Draft misses..the main difference between Winners and Losers

[hands11]

Through bad drafting and mis-managment, this could have been a realistic Timberwolves roster.

PG: Rubio
SG: Curry- Drafted Flynn instead.
SF: Parsons- Traded his rights away.
PF: Love
C: Cousins- Drafted Johnson one spot ahead of Cousins.

Bench:
Ty Lawson- Traded for a future first that eventually turned into Martell Webster.
Nikola Mirotic- Traded his rights basically for Malcolm Lee.
Pekovic
Muhammed
Dieng
Lavine

As far as that particular draft went in 2009, there were a few things to be factored in:

1) Stephen Curry had pretty much let them know that he would not come and play in Minnesota and Kahn probably didn't want a Steve Francis part 2 happen. Drafting Flynn though was a complete joke and I thought that drafting Demar Derozan would have been smarter since he's a pretty solid 2 guard. Pretty dumb draft on his part.

2) Hindsight is 20/20 especially when it comes to second rounders and the draft in general. Anything can happen from draft night. The team drafting has to be able to have a solid player development staff that can help the players grow although sometimes it can be the fault of the player not coming through.

I will admit this: How the hell did Kahn get hired in the first place? That's pretty bad I will admit plus sometimes that's a problem with perennial losers in the draft: They end up making poor decisions and are generally incompetent. In the end, even with that supposed lineup, the Timberwolves would have found a way to screw it up.

Its simple. If your team sucks over a long period of time, look no further then the owner. There is your problem. And since that is the least likely thing to change about your team, sorry to bring the bad news but, you might want to lower your expectations until ownership changes or they change something in a meaningful way and stick to it. Probably best to find another team to follow even if you keep and eye on your home team. Being a WAS Bullets/Wizards fan, I had to do with so I followed the Bulls. DET had a tone of X Bullet/Wizards so I followed them as well. Loved Bird and Magic so I followed those teams as well.

NY is a good example. They have sucked because of their owner. Now he has done something meaningful. If he sticks to it, NY fans can be hopeful for the future.

Washington Redskins. Revolving door of suck because of Dan Synder. Look no further then that. He had Marty Schottenheimer playing Phil Percells one year. Had he stuck with Marty, the Redskins would have returned as a winning franchise a long time ago. He was there in 2001. Here we are 14 years later and they franchise is still a mess. Look no further then the owner.

[The Rebel]

Through bad drafting and mis-managment, this could have been a realistic Timberwolves roster.

PG: Rubio
SG: Curry- Drafted Flynn instead.
SF: Parsons- Traded his rights away.
PF: Love
C: Cousins- Drafted Johnson one spot ahead of Cousins.

Bench:
Ty Lawson- Traded for a future first that eventually turned into Martell Webster.
Nikola Mirotic- Traded his rights basically for Malcolm Lee.
Pekovic
Muhammed
Dieng
Lavine

As far as that particular draft went in 2009, there were a few things to be factored in:

1) Stephen Curry had pretty much let them know that he would not come and play in Minnesota and Kahn probably didn't want a Steve Francis part 2 happen. Drafting Flynn though was a complete joke and I thought that drafting Demar Derozan would have been smarter since he's a pretty solid 2 guard. Pretty dumb draft on his part.

2) Hindsight is 20/20 especially when it comes to second rounders and the draft in general. Anything can happen from draft night. The team drafting has to be able to have a solid player development staff that can help the players grow although sometimes it can be the fault of the player not coming through.

I will admit this: How the hell did Kahn get hired in the first place? That's pretty bad I will admit plus sometimes that's a problem with perennial losers in the draft: They end up making poor decisions and are generally incompetent. In the end, even with that supposed lineup, the Timberwolves would have found a way to screw it up.

It is easy to say that Kahn screwed up that draft and should have taken derozan, but that is using hindsight over 5 years down the road. Fact is for all the crap the Flynn pick gets he was a highly thought of prospect, fact is even experts called his floor a good backup PG but thought his ceiling was near star potential. His rookie year he put up very good numbers for a 6th overall pick and looked like he was going to be a long term starter, then he blew out his hip. That is the part everybody ignores, he had a major injury that ruined his career.

Also the Lawson pick was a Nuggets pick the whole way, the deal was prearranged long enough before the draft that I knew about it, the Wolves did not want to bring in any more rookies and thought a future pick would hold more value.


Also you cannot count who could have been drafted at your picks based on multiple years, if you get a good player the 1st year you will not get the same picks the next year, or the year after.

[Shurs]

Through bad drafting and mis-managment, this could have been a realistic Timberwolves roster.

