Draft misses..the main difference between Winners and Losers

[Southpaw]

Player development is equally important as getting the pick right. Danny Green is a good example of this.

[winter_mute_13]

People underestimate how much player development staffs play too

You know there's this whole thing after drafting players right? It's called developing, drafting them is only half the battle.

Yes and yes.

[Kabookalu]

Player development is equally important as getting the pick right. Danny Green is a good example of this.

I think player developmental staffs get overrated in cases like this. Danny Green was originally cut by the Spurs, and then they signed him again when he got better at the things they asked him to be better in.

I think the Spurs have a great staff and they did an exemplary job with Kawhi Leonard, but most of the time it's really on the player himself if he wants to be the best he possibly can be.

[The Infamous1]

It's about luck. Some teams get lucky and get in position to draft trancendent talents like lebron, Tim Duncan, or Bird and other teams draft guys like Kwame brown and Anthony Bennett.

[rumdiary]

In the run up to the 2014 Draft I analysed every drafts Top 12 picks since 1998 and I came across two absolute certainties:

1. Do not draft offensively underskilled big-men in the Top 10 unless they have freakish athleticism or length, like Dwight, Yao or Blake Griffin.
2. Do not draft white guys in the Top 10.

As a white guy, I would follow these rules if I were a GM. They held true for every single draft.

[DrCoach]

In the run up to the 2014 Draft I analysed every drafts Top 12 picks since 1998 and I came across two absolute certainties:

1. Do not draft offensively underskilled big-men in the Top 10 unless they have freakish athleticism or length, like Dwight, Yao or Blake Griffin.
2. Do not draft white guys in the Top 10.

As a white guy, I would follow these rules if I were a GM. They held true for every single draft.

So you would have drafted Thabeet? Stromile Swift? Tyrus Thomas?

You would not have drafted Kevin Love? Gordon Hayward?

[Prokorov]

Kings continue to be bad. Why, because they passed on Liliard for pretty much a bust. They drafted Jimmer...who was a bust....
Warriors sucked for the lonnnnnnngest of time...drafting Dunleavy with the 3rd pick....Joe Smith with 1st pick....on and on....UNTIL...they drafted Curry, Klay, Draymond, Barnes, Ezeli...actually hitting on the right picks finally.

The point is that everyone makes it seem so complex to build a team when the truth is it's all about a GM that knows how to target talent and draft smart for three years is a row.

Look at Wolves....drafted THREE point guards one year in the draft with Curry and non of them were Curry lol.

So if you are a fan of a bad team right now, unless it's big time injuries, look no further than your GM. Odds are he sucks at drafting players.

it isnt easy drafting players... especially now when no one goes to college for 4 years and there is so much uncertainty with foreign players. It isnt just GM's not being good talent evaluators. its being a GM in an era where all the top prospects are 19 year old athletes and foreign players.

Gone are the days where you get the first pick and a polished Pat Ewing or Tim Duncan is there.

Also, you say to build a team you have to draft smart 3 years in a row... you say this like it is easy if the GM knows what he is doing. but it is so much more complex then that

1) you have to be bad for 3 years
2) you have to be lucky in the draft lottery (which has been very unkind to bad teams historically)
3) you have to be in 3 consecutive drafts where there is decent talent

drafting well 3 years in a row sounds good until you hit a draft like the anthony bennet year, or the kenyon martin year. then what do you do? look at the thunder for example...

was there GM smart or did he just get lucky?

the durant year they were lucky enough to get the #2 pick instead of the #1 pick so that they got durant instead of oden

then the were lucky enough to be bad enough and lucky enough in the lotto to get high picks AND to be in drafts where there was superstar talent.

you look at cleveland... yes, they drafted poorly, but even the best case of cleveland who do they end up with?

Kyrie, Valancuinas, and Noel?

is that a superstar trio?

