Voting Nance
The guys with 11+ seasons of WS/48 at or above .144 (which was a touch over 2000 player seasons when I compiled this, I think a couple of summers ago)
Seasons above .144 win shares wrote:Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 18
John Stockton 18
Karl Malone 17
Tim Duncan 16
Reggie Miller 16
Shaquille O'Neal 15
Charles Barkley 15
Hakeem Olajuwon 15
Kevin Garnett 14
Kobe Bryant 14
Wilt Chamberlain 13
David Robinson 13
Dirk Nowitzki 13
Oscar Robertson 13
Moses Malone 13
Paul Pierce 13
Robert Parish 13
Bill Russell 12
Earvin "Magic" Johnson 12
Jerry West 12
Adrian Dantley 12
Ray Allen 12
Michael Jordan 11
Larry Bird 11
Bob Pettit 11
Bob Lanier 11
Larry Nance 11
Steve Nash 11
Bailey Howell 11
Detlef Schrempf 11
These players are almost all in. Those that aren't should be in contention soon (Schrempf and Howell).
The equivalent top 2000(ish) player seasons for PER
Seasons above 17.9 PER wrote:Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 18
John Stockton 17
Karl Malone 17
Shaquille O'Neal 17
Kevin Garnett 17
Tim Duncan 16
Hakeem Olajuwon 16
Kobe Bryant 16
Moses Malone 16
Charles Barkley 15
Paul Pierce 14
Clyde Drexler 14
Wilt Chamberlain 13
Dirk Nowitzki 13
Robert Parish 13
Michael Jordan 13
David Robinson 12
Oscar Robertson 12
Earvin "Magic" Johnson 12
Jerry West 12
Larry Bird 12
Steve Nash 12
Patrick Ewing 12
Dominique Wilkins 12
Allen Iverson 12
Adrian Dantley 11
Bob Pettit 11
Bob Lanier 11
Larry Nance 11
Pau Gasol 11
Elgin Baylor 11
Vince Carter 11
Chris Webber 11
Alex English 11
All in bar Webber. Webber has only 5 seasons over the WS/48 bar. Howell has 10 over the PER bar, Schrempf 7.
But what if those seasons were just above the thresholds. Lets have a look at how some of the leading box-score productive guys plus other named contenders (this from a few threads ago, Sam Jones, McAdoo, Grant Hill, Moncrief, Unseld and King since in) get on with a measure which rewards both minutes and distance above those thresholds, lets call it Wins Above Good
WS-WAG wrote:Neil Johnston 37.50535
Bailey Howell 26.02558
Sidney Moncrief 23.0294
Walt Bellamy 20.93269
Sam Jones 19.9995
Amar'e Stoudemire 18.79104
Larry Nance 18.67998
Bob McAdoo 18.40183
Shawn Marion 18.08771
Elton Brand 17.67381
Marques Johnson 16.40483
Shawn Kemp 15.98746
Grant Hill 11.53165
Jack Sikma 10.18433
Wes Unseld 10.12033
Terrell Brandon 8.899083
Dennis Rodman 8.412583
Rasheed Wallace 6.774042
Bill Walton 6.547875
Bernard King 6.473833
Vlade Divac 3.322479
Bob Cousy 3.230292
Cousy still missing first year data. Moncrief and Jones have gone. Only Howell of those above Nance isn't a guy thought to be worse than their numbers (Johnston, Bellamy and STAT), and he too deserves consideration here. Still I think I prefer Nance's rounded game.
EWA/PER-WAG wrote:Neil Johnston 62.31428
Elton Brand 56.76358
Amar'e Stoudemire 53.01318
Bob McAdoo 49.68881
Walt Bellamy 47.441
Grant Hill 42.28965
Shawn Marion 37.39274
Larry Nance 33.13085
Shawn Kemp 32.23035
Marques Johnson 31.59547
Bob Cousy 29.94303
Terrell Brandon 26.5204
Bernard King 24.73716
Bailey Howell 23.32214
Sidney Moncrief 18.29985
Bill Walton 15.57692
Jack Sikma 12.07736
Sam Jones 10.72607
Rasheed Wallace 8.006766
Vlade Divac 6.38592
Wes Unseld 0.0602488
Dennis Rodman 0
McAdoo is off the board, as is Hill. Johnston, STAT and Bellamy are near the top again, but have some combination of era/system and defense/team performance issues. Brand has had my backing but it seems like he's not on anyone's radar and he's overshadowed within his era so I'll hold off for the moment. Marion also a legit contender but some people have concerns about Marion's numbers being inflated by system/Nash and whilst I don't entirely agree, there may be some merit and I certainly wouldn't feel confident entirely rebutting it.
