I_Socrates wrote:Thank you 1Upz and Lilfishi for actually reading my post and understanding my analysis.
You guys have seen me posting as a Suns supporter for years on the General and Trade Board so you must know where I am coming from.
Some others clearly have an issue with people who disagree with them and are hellbent on proving some sort of agenda that I frankly want nothing to do with.
My point stands. If we want to remain in a situation where we fight for the 8th seed and miss out year in and year out, keeping Len and all our current guys intact makes sense. My issue with such a frame of mind is simply that we are going to be stuck in this mediocrity perpetually if we don't make moves. Again, for those that keep arguing Len is better NOW than Noah, you're flat out wrong. Noah's raw numbers are down because he's now playing Gasol AND Mirotic and Gibson is still around. Those guys all get their own too, but most importantly, Gasol does best at C and therefore that has affected Noah greatly, not to mention his injury which has definitely deterred him. Noah is by far the better player today regardless of a small sample size of mediocre stats. He was the DPOY not too long ago, you don't go from being DPOY to Plumlee at the age of 29 without legitimate reasons.
My point was simply that some fans need to be much more objective about the assets we have instead of being homers and touting the proverbial horn. I gave the example of Plumlee which most of you witnessed first hand. He was playing out of his mind last year and clearly overachieving. Many of us wanted to move him this off-season when his value was at it's highest. Our FO held on too long and now we'd be happy if he netted us a late first. We've done that in the past with other players we drafted or developed. We wait too long with huge expectations only to later let that player go in FA or move then when value lowers due to whatever number of factors. I don't want to be in that position any longer, and the only way to avoid that is to capitalize on our assets when you can. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and although some of you seem to believe Len is already that bird, he's barely hatched out of the egg. You don't know yet whether he's going to fly or whether he's a gimp, and you can't claim he's going to be a high flyer based on a ~20 game sample.
I would like to apologize on behalf of the Suns fan base. This thread is embarrassing. OP, kind sir, is this deal still available? Please. Just tell me where to sign off.
Well, first off, how do you expect other posters to react to a post like above--like you are somehow the "pillar of knowledge" when it comes to our FO frame of mind, yet the rest of us are simpletons that do not understand the way of the NBA and value of different players. So it's not about having an "issue with people who disagree with them," so much as people having an issue with the way you go about your disagreement.
And yet, you somehow make a comparison of Plumlee's situation to Len's. Two completely different players under completely different circumstances, yet we as the "Suns' fan base" somehow don't understand. Of course fans were excited about Plumlee's production last year--it was completely unexpected. He was a late 1st Rd selection, and by all accounts, was a reach there anyway, as he was seen as a 2nd Rd Value. We felt like we somehow got thee steal of the century in that trade, as he immediately started off playing "out of his mind" good out of nowhere. Only to have him regress back down to where he was expected to be by the end of the season and into this season.
Len, on the other hand, was projected to be the #1 overall pick, yet fell to us at #5. He has slowly developed into what he is now, which is what he was expected to develop into, and is still only 21, vice Plumlee who is already 26, and his play was a complete and utter shock.
We didn't trade Plumlee because we didn't have any better options than Len, who was still developing, but now that we have Len AND Wright, Plumlee is now expendable, and are trying to do him a favor to allow him to get more playing time somewhere else. We likely didn't hold on to him expecting to get better value later, like you are implying. It's possible, sure, but you make it sound like that was our plan all along, when the actual circumstances show otherwise.
If we want to remain in a situation where we fight for the 8th seed and miss out year in and year out, keeping Len and all our current guys intact makes sense. My issue with such a frame of mind is simply that we are going to be stuck in this mediocrity perpetually if we don't make moves.