The draft is like 80% luck(out tanking, out ping pong balling, being in a draft with talent) and 20% evaluation

[Prokorov]

That's why I've always thought Sam Presti should be given more credit for drafting Harden and Westbrook. They were far from consensus picks. Westbrook was overshadowed by Collison and Love at UCLA and players like Love and Gordon were much more hyped up than he was with. Same with Harden. Tyreke Evans and Ricky Rubio were getting much more pub coming into the draft than Harden was. Of course Harden is gone now but that was a brilliant draft decision by Presti. If OKC had made different selections in those two drafts, they never would have made the finals in 2011 and had all the success that they've had.

what you are overlooking though is that both of those drafts had a ton of talent....

if OKC drafted love and Rubio instead of westbrook and harden does anything change? Durant is really what mattered and Love is a top 10 player.

Durant/Rubio/Love is probably going to get you to the WCF/Finals just as well or at the very least give you 2 superstars.

Now, lets say instead of the Westbrook draft, they had a pick in the anthony bennett draft. who do they take then and how does that look, even if they draft smart?

[Prokorov]

I absolutely agree. Drafting is and probably always will be the most important way to succeed in the NBA. Let's look at the starting lineups or so of the playoff teams in the NBA.



Warriors: Drafted Curry, Drafted Thompson, Drafted Draymond Green. All at very favorable draft positions, I might add.
Blazers: Drafted Aldridge, Drafted Lillard, Drafted Batum
Thunder: Drafted Durant, Drafted Westbrook, Drafted Ibaka, Drafted Adams
Rockets: OK it's not ALWAYS the most important way to succeed. they did draft jones and motiejunas!
Grizzlies: Drafted Conley, at least. Quasi-drafted Gasol, in their hearts.
Spurs: Drafted Duncan, Parker, Leonard, Ginobili
Clippers: Drafted Griffin, Drafted Jordan
Mavericks: Drafted Dirk.
Pelicans? Drafted Anthony Davis
Phoenix? OK they've done a good job outside the draft lately

In the East;

Bulls: Drafted Noah, Drafted Rose, Drafted Butler, Drafted Mirotic, Drafted Gibson
Cavs: Drafted Lebron (might not count), Drafted Irving, Drafted Waiters/Thompson
Raptors: Drafted Derozan & Valanciunas and Ross
Atlanta: Drafted Horford, Drafted Teague
Washington: Drafted Wall, Drafted Beal
Milwaukee (I KNOW?!?!?): Drafted Sanders, Drafted Giannis
Pacers (special mention): Drafted Paul George & Roy Hibbert


So on like 84% of these teams, they drafted their best or second best player.

Drafting is the most important way to succeed in the NBA.

This is SO biased

1) no mention of Chris Paul for the clippers?
2) no mention of Kyle Lowry for the Raptors?
3) no mention of Gortat, Nene, Pierce(ariza last year) for the wizards?
4) no mention of the nets at all who are a playoff team(dwill, johnson)
5) no mention of the miami heat, a playoff team(bosh, deng)

the real way to win the NBA is simple: get a top 12 player. doesnt matter how, it happens equally in all 3 aspects(draft/trade/FA)

sometimes you draft them: Curry, Duncan, Dirk, Rose, durant
soemtimes you dont: Lebron, Harden/Dwight, Paul, Gasol

[Prokorov]

The point is that everyone makes it seem so complex to build a team when the truth is it's all about a GM that knows how to target talent and draft smart for three years is a row.

I'm sure most of these million dollar executives would throw you some money if you can teach him how to simplify things.

Then why are they million dollar executives in the first place?
Look up Chad Ford's analysis, get a monkey, let him throws some darts, and you'll probably be better off than with these million dollar executives.
One thing I can tell you for sure. They completely suck at evaluating foreign talent, and that's about 25% of the entire NBA talent pool.

1) chad fords record isn't any better then most GM's. I wouldnt use him as an example

2) evaluating foreign talent is extremely hard. you are talking about over 160 countries and kids as young as 16 playing with men as old as 40. and the best talent around the world rarely play eachother.

you say "foreign players" as if they all play in the same league, like how all college players play in the NCAA. how do you evaluate a 17 year old in venezuela vs. a 24 year old in bosnia vs. a 20 year old in austrailia who play in 3 leagues all of very different quality and who have never played eachother.... oh yea, and some of those guys playing in less then 20 games before you need to make a decision on them.

