Big Al's Paint: The Al Jefferson Thread

[JDR720]

I dont care that Al is a horrid defender, what irritates me is he doesn't even try to defend. I can deal with the bad defense a lot better if he cared. Cliff needs to bench him, if he will bench others because of effort level he should bench Al, he isn't above the law.

[fatlever]

hopefully at some point in the near future clifford will realize that al is not a 2-way player that can be counted on for 40 minutes a night and definitely not a player who should see the floor on key defensive possessions ESPECIALLY when you are up 3pts at the end of a game and the other team needs a 3 to tie.

its clear clifford doesnt trust biz enough to give him more than 10-15 minutes and never in the 4th. its also clear that max isnt the answer. for these reasons i wish cho would find us another center, who could play at least respectable defense, to give clifford another option at the end of games.

even some all-time great centers like shaq were subbed out at the end of games in various situations.

clifford's blind loyalty to jefferson is one of the most confusing aspects of his coaching.

[BigSlam]

its clear clifford doesnt trust biz enough to give him more than 10-15 minutes and never in the 4th. its also clear that max isnt the answer. for these reasons i wish cho would find us another center, who could play at least respectable defense, to give clifford another option at the end of games. .

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/23 ... Interested

[fatlever]

two questions

1) can anyone come up with a team that needs jefferson, could fit him in their lineup and improve, and have anything we would want in return?

2) can anyone think of a team that would actually consider signing jefferson to a big contract this summer?

i dont believe there is a team that fits either scenario. there might be a few times willing to give up some crap for jefferson only to give him a tryout as a scoring big off the bench. i dont think there is a single playoff level team that would have any interest in trading for jefferson to make him a starter.

there will not be a realistic free agent market for jefferson this summer. i dont think he will opt out, unless the hornets tell him they will resign him for more years at similar money. name one team that you think would sign jefferson for 13 mil or more next year?

jefferson really should consider opting out and trying to take a pay cut to join a playoff team where he would be the 1st big off the bench. that is the perfect role for him. he's been paid generously in his career. at what point does he want to compete in the playoffs? coming off the bench is his only realistic option at playoff success.

[Liver_Pooty]

two questions

1) can anyone come up with a team that needs jefferson, could fit him in their lineup and improve, and have anything we would want in return?

2) can anyone think of a team that would actually consider signing jefferson to a big contract this summer?

i dont believe there is a team that fits either scenario. there might be a few times willing to give up some crap for jefferson only to give him a tryout as a scoring big off the bench. i dont think there is a single playoff level team that would have any interest in trading for jefferson to make him a starter.

there will not be a realistic free agent market for jefferson this summer. i dont think he will opt out, unless the hornets tell him they will resign him for more years at similar money. name one team that you think would sign jefferson for 13 mil or more next year?

jefferson really should consider opting out and trying to take a pay cut to join a playoff team where he would be the 1st big off the bench. that is the perfect role for him. he's been paid generously in his career. at what point does he want to compete in the playoffs? coming off the bench is his only realistic option at playoff success.

Third question: Can any team take up Walkers 48 million dollar deal?

[Eoghan]

Fat, is it fair to just simplify your questions into one question, which GMs are dumber than Cho?

[BigSlam]

two questions

1) can anyone come up with a team that needs jefferson, could fit him in their lineup and improve, and have anything we would want in return?

2) can anyone think of a team that would actually consider signing jefferson to a big contract this summer?

i dont believe there is a team that fits either scenario. there might be a few times willing to give up some crap for jefferson only to give him a tryout as a scoring big off the bench. i dont think there is a single playoff level team that would have any interest in trading for jefferson to make him a starter.

there will not be a realistic free agent market for jefferson this summer. i dont think he will opt out, unless the hornets tell him they will resign him for more years at similar money. name one team that you think would sign jefferson for 13 mil or more next year?

jefferson really should consider opting out and trying to take a pay cut to join a playoff team where he would be the 1st big off the bench. that is the perfect role for him. he's been paid generously in his career. at what point does he want to compete in the playoffs? coming off the bench is his only realistic option at playoff success.

OKC obviously stands out.

I think Miami would like him.

Cleveland as well.

[MasterIchiro]

Fat, is it fair to just simplify your questions into one question, which GMs are dumber than Cho?

[Liver_Pooty]

Fat, is it fair to just simplify your questions into one question, which GMs are dumber than Cho?

Billy King.

[JDR720]

two questions

1) can anyone come up with a team that needs jefferson, could fit him in their lineup and improve, and have anything we would want in return?

2) can anyone think of a team that would actually consider signing jefferson to a big contract this summer?

i dont believe there is a team that fits either scenario. there might be a few times willing to give up some crap for jefferson only to give him a tryout as a scoring big off the bench. i dont think there is a single playoff level team that would have any interest in trading for jefferson to make him a starter.

there will not be a realistic free agent market for jefferson this summer. i dont think he will opt out, unless the hornets tell him they will resign him for more years at similar money. name one team that you think would sign jefferson for 13 mil or more next year?

jefferson really should consider opting out and trying to take a pay cut to join a playoff team where he would be the 1st big off the bench. that is the perfect role for him. he's been paid generously in his career. at what point does he want to compete in the playoffs? coming off the bench is his only realistic option at playoff success.