PG: Rubio
SG: Curry- Drafted Flynn instead.
SF: Parsons- Traded his rights away.
PF: Love
C: Cousins- Drafted Johnson one spot ahead of Cousins.

Bench:
Ty Lawson- Traded for a future first that eventually turned into Martell Webster.
Nikola Mirotic- Traded his rights basically for Malcolm Lee.
Pekovic
Muhammed
Dieng
Lavine

This is not realistic at all. You're assuming, despite the better roster, the Timberwolves would be drafting in the same draft slots they had been.

That doesn't make sense.

[PDX MM]

Even if you are the best at scouting, drafting, player development, roster management, and coaching there is still plenty of luck involved. Being poor in one or more of those areas is how you end up a lotto team year after year. As a Blazer fan it still surprises me just how quickly we were able to recover from losing high draft picks in Oden and Roy.

[HawaiianJazzFan]

[quote="rumdiary"]In the run up to the 2014 Draft I analysed every drafts Top 12 picks since 1998 and I came across two absolute certainties:

1. Do not draft offensively underskilled big-men in the Top 10 unless they have freakish athleticism or length, like Dwight, Yao or Blake Griffin.
2. Do not draft white guys in the Top 10.

As a white guy, I would follow these rules if I were a GM. They held true for every single draft.[/quote]


Do you know what the ratio is of black players drafted to black players that were busts, and the same for white players?? I mean, obviously, there are way, way, way fewer white people who are drafted in the top 10, so there are way, way, way fewer that need to pan out in order to keep the same ratio.
I mean in 98 you had Raef, Jason Williams, and Dirk... none of whom were complete busts (especially considering tractor and Kandi were picked in the top 10). In 99 only Szcerbiak was in the top 10 and he was an all star (picked behind Bender). In 00 you had Mike Miller, Mihm, and Pryzbilla who all had solid careers in a draft that only produced 2 All stars. Other picks in the top 10 of that draft included, Stromile Swift, Marcus Fizer, Demarr Johnson. Certainly those 3 had better careers than the later 3. In 2001 the only white guy picked was Pau Gasol, obviously not a mistake. In 2002 you had (first legitimate no question bust) Tskitishvili and Mike Dunleavy Jr (solid player certainly had a better career than Dajuan Wagner, Jay Williams, and Wilcox all in top 10 that year). 2003 you had Darko (obvious bust), Kaman (all star), and Hinrich. This one stands out because of who was picked after Darko, but Kaman and Hinrich have both had as good as careers as anyone picked behind them (Jarvis Hayes, Michael Sweetney, and TJ Ford all picked in top 10). 2004 you have Luke Jackson, who was a bust picked at number 10 and the worst of the ten in that group. 2005 you had Bogut only white guy in the top 10, obviously not a bust (other in top 10 include Marvin Williams, Webster, Villanueva, Frye, Diogu). 2006 you had Bargnani (bust at number 1) and Adam Morrison (bust at no 3) other's picked in that top ten (sene, O'bryant, Shelden). In 2007 only Spencer Hawes at number 10 was picked, which is solid value for where he was picked (picked behind Yi, Brewer). In 2008 you have Danilo Gallinari (decent pick for where he was drafted, certainly better than Gordon, Augustin, Bease, who were picked in top 10) and Joe Alexander (bust). In 2009 only Ricky Rubio was picked in top 10 (solid pick, others picked in top 10 include: Thabeet, Flynn, Hill, Evans). In 2010, only Gordon Hayward was picked at 9 EXCELLENT value (after Turner, Wesley, Ekpe, and Aminu). In 2011, Valanciunas (excellent pick, picked after Dwill and Tristan) Jan Vesely (bust), and Fredette (bust). In 2012 no white guys picked in top 10. It's too soon to analyze anything after that.

So these are the white guys who were picked in the top 10 since 98:
Raef Lafrentz (decent value and career better than Olowakandi)
Jason Williams (better than Tractor)
Dirk Nowitzki (HOF)
Szcerbiak (all star, good value where picked right after Bender)
Mike Miller (ROY)
Pryzbilla (decent player in horrible draft that had Swift, Fizer, Demarr in top 10)
Mihm (ok player in terrible draft that had Swift, Fizer, and Demarr in top 10)
Pau Gasol (future HOF)
Tskitishvili (bust)
Dunleavy Jr (solid pick better than Dajuan Wagner, Jay Williams, Wilcox all picked in top 10)
Darko (Massive bust)
Kaman (all star excellent value as Jarvis, Sweetney, Ford picked in top 10)
Hinrich (good value as Jarvis Sweetney, Ford picked in top 10)
Luke Jackson (bust)
Bogut (decent pick in a top 10 that had Marv, Webster, Villanueva, Frye, Diogu)
Bargnani (bust)
Adam Morrison (bust)
Spencer Hawes (solid value and picked behind Yi and Brewer)
Danilo Gallinari (decent pick in a top 10 that included Gordon, Augustin, Beasely)
Joe Alexander (bust)
Ricky Rubio (solid pick considering, Thabeet, Flynn, Hill, Evans all picked in top 10)
Gordon Hayward (Excellent value pick as he was picked after Turner, Wesley, Ekpe, and AMinu)
Valanciunas (excellent value as he was picked after Dwill and Tristan)
Vesely (bust)
Fredette (bust)

