Amir Johnson in decline? Look again.

[hankscorpioLA]

Not a personal attack OP but can we pleaseeee stop using the word NARRATIVE! It's annoying.

Why? Would you prefer "conventional wisdom" or "prevailing opinion"? They all say pretty much the same thing, which is that there is a "story" that people have accepted as truth that Amir is in decline and thus not someone we would want to keep as part of our long-term core.

Its a term that is MISused a lot, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't use it when its correct.

Also.. Amir is just fine, his ankles are bad and I would guess that if we keep up out current pace he will be given the opportunity to rest for a few weeks later in the season.

I doubt he will get a few weeks. Probably a few games here and there. But as long as he's healthy and we don't try to push him minutes-wise, there is no reason to take such dramatic action.

[knickerbocker2k2]

Amir right now is maybe worth 7 per. The problem is he's declining though. I certainly would not hand him 10. I also don't think Amir+Patterson is a long term solution to PF. But if both have manageable contracts in the 6-7 per range it's a lot better.

Amir is definitely worth more than $7M. In two years, every player will be worth 30% more. Frye/McRoberts just got paid $8M/$7M respectively. 2pat who backups up Amir got paid $6M, and he was RFA (also before new tv deal).

But that is not relevant anyway. Lets say a team offers him $10M, and you feel rightly he is not worth it. Letting him walk would be huge waste of resources. How are you going to fill his ~30Min per game? Mislap name gets thrown out there lot (which is totally unrealistic). He is getting paid $9M right now. To nap UFA you need to overpay. Lets say we pay him $16M per year. Now you spending $22M for PF spot. Are you any better than when you had Amir? Spending that much money on PF means you have less now to spend on areas of weakness (Lou, Ross/JV extensions, SF improvement, etc).

So it basically comes down to that if you don't resign Amir, you need to spend $15M+ for starting PF in the best case scenario. Most likely you will strike out on premiere FA, and you will have big hole in your front court.

[KL78192020]

he's a nice hardworking player, problem is hes too injury prone

Really?

He's missed 11 games in the past 4 seasons.

LeBron James has missed 16 games in the past 4 seasons.

Is LeBron James "too injury prone"?

People can't handle the the truth. The myth of his debilitated ankles has taken on a life of its own, without any actual facts about the status of his ankles today. A narrative has been created on this board and people are following it blindly

[LLJ]

His basic stats are the same. But with Amir, it has never about those numbers. It's the analytics that you have to look at. What's his screen rate on a per minute basis this year? What's his contested rebounding rate? What's his DRating? I've seen various stats during the past 2 months that suggested they were all down compared to previous years.

He's still the best positional defender on the team. But I'm not sure he's as impactful as he used to be. If Amir were still the defensive monster that he used to be, our defensive rating as a whole wouldn't be swinging up and down the totem pole from week to week depending on how good his ankles are feeling, which seems to be the case in my eyes. Some weeks he's great, some weeks he looks like he can barely rotate fast enough or fight for a rebound.

[Kenyon009]

He has a lot of milage on him. I hope Casey keeps under minutes somewhere between 20-25 against weaker teams, we should preserve him for playoffs. We actually have the chance to rest him and give him fewer minutes now that Patman is really picking up his play. I would go as far as taking Amir out early after he's set the tone in the game, so we would have Patterson the better three point shooter to make up for DeRozan's below average three point shooting.

[JYD]

Amir is definitely worth more than $7M. In two years, every player will be worth 30% more. Frye/McRoberts just got paid $8M/$7M respectively. 2pat who backups up Amir got paid $6M, and he was RFA (also before new tv deal).
.

I'm sure other teams would like to have him but I'm skeptical they're going to pay Amir 10 per considering his gimpiness. If he were perfectly healthy sure he'd be getting and be worth 10 per, he's really not though. If I'm another GM I don't see him as having starting 4 durability and also don't want to pay a bench big 10 million. Who knows who offers what, that assumption is why I say he's not worth 10 mil though.

[cammac]

Reality Amir Johnson is a good player and contributor that is a undisputable fact and has been a key player now and in the past.

But on the other hand is he a top PF? The answer is no and realistically he is in top 20 but unlikely to break top 15 which is fine when you are paid $7 million. We have cap space this year but not enough to resign Amir 9 to 10 million and Williams $6 million and get a upgrade at SF. Plus we haven't improved the team.

