Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2)

[leswizards]

I think it's kind of feminine to place someone on an ignore list just because you don't agree with their arguments.

Are women inferior to men? You seem to be suggesting that in your comment. That would make you a male chauvinistic pig.

[Zonkerbl]

The only people I've ever put on ignore are people who post pages and pages of idiotic blabber.

I wouldn't put someone on ignore just because they're relentlessly optimistic. How sad is that?

[leswizards]

Exactly why you are on so many people's ignore list.

Don't know who placed me on their ignore list and I don't care It actually speaks volumes to that individuals maturity!

That is ironic. You post a photo essentially suggesting that people should ignore people with stupid arguments, but when people ignore your stupid arguments they lack in maturity.

[DCZards]

2014 was good -- Pierce and Humprhies. Not sure why Blair gets no time at all, but he's a solid player to have in a "break glass in case of emergency" role. Only bad move really was bringing back Seraphin, and that hasn't hurt them much. Yet.

I know it's blasphemy around here to say this---but I'm liking the role that Seraphin is carving out for himself this season. I know the stats might not shout "improvement" but there's an obvious and important chemistry that the Zards' second team is developing and I see KS as an important part of that.

And, as I've said before, Seraphin seems to be getting smarter about when to shoot and when to pass, and it's clear to me that his improved quickness both off his feet and up-and-down the court is having a positive impact on his performance/contribution.

[Zonkerbl]

Except for the occasional hook shot, KS has been pretty much a train wreck all season and Kevin's numbers back that up. Yikes. Would like to see them at least experiment with Blair.

[DCZards]

The only people I've ever put on ignore are people who post pages and pages of idiotic blabber.

I wouldn't put someone on ignore just because they're relentlessly optimistic. How sad is that?

I'm with you Zonk. I don't have anyone on "ignore." I like reading everyone's opinion...no matter how much I disagree or how crazy that opinion might be.

BTW, zonk, I sat 6-7 rows behind you in Sec. 119 at the Jazz game last Sunday. Recognized you from the photo you posted and that new Wall sweater you were rocking.

[Zonkerbl]

The only people I've ever put on ignore are people who post pages and pages of idiotic blabber.

I wouldn't put someone on ignore just because they're relentlessly optimistic. How sad is that?

I'm with you Zonk. I don't have anyone on "ignore." I like reading everyone's opinion...no matter how much I disagree or how crazy that opinion might be.

BTW, zonk, I sat 6-7 rows behind you in Sec. 119 at the Jazz game last Sunday. Recognized you from the photo you posted and that new Wall sweater you were rocking.

SUHWEET! Come say hi to me next time!

[leswizards]

It is too early to say, but DCZards may prove right on Seraphin. In the last seven games, Seraphin's ORtg has been excellent in 4 of those games, average in another, and awful in 2 games; his DRtg has been very good in 3 of those games, average in 2, and below average to awful in the other 2. Seraphin may have finally turned the corner.

[Nivek]

2014 was good -- Pierce and Humprhies. Not sure why Blair gets no time at all, but he's a solid player to have in a "break glass in case of emergency" role. Only bad move really was bringing back Seraphin, and that hasn't hurt them much. Yet.

I know it's blasphemy around here to say this---but I'm liking the role that Seraphin is carving out for himself this season. I know the stats might not shout "improvement" but there's an obvious and important chemistry that the Zards' second team is developing and I see KS as an important part of that.

And, as I've said before, Seraphin seems to be getting smarter about when to shoot and when to pass, and it's clear to me that his improved quickness both off his feet and up-and-down the court is having a positive impact on his performance/contribution.

If I get time later today, I want to look at his game log. His rating has gone up the past two updates I've done. I'm curious to see how he's been doing the past few weeks.

[Nivek]

The only people I've ever put on ignore are people who post pages and pages of idiotic blabber.

I wouldn't put someone on ignore just because they're relentlessly optimistic. How sad is that?

Yeah. I don't mind optimism. I mean, I don't have Rico on ignore.

[tontoz]

Last game certainly won't help Seraphin's ratings. He fouled out in only 17 minutes with 1 rebound.

[Kanyewest]

From what I'm picking up from people quoting folks on my ignore list, we seem to have a resurgence of the "The real problem was Abe Pollin" trope. Which is still bull.

