Big Al's Paint: The Al Jefferson Thread

[EwingSweatsALot]

I don't know if it will make us better. Al has been our best player night in and night out over the last year plus. Rarely ever do you get better by getting rid of that guy.

I will say though if you look at our roster top to bottom. He is the guy that doesn't fit. We are an all out athletic defensive team that can run and axore in transition. We have guys that play better in an open court by forcing TOs and running on missed shots. Al does not fit that. For some reason we try to fit 12 to 1 instead of 1 to 12.

[yosemiteben]

For starters, one must point out that Rudy Gay was only with the Raptors for like half of an NBA season. They acquired him at the end of January 2013 and then traded him at the beginning of December 2013. I think that is definitely a relevant factor in this conversation.

The season before Toronto acquired Rudy Gay, they finished the season 23-43. When Toronto acquired Rudy Gay, they were 16 - 30. They finished the season 34 - 48 (they were 7-3 in their last 10 games), so they were 18 - 18 after acquiring Gay. Playing .500 ball was a significant improvement for them.

They were 7 - 12 when they traded Gay.

It's a little disingenuous to act like trading Rudy Gay was an isolated change. There were a lot of roster moves at the time - they sent away Calderon to get Gay, and then they had Bargnani in and out of the lineup.

The Raptors also had role players that had shown a much greater ability to score, both volume-wise and efficiency-wise, than the Hornets. Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas had shown that they could both consistently score around 8-10 ppg on over 50% FG% in limited minutes before Gay arrived and while he was there.

DeRozan's play also dramatically improved after Gay came aboard. Post-All Star in 2013 (which basically is when Gay came on board) DeRozan averaged 20 ppg on 46% FG%.

Our role players are not nearly as productive as Toronto's were before Gay got there or while he was around, and no one has shown the ability to replace Al's production like DeRozan did while playing with Gay. Toronto had strong signs that their players were ready to make up for any production that would be lost by trading Gay. No one here has shown that sort of ability.

[BlackOutBuzz]

So is this basically the Ewing Theory? I think a better example for Gay would be him leaving Memphis.

Either way, I think this has legs but it'd be damn near impossible for us to score the ball without Al.

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[yosemiteben]

...it'd be damn near impossible for us to score the ball without Al.

That's my problem with it.

It's one thing to make this argument when there's evidence that others can carrying the scoring load and are currently doing it more efficiently. In the 2013-14 season before he was traded Gay was shooting 39% from the field yet was taking 19 shots per game. That's like Kemba maintaining his season average but shooting five more times per game, despite having teammates that have shown the ability to score much more efficiently.

It's a different thing to make the argument that Al is responsible for everyone else's poor performance, and that trading him will result in increases in everyone's percentages across the board. Maybe that could happen, but that's not what happened in Toronto.

[Hornet Mania]

I think the best argument for trading Al, and I'm not personally advocating this (until we're well out of the playoff picture), is that no plausible plan for medium or long-term improvement really includes him. If we build around him, what would be the point? He's not going to improve, if anything in 2-3 years we will likely see a noticeable decline. Unless he takes a hometown discount we may be paying this guy 10mil+ for the next 3-4 years when he probably shouldn't be a focal point of any team that seriously wants to contend.

Al is just fine when you need a league-average efficiency player on volume to lift a decrepit offense. He did exactly that for us last year, and I give him all the credit in the world for that. Lord knows he didn't have an awesome supporting cast to help shoulder the scoring load. But this year we suck, Al is a part of that, but even if he magically wasn't winded in 4th quarters we probably still lose roughly the same number of games. The argument for trading Al is that he has no place on a Hornets roster hoping to make some noise in the next few years. He's a short-term piece that we hoped would help us bridge the gap until the young guys can take over. Obviously even that isn't happening, so it's questionable what value he holds at all if we continue occupying the basement of the worst conference in recent league history.

I say keep Al for now and see if things turn around a bit before the All-Star break. If we're still looking at a top-10 lottery pick by then try to send him off for a pick or prospect. If we finish the year with 35 wins or less I don't see the point of extending him this summer anyway (I assume he opts out) so we might as well get an asset in return.

