Jays Minor League Affiliate/Prospect Discussion Thread

[aligator]

Yes, and I'll disagree even further. Trading Bush was not a mistake. We gave up nothing else of value and received Overbay in return. Bush has been ok in the NL but I have doubts he is a good AL starter. I feel that Casey Janssen will be a much better pitcher than Dave Bush.

[OldNo7]

There are a lot of arguments going both ways on numerous 25 and under Jays prospects that didnt pan out, and/or we let go.

So to me, the question I would need to ask (because I am not fully up to snuff on the minor leagues), do we have inadequate managers, coaches, and people in player development in the minor leagues if all of these people are not working out and we are giving up on them?

[aligator]

The great majority of minor league prospects do not make it to or are not successful in the majors. That's why so many are drafted and given an opportunity in the minor leagues. It is in many ways a trial and error method. The Jays are probably no better or worse than most major leagues teams, though I will add that the Jays system has more depth of pitching prospects than most organizations not named LA or Cleveland. Only 2, McGowan and Romero are projected as high end starters and McGowan is on shakey ground, but there are several who could make it to the show in some capacity.

[OldNo7]

Aside from Snyder and Lind, do we have any high quality bats in our system? What about fielders?

[Michael Bradley]

Yes, and I'll disagree even further. Trading Bush was not a mistake. We gave up nothing else of value and received Overbay in return. Bush has been ok in the NL but I have doubts he is a good AL starter. I feel that Casey Janssen will be a much better pitcher than Dave Bush.

The problem here is, you're not backing up your points. You're just stating your opinion.

AL: 234 IP, 4.15 ERA, 5.35 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 (age 24/25)
NL: 210 IP, 4.41 ERA, 7.11 K/9, 1.63 BB/9 (age 26)

Dave Bush can't pitch in the AL? Really?

Here is what "Baseball Analysts" wrote about Bush in September 2006:

For the year, Bush is tied for third in the league in WHIP (1.16). Importantly, the man with the pinpoint control has lowered his BB/9 (from 1.91 to 1.70) and HR/9 (1.32 to 1.09) and raised his K/9 (4.95 to 7.27) by nearly 50% from one season to the next. His Defense Independent Pitching (3.88) and Fielding Independent Pitching (3.85) are considerably better than his ERA (4.44). In fact, his DIPS and FIP rank 11th and 13th, respectively, while the difference between his FIP and ERA is the fourth highest in the league.

The three-year veteran is one of the most efficient pitchers in baseball. He has averaged just 14.5 pitches per inning, the fifth-lowest total in the majors. The top four? Greg Maddux, Roy Halladay, Chien-Ming Wang, and Brandon Webb.

Bush is arguably more like Chris Carpenter than not. They have two of the best Uncle Charlies in the game. Furthermore, these hurlers have similar K and BB rates. The main difference is that last year's Cy Young Award winner does an even better job of keeping the ball on the ground and in the ballpark. Nonetheless, Bush is more advanced than Carpenter at the same age. The latter didn't break out until his first year with the Cardinals when he was 29. Putting Bush in Carpenter's class may be a bit premature, but I believe it captures the younger hurler's upside. Based on his improved command and results of late, it wouldn't surprise me if Bush made a big push in narrowing whatever gap there exists within the next year.

Gabe Gross (the guy with no value according to you) had a .858 OPS last season (.382 OBP) while killing RHP (.294/.400/.508 in 187 AB) for the Brewers last season. Again, like Bush, at least he was given up in a trade for a good player, rather than a inferior talent with options left (which Rosario will inevitably go for).

Chad Gaudin at age 22 in AAA threw 150.1 innings with a 3.35 ERA and very strong ratios. He struggled badly with Toronto (small sample), ran out of options, and went to Oakland where he put up a 3.09 ERA in 64 innings and was stingy with hits and home runs allowed (bad K/BB, but again, he's only 23). He'll probably be a starter/reliever for them this year with many years of service left.

The "not all prospects will pan out" excuse is true. There's always a chance for a prospect to fail, regardless of how highly touted he is. But again, when dealing with players running out of options, you have to be smart in seeing whether they CAN be kept in place of someone more dispensible. That way you potentially keep an arm (or bat) that still has potential but may not have lived up to it yet. Rosario fits that description. Gaudin fit it. Quiroz fit it (until Molina was signed). Brandon Lyon was let go to make room for Jeff Tam's of the world, and Lyon was closing for Boston that year before hurting himself.