There are RFAs that can help the team Jimmy Butler (SG & SF) throw the Max at but expect Chicago to match, Draymond Green (SF & PF) $13 to 14 million GS unlikely to match. I don't see the benefit in resigning Amir to a 9 to 10 million contract.

[team edward]

i love amir but the man is getting technicals for grabbing the net mesh to help himself jump

Yeah, I love Amir, I want him re-signed, I want him to get paid without hometown discount or whatever, I want him on the floor at the end of games, I want him fresh to play 38 minutes in the playoffs, I want him playing the 5 spot when it's crunch time, I think he will be critical to playoff success and anyone who thinks he is expendable isn't watching.

But according to my eyes, he can barely jump off the ground anymore. Perhaps I am wrong, and anyway I guess it doesn't really matter that much, since baby hook shots, boxing out, staying vertical, moving your feet and setting screens don't actually require jumping and as Op points out his contribution is rock solid. But it makes me worried for him - not in a critical way, rather as a fan who wants him to still be at his peak performance for several more years.

If he wasted his good stuff on the Bargnani years....

[knickerbocker2k2]

I'm sure other teams would like to have him but I'm skeptical they're going to pay Amir 10 per considering his gimpiness. If he were perfectly healthy sure he'd be getting and be worth 10 per, he's really not though. If I'm another GM I don't see him as having starting 4 durability and also don't want to pay a bench big 10 million. Who knows who offers what, that assumption is why I say he's not worth 10 mil though.

One, lets dismiss the myth about his "gimpiness" or "injury" or "durablity". These are non issues. Someone like Rose coming off two knee injuries and playing few games in 3 years has injury issues. Amir has missed like 10 games in 4 years. Whatever ailments he has it is not a "injury" concern.

Secondly, the market determines players worth. If you are worth $1 to 29 teams, but one offers you $10M, you are worth $10M. Players don't need to convince all the teams, just one.



Contracts handed out this past summer. All those players are backup with the exception of Hill, who really should be backup with his play. On average teams gave $5-7M to players who they knew where going to be backup bigs. Even if you think Amir is backup big who is comparable to those players (he is head and shoulder above them), his starting salary is going to be around $7M. Once you understand this fact, it doesn't take much leap of faith to realize why a team would offer him $10M to play ~30Min for them (whether starting or not).

[Rapcity_11]

He's still the best positional defender on the team. But I'm not sure he's as impactful as he used to be. If Amir were still the defensive monster that he used to be, our defensive rating as a whole wouldn't be swinging up and down the totem pole from week to week depending on how good his ankles are feeling, which seems to be the case in my eyes. Some weeks he's great, some weeks he looks like he can barely rotate fast enough or fight for a rebound.

If what you were saying were true, that would be incredible defensive impact.

[MVP-]

The fact is people expect to contend for the title this year and the next couple (which I think is unreasonable and not really part of the grand scheme for the next few years (2016)) so they look at it like this:

Lowry - untouchable
DeRozan - 99% not gonna get traded
Ross - for God knows what reason has his stans/fanboys so basically untouchable
JV - who half the board his his D in their mouth so definitely untouchable even if the Bulls offered Noah or SA offered Kawhi

So that leaves Amir to replace in the starting lineup. So people come up with this stupid opinion which is clearly proven not to be backed by stats that Amir needs to be replaced. You take Amir, a main cog in the chemistry of this unit and watch this team implode.

[Sheldon Cooper]

Most people who think we can easily replace Amir don't know anything about basketball. He does so much off the ball that is not reflected in stats.



Look at Love and his empty rebounding stats. Guys like Love (including Faried/Hickson) just think about getting rebounds. Guys like Amir instead also rotate at the risk of being in worse defensive rebounding position. This is why his +/- are always off the roof. The guy plays for the team instead of looking for those empty stats.

Great post. It's not perfect, but the pro-Amir vs. upgrade-Amir divide is a pretty good proxy for recognizing who actually understands what they are watching.

I still see folks pining for a "scoring" PF despite the fact the Raps are humming along at a historic pace offensively. It boggles my mind.

