'14-'15 Rookie/Sophomore/Junior Thread

[Nivek]

And, 2nd year players with at least 250 minutes so far:

Code: Select all

RANK    PLAYER                          TEAM    GMS     MPG     PPA
1       Rudy Gobert                     UTA     29      18.5    156
2       Gorgui Dieng                    MIN     26      27.7    153
3       Shabazz Muhammad                MIN     26      20.5    128
4       Robert Covington                PHI     17      22.6    127
5       Mason Plumlee                   BRK     26      18.8    124
6       Kelly Olynyk                    BOS     25      25.7    120
7       Giannis Antetokounmpo           MIL     28      27.4    107
8       Dennis Schröder                 ATL     26      18.5    105
9       Andre Roberson                  OKC     20      24.2    104
10      Steven Adams                    OKC     28      24.8    103
11      Isaiah Canaan                   HOU     17      19.4    97
12      Victor Oladipo                  ORL     21      32.4    84
13      Otto Porter                     WAS     25      19.6    84
14      Cody Zeller                     CHO     28      23.5    83
15      Alex Len                        PHO     29      18.5    80
16      Solomon Hill                    IND     28      32.1    71
17      Ben McLemore                    SAC     28      33.2    68
18      Tim Hardaway                    NYK     30      21.3    64
19      Trey Burke                      UTA     29      31.6    62
20      Anthony Bennett                 MIN     25      16.8    61
21      Hollis Thompson                 PHI     25      28.0    57
22      Allen Crabbe                    POR     24      14.8    57
23      Shane Larkin                    NYK     27      22.9    57
24      Kentavious Caldwell-Pope        DET     28      32.4    55
25      Michael Carter-Williams         PHI     19      33.9    51
26      Brandon Davies                  PHI/BRK 24      17.3    45
27      Pero Antic                      ATL     22      16.6    40
28      Robbie Hummel                   MIN     22      11.3    36


Definitely better than the rookies. Almost like experience matters. Third-year guys coming up.

[Nivek]

Third year players:

Code: Select all

RANK    PLAYER          TEAM    GMS     MPG     PPA
1       Anthony Davis   NOP     26      35.0    302
2       Damian Lillard  POR     29      35.5    201
3       Tyler Zeller    BOS     25      19.0    170
4       Jonas Vlncns    TOR     28      26.8    166
5       Jared Sullinger BOS     25      28.4    156
6       Andre Drummond  DET     28      29.9    154
7       Harrison Barnes GSW     26      30.9    153
8       Kyle O'Quinn    ORL     15      19.7    149
9       Draymond Green  GSW     26      33.5    142
10      Patrick Bevrly  HOU     15      33.6    127
11      MKG             CHO     14      24.4    127
12      Henry Sims      PHI     26      23.5    112
13      Pablo Prigioni  NYK     28      19.6    104
14      Alexey Shved    PHI     17      16.8    101
15      Miles Plumlee   PHO     29      22.2    101
16      Terrence Ross   TOR     29      27.9    100
17      Jeremy Lamb     OKC     22      22.2    96
18      Mirza Teletovic BRK     23      23.4    92
19      Aron Baynes     SAS     28      16.6    92
20      Bradley Beal    WAS     17      32.9    90
21      Khris Middleton MIL     25      23.4    86
22      Donatas Motjuns HOU     27      27.5    86
23      Mike Scott      ATL     25      14.7    82
24      Evan Fournier   ORL     29      33.0    78
25      Kendall Mrshll  MIL     17      14.9    71
26      Jae Crowder     DAL/BOS 26      10.5    69
27      Quincy Acy      NYK     27      21.7    68
28      Brian Roberts   CHO     28      17.0    67
29      Kyle Singler    DET     28      23.0    65
30      Tony Wroten     PHI     20      30.8    63
31      Austin Rivers   NOP     27      22.8    60
32      Joel Freeland   POR     26      11.5    58
33      Robert Sacre    LAL     26      14.0    51
34      Dion Waiters    CLE     25      22.6    43
35      Maurice Harklss ORL     16      16.3    31
36      Perry Jones     OKC     13      21.5    28
37      Chris Copeland  IND     26      23.3    17

It's almost like experience matters.

Davis is tops in the league, of course. At age 21. The best PPA season was a 282 by Lebron in his 3rd year in Miami.