Does every team do this type of stuff? Sure. That doesn't mean they can't be prevented from time to time.

[-MetA4-]

Minor League season starts tomorrow.

[Holmes]

Aside from Snyder and Lind, do we have any high quality bats in our system?

Yes

[-MetA4-]

Since when is a Shea Hillenbrand bat considered to be "high quality"?

[Holmes]

Fine.

[aligator]

With regard to Dave Bush, his strikeout to walk ratio was considerably worse in the NL than in the AL. That is usually a red flag and a better indicator of future performance than ERA. It remains to be seen whether he can maintain a regular rotation spot. I am not at all sure that he can.

[SmallTownJournalist303]

With regard to Dave Bush, his strikeout to walk ratio was considerably worse in the NL than in the AL. That is usually a red flag and a better indicator of future performance than ERA. It remains to be seen whether he can maintain a regular rotation spot. I am not at all sure that he can.

Are you kidding me? Bush is awesome. This guy walks almost nobody, has an above average K-rate, and doesn't give up so many home runs that it mitigates his effectiveness. Oh, and he's 26 (27?). If he improves his K-rate any more than he'll be a legit stud.

[Michael Bradley]

With regard to Dave Bush, his strikeout to walk ratio was considerably worse in the NL than in the AL. That is usually a red flag and a better indicator of future performance than ERA. It remains to be seen whether he can maintain a regular rotation spot. I am not at all sure that he can.

No, it was considerably better.

2004: 2.56 K/BB (64 K, 25 BB)
2005: 2.59 K/BB (75 K, 29 BB)
2006: 4.73 K/BB (166 K, 38 BB)

He's a good pitcher. Potentially very good. Still young enough to improve, and he certainly improved in every important ratio last season. He's still on a pre-arbitration salary as well.

Overbay is a good player, but let's not pretend we gave up nothing to get him. Bush is better than every Jays starter not named Roy or AJ, and he might catch up to AJ eventually if Burnett continues to underachieve/get hurt.

[OldNo7]

No offence intended to aligator, just trying to help with your side of the arguments, but it really appears as though you are trying to speak about facts, without actually looking at the numbers, thus all of your arguments are completely false.

[-MetA4-]

McGowan's start in AAA:

5 IP
2 H
2 BB
1 R
0 ER
8 K

Weather apparently affected the hitters quite a bit (the opposing SP had a no-hitter going into the 5th inning). McGowan pitched mostly fastballs as the opposing hitters weren't able to square up on it, threw very few breaking balls and almost no changeups. The one unearned eun came on a Russ Adams error (shocker),

[Flip]

Good to see McGowan get 8 k's in 5 innings of work.

[aligator]

5 Shutout innings of 4 hit ball with 9 K's by Geremi Gonzalez last night. Also, 2 shutout innings pitched by Jamie Vermilyea and one each by Blaine Neal and Brian Wolfe(2 K's). Syracuse didn't do too badly offensively either scoring 16 runs. J F Griffin was 2 for 5 with a double and a homer while Adam Lind had 3 hits. Among many with 2 hits were Russ Adams and Ryan Roberts.

Dunedin beat Clearwater 9-7 in the FSL. Two hits apiece by: Cory Patton(including HR), Carlo Cota, Eric Neilson and Jacob Butler.

Other scheduled games rained out.

[OldNo7]

How old is JFG? Does he have a shot at being an MLB regular or even bench player?

[SmallTownJournalist303]

I think he's 27. He might still have a future as a bench player, but I doubt it.

[aligator]

Not much of cosequence from the minor affiliates yesterday. Syracuse lost while New Hampshire and Dunedin won. Adam Lind and J F Griffin each had 2 hits including a HR for the Chiefs while Anthony Hatch had 2 hits for Dunedin. Eric Ktatz had the only 2 hit game for NH. One of those hits was a HR. Another ofer for John Hattig. Don't know he is playing ahead of Ryan Roberts. Expect that will change soon.

[aligator]

Syracuse lost last night. Poor start for Taubenheim. Excellent relieving by Wolfe and Roney.

Although not considered a top prospect, Brian Wolfe was lights out during ST and was assigned higher(AAA) than most expected. He has continued to pitch shutout ball with high K totals with Syracuse. If he keeps this up until June, he will force a major league look as soon as an opportunity becomes available.