I basically said as much in the "Bosh or LMA" thread. Specifically the part where we don't need to replace Amir with an inferior defensive player since we don't need more offense. Amir is awesome. He does a little bit of everything and is still relatively young. It will be a few years until he starts declining.

[JYD]

One, lets dismiss the myth about his "gimpiness" or "injury" or "durablity". These are non issues. Someone like Rose coming off two knee injuries and playing few games in 3 years has injury issues. Amir has missed like 10 games in 4 years. Whatever ailments he has it is not a "injury" concern.

Secondly, the market determines players worth. If you are worth $1 to 29 teams, but one offers you $10M, you are worth $10M. Players don't need to convince all the teams, just one.



Contracts handed out this past summer. All those players are backup with the exception of Hill, who really should be backup with his play. On average teams gave $5-7M to players who they knew where going to be backup bigs. Even if you think Amir is backup big who is comparable to those players (he is head and shoulder above them), his starting salary is going to be around $7M. Once you understand this fact, it doesn't take much leap of faith to realize why a team would offer him $10M to play ~30Min for them (whether starting or not).

It's not a myth, it's obvious he's hurting. Some days his body looks better than others, but he typically looks like he's running at maybe 80% of his former self physically.

I said he's worth 7 mil originally, did I not?

I also said who knows what other teams offer. If they offer upwards of 10 mil though I might go a different direction.

[RealRapsFan]

Doesn't matter what evidence is available, points scored trumps all.

Amir has been the single most underrated player since he got here. This hasn't changed in 5+ years, we shouldn't expect it to change now.

[Jakay]

Because after years of watching Amir play, he looks perma hurt, and that usually precludes vast improvements. But decline? eh... he'll be what he is now for awhile.

[Fairview4Life]

[neurotik]

Spoiler:

How do the stats (in particular but not exclusively the advanced stats) from 2, 3 and 4 years ago compare? I'm personally to lazy to dig them up

Excuse me....too lazy to "dig them up"?

Is this 1998?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... sam01.html

There you go.

but I'm willing to bet if you looked at Amir's stats (advanced included and focused on) for the past 5 years you would see a decline.

I'd take that bet because you would be wrong.

His rebounding numbers have dropped off, but as I mentioned, that can partly be explained by the change in frontcourt pairing from Bargnani to Jonas. He takes more shots now, but he hits them at a similar rate. Assists are higher. Steals, blocks and turnovers are pretty consistent. Personal Fouls have come WAYYYYY down from 6.3 per 36 in his first year with Toronto to 4.4 this year.

So, no, there is absolutely no statistical evidence of a decline of any kind.

Also, I can just see it by watching the game, he looks slower and less athletic, still a solid player, but in decline relative to his prime.

So basically, what it comes down to is the "eye test".

Of course, even this is debatable. Perhaps he's not flying around the court like he used to, but you shouldn't confuse movement with effectiveness. In part, he may be moving differently because of his offseason efforts to avoid further ankle injury.

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/09/29/ra ... r-big-deal

Johnson was hobbled by various ankle sprains and strains last season, though he mostly played through everything. The longest-serving Raptor (tied with DeMar DeRozan) said he did not need any off-season ankle surgery and believes he has a better chance at staying healthy all year after going through some advanced sports science in the off-season.

“They broke it down. They stuck light bulbs on me, they have something where you can see your skeleton, the way you jump, run and move,” Johnson said. “They see the way I jump, the way I land. What I do in the game. It could be something as little as the way I turn my foot inward when I slide and it just saves me from rolling my ankle. I’ve been doing that pretty much all summer.”

To me, this makes sense as an explanation why Amir Johnson may SEEM to be less active.

That is why we look to the stats and the outcomes. And when we do that, we see no evidence of decline.

Season 2012-13 2014/2015
G 81 28
PER 17.3 16.3
TS% .591 5.97
3PAr .021 0.87
FTr .309 .223 (down 27.8%)
ORB% 11.4 10.0
DRB% 20.0 15.2 (down 24%)
TRB% 15.6 12.6 (down 19.2%)
AST% 8.7 9.0
STL% 1.8 1.0
BLK% 3.8 2.9 (down 23%)
TOV% 14.5 12.7
USG% 16.1 15.9
OWS 4.4 1.6 (down 63.6%)
DWS 2.9 0.7 (down 75.8%)
WS 7.3 2.3 (down 68.5%)
WS/48 .151 .150
OBPM .7 1.8
DBPM 2.5 1.4
BPM 3.1 3.2
VORP 3.0 2.5


Damn it, Hank, you're making me do work. I highlighted the advanced stats where Amir has shown a drop off. Primarily defensive and rebounding stats. Also win shares, are a huge drop there. Defensive and rebounding drops are usually a sign of physical decline, and I'm not saying Amir's is huge, because it's not, but it's there.

