Kieff #15 in RPM

[SideSwipe]

I came across an interesting tidbit today, and I haven't seen it discussed elsewhere, so I thought I would through it out there.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM

Check out the #15 spot, and most interestingly, notice who is below him....arch-nemesis Blake Griffin. It's interesting to look at. Shows him as being the 4th best PF in the game right now behind Davis, Dunacan and Milsap, though the list has Dray Green as a SF- he is listed higher than Kieff. Interested to hear what people think about that.

[Revived]

Perfect example of why statistics can be misleading and doesn't tell the whole story.

There's not an executive in the NBA who would take Kieff over Griffin.

That said, Kieff has been having a solid year offensively.

[bwgood77]

Interesting that most all the power forwards are fairly lopsided on the offensive or defensive end. All of one and none or very little of the other. Other than Davis and Millsap, Kief is the only other one that is fairly strong on both sides.

[Sunlight]

#433 Tony Parker -3.93

[kennydorglas]

Last year was Frye at #11 #25 Bledsoe #39 Dragic
this year #15 Kieff #39 Bledsoe #60 IT #63 Wright #119 PJ Tucker #132 Dragic

[RaisingArizona]

I came across an interesting tidbit today, and I haven't seen it discussed elsewhere, so I thought I would through it out there.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM

Check out the #15 spot, and most interestingly, notice who is below him....arch-nemesis Blake Griffin. It's interesting to look at. Shows him as being the 4th best PF in the game right now behind Davis, Dunacan and Milsap, though the list has Dray Green as a SF- he is listed higher than Kieff. Interested to hear what people think about that.

But he's not a big name so he can't be a superstar. Source: ESPN.

[DaleyBlind]

Last year was Frye at #11 #25 Bledsoe #39 Dragic
this year #15 Kieff #39 Bledsoe #60 IT #63 Wright #119 PJ Tucker #132 Dragic

This right here is all you need to know this stat means nothing.

[suns91fan]

Actually, unlike plus-minus (which is obviously extremely flawed), RPM further enhances "regularized adjusted plus-minus" (RAPM) and is a step in the right direction in my opinion. But as every stat, this one too has its flaws (minor, but still worth mentioning).

1.As it's "per 100 possessions" based stat, it might (or might not) be flawed with players who do not play a lot of minutes per game. Some bench players could have their numbers inflated or deflated duo to a smaller sample size. It has similar problem with players who have a low amount of played games (again, small sample size).

2. As previous plus-minus stats, this one can inflate or deflate players from very strong or very bad teams. Although each newer version of this stat improves on the one before, this still might be somewhat of an issue.

3. While it can be used (to some extent) as a stat to compare players from different teams, it's primary use should be to measure an impact of a player on their own team. So comparing players of the same team is more accurate than comparing players from different teams

It was a few months since i was looking into details about RPM (RAPM to be exact), so some mistakes are possible since it's not as fresh in my memory as it used to be.

TLDR: I think it's a solid stat that makes a solid job at showing a combined offensive and defensive impact of Suns players.

[SideSwipe]

I think all of these points are valid, but it's interesting that much of the rest of the list matches the eye test. A lot of people are paying attention to these stats. At the very least I think it means that Kieff should get a little more love, though I am not ready to call him a top 15 player, by any stretch.

This does say that he is impacting games more than we give him credit for, though. RAPM and RPM take into account team success during a players time on the floor, which does not come across in basic stats. This says the team has success when Markieff is on the floor at a rate that is top 15 in the league. That's pretty interesting. RPM and RAPM are decent gauges of how well certain players do in certain systems. It could also be used to gauge coaching performance.

[phrazbit]

Its not at all useful for comparing guys on other teams IMO. All it really shows is one player compared to all the guys who back him up. The idea that Markieff is a superior player or even close to Griffin is laughable, but Markieff is given a high rating because the Suns backup options at PF this year have sucked.

Last season it rated Eric Bledsoe, a very good defender, as probably the BEST defender in the entire league, nearly twice as good as any other guard. The reality is while Bledsoe was a good/great defender, the guys who replaced him defensively were putrid, causing a flawed stat like RPM to make him appear as a bright shining golden god.

[RunDogGun]

I think Markieff is getting what Plumlee got last season. What I mean is ; because he isn't a star name, teams are not as focused on him yet. What teams seem to know is shut down our two guards, and you shut down our team. However, because we have huge variables on the bench, and the emergence of Markieff and Len, teams are starting to have to pick their poison.

Last year, there wasn't many defensive sets to keep Plumlee from getting his numbers. Once there was more focus to stop him, his numbers dropped off dramatically. Hopefully because Markieff has a better rounded game, this won't happen. Or hopefully the guards recognize when the focus shifts towards stopping Markieff or Len, and the guards just pummel the other team.

I think Markieff has stepped up his game. He needs to stop getting techs and put that passion into rebounding. I would like to see him make a goal of getting nine boards a night, really go after the boards.