For example, Abe told Grunfeld he wanted to win. Grunfeld went out traded the 5th pick for Randy Foye and Mike Miller. Grunfeld thought that was a winning strategy. It was, of course, a spectacular failure.

And, while Grunfeld had a good offseason with Leonsis in 2014, he had a terrible one with Leonsis the previous summer.

Grunfeld had good offseasons while working for Abe, and terrible ones. He's done the same with Leonsis.

I'm not sure how trading a mid first rounder for Gortat qualifies as a terrible offseason. Now trading first rounders for Bargnani- that would be terrible.

Maynor.

I could stop there, but...

Quick summary: their offseason needs were backup PG and frontcourt depth.

They had Ariza under contract, the third pick in the draft, and Webster as a free agent.

They used the third pick on Porter (who's a SF), traded two picks (one of which became PG Nate Wolters) to select Rice (SG/SF), used the full MLE to re-sign Webster (SG/SF), and then didn't trade Ariza. Not trading Ariza worked out. Ariza had the best season of his career, but ultimately departed for zero compensation. Virtually any combination of these moves would have been fine. All of them together -- considering the team's other needs -- was a misuse of resources.

Having used the draft to add players at a position of strength, Grunfeld signed Maynor to a two-year BAE contract on the first day of free agency. As training camp began, Grunfeld congratulated himself to Michael Lee saying (among other things) the team had upgraded the PG position and that Maynor "knows how to play." Yet, Maynor had already played 4 seasons in the NBA, and had been terrible. He's getting paid this season to not play in the NBA.

Having used the BAE and the MLE, Grunfeld had nothing but minimum salary contracts to attract frontcourt depth. He struck out with DeJuan Blair, who accepted an identical minimum salary offer from Dallas.

He managed to get Al Harrington, who was terrible last season.

The Gortat trade was a desperation move borne from Grunfeld's colossal misjudgment of Maynor's ability to play, and his misuse of player acquisition resources during the offseason. Had he used some of those resources to add depth behind his two 30+ year old big men, he may not have needed to trade for Gortat at all.

Now, it's worked out because Gortat's a good player. I'm happy to have him, and hope he'll be productive throughout his contract. But that trade isn't an example of good GM work. It's an example of getting a good result from a desperation move.

Nope -- 2013 was a TERRIBLE offseason by Grunfeld. He was able to salvage it later with a desperation trade for Gortat, by plucking Gooden off the garbage heap, and because Brian Shaw and Andre Miller couldn't stand each other.

2014 was good -- Pierce and Humprhies. Not sure why Blair gets no time at all, but he's a solid player to have in a "break glass in case of emergency" role. Only bad move really was bringing back Seraphin, and that hasn't hurt them much. Yet.

ter·ri·ble
ˈterəb(ə)l/
adjective
extremely or distressingly bad or serious.

Even if you want to call it below average (which would be an overstatement IMO) it would still not qualify as terrible.

- Otto Porter looks like decent value so far. He's not the bust that everyone was calling him last season.

- Martell Webster demise in 2012 has been exaggerated. A TS% of 58 is not far from his 2012-13 average. Still not a good move, but to qualify it as terrible would be too much for now. Even if he misses more games due to his injury, the Wizards can opt to waive his final salary which could be a viable trading chip.

- The Eric Maynor signing was terrible. Washington would eventually have to give up a 2nd rounder to offload this toxic asset (although maybe offloading the 2nd rounder had more to do with offloading Vesely and his salary). Still, I wouldn't define this one as being as catastrophic as some other signings given that it was only $4 million. JR Smith, Jarrett Jack, Josh Smith, Tyreke Evans, OJ Mayo, Carl Landry were worse given their length and total salary. And there are several others that were equally bad including Chauncey Billups, Earl Clark, Andrew Bynum, Randy Foye, etc.

- The Gortat is a trade I would not have done and I agree may show some systematic problems that could be long term. Still, Gortat does fit in with what Washington does. He's a borderline all star center in the East. While Gortat was an unrestricted free agent, he likely doesn't consider Washington and re-signs with Phoenix. Bottomline it is questionable if Washington even makes the playoffs without Gortat, which could have netted the Wizards another top 10 pi. Still of the teams that traded their first round picks that offseason, of those teams Washington got the most. Indiana (Green/Plumlee/1st for Scola), Brooklyn (1sts for Garnett Pierce and bad contracts), New York Knicks (1sts for Bargnani, losing guys that fit like Copeland and Novak).

