Is Wall Top 5 PG?

[Nivek]

Basketball is a two way game and right now Wall is probably the best defender out of all point guards.

I can live with the turnovers because half of them are usually Gortat failing to control the pass or not ready for the pass.

Gortat failing to control a pass would count as a turnover against Gortat. And, he commits very few turnovers. His biggest turnover "issue" is bad pass. But, turnovers are rare for Gortat.

For Wall, the biggest driver of turnovers is the bad pass -- 64.6% of his turnovers are bad passes. That's about 2.4 per game. Which is kinda a lot.

[jangles86]

Basketball is a two way game and right now Wall is probably the best defender out of all point guards.

I can live with the turnovers because half of them are usually Gortat failing to control the pass or not ready for the pass.

Gortat failing to control a pass would count as a turnover against Gortat. And, he commits very few turnovers. His biggest turnover "issue" is bad pass. But, turnovers are rare for Gortat.

For Wall, the biggest driver of turnovers is the bad pass -- 64.6% of his turnovers are bad passes. That's about 2.4 per game. Which is kinda a lot.

Wall definately forces quite a few silly passes that don't come off. I do think a lot of those are passes to players that just aren't ready for it and are not as quick of thought as Wall is.

[barelyawake]

Paul's highest assist rate per 100 possessions was on the 2007-08 Hornets. They had the fifth best offense. And as I said, if you look at the field goal percentages of the top players on that team, and other teams of his where his assists peaked, they have better finishers on those teams than the times when his assists dipped.

And no I'm not saying Wall is on a team of players that can't shoot. If you need me to repeat what I said for a third time I can.

You are looking at assists per 100 team possessions. That doesn't take into account how many possessions Paul himself had. That year was Pauls 2nd highest year for usage rate so it makes sense he would have more assists that year per 100 team possessions.

I am looking at the assist ratio at ESPN which is assists per player possessions. This isn't effected by usage rate. See below

You are looking at this too simplistically. Guys like Gortat, Beal, and Butler depend on their pg to get them good shots. Guys like Durant and Lebron dont.

Admittedly, I'm not a stats guy. But, does not that chart not say a/40 -- which basically mimics the stats I quoted in terms of fluctuation?

And yes Durant creates his own shot (mostly because he doesn't play with a John Wall). As I also mentioned, he drags defenses away from a driving gaurd (allowing that guard to be more efficient). Do you believe in that phenomenon? Does Girffin create his own shot? Did Chandler in NO? If Wall is passing to a post player who coverts a higher percentage than Gortat, would you still assume that Wall's overall offensive stats wouldn't be better?

As I said, it seems rather obvious that a passing point would do better with players who can finish at a higher percentage. And it seems obvious that a player who demands double teams, allows the players that they play with to be more efficient offensively. I don't think either notion is illogical. And I would like to know why you think it doesn't matter. You are basically saying it doesnt matter if we have Durant or Porter, or Gortat or Cousins (offensively that is). Because Wall can pass to either and either will convert at the same rate.

[tontoz]

Admittedly, I'm not a stats guy. But, does not that chart not say a/40 -- which basically mimics the stats I quoted in terms of fluctuation?

And yes Durant creates his own shot (mostly because he doesn't play with a John Wall). As I also mentioned, he drags defenses away from a driving gaurd (allowing that guard to be more efficient). Do you believe in that phenomenon? Does Girffin create his own shot? Did Chandler in NO? If Wall is passing to a post player who coverts a higher percentage than Gortat, would you still assume that Wall's overall offensive stats wouldn't be better?

As I said, it seems rather obvious that a passing point would do better with players who can finish at a higher percentage. And it seems obvious that a player who demands double teams, allows the players that they play with to be more efficient offensively. I don't think either notion is illogical. And I would like to know why you think it doesn't matter. You are basically saying it doesnt matter if we have Durant or Porter, or Gortat or Cousins (offensively that is). Because Wall can pass to either and either will convert at the same rate.

The problem is that there is no actual evidence of your "logic" because there are other factors involved.

It is also rather obvious that an elite scorer will have the ball in his hands a lot, reducing the number of chances that Wall gets for an assist. Irving has more offensive talent around him than ever yet he is posting the lowest assist rate of his career.

If Durant came to town Wall would be playing off the ball more. He would have fewer opportunities for an assist and would be shooting more catch and shoot jumpers, which he doesn't do very often now. His assists would probably go down and his scoring efficiency would go up. But it is no sure thing. Look at what happened to Kevin Love's scoring efficiency playing with Lebron.

Durant had the 2nd highest usage rate in the league last year. There is only one basketball.



No that stat was not assist per 40.