Also and this is a key point. The 2012/13 stats are with him playing 81 games. I'd be curious to see Amir's numbers at the end of the season as well. Hopefully Casey will manage his minutes properly, but if last years outcome repeats itself then we may see a decline in Amir's play at the end of the season.

[Local_NG_Idiot]

Spoiler:

How do the stats (in particular but not exclusively the advanced stats) from 2, 3 and 4 years ago compare? I'm personally to lazy to dig them up

Excuse me....too lazy to "dig them up"?

Is this 1998?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... sam01.html

There you go.

but I'm willing to bet if you looked at Amir's stats (advanced included and focused on) for the past 5 years you would see a decline.

I'd take that bet because you would be wrong.

His rebounding numbers have dropped off, but as I mentioned, that can partly be explained by the change in frontcourt pairing from Bargnani to Jonas. He takes more shots now, but he hits them at a similar rate. Assists are higher. Steals, blocks and turnovers are pretty consistent. Personal Fouls have come WAYYYYY down from 6.3 per 36 in his first year with Toronto to 4.4 this year.

So, no, there is absolutely no statistical evidence of a decline of any kind.

Also, I can just see it by watching the game, he looks slower and less athletic, still a solid player, but in decline relative to his prime.

So basically, what it comes down to is the "eye test".

Of course, even this is debatable. Perhaps he's not flying around the court like he used to, but you shouldn't confuse movement with effectiveness. In part, he may be moving differently because of his offseason efforts to avoid further ankle injury.

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/09/29/ra ... r-big-deal

Johnson was hobbled by various ankle sprains and strains last season, though he mostly played through everything. The longest-serving Raptor (tied with DeMar DeRozan) said he did not need any off-season ankle surgery and believes he has a better chance at staying healthy all year after going through some advanced sports science in the off-season.

“They broke it down. They stuck light bulbs on me, they have something where you can see your skeleton, the way you jump, run and move,” Johnson said. “They see the way I jump, the way I land. What I do in the game. It could be something as little as the way I turn my foot inward when I slide and it just saves me from rolling my ankle. I’ve been doing that pretty much all summer.”

To me, this makes sense as an explanation why Amir Johnson may SEEM to be less active.

That is why we look to the stats and the outcomes. And when we do that, we see no evidence of decline.

Season 2012-13 2014/2015
G 81 28
PER 17.3 16.3
TS% .591 5.97
3PAr .021 0.87
FTr .309 .223 (down 27.8%)
ORB% 11.4 10.0
DRB% 20.0 15.2 (down 24%)
TRB% 15.6 12.6 (down 19.2%)
AST% 8.7 9.0
STL% 1.8 1.0
BLK% 3.8 2.9 (down 23%)
TOV% 14.5 12.7
USG% 16.1 15.9
OWS 4.4 1.6 (down 63.6%)
DWS 2.9 0.7 (down 75.8%)
WS 7.3 2.3 (down 68.5%)
WS/48 .151 .150
OBPM .7 1.8
DBPM 2.5 1.4
BPM 3.1 3.2
VORP 3.0 2.5


Damn it, Hank, you're making me do work. I highlighted the advanced stats where Amir has shown a drop off. Primarily defensive and rebounding stats. Also win shares, are a huge drop there. Defensive and rebounding drops are usually a sign of physical decline, and I'm not saying Amir's is huge, because it's not, but it's there.

Also and this is a key point. The 2012/13 stats are with him playing 81 games. I'd be curious to see Amir's numbers at the end of the season as well. Hopefully Casey will manage his minutes properly, but if last years outcome repeats itself then we may see a decline in Amir's play at the end of the season.

Win Share stats are a cumulative stat based upon the player's contributing win total against the team's total wins. If you want to compare the stat from year to year, you have to do a WS% ie: players WS / team total wins.