I am looking at Bobby Jones and am a fan of the style of both these guys, anyway from discussions with Doctor MJ about the two there were discussions of minutes he's got about 6500 (RS) minutes on Jones (and see also the metrics above which show him as one of the top players on the board by accumulative style metrics which value longevity) and might be slightly better boxscore wise (per minute).
With Nance though we don't don't know about plus minus, where Jones is strong. So I thought I'd do a quick with/without.
'87: with Nance (69 games) -71, -1.029 per game
without Nance (13 games) - 129, -9.923076923. Small sample but that team looks pretty bad without Nance. Without looking at schedule differences that's an approximate impact of 8.894076923 on their points differential (may look to find another season with a reliable sample).
I'm fine with Doc's subjective take,
Doctor MJ wrote:I've always been pretty impressed with Nance, but I don't tend to classify him in that category of "everyone loved that guy as a huge team guy, and analytical analysis makes him look even better than I thought" where I have guys like Jones and Ginobili.
But every angle I've seen ranks him at least pretty well analytically, and he was certainly highly regarded as a teammate/pro/leader at least for the span where I have feedback on this (from the Barry scouting books)
89-90 Pro Basketball Scouting Report wrote:Nance is a classy pro, an inspiration to Cleveland's younger players. After being the head honcho in Phoenix, he demonstrated supreme adaptive skills and molded himself into Cleveland's system, which didn't feature any one player.
Intangiables grade: AA
90-91 Pro Basketball Scouting Report wrote:A consumate pro. "Couldn't ask for a better player to work with," noted one admirer. Undoubtedly, there were nights when his ankle was hurting, but you'd never hear a peep from Nance.
Intangiables grade: AA
91-92 Pro Basketball Scouting Report wrote:A pro's pro ... Consistent ... Smart player ... Tremendous work ethic
Intangiables grade: AAA
92-93 Pro Basketball Scouting Report wrote:Never one to toot his own horn, another reason he's never generated much attention ... A "behind the scenes" leader, offering encouragement to teammates, especially Cavs' younger players ... The ultimate pro
Intangiables grade: AAA
93-94 Pro Basketball Scouting Report wrote:Off the court, completely self-effacing, one of the humblest stars in the league... Good with Cavs' rookies, taking them under his wing... A pro's pro... But he's not a fiery, on-court leader, which is what the Cavs so desperately need.
Intangiables grade: AAA
Nance has a solid consensus from the metrics he was good or better for a long time. He's a player with portability - particularly to good teams as he is defined not by volume scoring but D, efficiency, low mistakes, a leader, a solid passer, and as time went on spacing as he became a strong 15-18 feet jump shooter and was generally offensively versatile (post game, drive, transition, off the ball and the J, all appear to have been solid options).
Nance is a great third option (offensively) for a contender (and played an important role on some really good when healthy Cleveland teams (most notably the '89 Cavs who posted a league leading 7.95 SRS on slow pace, and looked like the favourites until a vicious Mahorn elbow concussed Price late in the season, but also the 92 and 93 teams).
I don't know about anchoring arguments but FWIW looking at the numbers is there any real gap between Nance and McHale
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 4=&p5=&p6= (McHale has playoff WS advantage, but arguably that's due to superior teammates). McHale has an advantage overall based on a higher peak (and the additional value in title probability that brings), but the seems far from huge. For what it's worth McHale was in at 44.
There's a few guys I'm looking at (including) Brand, Howell, Marion, maybe Bobby Jones and dynasty Celtics Cousy, Sharman and Howell (probably should start looking at Hagan too ...).
Nonetheless my vote here goes to Larry Nance.Nance versus Archibald (part beacuse Archibald wasn't in my previous numbers set, part because he may be a contender given he's been in a runoff)WS-WAG wrote:Larry Nance 18.67998
Nate Archibald 7.946291667
EWA/PER-WAG wrote:Larry Nance 33.13085
Nate Archibald 32.49492537
Remember this is a method that favours peak/elite level performance. And both measures struggle to quantify D (a strength for Nance, and despite some ability to be pest when healthy a weakness for Archibald). And PER favour scorers. And Archibald's best years (the years which contribute the entire of his PER/EWA Wins above Good and most of his WS/48 WaG) don't include turnovers, which based on the years we do have for him were high.
Even Nance's one relative weakness the playoffs (and I don't believe this is a big issue) is a large advantage over Archibald (even after acknowledging that most of Archibald's playoff appearances were outside his main prime).
A random note, since both players have been been mentioned in this post, Nate Archibald and Kevin McHale are two guys who (irritatingly), youtube and google come up with namesakes rather than the basketball player first
