Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:fishercob wrote:payitforward wrote:You're totally right. And I would have been happier too had we taken Noel. So, yeah, jangles is off.
But, there's a more important point here, and I think you are missing it. Tell me if you agree (or at least if you see what I mean):
Noel was projected to go #1 in the draft. Then his injury was revealed, and the fact of it was given some weight by GMs, so he fell a little. But the people here who wanted him anyway, who wanted to pay no attention to the injury, didn't give that injury any weight -- and, really, why should they? Fans have no skin in the game (me included: I'd have preferred to roll the dice). If he doesn't recover, what price does a fan pay? Nothing. So of course fans give the injury no weight.
But... if you run the picks w/o giving that injury any weight, then, sorry, Noel isn't available to us. Nor can you say "see, he recovered; obviously it was stupid to give the injury any weight." That's hindsight. What if he hadn't recovered?
Now, if back then you said "we should pick Alex Len; he'd be a better pick than Otto Porter," fine. No hindsight, and tho he was nicked up a bit really no injury issue either. Lets see who turns out to be the better player, Otto or Alex.
Note: that's what Hands wanted to do. He wanted Len, and if Len turns out to be a better NBA player than Porter, that'll be a feather in his cap.
But if you said "I want Noel; who cares about the injury," the fact that he's recovered doesn't make you right -- neither you nor I had any idea whatever how bad that injury was or what his recovery chances were.
Excellent point. And keep in mind that there's a difference between a player being injured and being red-flagged. We obviously have access to very little of the actual information on this, but the way the draft played out would seem to indicate the front office's concerns about Noel's healthy were more of the long term variety. If that risk was there, I understand why the Wiz passed -- they couldn't afford to get nothing out of that pick.
I loved Len based on what my eyes saw and the DC highlight video. But if I was being honest with myself, the stats on him made him seem like far from a sure thing. There were mitigating circumstances -- Maryland's terrible backcourt, for one -- but one must be extremely careful about talking themselves into a player.
After seeing Noel yesterday up close, I still have the same assessment I had before the draft. While he may have some very pronounced strengths, he's got some glaring weaknesses -- and you really have to squint to imagine him completely overcoming them. He can't shoot, he's weak, and he has limited offensive skill. Very hard to win like that unless your other skills are otherworldly and you have all the right players around you.
Porter's only problems appear to be strength, shooting range and playing time. I'd expect him to overcome all with time and be a very good player. I don't think he'll be quite the player that Kawhi Leonard has become, but think he can be better than Gordon Hayward.
As a Maryland fan, I soured on Len by draft time. If he played CONSISTENTLY like the Alex Len who faced off against Nerlens Noel and the same intense guy who destroyed Duke that one game ... that Len was a beast, worthy of going #1 overall. But his body of works suggested he'd disappear, shy away from contact, and be injured a good bit. Pass, but if he stays healthy and fills into his body; at the very least Alex projected to be a good defensive starter at C. One with great form on his jumper, good to great agility for a man his size, but lacking "brother" strength. (That would have gotten Danny Ferry fired).
fish, if Otto Porter gets BETTER than Gordon Hayward, then he's going to command a max salary.
We shall see.
I thought at draft time trade down, pick Olynyk plus future considerations. However, I was generally happy with Porter because he seems to have a very complementary game to Wall and Beal. Otto isn't a high usage guy, but he can score efficiently. He is built to fill out and be a better shooting, worse passing Nikolas Batum. Certainly a better defender than Hayward. But like Len, Otto Porter lacks strength. He's not an explosive, fast-twitch type athlete. I do think he moves well off the ball like a Reggie Miller. When Otto's three-point shot gets deadly .... YOU ARE RIGHT IMO FISH ... that guy's better than Gordon Hayward.
This was the issue with Len that you worry about, long term:
Phoenix Suns' Alex Len dealing with sore foot
I think he'll be awesome if he can stay healthy, but the foot issues for someone of that size are sadly not likely to go away.
Who cares about that crap? Iirc John was the last guy chosen when they did the Rookie-Soph game