The Bucks

[fatlever]

OKC obviously stands out.

I think Miami would like him.

Cleveland as well.

OKC could certainly use some scoring on their bench unit. Jefferson is an upgrade over Perkins and Ibaka can cover his defense when they play together. However, I can't see him starting or playing heavy minutes. There isn't enough offense to go around for Durant, Westbrook and Jefferson. Brooks is still a defense first coach, so I would expect Adams to remain the starter, splitting minutes with Jefferson. Perhaps they would bite on a trade that sent us Perkins and Lamb in return. Then we move Lance and Hendo in follow-up trades that bring back at least one big.

Miami plays a very aggressive trapping defense with their bigs. They would have to change their entire defensive philosophy to incorporate Jefferson into their lineup. But, Bosh and Jefferson actually fit fairly well together, so it would be possible. They certainly have enough shooters to put around Al. The problem with Miami is they have nothing to trade back to us in return that would make sense for us. I guess we could get McRoberts back along with Chalmers. Not ideal trade partners.

I don't see Cleveland needed Jefferson at all. They need Biyombo much more than they need Jefferson. The last thing that offense needs is more mouths to feed and less defense.

[BigSlam]

OKC obviously stands out.

I think Miami would like him.

Cleveland as well.

OKC could certainly use some scoring on their bench unit. Jefferson is an upgrade over Perkins and Ibaka can cover his defense when they play together. However, I can't see him starting or playing heavy minutes. There isn't enough offense to go around for Durant, Westbrook and Jefferson. Brooks is still a defense first coach, so I would expect Adams to remain the starter, splitting minutes with Jefferson. Perhaps they would bite on a trade that sent us Perkins and Lamb in return. Then we move Lance and Hendo in follow-up trades that bring back at least one big.

Miami plays a very aggressive trapping defense with their bigs. They would have to change their entire defensive philosophy to incorporate Jefferson into their lineup. But, Bosh and Jefferson actually fit fairly well together, so it would be possible. They certainly have enough shooters to put around Al. The problem with Miami is they have nothing to trade back to us in return that would make sense for us. I guess we could get McRoberts back along with Chalmers. Not ideal trade partners.

I don't see Cleveland needed Jefferson at all. They need Biyombo much more than they need Jefferson. The last thing that offense needs is more mouths to feed and less defense.

I think Al would 100% start for OKC - and be wonderful as a third option for them and truly balance out their roster.

Westbrook - Roberson - Durant - Ibaka - Jefferson
Jackson - Morrow - Jones III - Collison - Adams

That's a killer rotation IMO and enough to finally get them the Championship - which they might want to do before Durant possibly blots in FA.

Miami would likely have to be a three team trade brining us something for the 3rd team, but like you said a pairing of Bosh and Al would be pretty nice with Andersen subbing in for one or the other at various stages of games.

Cleveland is a team full of outside shooting with no post presence. I think they are going to get found out very quickly. I think James would like having someone he could dump the ball down to every now and then.

[UNCNYC]

I think Al is nothing more than a BACK-UP center. Only way he should start is if he has a powerforward who can defend well out there with him.

[-Ian-]

I think Al is nothing more than a BACK-UP center. Only way he should start is if he has a powerforward who can defend well out there with him.

Bismack can be that in some stretches, but Clifford won't even try it.

[TheKingofSting]

Such a change, didn't Silas say Biz was a PF?

[Liver_Pooty]

Biyombo is not a PF

[catch20two]

Such a change, didn't Silas say Biz was a PF?

I think Silas and Dunlap had Biz as a PF initially.

[HornetJail]

Such a change, didn't Silas say Biz was a PF?

I think Silas and Dunlap had Biz as a PF initially.

Mullens was the "center", but for all intents and purposes, Biz was the center.

[MasterIchiro]

Last season BrotherDave insisted the presence of Al Jefferson merely masked the very serious fault lines underlying this team. He basically said the foundation is flawed.

Now that Al is really out of shape and can't play 4 quarters. Now that our blueprint has become exposed.

We see the issues never addressed by the front office.

We are being thrust into rebuild mode by the reality our roster is mostly role players.

I think it's a positive development.

It happened a year too soon but better than a year too late.

They shouldn't and won't commit a long term deal to Al Jefferson imo

[MasterIchiro]

The Charlotte Hornets find themselves at a crossroads, fresh off an unlikely playoff appearance highly attributable to Al Jefferson, plummeting straight back down to the basement. Is it also largely Al to blame and should they unload him before he opts out or is the fall more due to the flaws in his teammates? Or should the front office hit up the market for a shooter(s) to complement his inside game and give Clifford more weapons to close out 4th quarters, bolstering the roster as if Al is part of a blueprint that involves a plan to sign him to a long-term extension when he opts out?