- Even if the Wizards had signed DeJuan Blair, it looks like that him and Wittman have deeper issues going on that Wittman still plays Seraphin over him. Given the lack of confidence that Washington has with Blair now, they likely would have gone forward with the Gortat trade anyways. Same is true if the Wizards had taken Nerlen Noel/Alex Len or even Steven Adams.

I think EG should be replaced because he has had terrible offseasons and his drafting hasn't been good. But the 2013-14 offseason was average IMO especially considering other teams that year including Cleveland, NY Knicks, Indiana Pacers, Brooklyn Nets, Sacramento Kings, Utah Jazz, New Orleans Hornets, Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Milwaulkee Bucks did. Certainly this season isn't in line with the 2009 and 2011 terrible offseason that would get GMs fired especially since it led the Wizards from being a borderline playoff team to making to the 2nd round and likely a 50 win team this season.

EDIT: Also giving Wall a 5 year max deal. Some argued for a 4 year deal but it looks like the right move now- especially if Wall were to ever want to leave DC.

[leswizards]

If his strategy to make a bid for a big free agent in 2016 works out, he's a genius and we're all idiots.

I am quite certain that the vast majority of EG's harshest critics have been advocating for the Wizards to do exactly that. So, if EG actually pulls it off, why is he the genius, and his critics the idiots?

[Kanyewest]

If his strategy to make a bid for a big free agent in 2016 works out, he's a genius and we're all idiots.

I am quite certain that the vast majority of EG's harshest critics have been advocating for the Wizards to do exactly that. So, if EG actually pulls it off, why is he the genius, and his critics the idiots?

I agree with your general point. While there are a few posters who are critical of EG and think the Wizards have no chance at Durant, most of his critics like the idea.

[milellie111]

Exactly why you are on so many people's ignore list.

Don't know who placed me on their ignore list and I don't care It actually speaks volumes to that individuals maturity!

That is ironic. You post a photo essentially suggesting that people should ignore people with stupid arguments, but when people ignore your stupid arguments they lack in maturity.

What "stupid" arguments have I made? That Ernie Grunfeld should not be fired, has done a wonderful job of turning this team around, and management is moving in the right direction? That Wittman could be a candidate for coach of the year? The Grunfeld is a much better GM under Ted than Abe? I have a 2nd round playoff advancement last year and an 18-6 record this season to back up my assertions.

The stupid ones are those who highlight bad moves years ago that aren't even on the team anymore who say he should still be fired.

[Nivek]

Here's Seraphin's PPA for each game this season:

Code: Select all

Date                    Opp     MP      PPA
10/29/2014      @       MIA     7.7     -182
10/30/2014      @       ORL     1.9     -903
11/4/2014       @       NYK     22.1    166
11/5/2014               IND     13.9    -75
11/7/2014       @       TOR     18.1    58
11/8/2014       @       IND     19.5    126
11/12/2014              DET     16.7    -62
11/15/2014              ORL     16.1    -32
11/19/2014              DAL     10.6    -33
11/21/2014              CLE     23.4    75
11/22/2014      @       MIL     13.1    -26
11/25/2014              ATL     14.8    -11
11/26/2014      @       CLE     22.7    -15
11/29/2014              NOP     6.7     -26
12/1/2014               MIA     19.6    19
12/3/2014               LAL     14.1    13
12/5/2014               DEN     22.5    156
12/7/2014       @       BOS     10.2    171
12/8/2014               BOS     16.4    257
12/10/2014      @       ORL     12.1    74
12/12/2014              LAC     15.4    -56
12/14/2014              UTA     16.0    -54
12/16/2014              MIN     17.1    52


Three straight very good games from December 5-8, but bad since then. Here's a breakdown of his season so far:

Code: Select all

QUAL              COUNT     %
Avg+               5       22%
Replace            14      61%
Negative           12      52%


So, Seraphin's performance has been average or better in 5 of 23 games this season -- 22%. He's been replacement level or worse in 14 of 23 -- 61%. He's been a net negative (bad plays have outweighed the good) 12 of 23 -- 52%.