That is 15 years of top 10 picks or 150 picks. 25 picks in 150 have been white guys or 16.66% which is a very small amount. 8 of those picks have been clear busts or 32 percent. 4 have been all stars or better or 16 percent, and more often than not despite your comment that white guys being bad picks "held true for every single draft." they have mostly been great value for where they were picked and were picked after some major busts. [b]It actually looks like if there is a prospect who is white in the top 10, you'd have better odds that they would be a solid player [/b]than not because of how few white prospects there are.

Lastly, in case you were thinking I am biased. I am not. I am mixed Hawaiian (Dole plantations, property taxes, taking away land, imprisoning our Queen etc.) and Navajo (Small Pox, Indian Extermination act, reservations, etc.)

[TaylorMonkey]

Through bad drafting and mis-managment, this could have been a realistic Timberwolves roster.

PG: Rubio
SG: Curry- Drafted Flynn instead.
SF: Parsons- Traded his rights away.
PF: Love
C: Cousins- Drafted Johnson one spot ahead of Cousins.

Bench:
Ty Lawson- Traded for a future first that eventually turned into Martell Webster.
Nikola Mirotic- Traded his rights basically for Malcolm Lee.
Pekovic
Muhammed
Dieng
Lavine

As far as that particular draft went in 2009, there were a few things to be factored in:

1) Stephen Curry had pretty much let them know that he would not come and play in Minnesota and Kahn probably didn't want a Steve Francis part 2 happen. Drafting Flynn though was a complete joke and I thought that drafting Demar Derozan would have been smarter since he's a pretty solid 2 guard. Pretty dumb draft on his part.

2) Hindsight is 20/20 especially when it comes to second rounders and the draft in general. Anything can happen from draft night. The team drafting has to be able to have a solid player development staff that can help the players grow although sometimes it can be the fault of the player not coming through.

I will admit this: How the hell did Kahn get hired in the first place? That's pretty bad I will admit plus sometimes that's a problem with perennial losers in the draft: They end up making poor decisions and are generally incompetent. In the end, even with that supposed lineup, the Timberwolves would have found a way to screw it up.

Curry's agent also told GSW he had no interest in playing or working out for them and did everything to make him as unappealing to the Warriors as possible in trying to get him to NY.

Fortunately Riley/Nelson didn't care and drafted him anyway.

[King Ken]

Right now it seems like the only player that our previous GM Danny Ferry found via the draft is Dennis Schröder. All his other selections have been useless. Looking back, I still cringe thinking that the Hawks could have had freaking CP3 but elected to take Marvin Williams..

He's great with the 2nd rounders. (Scott, Muscala and Edy) but he doesn't do well in the 1st round. Dennis was the best pick we have made since Teague.

[HotelVitale]

GMs mess up drafts because they either can't project superior athletes' who have raw skills or they are scared to select raw skills. Many high draft busts are guys who don't project physically, but are good college "name" players...
That's why Masai and Presti are the best drafters right now. They don't pick names or college stat sheets, they know how to project raw skills and athleticism.

Both of those types do much better or worse than expected ALL the time. Just off the top of my head, these 'raw athletes' have busted in the last 6-7 years: Tyrus Thomas, Sene, Biyombo, Joe Alexander, Jordan Hill, Udoh, Aminu, Vesely. And there are many players who were stars in college who were overlooked for superior athletes: Boozer, Millsap, Ty Lawson, I Thomas, Draymond Green, Faried, Monroe, Sullinger, George Hill, Kemba Walker, etc. (Also, Sean May was a very promising pro who had severe knee injuries that cut his career before it started, had a PER over 19 his second year before getting injured midseason.) The NBA is about both skill and athleticism, and it's really hard to tell who's going to adapt what to the league. The entire argument for Steph Curry was the same as for Jimmer or others: he's small and doesn't look the part, but he can game plain and simple and he'll figure it out. Some guys do figure it out and you look like a fool for doubting them, some don't and you look brilliant for passing them up.

