Official John Wall Appreciation Thread 2.0

[sfam]

Really great seeing the Wizards play this year, and Wall especially. He is turning into the player I thought he'd be. Definitely one of the more exciting players to watch, not just because of his insane athletics, but also just him personally striving to improve. Its been great to watch him evolve.

I think some aspect of Wall's shot will improve year after year. As for what drives him, I'm thinking Wall got more drive from being kicked off the Olympics team early than he did from an All Star appearance. He seems to really take slights hard.

[deneem4]

Really great seeing the Wizards play this year, and Wall especially. He is turning into the player I thought he'd be. Definitely one of the more exciting players to watch, not just because of his insane athletics, but also just him personally striving to improve. Its been great to watch him evolve.

I think some aspect of Wall's shot will improve year after year. As for what drives him, I'm thinking Wall got more drive from being kicked off the Olympics team early than he did from an All Star appearance. He seems to really take slights hard.

wall jumper has been amazing this year hes shooting 50% from 10-16 feet...if only he drove more or chose to shoot the 3 instead

[Nivek]

Really great seeing the Wizards play this year, and Wall especially. He is turning into the player I thought he'd be. Definitely one of the more exciting players to watch, not just because of his insane athletics, but also just him personally striving to improve. Its been great to watch him evolve.

I think some aspect of Wall's shot will improve year after year. As for what drives him, I'm thinking Wall got more drive from being kicked off the Olympics team early than he did from an All Star appearance. He seems to really take slights hard.

wall jumper has been amazing this year hes shooting 50% from 10-16 feet...if only he drove more or chose to shoot the 3 instead

It's nice, but a) it's a tiny sample size, b) it's one of his least frequently taken shots, and c) it's still a shot the defense wants him taking.

This season, roughly 15% of his FGA have been in that 10-16 foot range. His 50% shooting from there may just be an aberration -- he's shooting 39% from 3-10 feet and 37% from 16 feet to the 3pt line.

In total, 56% of his FGA this season have been 2pt attempts from outside 3 feet. He's shooting 40% on those attempts. Not anywhere close to good enough. Compare with his combined efg on at-rim and 3pt attempts -- 58.5%.

There are definitely times when 2pt jumpers are necessary, but it's the shot the defense wants him taking.

[deneem4]

Really great seeing the Wizards play this year, and Wall especially. He is turning into the player I thought he'd be. Definitely one of the more exciting players to watch, not just because of his insane athletics, but also just him personally striving to improve. Its been great to watch him evolve.

I think some aspect of Wall's shot will improve year after year. As for what drives him, I'm thinking Wall got more drive from being kicked off the Olympics team early than he did from an All Star appearance. He seems to really take slights hard.

wall jumper has been amazing this year hes shooting 50% from 10-16 feet...if only he drove more or chose to shoot the 3 instead

It's nice, but a) it's a tiny sample size, b) it's one of his least frequently taken shots, and c) it's still a shot the defense wants him taking.

This season, roughly 15% of his FGA have been in that 10-16 foot range. His 50% shooting from there may just be an aberration -- he's shooting 39% from 3-10 feet and 37% from 16 feet to the 3pt line.

In total, 56% of his FGA this season have been 2pt attempts from outside 3 feet. He's shooting 40% on those attempts. Not anywhere close to good enough. Compare with his combined efg on at-rim and 3pt attempts -- 58.5%.

There are definitely times when 2pt jumpers are necessary, but it's the shot the defense wants him taking.

but hes hitting them and he can get the shot easily...I would love for him to drive more but hes shooting almost 15% better from there...eventually defenses will start to respect it

[Nivek]

but hes hitting them and he can get the shot easily...I would love for him to drive more but hes shooting almost 15% better from there...eventually defenses will start to respect it

He's hitting from one specific range on a small sample size, and the good shooting from there may or may not continue. We're talking roughly 60 attempts from that range so far this year. And his percentages from 3-9 feet is significantly worse, as his percentage from 16 feet to the 3pt line. The defense still wants him shooting from the midrange instead of getting to the rim. And, at 50%, that 10-16 foot shot is about as efficient for him as shooting a three.

Sometimes 2pt jumpers are necessary. But there's a reason he can get them easily: the defense wants him shooting them.

[jangles86]

but hes hitting them and he can get the shot easily...I would love for him to drive more but hes shooting almost 15% better from there...eventually defenses will start to respect it

He's hitting from one specific range on a small sample size, and the good shooting from there may or may not continue. We're talking roughly 60 attempts from that range so far this year. And his percentages from 3-9 feet is significantly worse, as his percentage from 16 feet to the 3pt line. The defense still wants him shooting from the midrange instead of getting to the rim. And, at 50%, that 10-16 foot shot is about as efficient for him as shooting a three.

Sometimes 2pt jumpers are necessary. But there's a reason he can get them easily: the defense wants him shooting them.