For example:

Amir 13-14 season: 6.3 WS on a 50 win team, so 12.6% win share percentage
Amir 14-15 season: 2.3 WS on a 23 win team (to date), so 9.5% win share percentage

So his WS is down slightly from last year, however WS is also attached to raw numbers like points produced which has a direct relationship with minutes.

[neurotik]

Spoiler:

Excuse me....too lazy to "dig them up"?

Is this 1998?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... sam01.html

There you go.



I'd take that bet because you would be wrong.

His rebounding numbers have dropped off, but as I mentioned, that can partly be explained by the change in frontcourt pairing from Bargnani to Jonas. He takes more shots now, but he hits them at a similar rate. Assists are higher. Steals, blocks and turnovers are pretty consistent. Personal Fouls have come WAYYYYY down from 6.3 per 36 in his first year with Toronto to 4.4 this year.

So, no, there is absolutely no statistical evidence of a decline of any kind.



So basically, what it comes down to is the "eye test".

Of course, even this is debatable. Perhaps he's not flying around the court like he used to, but you shouldn't confuse movement with effectiveness. In part, he may be moving differently because of his offseason efforts to avoid further ankle injury.

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/09/29/ra ... r-big-deal

Johnson was hobbled by various ankle sprains and strains last season, though he mostly played through everything. The longest-serving Raptor (tied with DeMar DeRozan) said he did not need any off-season ankle surgery and believes he has a better chance at staying healthy all year after going through some advanced sports science in the off-season.

“They broke it down. They stuck light bulbs on me, they have something where you can see your skeleton, the way you jump, run and move,” Johnson said. “They see the way I jump, the way I land. What I do in the game. It could be something as little as the way I turn my foot inward when I slide and it just saves me from rolling my ankle. I’ve been doing that pretty much all summer.”

To me, this makes sense as an explanation why Amir Johnson may SEEM to be less active.

That is why we look to the stats and the outcomes. And when we do that, we see no evidence of decline.

Season 2012-13 2014/2015
G 81 28
PER 17.3 16.3
TS% .591 5.97
3PAr .021 0.87
FTr .309 .223 (down 27.8%)
ORB% 11.4 10.0
DRB% 20.0 15.2 (down 24%)
TRB% 15.6 12.6 (down 19.2%)
AST% 8.7 9.0
STL% 1.8 1.0
BLK% 3.8 2.9 (down 23%)
TOV% 14.5 12.7
USG% 16.1 15.9
OWS 4.4 1.6 (down 63.6%)
DWS 2.9 0.7 (down 75.8%)
WS 7.3 2.3 (down 68.5%)
WS/48 .151 .150
OBPM .7 1.8
DBPM 2.5 1.4
BPM 3.1 3.2
VORP 3.0 2.5


Damn it, Hank, you're making me do work. I highlighted the advanced stats where Amir has shown a drop off. Primarily defensive and rebounding stats. Also win shares, are a huge drop there. Defensive and rebounding drops are usually a sign of physical decline, and I'm not saying Amir's is huge, because it's not, but it's there.

Also and this is a key point. The 2012/13 stats are with him playing 81 games. I'd be curious to see Amir's numbers at the end of the season as well. Hopefully Casey will manage his minutes properly, but if last years outcome repeats itself then we may see a decline in Amir's play at the end of the season.

Win Share stats are a cumulative stat based upon the player's contributing win total against the team's total wins. If you want to compare the stat from year to year, you have to do a WS% ie: players WS / team total wins.

For example:

Amir 13-14 season: 6.3 WS on a 50 win team, so 12.6% win share percentage
Amir 14-15 season: 2.3 WS on a 23 win team (to date), so 9.5% win share percentage

So his WS is down slightly from last year, however WS is also attached to raw numbers like points produced which has a direct relationship with minutes.

Fair enough, though that's still a 25% drop.

Also I want to go on the record as stating that I am not a guy who understands all the formulas behind advanced stats like some posters on this board. I understand that advanced stats are a more accurate way of measuring a players production, effectiveness and efficiency and I am using them because I know that if I say "when I watch Amir on my t.v. (well computer because I stream the games) he doesn't look as fast and agile, and he looks less athletic and physically declining" people will say that has zero credibility and toss numbers at me.

[OakleyDokely]

the big amirstotle

sign him for life