[GoBobs]

At this point we are 6-19, 1-10 on the road. Jefferson is part of the problem but not the whole problem. The team just doesn't have any confidence at this point. Guys aren't playing loose and having fun.

If we can get a good offer for Jefferson I think we would have to consider it given he is on a one year deal effectively and we are likely headed for a lottery pick. I expect we will only get offered crap though and our best shot at a good outcome will be keeping him and trying to right the ship.

[Braggins]

Al absolutely has not lifted our offense or made us a better offense team. This is not an opinion. It is a fact backed up purely by statistics. We bssically improved 2 points per 100 possessions from the previous year after bringing in Al and making roster upgrades accross the board. We are also 5 points per 100 possessions worse on offense with him on the court this season. It is pure myth that we cant score without Al and that he elevates or carries our offense. It just is not true and there is no factual or reality based argument for that myth.

[Liver_Pooty]

Its time to blow this team up. Period.

[MasterIchiro]

Al absolutely has not lifted our offense or made us a better offense team. This is not an opinion. It is a fact backed up purely by statistics. We bssically improved 2 points per 100 possessions from the previous year after bringing in Al and making roster upgrades accross the board. We are also 5 points per 100 possessions worse on offense with him on the court this season. It is pure myth that we cant score without Al and that he elevates or carries our offense. It just is not true and there is no factual or reality based argument for that myth.

I'm really curious to see how they'd respond without Al on the team. Would they become more like the Raptors? Obviously the Lee parallels are strong but the rest of that roster is very different from ours.

Would they win more and become more exciting to watch?

Would they win more and hold little entertainment value?

Would they lose more yet become more exciting?

Lose more and become less exciting?

How is it possible to lose more and become less exciting?

We either lose the same or win more.

We can't possibly lose much more than this.

We can't possibly become any less exciting.

It's time to really shift directions.

I hope the front office shares my curiosity.

[Braggins]

Al absolutely has not lifted our offense or made us a better offense team. This is not an opinion. It is a fact backed up purely by statistics. We bssically improved 2 points per 100 possessions from the previous year after bringing in Al and making roster upgrades accross the board. We are also 5 points per 100 possessions worse on offense with him on the court this season. It is pure myth that we cant score without Al and that he elevates or carries our offense. It just is not true and there is no factual or reality based argument for that myth.

I'm really curious to see how they'd respond without Al on the team. Would they become more like the Raptors? Obviously the Lee parallels are strong but the rest of that roster is very different from ours.

Would they win more and become more exciting to watch?

Would they win more and hold little entertainment value?

Would they lose more yet become more exciting?

Lose more and become less exciting?

How is it possible to lose more and become less exciting?

We either lose the same or win more and we can't become any less exciting.

It's time to really shift directions.

I hope the front office shares my curiosity.

I hope so too but I kind of doubt it. Once we start playing weak eastern teams that have no answer to Al he'll start putting up his gawdy yet empty stats and we'll still be terrible but it will solidify Al as our franchise player. I fully expect him to be resigned. I really hope Im wrong.

[Braggins]

Al absolutely has not lifted our offense or made us a better offense team. This is not an opinion. It is a fact backed up purely by statistics. We bssically improved 2 points per 100 possessions from the previous year after bringing in Al and making roster upgrades accross the board. We are also 5 points per 100 possessions worse on offense with him on the court this season. It is pure myth that we cant score without Al and that he elevates or carries our offense. It just is not true and there is no factual or reality based argument for that myth.

I'm really curious to see how they'd respond without Al on the team. Would they become more like the Raptors? Obviously the Lee parallels are strong but the rest of that roster is very different from ours.

Would they win more and become more exciting to watch?

Would they win more and hold little entertainment value?

Would they lose more yet become more exciting?

Lose more and become less exciting?

How is it possible to lose more and become less exciting?

We either lose the same or win more.

We can't possibly lose much more than this.

We can't possibly become any less exciting.