Nivek do you have an explanation as to why Wall is so far down on Win shares from last season? He was at 4 OWS and 4 DWS last season on 82 games but this year he is at 1.3 OWS and 1.7 DWS, even though it's thought of he is playing better at both ends then last season.

[Hypnotizer]

Top 10, Dec. 27

[deneem4]

the on/off for opp otrg...is -14 for john wall....with john wall on thr bench opponent's have a 115 offensive rating...vs 99 with him on thr floor...were also a top 10 defense...how is he not getting dpoty consideration

[Nivek]

the on/off for opp otrg...is -14 for john wall....with john wall on thr bench opponent's have a 115 offensive rating...vs 99 with him on thr floor...were also a top 10 defense...how is he not getting dpoty consideration

In my metric, he continues to rate as the league's top defensive PG. But, he'll have a tough time being considered for DPOY in a league with Anthony Davis, Tyson Chandler, Kawhi Leonard and some others.

Also, keep in mind that on/off stats are, at least in part, a measure of the quality of a player's backups. In this case, Wall's excellent defense is being overstated some by the raw on/off measure because most of the backup PG minutes have been played by Andre Miller, who is a bad defender. And, Miller's awfulness has probably been exaggerated a bit by sharing the floor with guys like Seraphin and Gooden, who are poor defenders.

[Nivek]

but hes hitting them and he can get the shot easily...I would love for him to drive more but hes shooting almost 15% better from there...eventually defenses will start to respect it

He's hitting from one specific range on a small sample size, and the good shooting from there may or may not continue. We're talking roughly 60 attempts from that range so far this year. And his percentages from 3-9 feet is significantly worse, as his percentage from 16 feet to the 3pt line. The defense still wants him shooting from the midrange instead of getting to the rim. And, at 50%, that 10-16 foot shot is about as efficient for him as shooting a three.

Sometimes 2pt jumpers are necessary. But there's a reason he can get them easily: the defense wants him shooting them.

Nivek do you have an explanation as to why Wall is so far down on Win shares from last season? He was at 4 OWS and 4 DWS last season on 82 games but this year he is at 1.3 OWS and 1.7 DWS, even though it's thought of he is playing better at both ends then last season.

They report Win Shares in totals. His WS/48 is at a career-best .153 so far this season. He projects to a WS total of 11.3, which would be his career high so far.

[tontoz]

I may be imagining this but it seems like this month Wall isn't taking as many of those long 2s early in the clock without anyone touching the ball. Those are the shots that are really annoying. Not only are they inefficient but there is still plenty of time to get a better shot.

Doesn't seem like he is doing that as much now. That may be at least part of the reason why his assists are up.

Sometimes he still winds up taking a long 2 after the ball has been passed a few times but it doesn't bother me as much then.

[Nivek]

I may be imagining this but it seems like this month Wall isn't taking as many of those long 2s early in the clock without anyone touching the ball. Those are the shots that are really annoying. Not only are they inefficient but there is still plenty of time to get a better shot.

Doesn't seem like he is doing that as much now. That may be at least part of the reason why his assists are up.

Sometimes he still winds up taking a long 2 after the ball has been passed a few times but it doesn't bother me as much then.

82games hasn't updated in a couple weeks, but Wall's shot clock usage numbers indicate that he's taking fewer shots in the middle of the shot clock -- with 11-15 seconds elapsed. His early shot clock attempts are much the same -- 47% of FGA this season vs. 46% last year. This year, he's shooting more frequently (and better) in the last 8 seconds of the shot clock.

Code: Select all

Wall % of FGA by time elapsed on shot clock           
Secs.   2013-14 2014-15
0-10    46%     47%
11-15   24%     18%
16-20   18%     20%
21+     12%     15%



Definitely agree with having no problem with him taking a 2pt jumper later in the shot clock after they've run their offense.

[tontoz]

In november i remember him taking a lot of those long 2s without anyone touching it.

In december his overall attempts are down a little. He has taken 13.9 shots per game this month in 36 minutes. Last season he took 16.3 shots in 36 minutes.

[Zonkerbl]

Voted for All Stars today.

West:
Davis
Duncan
Marc Gasol
Curry
Paul

East:
Carmelo
Gortat
Monroe
Butler (tomorrow I'll vote in Beal)
Wall

NBA's game predictor says West team would have a 75% chance of winning. >:(

Well, yeah, because I voted for Melo. And how fair is it that Davis is considered in the Western conference? Dude plays east of the Mississippi river!

[jangles86]

Is there a stat that show how many attempts Wall takes in the first half compared to the second half? I feel as though he shoots a lot more in the second half.

[tontoz]

Is there a stat that show how many attempts Wall takes in the first half compared to the second half? I feel as though he shoots a lot more in the second half.

