Foul: Shooting (3 PF) (3 FTA) 00:11.6
00:11.6
[TOR 99-56] Williams Free Throw 1 of 3 (17 PTS)
00:11.6
[TOR 100-56] Williams Free Throw 2 of 3 (18 PTS)
00:11.6
[TOR 101-56] Williams Free Throw 3 of 3 (19 PTS)
-So we got the back back with 30.7 seconds hence (30.7 seconds beside 3rd quarter)

I'm not going to continue for the Cavs game as I think you got the point by now. Also as I outlined "For popular demand I have added the amount of time left on the clock for each possession when the Raptors got the ball back." So the seconds in brackets are how much time was left when the Raptors got the ball back whether it be from a made basket/turnover/rebound. So yeah, my stats aren't flawed they're correct.

[team edward]

I think the real question is should we take two Lou W shots on a two for one, or one Lowry shot running down the clock but leaving a shot for the pther side?

[RedX]

I remember that a lot of his misses were almost in. I feel completely comfortable w Lou taking the last shot, if it's a shot. If we're looking to drive or go into traffic than Lowry is a must.

[Hue Durant]

why does the time on the clock matter?

why can't this clown coach run an offensive play?

[peralta]

for a long time this board is crying for the Raps to have someone of a closer...the Jamal Crawford type can heat up quick type of guy...i think Lou has done a fantastic job off the bench for the Raptors, we as fans are never happy even when things are going good so far. Now try that same stat research with the other players we have on the roster..and tell me who'd you rather have shoot at the end of quarters.

[J-Roc]

That's interesting, to look at Lou's shots as a negative. It seems to be more than just a made shot, though. When he makes them, there's a momentum shift.

That said, it's like Casey has quit on drawing up any real plays, like last year Game 7. Is this our plan, just give the ball to Lou?

[plainballing]

If we ends up with down 1, last possession of game 7 like last year, I think Casey will go with Lou iso-shot play over Lowry drive.

[G-UNIT]

They should mix it up a bit. I'm sure the advance scouting report says "Lou will shoot all end of quarter shots, ignore the other 4 guys on the floor".

if they leave the other guys on the floor, its an open 3 for us...

[Harold_and_Kumar]

Like any statistic, it only has meaning when compared to other teams or our year-after-year progress. Otherwise, there's not much to go by.

(this isn't to disparage the work you've put in, but it's hard to draw meaningful conclusions)

[Rapcity_11]

why does the time on the clock matter?

Seriously?

why can't this clown coach run an offensive play?

#1 offense in the league........

[Kohanz]

We don't know that 1pps is inefficient in this context. Yes, it's not the most efficient compared to other players who are taking their shots throughout the game, in the flow of the offense, and choosing the quality of their shots, but the end of quarters is a totally different situation. He has the ball in his hands, the defender knows he's going to shoot it and roughly when he has to shoot it. Under those circumstances, I would estimate that 1pps is actually a very good efficiency that wouldn't be matched by many players in the league. It's equivalent to taking only two-point shots in that context and shooting 50%. I don't know what more you guys want...

[IMAN5]

I was at the game live when this happened:

Milwaukee Game - 2014/11/21
1st quarter - Made 3 (23.9 seconds)
2nd quarter - Made 3 (23.4 seconds)
3rd quarter - Made 3 free throws (30.7 seconds)

for that, he can do whatever he wants.