AST: Assist Ratio is the percentage of a player's possessions that end in an assist. Assist Ratio = (Assists x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers]

Looking at assists per team possessions doesn't tell the whole story. Assume player A and player B have the same assist rate per 100 team possessions. If player A has a usage rate of 25 and player B has a usage rate of 35 then obviously player A is doing a better job playmaking, generating the same number of assists in fewer possessions.

[Nivek]

Minor point of clarification: Assist ratio is dependent on usage. The formula is a measure of assists as a share of usage. For analytic purposes, it's not all the useful, although it does give a sense for how often a guy passes vs. shoots.

[krii]

Wow, Kevin...You are doing absolutely fantastic job with this blog. Big up!

Anyway could you please tell me if you noticed anything less from the Wall-Gortat duo (number of executed/made PnR`s)? I`m watching almost every game this season and I`m a bit worried by lack of those plays. It seems like Gortat general productivity has decrease since November which IMO is a consequence of previously mentioned PnR`s.

It seems like a lot of Wizards are making those long 2s constantly while the numbers produced by Gortat around the rim were usually very high. When he is confident it makes him really efficient and it gives Wizards more ways to play offense (not only post-ups and long 2s) as it is opening the court. Correct me if I`m wrong

[Illmatic12]

Admittedly, I'm not a stats guy. But, does not that chart not say a/40 -- which basically mimics the stats I quoted in terms of fluctuation?

And yes Durant creates his own shot (mostly because he doesn't play with a John Wall). As I also mentioned, he drags defenses away from a driving gaurd (allowing that guard to be more efficient). Do you believe in that phenomenon? Does Girffin create his own shot? Did Chandler in NO? If Wall is passing to a post player who coverts a higher percentage than Gortat, would you still assume that Wall's overall offensive stats wouldn't be better?

As I said, it seems rather obvious that a passing point would do better with players who can finish at a higher percentage. And it seems obvious that a player who demands double teams, allows the players that they play with to be more efficient offensively. I don't think either notion is illogical. And I would like to know why you think it doesn't matter. You are basically saying it doesnt matter if we have Durant or Porter, or Gortat or Cousins (offensively that is). Because Wall can pass to either and either will convert at the same rate.

The problem is that there is no actual evidence of your "logic" because there are other factors involved.

It is also rather obvious that an elite scorer will have the ball in his hands a lot, reducing the number of chances that Wall gets for an assist. Irving has more offensive talent around him than ever yet he is posting the lowest assist rate of his career.

If Durant came to town Wall would be playing off the ball more. He would have fewer opportunities for an assist and would be shooting more catch and shoot jumpers, which he doesn't do very often now. His assists would probably go down and his scoring efficiency would go up. But it is no sure thing. Look at what happened to Kevin Love's scoring efficiency playing with Lebron.

Durant had the 2nd highest usage rate in the league last year. There is only one basketball.



No that stat was not assist per 40.

AST: Assist Ratio is the percentage of a player's possessions that end in an assist. Assist Ratio = (Assists x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers]

Looking at assists per team possessions doesn't tell the whole story. Assume player A and player B have the same assist rate per 100 team possessions. If player A has a usage rate of 25 and player B has a usage rate of 35 then obviously player A is doing a better job playmaking, generating the same number of assists in fewer possessions.

Durant had such a high usage rate last yr because Westbrook was out a good chunk of the season. Once you take away Westbrook that OKC team had very few legit ballhandlers. So Durant was probably handling the ball too much for his own good, which can be confirmed by his mediocre A/TO rate.

John Wall is one of the 4 or 5 best playmaking guards currently playing the sport of basketball, why would anyone move him off the ball in favor of Durant who has a career 3:3 A/TO ratio? Durant would be playing his natural role next to Wall, as an ATG deadly off-ball scorer. He would be a secondary ballhandler sure, but that wouldn't stop Wall from racking up assists and feasting off of the wide open passing lanes created by KDs presence.

[tontoz]

Durant had such a high usage rate last yr because Westbrook was out a good chunk of the season. Once you take away Westbrook that OKC team had very few legit ballhandlers. So Durant was probably handling the ball too much for his own good, which can be confirmed by his mediocre A/TO rate.

John Wall is one of the 4 or 5 best playmaking guards currently playing the sport of basketball, why would anyone move him off the ball in favor of Durant who has a career 3:3 A/TO ratio? Durant would be playing his natural role next to Wall, as an ATG deadly off-ball scorer. He would be a secondary ballhandler sure, but that wouldn't stop Wall from racking up assists and feasting off of the wide open passing lanes created by KDs presence.

You move Wall more off the ball because Durant is the best scorer in the league. Durant is going to have the ball a lot and when he does, Wall is playing off the ball by definition.

Durant is not just an off the ball scorer. He is also an elite scorer off the dribble. He isn't scoring 30 ppg on catch and shoot attempts.