[Prokorov]

cavs wasted two first first round picks in a row. That is criminal.

did they waste them or was there no talent in those drafts?

its not like they got their choice of carmello/lebron/darko and took darko. even the best choice in those 2 years doesnt land them any kind of special talent

[Wigginstime]

The problem with drafting is there are effectively 6 types you draft- only one of which is a safe bet:

1. The elite total package college player. Barring injury the typically succeed. They typically go top 3 which is why people value top 3 picks so much

2. The unskilled athletic freak.

3. The talented yet very unathletic player.

4. Undersized bigs who will have to switch position to succeed in the NBA. This is the college superstar center who is only 6'8".

5. Young players with "promise". This isn't as big of a concern now that teams aren't drafting high school players but you still have issues drafting college freshman who show tremendous promise but lack an overall game.

6. Foreign players - Much easier to draft now give the advancements in international basketball but it can still be extremely difficult to evaluate talent.

Types 2 through 6 are usually a complete gamble on how well they will adapt to the NBA and how much improvement they will make.

[rumdiary]

In the run up to the 2014 Draft I analysed every drafts Top 12 picks since 1998 and I came across two absolute certainties:

1. Do not draft offensively underskilled big-men in the Top 10 unless they have freakish athleticism or length, like Dwight, Yao or Blake Griffin.
2. Do not draft white guys in the Top 10.

As a white guy, I would follow these rules if I were a GM. They held true for every single draft.

So you would have drafted Thabeet? Stromile Swift? Tyrus Thomas?

You would not have drafted Kevin Love? Gordon Hayward?

Absolutely.

[Deus]

Drafting is timing, research(obviously), and lucky pin-balls. Plenty of teams have gotten the pin-balls but for the 2002 or 2005 seasons when Yao Ming and Andrew Bogut were the #1 picks instead of Lebron and Dwight.

[Zion Wembanyama]

Or if you continue to trade away 1st rd picks in short-sighted deals.

- I.E., NOP '15 1st for Asik - When FA comes around... I'd prefer the rookie over paying Asik and undersering 10+ mil per.
- I've grown on Holiday being with us, after being one of the most opposed to the trade. Do I rather have Saric and Noel? TBD.
- We traded a 2011 pick, which turned out to be Tobias Harris.. he'd be our best SF and could at least be involved in a trade to get us a better fit on the wing, if we had him.

[jpengland]

Too many variables to pinpoint blame in terms of draft selections.

Luck and 'fit' play such a huge part.

[skywalker33]

I absolutely agree. Drafting is and probably always will be the most important way to succeed in the NBA. Let's look at the starting lineups or so of the playoff teams in the NBA.



Warriors: Drafted Curry, Drafted Thompson, Drafted Draymond Green. All at very favorable draft positions, I might add.
Blazers: Drafted Aldridge, Drafted Lillard, Drafted Batum
Thunder: Drafted Durant, Drafted Westbrook, Drafted Ibaka, Drafted Adams
Rockets: OK it's not ALWAYS the most important way to succeed. they did draft jones and motiejunas!
Grizzlies: Drafted Conley, at least. Quasi-drafted Gasol, in their hearts.
Spurs: Drafted Duncan, Parker, Leonard, Ginobili
Clippers: Drafted Griffin, Drafted Jordan
Mavericks: Drafted Dirk.
Pelicans? Drafted Anthony Davis
Phoenix? OK they've done a good job outside the draft lately

In the East;

Bulls: Drafted Noah, Drafted Rose, Drafted Butler, Drafted Mirotic, Drafted Gibson
Cavs: Drafted Lebron (might not count), Drafted Irving, Drafted Waiters/Thompson
Raptors: Drafted Derozan & Valanciunas and Ross
Atlanta: Drafted Horford, Drafted Teague
Washington: Drafted Wall, Drafted Beal
Milwaukee (I KNOW?!?!?): Drafted Sanders, Drafted Giannis
Pacers (special mention): Drafted Paul George & Roy Hibbert


So on like 84% of these teams, they drafted their best or second best player.