The one consistency of the Jefferson-led offense is it has never been a competitive offense and this year ranks among the bottom of the league in many categories. From the eye test it looks seriously devoid of ball movement and creativity, on top of the lack of perimeter threats.

Stagnation.

On the one hand Al is a force who commands double teams, displaying the ability in some match ups to score at will. But Al doesn't consistently make the right pass out of the double team to find the open player in the right spot for a high percentage shot and he doesn't rebound on the offensive boards to provide shooters with do-overs. Opposing defenses successfully scheme against Al Jefferson as the go-to scorer down the stretch.

Predictable.

Making matters worse, there are moments when he looks terribly out of shape and lost on defense. Cho's signing of Marv Williams has only compounded the weak interior defense and exposed Jefferson's liabilities.

The Toronto Raptors once built an offense around one ball-dominant player, volume shooter (and ball hog) Rudy Gay. The core of the Raptors team featured similar young talent compared to this Hornets squad - athletic, raw, high energy players who seemed to defer and cater to Rudy Gay as they were still growing and developing while Toronto was looking to compete for playoff birth. When Toronto dealt Gay it was like a renaissance for their young core as Derozan and others made the best of more touches and stepped up to fill the void and shape an offense that became more versatile and thus more difficult to scheme against for opposing coaches.

Toronto finds itself without Rudy Gay atop the Eastern Conference with the best teams around.

Addition by subtraction?

This is just one case study and I'm generalizing but what if we stumble upon another helpful piece of experimental data that supports The Rudy Gay Theory?

Take a look at this piece about the Warriors and David Lee and judge for yourself. I couldn't help but notice the parallels between David Lee and Al Jefferson. For a fun exercise you might try substituting Al Jefferson every place you see David Lee starting with paragraph 3:

When Lee went down in Game 1 of their first-round series against the Denver Nuggets in 2013, everyone thought the Warriors were finished. They had lost their only All-Star! Instead, they went nova, blitzing a 57-win team in six games and giving the San Antonio Spurs everything they could handle in the second round.

The same exact thing is playing out again. With Draymond Green playing as a small-ball 4, the Warriors have four three-point shooters on the floor at all times. They space the floor really well, they have speed and athleticism at almost every position and Andrew Bogut towering over everything in the middle. A 4-out team with Bogut as the only big man and Steph Curry and Klay Thompson running the show from the perimeter is going to be hard to beat.

Lee gets his numbers - 18 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assists on 53% shooting last season - but he does it in a way that destroys everyone else’s flow. Lee doesn’t play enough defense to be the only big man on the floor, which means Golden State can’t play 4-out with him in the game. When the Warriors have two big men on the floor, they become a much more conventional team which has to slow the ball and play inside-out in order to maximize Lee’s skill-set.

Lee is most effective as the second biggest man on the floor while playing in an era where many of the best teams only play one big man at a time. There are still teams like the Memphis Grizzlies that can succeed with two big men, but they play to their strengths - pounding the ball inside, controlling tempo and playing lock-down defense in the half-court. The fundamental problem with playing Lee is that he gives you all the spacing problems of a two-in team without any of the benefits, as he struggles to score over bigger post defenders like Zach Randolph and he has even more trouble stopping them on defense.

Lee’s exit is like unclogging a drain. All of a sudden, when Golden State is on offense, eight of the ten players on the floor are spread out around the three-point line. All that spacing makes it almost impossible to stick with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, since they can find the open man when the defense sends help. Golden State is playing the type of pure 4-out basketball that we haven’t seen in the Western Conference since the Seven Seconds or Less Suns...

There has been no team willing to take the spread pick-and-roll to its logical conclusion, not since Mike D’Antoni’s glorious revolution in Phoenix could never get past a 7’0 foot roadblock in San Antonio by the name of Tim Duncan. For the most part, teams in the West aren’t trying to play small. That’s why I assumed coming into the season that A) the Warriors would stick with Lee and B) it would ultimately doom their chances for winning the West.

Lee’s injury is really the best thing that could have happened to Kerr, since it took the tough but necessary decision out of his hands. There’s no way they can put him back in the starting line-up after the way they have started the season. In essence, the last three years were a holding action, where David Lee was fighting to hold onto his starting spot while a potentially great team was waiting to burst out at any moment. As soon as he got hurt or had to leave the line-up for any extended amount of time, this was going to happen. He may end up being useful to them as a 10-15 minute guy off the bench, but the days of him being a featured player in Golden State have come and gone.

Without Lee around to get in everyone’s way on offense and get lit up on defense, the Warriors have gotten off to the best start in the NBA, with a 21-3 record and a 16-game winning streak that ended in The Grindhouse on Tuesday. In terms of pure statistics, Golden State is as good a team as there is in the league. However, when you start playing the match-up game in the playoffs, it looks like their chances to win it all will come down to two questions.

http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/23590 ... Steve-Kerr

Could the Hornets, fresh off a rebrand of the Bobcats rebrand The Rudy Gay Theory, the Al Jefferson Theory?

What do the numbers show?

What does the eye test say?

Should MJ test the theory?