It's time to really shift directions.

I hope the front office shares my curiosity.

We've scored significantly better with him off the court so Im pretty optimistic we'd improve at least a little offensively(we cant get worse) and would definitely be more exciting. The defensive improvement could be massive and gives me hope that we might get quite a bit better.

[MasterIchiro]

Al absolutely has not lifted our offense or made us a better offense team. This is not an opinion. It is a fact backed up purely by statistics. We bssically improved 2 points per 100 possessions from the previous year after bringing in Al and making roster upgrades accross the board. We are also 5 points per 100 possessions worse on offense with him on the court this season. It is pure myth that we cant score without Al and that he elevates or carries our offense. It just is not true and there is no factual or reality based argument for that myth.

I'm really curious to see how they'd respond without Al on the team. Would they become more like the Raptors? Obviously the Lee parallels are strong but the rest of that roster is very different from ours.

Would they win more and become more exciting to watch?

Would they win more and hold little entertainment value?

Would they lose more yet become more exciting?

Lose more and become less exciting?

How is it possible to lose more and become less exciting?

We either lose the same or win more and we can't become any less exciting.

It's time to really shift directions.

I hope the front office shares my curiosity.

I hope so too but I kind of doubt it. Once we start playing weak eastern teams that have no answer to Al he'll start putting up his gawdy yet empty stats and we'll still be terrible but it will solidify Al as our franchise player. I fully expect him to be resigned. I really hope Im wrong.

Well I have you on the record as wrong on PJ, wrong on Neal, right on Kemba, wrong on MKG

I think you're right on Clifford and can really pin down his mistakes with great detail but you might be wrong about his potential.

Overall, I have sufficient hope you're wrong about the direction they take with Al. The 2-year deal was good for Al but also good for the front office. Lance as well. Both are convenient short-term experiments.


Something to consider…

They extended Kemba in advance of the Al Jefferson opt out. They obviously decided he is first priority moving forward. And Kemba doesn't need Al in order to succeed. Unlike Clifford, Al's option didn't automatically trigger. It's a good thing for Clifford because a team without Al might force him to make some of the adjustments you recommend instead of panicking and relying on old, worn out, predictable formulas.

[countryboi]

Al absolutely has not lifted our offense or made us a better offense team. This is not an opinion. It is a fact backed up purely by statistics. We bssically improved 2 points per 100 possessions from the previous year after bringing in Al and making roster upgrades accross the board. We are also 5 points per 100 possessions worse on offense with him on the court this season. It is pure myth that we cant score without Al and that he elevates or carries our offense. It just is not true and there is no factual or reality based argument for that myth.

I'm really curious to see how they'd respond without Al on the team. Would they become more like the Raptors? Obviously the Lee parallels are strong but the rest of that roster is very different from ours.

Would they win more and become more exciting to watch?

Would they win more and hold little entertainment value?

Would they lose more yet become more exciting?

Lose more and become less exciting?

How is it possible to lose more and become less exciting?

We either lose the same or win more.

We can't possibly lose much more than this.

We can't possibly become any less exciting.

It's time to really shift directions.

I hope the front office shares my curiosity.

They would most likely be more fun to watch but be awful can't be much worse than we are now.

[MasterIchiro]

Its time to blow this team up. Period.

I like blowing up stuff, for those of us who missed last night's game thread vs. the Suns (what a terrible team, desperately trying to gift us an AED shock to bring us back from the dead).

[Braggins]

I'm really curious to see how they'd respond without Al on the team. Would they become more like the Raptors? Obviously the Lee parallels are strong but the rest of that roster is very different from ours.

Would they win more and become more exciting to watch?

Would they win more and hold little entertainment value?

Would they lose more yet become more exciting?

Lose more and become less exciting?

How is it possible to lose more and become less exciting?

We either lose the same or win more and we can't become any less exciting.

It's time to really shift directions.

I hope the front office shares my curiosity.