[Illmatic12]

Durant had such a high usage rate last yr because Westbrook was out a good chunk of the season. Once you take away Westbrook that OKC team had very few legit ballhandlers. So Durant was probably handling the ball too much for his own good, which can be confirmed by his mediocre A/TO rate.

John Wall is one of the 4 or 5 best playmaking guards currently playing the sport of basketball, why would anyone move him off the ball in favor of Durant who has a career 3:3 A/TO ratio? Durant would be playing his natural role next to Wall, as an ATG deadly off-ball scorer. He would be a secondary ballhandler sure, but that wouldn't stop Wall from racking up assists and feasting off of the wide open passing lanes created by KDs presence.

You move Wall more off the ball because Durant is the best scorer in the league. Durant is going to have the ball a lot and when he does, Wall is playing off the ball by definition.

Durant is not just an off the ball scorer. He is also an elite scorer off the dribble. He isn't scoring 30 ppg on catch and shoot attempts.

He's not strictly an off-ball scorer, but he's not a 33%+ usage guy either.

Kevin Durant isn't a Lebron James with the ball in his hands. He's not even a Tracy McGrady, really. He isn't a natural point forward.

Durant handles the ball so much because under Brooks, the Thunder have no offensive system whatsoever nor do they understand ball/player movement. That team basically takes turns iso'ing. OKC rank 28th in assist ratio (Washington is 3rd, fyi)

[tontoz]

He's not strictly an off-ball scorer, but he's not a 33%+ usage guy either.

Kevin Durant isn't a Lebron James with the ball in his hands. He's not even a Tracy McGrady, really. He isn't a natural point forward.

Durant handles the ball so much because under Brooks, the Thunder have no offensive system whatsoever nor do they understand ball/player movement. That team basically takes turns iso'ing. OKC rank 28th in assist ratio (Washington is 3rd, fyi)

Durant's lowest usage rate was his first two years at 28. Wall's current usage rate is 25.6.

Durant isnt the playmaker Lebron is but he is the best scorer in the game. He will have the ball a lot, easily more than anyone on the team. He is a high volume, high efficiency scorer. He doesnt need Wall the set him up.

The other players on the team will need Wall to set them up for good looks. Durant won't. Durant will be the guy with the ball in his hands in the end of clock/end of quarter situations, not Wall.

[Illmatic12]

He's not strictly an off-ball scorer, but he's not a 33%+ usage guy either.

Kevin Durant isn't a Lebron James with the ball in his hands. He's not even a Tracy McGrady, really. He isn't a natural point forward.

Durant handles the ball so much because under Brooks, the Thunder have no offensive system whatsoever nor do they understand ball/player movement. That team basically takes turns iso'ing. OKC rank 28th in assist ratio (Washington is 3rd, fyi)

Durant's lowest usage rate was his first two years at 28. Wall's current usage rate is 25.6.

Durant isnt the playmaker Lebron is but he is the best scorer in the game. He will have the ball a lot, easily more than anyone on the team. He is a high volume, high efficiency scorer. He doesnt need Wall the set him up.

The other players on the team will need Wall to set them up for good looks. Durant won't. Durant will be the guy with the ball in his hands in the end of clock/end of quarter situations, not Wall.

And theoretically I'm sure Wall would gladly give up the ball for those iso situations. He sucks at them anyways, they usually end in bricked long twos.

I don't see any potential issues with a Wall/Durant pairing, I think they would both make each other much better. But if anything, Durant's usage and overall scoring ppg would probably come down. OKC has an extremely unbalanced roster, Durant has to handle the ball probably more than he should and his teammates don't necessarily do him any favors in terms of spacing the floor. He wouldn't be the same raw statistical beast playing with a John Wall-type PG, but the game would be made much easier for him.

[tontoz]

And theoretically I'm sure Wall would gladly give up the ball for those iso situations. He sucks at them anyways, they usually end in bricked long twos.

I don't see any potential issues with a Wall/Durant pairing, I think they would both make each other much better. But if anything, Durant's usage and overall scoring ppg would probably come down. OKC has an extremely unbalanced roster, Durant has to handle the ball probably more than he should and his teammates don't necessarily do him any favors in terms of spacing the floor. He wouldn't be the same raw statistical beast playing with a John Wall-type PG, but the game would be made much easier for him.

I think the pairing would be great. But i don't buy the idea that Walls current stats are being held down by the team he plays on, which is where this discussion started. Adding Durant isn't going to suddenly get Wall more assists than he is getting now. It will improve the teams offense a lot though.

Keep in mind that Durant currently plays with ChuckBrook, who freezes him out at times. Just look at what happened the last time we played them. Durant didn't go off until Westbrook went to the bench.