[Zonkerbl]

If Anthony Davis' PPA is so high, how high has Tim Duncan's been throughout his career?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Robert Covington destroyed the D-League last season. When the Rockets released him I thought he would be a starter eventually for some team.

Philly won its second straight game behind the efforts of second year players Covington, Thompson, and Carter-Williams. Noel and IIRC JeramI Grant are rookies. They are going to be a formidable team with a healthy Joel Embiid.

[Nivek]

If Anthony Davis' PPA is so high, how high has Tim Duncan's been throughout his career?

Duncan's career PPA is 210. This season, he's at 213 so far. At 38 years old. Umm...wow.

His peak was 247 in 2004-05.

Last season was the "worst" of his career -- a mere 186. He posted a 187 as a rookie.

Davis had a 178 rookie season, and 213 last year.

[Zonkerbl]

If Anthony Davis' PPA is so high, how high has Tim Duncan's been throughout his career?

Duncan's career PPA is 210. This season, he's at 213 so far. At 38 years old. Umm...wow.

His peak was 247 in 2004-05.

Last season was the "worst" of his career -- a mere 186. He posted a 187 as a rookie.

Davis had a 178 rookie season, and 213 last year.

Yikes. Are we witnessing the rebirth of the Stilt?

[dckingsfan]

Wait, I had Porter and Beal in the top 10 of both lists... say it aint so...

[Nivek]

If Anthony Davis' PPA is so high, how high has Tim Duncan's been throughout his career?

Duncan's career PPA is 210. This season, he's at 213 so far. At 38 years old. Umm...wow.

His peak was 247 in 2004-05.

Last season was the "worst" of his career -- a mere 186. He posted a 187 as a rookie.

Davis had a 178 rookie season, and 213 last year.

Yikes. Are we witnessing the rebirth of the Stilt?

Could be. Maybe a more dominant version.

One of these days, I'll look into extending PPA back to the years before the various stats I use were available. I oughta be able to construct something worthwhile using the info that's around. May need to estimate stuff like blocks, steals, turnovers. Maybe offensive and defensive boards as well.

[Nivek]

Wait, I had Porter and Beal in the top 10 of both lists... say it aint so...

Not yet, anyway.

[dckingsfan]

Wait, I had Porter and Beal in the top 10 of both lists... say it aint so...

Not yet, anyway.

That is a bit worrisome that our last two picks don't rank higher - both are young so we need to give them time - but you worry they aren't going to get where they need to be...

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Third year players:

Code: Select all

RANK    PLAYER          TEAM    GMS     MPG     PPA
1       Anthony Davis   NOP     26      35.0    302
2       Damian Lillard  POR     29      35.5    201
3       Tyler Zeller    BOS     25      19.0    170
4       Jonas Vlncns    TOR     28      26.8    166
5       Jared Sullinger BOS     25      28.4    156
6       Andre Drummond  DET     28      29.9    154
7       Harrison Barnes GSW     26      30.9    153
8       Kyle O'Quinn    ORL     15      19.7    149
9       Draymond Green  GSW     26      33.5    142
10      Patrick Bevrly  HOU     15      33.6    127
11      MKG             CHO     14      24.4    127
12      Henry Sims      PHI     26      23.5    112
13      Pablo Prigioni  NYK     28      19.6    104
14      Alexey Shved    PHI     17      16.8    101
15      Miles Plumlee   PHO     29      22.2    101
16      Terrence Ross   TOR     29      27.9    100
17      Jeremy Lamb     OKC     22      22.2    96
18      Mirza Teletovic BRK     23      23.4    92
19      Aron Baynes     SAS     28      16.6    92
20      Bradley Beal    WAS     17      32.9    90
21      Khris Middleton MIL     25      23.4    86
22      Donatas Motjuns HOU     27      27.5    86
23      Mike Scott      ATL     25      14.7    82
24      Evan Fournier   ORL     29      33.0    78
25      Kendall Mrshll  MIL     17      14.9    71
26      Jae Crowder     DAL/BOS 26      10.5    69
27      Quincy Acy      NYK     27      21.7    68
28      Brian Roberts   CHO     28      17.0    67
29      Kyle Singler    DET     28      23.0    65
30      Tony Wroten     PHI     20      30.8    63
31      Austin Rivers   NOP     27      22.8    60
32      Joel Freeland   POR     26      11.5    58
33      Robert Sacre    LAL     26      14.0    51
34      Dion Waiters    CLE     25      22.6    43
35      Maurice Harklss ORL     16      16.3    31
36      Perry Jones     OKC     13      21.5    28
37      Chris Copeland  IND     26      23.3    17

It's almost like experience matters.