Also, teams don't just look up college stats and call it a day. Everyone differentiates very very carefully what star NCAA players can do in college vs. the pros, and they 100% project them as pros. For instance, JJ Redick was a superduperstar in college because of his shooting, but everyone knew he was going to struggle to shoot against superior athletes. No one thought he would ever be a 20 pt scorer, but people were betting he'd become a dangerous shooter who could also create a little bit (like Stauskas this year). Kawhi was a college star who impacted the game solely with hustle and energy, but teams were split on whether or not he could develop a shot and drive against NBA athletes. He fell because no one was sure what he could do.

[HotelVitale]

Only tangentially related to the topic: But, I've always felt the main difference between the winning and losing draft picks for the Jazz has resolved upon mental traits.
If the Jazz are going to bust on a pick, it's usually because the player isnt' right between the ears.

Getting your body to do highly skilled things at very high speeds and at the exact right pace isn't about being 'smart' or 'sane.' I don't think there's any real way to predict how well players will adapt to these things without seeing them do it. D Rose doesn't seem particularly smart and he can have a pretty bad attitude, but he adapted his mind and body nearly perfectly to the league, mastering everything about the game in three years (until the injuries knocked him off). Cousins has his issues and still seems confused a lot on the court, but he really knows how to play. He seems more troubled than Beasley, but Beasley never figured out how to change his game up and do something aside from drive hard left and pull up from midrange. Never developed countermoves and change of direction stuff, never mastered a floater or drawing contact, never figured out when to pass, etc.

Point is: players get dropped or raised many draft positions because of 'intangibles' and sometimes those things are right (Cousins does have emotional problems and that's him focus in his career). But the sort of basketball/body intelligence necessary to adapt to a NBA game isn't about being smart in a conventional sense.

Certain skills translate to the NBA from college. Rebounding translates big time, just look at guys like Paul Millsap and Carl Landry.

Funny, neither of those guys was a very good rebounder at their peak. In Landry's peak in Houston, he only averaged about 7-8 rebounds per 36, which is below average for PFs. And Millsap is currently at his peak and he's only at 8.5 boards per 36.

Actually, looking more closely, that stat does not translate very well (the list of top-10 rebounders includes lots of guys who aren't particularly good or aren't good rebounders in the NBA). I think it's fairer to say that un-heralded guys who rebound at crazy rates in college tend to exceed expectations in the pros. That might be more related to motor and hustle, though.

[King Ken]

Right now it seems like the only player that our previous GM Danny Ferry found via the draft is Dennis Schröder. All his other selections have been useless. Looking back, I still cringe thinking that the Hawks could have had freaking CP3 but elected to take Marvin Williams..

Danny Ferry was only the Atlanta GM since June of 2012, he only drafted 2 guys for the Hawks and Shroeder was by far the highest pick he drafted both for the Cavs and the Hawks.

Four first rounders. He drafted John Jenkins.
Bebe
Jenkins
Dennis
and Payne.

[cdubbz]

Kings continue to be bad. Why, because they passed on Liliard for pretty much a bust. They drafted Jimmer...who was a bust....
Warriors sucked for the lonnnnnnngest of time...drafting Dunleavy with the 3rd pick....Joe Smith with 1st pick....on and on....UNTIL...they drafted Curry, Klay, Draymond, Barnes, Ezeli...actually hitting on the right picks finally.

The point is that everyone makes it seem so complex to build a team when the truth is it's all about a GM that knows how to target talent and draft smart for three years is a row.

Look at Wolves....drafted THREE point guards one year in the draft with Curry and non of them were Curry lol.

So if you are a fan of a bad team right now, unless it's big time injuries, look no further than your GM. Odds are he sucks at drafting players.

Just to clarify....As a Warrior fans the draft selection of Joe Smith and Dunleavy were what MOST teams would have done. Joe Smith had a solid career at Maryland and had a good first few seasons with the Warriors -- it was a loaded big man draft with Rasheed Wallace, Antonio Mcdyess, and Kevin Garnett falling behind him. Dunleavy was behind Yao Ming and Jason Williams...Amare Stoudemire was the stud drafted behind him.

But to your point of the thread -- drafting is HIT OR MISS. You can draft on potential and what the player has actually done in college, but everything else seems to be a mystery.

[cdubbz]

What i think messes up a lot of NBA GMs and scouts is that college basketball is SO MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE NBA. I don't get it and i hate it. They play a slower game: 35second shot clock, 3 point line is way shorter: can't tell the real shooters are, the paint is smaller, rarely see good post up play because of clogged areas between paint and 3point line. With more athletic kids in college the NCAA needs to adapt closer to NBA rules.

College basketball is a joke.

[OhioGuy216]

I wonder if anybody has touched on the fact that nobody can predict the work ethic of someone who is an overnight millionaire. Some will be inspired to do more, others...not so much.