[Nivek]

I cannot imagine a scenario where the Wizards acquire Durant and would want his usage rate to go down. He's one of the elite offensive players of all time (combination of efficiency and usage), who's probably just now entering his prime. Wall's a good player, but he isn't anywhere close to being in Durant's stratosphere as an offensive player.

[Illmatic12]

And theoretically I'm sure Wall would gladly give up the ball for those iso situations. He sucks at them anyways, they usually end in bricked long twos.

I don't see any potential issues with a Wall/Durant pairing, I think they would both make each other much better. But if anything, Durant's usage and overall scoring ppg would probably come down. OKC has an extremely unbalanced roster, Durant has to handle the ball probably more than he should and his teammates don't necessarily do him any favors in terms of spacing the floor. He wouldn't be the same raw statistical beast playing with a John Wall-type PG, but the game would be made much easier for him.

I think the pairing would be great. But i don't buy the idea that Walls current stats are being held down by the team he plays on, which is where this discussion started. Adding Durant isn't going to suddenly get Wall more assists than he is getting now. It will improve the teams offense a lot though.

Keep in mind that Durant currently plays with ChuckBrook, who freezes him out at times. Just look at what happened the last time we played them. Durant didn't go off until Westbrook went to the bench.

I personally wouldn't care about Wall's assist #s if we got Kevin Durant, haha

[barelyawake]

I cannot imagine a scenario where the Wizards acquire Durant and would want his usage rate to go down. He's one of the elite offensive players of all time (combination of efficiency and usage), who's probably just now entering his prime. Wall's a good player, but he isn't anywhere close to being in Durant's stratosphere as an offensive player.

Btw, no one addressed my concept of a post player who scores at a greater rate than Gortat. And really, that was my point in this thread. But since we are going with Durant, I have absolutely no doubt that Wall would create more scoring opportunities for Durant than Westbrook does. And Durant would covert more Wall passes into points than Porter could. I'm entirely unsure why this is debatable.

[Nivek]

I cannot imagine a scenario where the Wizards acquire Durant and would want his usage rate to go down. He's one of the elite offensive players of all time (combination of efficiency and usage), who's probably just now entering his prime. Wall's a good player, but he isn't anywhere close to being in Durant's stratosphere as an offensive player.

Btw, no one addressed my concept of a post player who scores at a greater rate than Gortat. And really, that was my point in this thread. But since we are going with Durant, I have absolutely no doubt that Wall would create more scoring opportunities for Durant than Westbrook does. And Durant would covert more Wall passes into points than Porter could. I'm entirely unsure why this is debatable.

I think post scoring is less important than it once was, though it would surely be nice to have an efficient post scorer who could also pass effectively.

I agree with you that Durant and Wall being paired together would likely be beneficial for both of them.

[payitforward]

Players are as good as their numbers. Fans, however, always think their good players are *better than* their numbers -- fans of every team. It's natural.

It's also easy -- Jangles watches John Wall more than he watches Mike Conley. So he can explain away turnovers as someone else's fault, for example. Conley's TOs are just numbers, so they can't be explained away.

The real takeaway from Nivek's analysis is that John Wall, 24 and entering his prime, is one of the top 10 (not 5) point guards in the game. That's quite good, and since he has been an improving player pretty consistently over the last 3 years he may wind up one of the top 5 for some stretch of years.

[payitforward]

duplicate post...

[Bigwig]

Players are as good as their numbers. Fans, however, always think their good players are *better than* their numbers -- fans of every team. It's natural.

It's also easy -- Jangles watches John Wall more than he watches Mike Conley. So he can explain away turnovers as someone else's fault, for example. Conley's TOs are just numbers, so they can't be explained away.

The real takeaway from Nivek's analysis is that John Wall, 24 and entering his prime, is one of the top 10 (not 5) point guards in the game. That's quite good, and since he has been an improving player pretty consistently over the last 3 years he may wind up one of the top 5 for some stretch of years.

I agree with your main point, that fans tend to be biased towards the players they watch regularly and root for. But I don't see why Nivek's method for aggregating the various statistics would be more valid for measuring which player is better (whatever that means in the context of a team sport) than some other method. In the end, it's still an opinion.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nivek are you able to easily break down PPA by month? I know Wall was pretty weak in November. Thanks

Well, you could try READING MY BLOG!!!!



Mainly because I kept finding myself going back to see how a player's production changed during the season, I added the week-by-week scores for each player from each update. Here's Wall's:

- 11/10 -- 185
- 11/18 -- 180
- 11/24 -- 180
- 12/3 -- 168
- 12/8 -- 167
- 12/17 -- 175
- 12/23 -- 171
- 12/29 -- 171
- 1/6 -- 167
- 1/14 -- 172

I could run the numbers on his game log, if you want.

Must...read...Kevin Broom's blog...

I have been talking about starting own blog for some time. Dawns on me to read more. You have been doing this well for a long time. ...