[kennydorglas]

I think Markieff is getting what Plumlee got last season. What I mean is ; because he isn't a star name, teams are not as focused on him yet. What teams seem to know is shut down our two guards, and you shut down our team. However, because we have huge variables on the bench, and the emergence of Markieff and Len, teams are starting to have to pick their poison.

Last year, there wasn't many defensive sets to keep Plumlee from getting his numbers. Once there was more focus to stop him, his numbers dropped off dramatically. Hopefully because Markieff has a better rounded game, this won't happen. Or hopefully the guards recognize when the focus shifts towards stopping Markieff or Len, and the guards just pummel the other team.

I think Markieff has stepped up his game. He needs to stop getting techs and put that passion into rebounding. I would like to see him make a goal of getting nine boards a night, really go after the boards.

My main concern about Kieff is that he's really short (6'11 wingspan), this works against him when he's guarded by huge 4's (z-bo/davis/lamarcus) and rebounding in traffic.

[MrMiyagi]

I'm so confused. On a number of levels. First how is RPM calculated? Adding ORPM and DRPM? How are those two calculated?

Second, how can we dismiss the application of this stat to Kieff when top players are ranking high in this like you'd expect them to?
From my rudimentary understanding, this stat is meant to demonstrate who has a large impact on the game in a positive fashion. When Steph Curry, Damien Lillard, Anthony Davis, and most everyone in the top 20 are on the floor, they make a huge impact, yes? Except for Kieff? Really?

[SideSwipe]

Its not at all useful for comparing guys on other teams IMO. All it really shows is one player compared to all the guys who back him up. The idea that Markieff is a superior player or even close to Griffin is laughable, but Markieff is given a high rating because the Suns backup options at PF this year have sucked.

Last season it rated Eric Bledsoe, a very good defender, as probably the BEST defender in the entire league, nearly twice as good as any other guard. The reality is while Bledsoe was a good/great defender, the guys who replaced him defensively were putrid, causing a flawed stat like RPM to make him appear as a bright shining golden god.

I may be wrong Phraz, but I don't think that's how RPM is calculated. RPM and RAPM are meant specifically to gauge player performance up against other player performances, not up against other guys on their team. What these are reliant on is systems and coaching. This stat says that Kieff is doing very well in Hornacek's system and the team is benefitting because of it. It also shows that the system this year is benefitting Bledsoe significantly better than Dragic this year.

From the glossary on ESPN's NBA RPM Page:

ORPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team offensive performance, measured in points scored per 100 offensive possessions
DRPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team defensive performance, measured in points allowed per 100 defensive possessions
RPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors

[phrazbit]

I'm so confused. On a number of levels. First how is RPM calculated? Adding ORPM and DRPM? How are those two calculated?

Second, how can we dismiss the application of this stat to Kieff when top players are ranking high in this like you'd expect them to?
From my rudimentary understanding, this stat is meant to demonstrate who has a large impact on the game in a positive fashion. When Steph Curry, Damien Lillard, Anthony Davis, and most everyone in the top 20 are on the floor, they make a huge impact, yes? Except for Kieff? Really?

Simplified, ORPM is measured by calculating how much a teams offensive output goes up or down when that guys is in and out of the game, DRMP is the same, except obviously for defense.

You cannot compare Kieff's rating to guys like Blake because Kieff's rating is calculated solely on his production against that of the guys who substitute in for him. It skews rating tremendously for players who have bad players as subs, like we do at PF. It is an excellent measure for showing how important one guy is for HIS team, but a terrible measure for comparing one guy against a dude from across the league and saying "he is better than that dude". Its a stat that makes guys who's subs play in units that excel (like Tony Parker) look like crap.

[phrazbit]

Its not at all useful for comparing guys on other teams IMO. All it really shows is one player compared to all the guys who back him up. The idea that Markieff is a superior player or even close to Griffin is laughable, but Markieff is given a high rating because the Suns backup options at PF this year have sucked.

Last season it rated Eric Bledsoe, a very good defender, as probably the BEST defender in the entire league, nearly twice as good as any other guard. The reality is while Bledsoe was a good/great defender, the guys who replaced him defensively were putrid, causing a flawed stat like RPM to make him appear as a bright shining golden god.

I may be wrong Phraz, but I don't think that's how RPM is calculated. RPM and RAPM are meant specifically to gauge player performance up against other player performances, not up against other guys on their team. What these are reliant on is systems and coaching. This stat says that Kieff is doing very well in Hornacek's system and the team is benefitting because of it. It also shows that the system this year is benefitting Bledsoe significantly better than Dragic this year.

From the glossary on ESPN's NBA RPM Page:

ORPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team offensive performance, measured in points scored per 100 offensive possessions
DRPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team defensive performance, measured in points allowed per 100 defensive possessions
RPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors

The stat is based on their "on-court impact", which is weighted against what happens when they are off the court, which boils down to a comparison between a player... and those who are substituted for him on the same team. Its a terrible measure for comparing players across rosters.