You can break down shot attempts any way you want using br's play index +.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... d=walljo01

[Zonkerbl]

the on/off for opp otrg...is -14 for john wall....with john wall on thr bench opponent's have a 115 offensive rating...vs 99 with him on thr floor...were also a top 10 defense...how is he not getting dpoty consideration

In my metric, he continues to rate as the league's top defensive PG. But, he'll have a tough time being considered for DPOY in a league with Anthony Davis, Tyson Chandler, Kawhi Leonard and some others.

Also, keep in mind that on/off stats are, at least in part, a measure of the quality of a player's backups. In this case, Wall's excellent defense is being overstated some by the raw on/off measure because most of the backup PG minutes have been played by Andre Miller, who is a bad defender. And, Miller's awfulness has probably been exaggerated a bit by sharing the floor with guys like Seraphin and Gooden, who are poor defenders.

I suppose if you tried a little harder you could invent a game that is even more difficult to evaluate statistically. Maybe Quidditch.

[Nivek]

the on/off for opp otrg...is -14 for john wall....with john wall on thr bench opponent's have a 115 offensive rating...vs 99 with him on thr floor...were also a top 10 defense...how is he not getting dpoty consideration

In my metric, he continues to rate as the league's top defensive PG. But, he'll have a tough time being considered for DPOY in a league with Anthony Davis, Tyson Chandler, Kawhi Leonard and some others.

Also, keep in mind that on/off stats are, at least in part, a measure of the quality of a player's backups. In this case, Wall's excellent defense is being overstated some by the raw on/off measure because most of the backup PG minutes have been played by Andre Miller, who is a bad defender. And, Miller's awfulness has probably been exaggerated a bit by sharing the floor with guys like Seraphin and Gooden, who are poor defenders.

I suppose if you tried a little harder you could invent a game that is even more difficult to evaluate statistically. Maybe Quidditch.

If it was as easy as baseball, it wouldn't be nearly as much fun. Football is very tough because there are no stats in the box score for activities that matter a lot for who wins and loses.

Basketball is fun for statistical analysis because there's a lot of good information that does a good job of explaining wins and losses when analyzed thoughtfully.

[fishercob]

I may be imagining this but it seems like this month Wall isn't taking as many of those long 2s early in the clock without anyone touching the ball. Those are the shots that are really annoying. Not only are they inefficient but there is still plenty of time to get a better shot.

Doesn't seem like he is doing that as much now. That may be at least part of the reason why his assists are up.

Sometimes he still winds up taking a long 2 after the ball has been passed a few times but it doesn't bother me as much then.

82games hasn't updated in a couple weeks, but Wall's shot clock usage numbers indicate that he's taking fewer shots in the middle of the shot clock -- with 11-15 seconds elapsed. His early shot clock attempts are much the same -- 47% of FGA this season vs. 46% last year. This year, he's shooting more frequently (and better) in the last 8 seconds of the shot clock.

Code: Select all

Wall % of FGA by time elapsed on shot clock           
Secs.   2013-14 2014-15
0-10    46%     47%
11-15   24%     18%
16-20   18%     20%
21+     12%     15%



Definitely agree with having no problem with him taking a 2pt jumper later in the shot clock after they've run their offense.

I'd love to know both time elapsed and distance. I don't have a problem with him tearing downcourt and attempting a layup with 20 seconds on the shot clock. I agree with tontoz -- it at least seems that he's shooting fewer long 2's early in the the shot clock.

[Severn Hoos]

I may be imagining this but it seems like this month Wall isn't taking as many of those long 2s early in the clock without anyone touching the ball. Those are the shots that are really annoying. Not only are they inefficient but there is still plenty of time to get a better shot.

Doesn't seem like he is doing that as much now. That may be at least part of the reason why his assists are up.

Sometimes he still winds up taking a long 2 after the ball has been passed a few times but it doesn't bother me as much then.

82games hasn't updated in a couple weeks, but Wall's shot clock usage numbers indicate that he's taking fewer shots in the middle of the shot clock -- with 11-15 seconds elapsed. His early shot clock attempts are much the same -- 47% of FGA this season vs. 46% last year. This year, he's shooting more frequently (and better) in the last 8 seconds of the shot clock.

Code: Select all

Wall % of FGA by time elapsed on shot clock           
Secs.   2013-14 2014-15
0-10    46%     47%
11-15   24%     18%
16-20   18%     20%
21+     12%     15%



Definitely agree with having no problem with him taking a 2pt jumper later in the shot clock after they've run their offense.

I'd love to know both time elapsed and distance. I don't have a problem with him tearing downcourt and attempting a layup with 20 seconds on the shot clock. I agree with tontoz -- it at least seems that he's shooting fewer long 2's early in the the shot clock.

And of course, the corresponding shooting percentages. The layups in the first 5 seconds of the shot clock should be going in at a higher percentage. And, of course, the 21+ seconds shots are going to be much lower percentage. I'm definitely interested in those in-between shots - when he's making them at a high clip or not.