His December numbers are better -- two very good games and one great one. But, in the 9 games so far this month, there are still four games that rate below replacement level (two of which were net negatives), and a fifth that was just barely above replacement level (the most recent). Net for the month, a PPA of 70 in which 94% of his production came in just three games.

When I look at his total credits, 84% of his season production has been in December -- 79% in that single three-game stretch.

[leswizards]

What "stupid" arguments have I made? That Ernie Grunfeld should not be fired, has done a wonderful job of turning this team around, and management is moving in the right direction? That Wittman could be a candidate for coach of the year? The Grunfeld is a much better GM under Ted than Abe? I have a 2nd round playoff advancement last year and an 18-6 record this season to back up my assertions.

The stupid ones are those who highlight bad moves years ago that aren't even on the team anymore who say he should still be fired.

You were highly critical of all the people you just praised. Apparently, you believe people are only allowed to be critical of EG, Ted, and Wittman when you say it is acceptable to do so. That is a pretty stupid argument. Nearly every poster who is critical of EG, explains their reasons for doing so. You almost never acknowledge those reasons, and are dismissive of them with some flip comment like "those who highlight bad moves years ago that aren't even on the team anymore". That is a pretty stupid argument. You once started a thread accusing another poster of being a troll, and advocating that other posters should ignore that poster. That was a pretty stupid argument that would have gotten you permanently banned on quite a few boards. It was also incredibly immature. I could go on, but you will keep going on being an immature poster who wants to grief other posters who have valid reasons for hating the years of EG's mismanagement.

[Zonkerbl]

If his strategy to make a bid for a big free agent in 2016 works out, he's a genius and we're all idiots.

I am quite certain that the vast majority of EG's harshest critics have been advocating for the Wizards to do exactly that. So, if EG actually pulls it off, why is he the genius, and his critics the idiots?

Because EG's job is to win a championship and there's nothing more we can ask from him than to put a championship caliber roster together. All criticism of EG becomes moot if he lands KD.

Am I wrong?

[leswizards]

If his strategy to make a bid for a big free agent in 2016 works out, he's a genius and we're all idiots.

I am quite certain that the vast majority of EG's harshest critics have been advocating for the Wizards to do exactly that. So, if EG actually pulls it off, why is he the genius, and his critics the idiots?

Because EG's job is to win a championship and there's nothing more we can ask from him than to put a championship caliber roster together. All criticism of EG becomes moot if he lands KD.

Am I wrong?

I am not going to say you are wrong, but I don't think it makes his critics idiots. His critics have many valid reasons for hating his years of mismanagement. But, after this off season, maybe you are right, and all of EG's years of mismanagement are in the past and not something to be worried about in the future.

[milellie111]

What "stupid" arguments have I made? That Ernie Grunfeld should not be fired, has done a wonderful job of turning this team around, and management is moving in the right direction? That Wittman could be a candidate for coach of the year? The Grunfeld is a much better GM under Ted than Abe? I have a 2nd round playoff advancement last year and an 18-6 record this season to back up my assertions.

The stupid ones are those who highlight bad moves years ago that aren't even on the team anymore who say he should still be fired.

You were highly critical of all the people you just praised. Apparently, you believe people are only allowed to be critical of EG, Ted, and Wittman when you say it is acceptable to do so. That is a pretty stupid argument. Nearly every poster who is critical of EG, explains their reasons for doing so. You almost never acknowledge those reasons, and are dismissive of them with some flip comment like "those who highlight bad moves years ago that aren't even on the team anymore". That is a pretty stupid argument. You once started a thread accusing another poster of being a troll, and advocating that other posters should ignore that poster. That was a pretty stupid argument that would have gotten you permanently banned on quite a few boards. It was also incredibly immature. I could go on, but you will keep going on being an immature poster who wants to grief other posters who have valid reasons for hating the years of EG's mismanagement.

Yes I was critical of management before, I never denied that. But there was justification. The team was losing and badly.

What justification is there now to still promote a dislike for management? Especially now that the Wiz are one of the best teams in the NBA. That right there is foolish and trollish.

Where have I every advocated other posters to ignore another poster? Please link the thread for me. I doubt if you will be able to find it.