And then you act like we've been on this treadmill of fighting for the 8th seed year in and year out. That is not even close to being correct. Last year was a clear anomaly, and we happened to find ourselves fighting for that 8th seed, when in actuality, we should've been more along the lines of a 34-36 win team, based off of the previous year's 25 win team. So this year is really the first year that we are actually playing to our talent level, and have Ennis, Warren, Bogdanovich, and Goodwin waiting in the wings, with Len just now finding his groove. Yet somehow, as you've opined above, we are somehow fighting year in and year out for the 8th seed with our current roster which is completely false. We are still in the process of developing our young talent, not to mention having an extra Lottery pick in the next year or two. We are not "treadmilling" as you implied, we are rebuilding/retooling with new talent, and are making moves to get better with the acquisitions of Wright and Bullock during the season, and IT and Zoran in the offseason, so we are far from being "stuck in mediocrity perpetually
if we don't make moves." Just because we aren't making blockbuster trades every other week does not mean we aren't building our bench talent base, while developing our recently acquired draft picks--all of which have been drafted in the last year and a half.
How about we give these guys a chance to develop, and more than just a year or 6 months. Ennis and Warren look like potential future starters in this league; Len appears to be, at a minimum, a top-level starter at the 5, Bogdanovich is further developing his talent overseas, and should be ready to be a key contributor, if not starter, by the '16/'17 season. And Goodwin, we all knew, would be at least a 3 year project when drafted, which is fine as that will put him at 22, maybe 23, when he's ready to contribute.
And McD is certainly looking for talent, but in case you missed it, he's looking for young talent--guys in their early to mid 20s. Noah doesn't really fit that mold, and Noah is not going to come in and make us a top 5 seed in the West this year--this team is not ready for that yet. So how is obtaining Noah supposed to propel us into a higher than 8th seed this year--especially by giving up one of our key starters in Tucker? So let's look at this--we give up two starters, for one starter--which BTW, is not playing as well as Len is currently, and yet another development project at a position where we already have our future starter in Warren. That move is supposed to take us to the promise land? And let's say the improbable happens, and Noah has more impact than Len and Tucker combined this season putting us into a top 5 seed this year. He's then 30, and on the last year of his contract. then we lose him, then what? Now we don't have Len and have to draft another 5 to make up for it, then start the development cycle all over again. How is this helping us long-term, exactly?
Many Suns' fans would rather give our young guys the chance to develop--especially Len who's actually showing something already. That doesn't make us satisfied being stuck in mediocrity, that just means we are willing to give it a season or two to get there.
So our point stands as well, which isn't being a homer. Bigfoot explained this well in that thread, which I wholeheartedly agree:
1) Why would the Suns trade for a 30 year old C who has one and a half seasons remaining on his contract? We have Len wrapped up for six to seven more years (2 more years on rookie contract) and 4-5 RFA extension. Noah could simply leave the Suns after 2016.
2) We know Suns are not contenders right now. We are in year two of our rebuild. Why would we even consider getting an older piece of puzzle? In five years will Noah even been playing? Would he even be playing with the Suns?
3) Noah's skill level is set. It's not going to change and will only decline over time. The best comparison is Alex Len in season two (age 21) versus Noah in his second season (age 23). Per 36 minutes Len is clearly better in almost all categories other than assists and recently Len has shown he can make the assist out of the high post. He has significant room for improvement here. Here is the basketball-reference player comparison.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 4=&p5=&p6=
4) Len is basically a rookie. He was injured most of last season. His ceiling is huge.
5) Len is a top 5 shot blocker in the league ... number 5 in terms of blocks per 48 minutes. Noah is number 26. This number will get worse for Noah as he ages and better for Len as he matures. Len is taller and longer than Noah. He alters many, many more shots in the game than he blocks.
6) Currently, the Suns don't need as much scoring or assists from Len that is provided by Noah. The Suns have plenty of scorers and PGs on the team. We're happy to watch Len grow into this role.
7) In 45 years the Suns have never had this type of defensive potential at the center position. Alex Len needs to be a Suns player for the next 15 years.
8) No need to discuss Tucker versus McDougie.
AND...
Only if the board chooses to look at Len versus Noah as current players. Obviously Noah wins in the short term. In two years what is the winning situation if the trade was made? Noah leaves the Suns for some other team while the Bulls match any offer for the RFA Alex Len. No way is that a steal for the Suns ... nor is it homerism by Suns fans. It would be nice if folks took the big picture into account.