Davis is tops in the league, of course. At age 21. The best PPA season was a 282 by Lebron in his 3rd year in Miami.

Where are the people who ridiculed my affinity for Tyler Zeller? I could name names, but I won't.

Pau Gasol still is very good. His statistics when healthy, while playing for the Lakers led me to conclude BACK THEN that Pau is still better than Nene or Gortat. (THAT IS WHY I SUGGESTED TRADES, TGW AND OTHERS...) Folks who wanted no parts of Pau were wrong, as generally the same folks were wrong about Tyler Zeller .Tyler Zeller so far ranks above Beal, but that isn't meant to bring arguments about how good Beal is. It just should make folks rethink short arms keeping Zeller from being effective.

I won't let haters run me away from RealGM. A lot of negative people who generally only know enough to attack other posters would love for there to be even one less poster on this board.

I have my Morris Almond or Mike Sweeney moments. So, not to stress out anyone. Just that I love it when folks say I am wrong.

I hope I'm not running ANYONE AWAY. Put me on ignore if you can't stand me, my posts, or me showing you up.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

A lot of the higher scored third year players also spent four years in college.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nivek, your lists and overall contributions are the best. Thanks and Merry Christmas!

[Nivek]

Wait, I had Porter and Beal in the top 10 of both lists... say it aint so...

Not yet, anyway.

That is a bit worrisome that our last two picks don't rank higher - both are young so we need to give them time - but you worry they aren't going to get where they need to be...

Porter doesn't concern me much, because I look at this as basically a redshirt rookie year. He's actually doing a bit better as a (redshirt) rookie than his most similar college comparisons.

There are reasons for Beal not be as productive as we'd all like, but there's also at least some reason for concern. He doesn't seem to be improving much. The numbers are much the same this year as they were last year as they were his rookie year. Except, fewer rebounds, more steals and more turnovers.

One potentially encouraging sign: he's taking fewer long 2s and getting to the rim a bit more. And, he can really shoot it from 3pt range. But, I'd like to see him start showing overall improvement, though.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I agree on Porter. I think if he were getting more playing time with the starters Otto would get much better much faster. Whoever first made the Nikolas Batum comparison is correct, IMO. Otto has higher offensive potential but not the same passing skill. Otherwise, he is extremely similar to Batum.

As good as Beal is, he is not playing all that well. I was concerned when I saw old Kobe Bryant look much quicker and more fluid than Bradley Beal.

[Dark Faze]

I'd like to worry about Beal, but the kid is 21. Again, I point to Klay Thompson. Older than Beal and his third year (last year) was similar to Beals sophmore year. I'd hoped Beal would develop sooner, but I just can't be all that concerned at this juncture with his play.

Porter has a higher ceiling than Beal imo. And I said it last year that he needed more minutes becuase his defense looked just as good then as it does now. And his shooting percentages are incredibly good for a player with so few minutes logged (though enough to qualify).

[dckingsfan]

Good point on Porter + he has shown year over year improvement. Good point - if you put him in the rookie class, he is doing just fine.

[payitforward]

http://www.nba.com/2014/news/features/scott_howard_cooper/12/10/2014-15-rookie-ladder-week-7/index.html

KJ McDaniels makes the case that you should always use your second round pick.

Not only use your second round pick, but acquire others and use them too. Second rounders get non-guaranteed contracts at the minimum. Great place to take chances on talented guys who might fill out the end of a rotation...or better. Worst case, they're training camp fodder and easily released. There's zero risk for the team.

Yes yes yes!

And of course the stronger the draft in the first round, the stronger the draft in the second round! I wonder how much, if any, difference there is, looked at longitudinally, between the success of guys taken in the last 8 picks of R1 vs. those taken in the first 8 picks of R2. Not much, maybe none, I bet.

[dckingsfan]

Nikola Mirotic is #3, I think he is going to win it...unless he just doesn't get the minutes - he is playing a meaningful role on a team that will be in contention to win the east.

http://www.nba.com/2014/news/features/s ... index.html

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Mirotic is a teammate of the only foreign-born NBA Rookie of the Year, Pau Gasol (2002).

Like Pau was when he came to the NBA, Nikola is the reigning Spanish league MVP.