I hope so too but I kind of doubt it. Once we start playing weak eastern teams that have no answer to Al he'll start putting up his gawdy yet empty stats and we'll still be terrible but it will solidify Al as our franchise player. I fully expect him to be resigned. I really hope Im wrong.

Well I have you on the record as wrong on PJ, wrong on Neal, right on Kemba, wrong on MKG

I think you're right on Clifford and can really pin down his mistakes with great detail but you might be wrong about his potential.

Overall, I have sufficient hope you're wrong about the direction they take with Al. The 2-year deal was good for Al but also good for the front office. Lance as well. Both are convenient short-term experiments.


Something to consider…

They extended Kemba in advance of the Al Jefferson opt out. They obviously decided he is first priority moving forward. And Kemba doesn't need Al in order to succeed. Unlike Clifford, Al's option didn't automatically trigger. It's a good thing for Clifford because a team without Al might force him to make some of the adjustments you recommend instead of panicking and relying on old, worn out, predictable formulas.

I dont think I was wrong on PJ really. I didnt think hed be much help this year but prioritized him over Neal due to potential. I was definitely wrong about Neal though. You know MKG is a stud . I dont want to be on record as saying thats definitely what will happen with Al. That is just my fear and I have a really bad feeling about it.

[yosemiteben]

They extended Kemba in advance of the Al Jefferson opt out. They obviously decided he is first priority moving forward.

An otherwise very good post, but I don't agree that extending Kemba demonstrated this.

[MasterIchiro]

I hope so too but I kind of doubt it. Once we start playing weak eastern teams that have no answer to Al he'll start putting up his gawdy yet empty stats and we'll still be terrible but it will solidify Al as our franchise player. I fully expect him to be resigned. I really hope Im wrong.

Well I have you on the record as wrong on PJ, wrong on Neal, right on Kemba, wrong on MKG

I think you're right on Clifford and can really pin down his mistakes with great detail but you might be wrong about his potential.

Overall, I have sufficient hope you're wrong about the direction they take with Al. The 2-year deal was good for Al but also good for the front office. Lance as well. Both are convenient short-term experiments.


Something to consider…

They extended Kemba in advance of the Al Jefferson opt out. They obviously decided he is first priority moving forward. And Kemba doesn't need Al in order to succeed. Unlike Clifford, Al's option didn't automatically trigger. It's a good thing for Clifford because a team without Al might force him to make some of the adjustments you recommend instead of panicking and relying on old, worn out, predictable formulas.

I dont think I was wrong on PJ really. I didnt think hed be much help this year but prioritized him over Neal due to potential. I was definitely wrong about Neal though. You know MKG is a stud . I dont want to be on record as saying thats definitely what will happen with Al. That is just my fear and I have a really bad feeling about it.

You need to not let emotion disrupt your logic and proceed to go on record. Walk the plank.

[MasterIchiro]

They extended Kemba in advance of the Al Jefferson opt out. They obviously decided he is first priority moving forward.

An otherwise very good post, but I don't agree that extending Kemba demonstrated this.

Could be. Perhaps the plan was to lock in Kemba to beat the market while luring Al back. Then after locking up Al to an equally handsome deal, trigger the Lance option.

It all was supposed to be a smooth sequence BUT

Obviously our big 3 need to be separated.

Lance is first in line on the chopping block but Al is next.

[JDR720]

I dont think extending Kemba has anything to do with Al, he would've been a restricted free agent and we obviously want to keep him so why not go ahead and get a deal done.

We didn't extend Biz tho who happens to play center, that might have more to do with Al than Kemba does.

[MasterIchiro]

So Rondo, like Al is in his walk year. Al is virtually an expiring contract.

Like Rondo, Al is the face of the franchise and a crutch to many fans.

Like the Hornets, the Celtics are a terrible team yet the Celtics' record is even better and current proximity to a playoff spot, even closer.

Trading Rondo caused some rioting among fans as would an Al Jefferson trade.

Danny Ainge had the balls to do it anyways.

Does Cho?

Brandan Wright + a late 1st is the market rate for an expiring star with severe limitations on one side of the ball and shaky health issues.