Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds)

JTrain · Post #1 » by **JTrain** » Thu Nov 27, 2014 6:50 pm

Through 2/4

Through 1/30

Through 1/25

Through 1/19

Through 1/14

Through 1/9

Through 1/4

Through 12/27

Through 12/15

Through 12/6

11/27

I KNOW IT'S TOO EARLY! :lol:

JTrain · Post #2 » by **JTrain** » Thu Nov 27, 2014 6:56 pm

Interesting that 46 wins is projected to be the West cutoff, and Houston is there despite currently being 12-3.

Obviously the simulations aren't taking into account Westbrook and Durant returning, so they will be right there in the thick of things.

Revived · Post #3 » by **Revived** » Thu Nov 27, 2014 8:39 pm

This thread jinxed us last year! Jk lol.

But seriously though I don't know which team from that top 8 will drop, it looks just like last year but the West got even better.

Even if SAC drops, OKC will probably replace them up there.

thamadkant · Post #4 » by **thamadkant** » Thu Nov 27, 2014 8:49 pm

JTrain wrote:Interesting that 46 wins is projected to be the West cutoff, and Houston is there despite currently being 12-3.

Obviously the simulations aren't taking into account Westbrook and Durant returning, so they will be right there in the thick of things.

I think they use that "schedule difficulty" coefficient and its predicting that Rockets will have a tougher schedule down the line.

kennydorglas · Post #5 » by **kennydorglas** » Thu Nov 27, 2014 9:05 pm

Lakers winning 30 games would be a bless for us.

JTrain · Post #6 » by **JTrain** » Thu Nov 27, 2014 10:05 pm

It'll be interesting to see how long OKC takes to get on track once those two return. I don't really think Houston will be down there. It seems more likely that PHX, SAC and OKC end up battling for 8th.

Dallas is the wild card. They look good so far but they're old... probably the oldest team besides the Spurs. They may not hold up well later in the season.

JDLAW · Post #7 » by **JDLAW** » Fri Nov 28, 2014 11:56 pm

Hollinger's Just Odd. More ESPN garbage.

Wannabe MEP · Post #8 » by **Wannabe MEP** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 12:59 am

JDLAW wrote:Hollinger's Just Odd. More ESPN garbage.

It's just a formula, yo. Takes into account point differential and SOS, rather than just pure standings. No big deal.

Blackification · Post #9 » by **Blackification** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:57 pm

Has anyone seen our December schedule? This is going to be a long month with a lot of losses

JTrain · Post #10 » by **JTrain** » Sun Dec 7, 2014 9:40 pm

Need about 10 games with Durant and Westbrook in and then we'll have a good idea of if they have a good chance.

Sunlight · Post #11 » by **Sunlight** » Sun Dec 7, 2014 11:34 pm

Something is wrong witk OKC. They arent 100% healthy, but should play better. Maybe miss Thabos defensive preesens like Suns miss when Tucker out.

GreenRiddler · Post #12 » by **GreenRiddler** » Mon Dec 8, 2014 5:55 am

All I know is they won and you guys lost, you need to help a brotha out and make sure them Thunder don't catch you in April like the Grizz and Mavs. :pray:

JTrain · Post #13 » by **JTrain** » Mon Dec 8, 2014 6:45 pm

When I started the thread last season on 1/11, Hollinger projected us to finish 48-34.

Post #14 » by **bwgood77** » Mon Dec 8, 2014 6:50 pm

Since these formulas don't account for injuries, OKC's odds are obviously far too low, and they should probably be 50-60%, which would shave odds for everyone else, and probably most significantly, us.

JTrain · Post #15 » by **JTrain** » Mon Dec 8, 2014 7:16 pm

bwgood77 wrote:His formula though doesn't account for injuries, so a team like Memphis will probably be right there too when it's all said and done.

bwgood77 wrote:Since these formulas don't account for injuries, OKC's odds are obviously far too low, and they should probably be 50-60%, which would shave odds for everyone else, and probably most significantly, us.

YES, WE KNOW!

No, I'm with you. OKC will be right there in the mix. It depends how long it takes those two to really get back to a high level.

Post #16 » by **bwgood77** » Mon Dec 8, 2014 7:27 pm

JTrain wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:His formula though doesn't account for injuries, so a team like Memphis will probably be right there too when it's all said and done.

bwgood77 wrote:Since these formulas don't account for injuries, OKC's odds are obviously far too low, and they should probably be 50-60%, which would shave odds for everyone else, and probably most significantly, us.

YES, WE KNOW!

No, I'm with you. OKC will be right there in the mix. It depends how long it takes those two to really get back to a high level.

Funny I said the exact same thing last year with Memphis. Personally I'd love it if us AND OKC made it and someone else fell out for whatever reason.

Tahleron · Post #17 » by **Tahleron** » Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:49 pm

Sunlight wrote:Something is wrong witk OKC. They arent 100% healthy, but should play better. Maybe miss Thabos defensive preesens like Suns miss when Tucker out.

Durant's injury took him out of the preseason as well as the first month, he needs a week or two to acclimatize and get into match shape.

Post #18 » by **bwgood77** » Sun Dec 14, 2014 8:25 pm

It's pretty crazy that if OKC beats us tonight they will be only a half game behind.

Post #19 » by **lilfishi22** » Sun Dec 14, 2014 11:47 pm

bwgood77 wrote:It's pretty crazy that if OKC beats us tonight they will be only a half game behind.

There's also a pretty wide gap between us currently in 8th place and 7th place Mavs. We're 4.5 games behind them at the moment.

Tahleron · Post #20 » by **Tahleron** » Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:15 am

Barring some catastrophic injury, same 8 as last year (different order though) may as well be 100%