Drafting is the most important way to succeed in the NBA.

Please note 90-95% of those players were drafted top 10, so not only drafting well, but drafting high seems the key

[mattg]

I absolutely agree. Drafting is and probably always will be the most important way to succeed in the NBA. Let's look at the starting lineups or so of the playoff teams in the NBA.



Warriors: Drafted Curry, Drafted Thompson, Drafted Draymond Green. All at very favorable draft positions, I might add.
Blazers: Drafted Aldridge, Drafted Lillard, Drafted Batum
Thunder: Drafted Durant, Drafted Westbrook, Drafted Ibaka, Drafted Adams
Rockets: OK it's not ALWAYS the most important way to succeed. they did draft jones and motiejunas!
Grizzlies: Drafted Conley, at least. Quasi-drafted Gasol, in their hearts.
Spurs: Drafted Duncan, Parker, Leonard, Ginobili
Clippers: Drafted Griffin, Drafted Jordan
Mavericks: Drafted Dirk.
Pelicans? Drafted Anthony Davis
Phoenix? OK they've done a good job outside the draft lately

In the East;

Bulls: Drafted Noah, Drafted Rose, Drafted Butler, Drafted Mirotic, Drafted Gibson
Cavs: Drafted Lebron (might not count), Drafted Irving, Drafted Waiters/Thompson
Raptors: Drafted Derozan & Valanciunas and Ross
Atlanta: Drafted Horford, Drafted Teague
Washington: Drafted Wall, Drafted Beal
Milwaukee (I KNOW?!?!?): Drafted Sanders, Drafted Giannis
Pacers (special mention): Drafted Paul George & Roy Hibbert


So on like 84% of these teams, they drafted their best or second best player.

Drafting is the most important way to succeed in the NBA.

This is SO biased

1) no mention of Chris Paul for the clippers?
2) no mention of Kyle Lowry for the Raptors?
3) no mention of Gortat, Nene, Pierce(ariza last year) for the wizards?
4) no mention of the nets at all who are a playoff team(dwill, johnson)
5) no mention of the miami heat, a playoff team(bosh, deng)

the real way to win the NBA is simple: get a top 12 player. doesnt matter how, it happens equally in all 3 aspects(draft/trade/FA)

sometimes you draft them: Curry, Duncan, Dirk, Rose, durant
soemtimes you dont: Lebron, Harden/Dwight, Paul, Gasol

You are failing to recognize that trading for/FA to acquire a top 12 player simply isn't a legitimate option for the vast majority of the league. No top 10 guy is just going to sign with a Milwaukee as a FA like how top FAs want to go to the lakers/heat/bulls/ny teams. It just isn't a realistic way to a build a team for a small market. Drafting in the top 5 is the most sure fire way to acquire a top tier player and it's blatantly obvious if you look at all nba teams and all star selections and where those guys were drafted. Like all the guys you mention as acquired through trade/FA were top 4 draft selections that spent significant time (aside from harden only playing 3 years with OKC I guess) on their original teams. Then look at the teams they ended up on after that: Miami, Houston, LAC, LAL. So yeah if you're a big market/desirable location then you can reliably sign and trade for star players, but that's not the reality for 75% of the nba.

[Scalabrine]

Right now it seems like the only player that our previous GM Danny Ferry found via the draft is Dennis Schröder. All his other selections have been useless. Looking back, I still cringe thinking that the Hawks could have had freaking CP3 but elected to take Marvin Williams..

Especially considering they desperately needed a point guard after signing johnson and drafting Sheldon williams josh smith and josh Childress the years before.


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[The Rebel]

Right now it seems like the only player that our previous GM Danny Ferry found via the draft is Dennis Schröder. All his other selections have been useless. Looking back, I still cringe thinking that the Hawks could have had freaking CP3 but elected to take Marvin Williams..

Danny Ferry was only the Atlanta GM since June of 2012, he only drafted 2 guys for the Hawks and Shroeder was by far the highest pick he drafted both for the Cavs and the Hawks.