To put an end to any question of the validity of this stat for comparison across league; last year Nick Collison rated 7th in the entire league... SEVENTH. If this is a useful tool for league wide comparison then Nick Collison is a secret superstar! But the reality is he is a very mediocre player, however his substitutes last season (Kendrick Perkins and Haseem Thabeet, guys with PERs of 6 and 2 respectively) were the walking dead. Collison only looked like a star compared to the dog **** available to OKC as subs, but he is NOT a star. Thats all RPM is good for revealing.

[RunDogGun]

Its not at all useful for comparing guys on other teams IMO. All it really shows is one player compared to all the guys who back him up. The idea that Markieff is a superior player or even close to Griffin is laughable, but Markieff is given a high rating because the Suns backup options at PF this year have sucked.

Last season it rated Eric Bledsoe, a very good defender, as probably the BEST defender in the entire league, nearly twice as good as any other guard. The reality is while Bledsoe was a good/great defender, the guys who replaced him defensively were putrid, causing a flawed stat like RPM to make him appear as a bright shining golden god.

I may be wrong Phraz, but I don't think that's how RPM is calculated. RPM and RAPM are meant specifically to gauge player performance up against other player performances, not up against other guys on their team. What these are reliant on is systems and coaching. This stat says that Kieff is doing very well in Hornacek's system and the team is benefitting because of it. It also shows that the system this year is benefitting Bledsoe significantly better than Dragic this year.

From the glossary on ESPN's NBA RPM Page:

ORPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team offensive performance, measured in points scored per 100 offensive possessions
DRPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team defensive performance, measured in points allowed per 100 defensive possessions
RPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors

The stat is based on their "on-court impact", which is weighted against what happens when they are off the court, which boils down to a comparison between a player... and those who are substituted for him on the same team. Its a terrible measure for comparing players across rosters.

To put an end to any question of the validity of this stat for comparison across league; last year Nick Collison rated 7th in the entire league... SEVENTH. If this is a useful tool for league wide comparison then Nick Collison is a secret superstar! But the reality is he is a very mediocre player, however his substitutes last season (Kendrick Perkins and Haseem Thabeet, guys with PERs of 6 and 2 respectively) were the walking dead. Collison only looked like a star compared to the dog **** available to OKC as subs, but he is NOT a star. Thats all RPM is good for revealing.

Collision started zero games last year, he was a sub himself, not someone who had crappy subs for him. Maybe he was a bad example?

[nevetsov]

I can count the number of true SFs ranked in the top 40 on one hand. Weakest position in the league right now?

[Wannabe MEP]

I think it's important to emphasize the idea that RPM reflects a player's value to his current team, in his current role. It's trying to extrapolate further, but that's just really hard to do well. You need a large sample size with plenty of variety, which really requires multiple years of data...but then you're not really reflecting the current situation as closely as you want to. So -- shocker of shockers -- there's no perfect, boil-it-all-down-to-one stat.

Now, about Markieff vs Griffin...let's take a look at the raw ratings:

Markieff on-court
OffRtg: 109.5
DefRtg: 100.0
NetRtg: 9.4

Markieff off-court
OffRtg: 102.4
DefRtg: 110.4
NetRtg: -7.9

Total difference between NetRtg values: 17.3

Griffin on-court
OffRtg: 114.3
DefRtg: 104.3
NetRtg: 10.0

Griffin off-court
OffRtg: 99.0
DefRtg: 102.9
NetRtg: -4.0

Total difference between NetRtg values: 14.0

So what we see here in the raw numbers is that the Suns are significantly better with Markieff on the court on both offense AND defense, whereas the Clippers' offense struggles big-time without Griffin...but the defense actually improves. That's reflected in RPM: Griffin has the better ORPM, but Markieff's DRPM is quite a bit better.

The Clippers can play effective basketball when Griffin is on the bench, e.g., roll out a couple of their quality guards along with a Hawes-DeAndre frontcourt and they're fine. That's not so much the case with the Suns this year. With the failed Tolliver experiment, Marcus is the only other player getting consistent minutes at the four, and he's been a disaster on defense.

So based on that, I think there's a reasonable case to be made that Markieff is more valuable to the Suns right now than Griffin is to the Clips. Right now. In this current context.

Now, if we looked at multiple years of RAPM/RPM data, Griffin would win by a LONG way, so the safe money is definitely on Griffin to beat out Markieff in RPM in years to come as situations change. (But it is possible that Markieff has now figured out NBA-level defense to the point that he is simply the better defender, and therefore the more complete player. I wouldn't count on that, but it is possible.)

[RunDogGun]

It's tough to use multiple years in this case (Mark vs Blake), because one had the benefit to play with all starters, and the other mainly bench players for all of last season. The flip side to that is one faced more bench players for competition last season.